I don’t normally root for Duke under any circumstances — well, unless they’re playing UCLA — but if the UConn women can knock off Penn State tonight, wouldn’t it be great to see Duke join them in the Final Four? That would create a double-dose of UConn-Duke Final Four action: Huskies against Devils in the men’s semifinals on Saturday, and Huskies against Devils in the women’s semifinals on Sunday!

#2 UConn plays #1 Penn State for a spot in the Final Four tonight at 5:00 PM MST. #1 Duke plays #7 Minnesota for another Final Four spot tomorrow evening.

GO HUSKIES! And if the Huskies win, GO DUKIES!

No matter how the Living Room Times’s ninth annual men’s basketball pool turns out, one thing is certain: there will be no shortage of compelling storylines.

Will Matt Kagan re-establish the Newington High School Class of 1999’s reign of LRT pool dominance, propelled to victory by home-state favorite UConn?

Or will Ginny Zak, fresh off her victory in the golf championship at her Arizona country club, notch another triumph, this time in a competition primarily of luck rather than skill? (Zak says she made her picks mostly based on which teams’ names she liked.)

Or will the 2004 men’s pool champion be Ben Eng, a.k.a. “We Todd,” the contestant who was disqualified and then re-qualified in an unprecedented mid-pool controversy?

Will Zak follow in the footsteps of her brother, 2003 women’s pool champion Rick Boeckler, to score the second pool victory in as many years for her family?

Will Kagan become the third former NHS boys’ soccer player to win an LRT pool in the five years since the Class of 1999 graduated?

Will Eng be the second consecutive men’s pool winner who has never personally met pool administrator Brendan Loy?

Will either Eng or Zak be the first-ever men’s pool winner from outside the state of Connecticut, or will Kagan maintain the Nutmeg State’s unbeaten streak?

Will Eng be rewarded for his prediction of an all-ACC championship game? Will Zak’s faith in Oklahoma State and Duke pay off? Or will Kagan’s home-state pride be vindicated?

Potential storylines aside, the scenarios and probabilities are quite simple now. The first semifinal game, Oklahoma State vs. Georgia Tech at 6:07 PM EST Saturday, will narrow the field to two: Kagan, and either Zak (if Oklahoma State wins) or Eng (if Georgia Tech wins).

The second semifinal game, UConn vs. Duke at 8:47 PM EST Saturday, will decide the champion. Kagan will clinch victory if UConn wins; either Zak or Eng — whoever is left standing after the Oklahoma State-Georgia Tech game — will clinch the pool championship if Duke wins.

It will be the second time a UConn-Duke game has directly determined the outcome of a Living Room Times pool. In 1999, the men’s pool came down to the championship game between the Huskies and the Blue Devils, with Nathan Emerson clinching victory because of his prediction that UConn would win. (Jamie Schultz would have won if Duke had been victorious.)

This is interesting.

Thanks to a boost from TheOneRing.net (which was alerted to the story by yours truly), the “Wacky Bracket” Elite Eight battle between #6-seed Lord of the Rings and #1-seed Ronny Turiaf’s hair has gotten really close — almost Florida-close!

With 31,167 votes cast, the Hair of the Zag still leads the Hairy-footed Hobbits, 50.3% to 49.6%. (Hey, wait a minute, somebody made a rounding error there.) By my estimates, that means Turiaf’s hair is ahead by roughly 200 votes, give or take a few hanging chads.

Ladies and gentlemen, you can make a difference!!! If you haven’t yet, get over there and vote for Frodo & co.! And if you already have, find yourself a new IP address and vote again! :) A berth in the Final Four is at stake, and it’s going down to the wire! Lord of the Rings needs you!!!

I’m not sure exactly when the polls close, but I think it could be as early as tomorrow.

UPDATE: 262 new votes since last check, and the gap has narrowed substantially — it is now 50.1% to 49.8%, which translates to something in the neighborhood of a 100-vote difference, which is roughly half of what it was 90 minutes ago! This seems to indicate that late deciders are breaking heavily for Lord of the Rings; a 100-vote swing in LOTR’s favor over the course of 262 total votes would require a margin of 181 to 81 (69% to 31%). The Hobbits are on a roll… it’s “Fro-mentum”! :)

In the final game of the women’s Sweet Sixteen, #4-seed Baylor is giving #1-seed Tennessee an unexpectedly strong challenge. The Lady Bears lead the Lady Vols by 8 points with 6:30 left in the game!

A Tennessee win would mathematically eliminate Karen Cultrera — who has Baylor as her national runner-up — and Bonnie Stone. It is unclear exactly what impact a Baylor win would have, but it would certainly bust many brackets: 40 of the pool’s 62 contestants picked Tennessee to reach the Final Four, 31 have the Vols reaching the title game, and six predict they will win the championship.

UPDATE: Tennessee survives, winning the game 71-69 in an extraordinary and controversial ending that ESPN commentators called “horrible,” a “travesty,” and an “embarrassment to the women’s game.” The Lady Vols hit two clinching free throws with 0.2 seconds left after the officials blew the whistle on what appeared to be incidental contact between two players going for a loose ball.

Cultrera and Stone are eliminated from contention in the LRT pool. That leaves ten contestants still mathematically alive as the women’s tournament heads into the Elite Eight: Rich Simon, Scott Loomer, Kristy LaPlante, Kristin Vasil, Craig Stern, Brendan Loy, Danny Pilz, Matt Kagan, Conor Sullivan and Ginny Zak.

UPDATE: The pool standings have been updated. The latest Top 10:

1. Scott Loomer 266
2. Matt Kagan 264
3. Rich Simon 262
4. Jenn Castelhano 261
4. Kristy McCray 261
4. Mike Wiser 261
7. Ted Zak 259
8. Lindsey Green 257
9. Krisy LaPlante 254
10. Kristin Vasil 252
10. Ginny Zak 252

I eagerly await the new best-result scenarios. Dunno when they’ll be updated.

CORRECTION: Repeating an error from the previous two posts, this post previously stated that Todd Stigliano is still alive to win the pool. Stigliano has been eliminated; Conor Sullivan is still alive. BrendanLoy.com apologizes for the error. [Where are the fact-checkers? Heads must roll! –ed.]

Stanford upset Vanderbilt moments ago, eliminating two contestants from any chance of winning the pool — one of them, ironically, a graduate student at Stanford.

Mike Wiser had gotten this far in part because of his faith that his school’s team, the #6-seeded Cardinal, would pull an upset over #3 Oklahoma and reach the Sweet Sixteen. But he predicted that Stanford’s run would end there, and when the Cardinal knocked out #2 Vanderbilt on a three-pointer with 0.3 seconds left, it mathematically eliminated him.

In addition to being a first-year Stanford grad student, Wiser is a USC Class of 2003 alumnus, and his elimination — combined with the elimination of all USC students and alumni from any chance of winning the men’s pool — means that Craig Stern and pool administrator Brendan Loy are the only remaining hopes for the land of Troy to produce its first Living Room Times pool champion this year. (Loy won the women’s pool in 1997, but he was not affiliated with USC at that time.)

Todd Stigliano, a Newington High School Class of 1999 grad and Providence College alumnus, was also eliminated by Stanford’s victory.

Only eight contestants out of 62 in this year’s women’s pool correctly predicted Stanford’s run to the Elite Eight: Loy, Jenn Castelhano, Beth Milewski, Karen Cultrera, Andrew Long, Scott Schmidt, and Jon and Pat Caplin.

CORRECTION: This post earlier stated that Stanford’s win gave Jenn Castelhano the lead in the pool. This was based on an incorrect calculation derived from Pick 65 standings. Stanford’s win did give Castelhano a substantial boost, moving her from eleventh place into a tie for fourth, but it did not give her the lead. Scott Loomer remains in first place. BrendanLoy.com apologizes for the error.

ANOTHER CORRECTION: Compounding an error from the previous post, this post earlier stated (including in the headline!) that Conor Sullivan was eliminated. In fact, Sullivan was kept alive by Stanford’s win, while Todd Stigliano was eliminated. Again, BrendanLoy.com apologizes for the error.

With six of the Elite Eight teams decided, Scott Loomer is still ahead in The Living Room Times’s seventh annual women’s basketball pool, but 13 others also have a mathematical chance to win the pool with nine games remaining.

Loomer, the uncle of pool administrator Brendan Loy, has 256 points out of a possible 332, putting him two points ahead of Matt Kagan (254), four ahead of Rich Simon (252), and five ahead of both Mike Wiser and Kristy McCray (251).

McCray was the only contestant to predict #7 Minnesota’s upset win over #3 Boston College earlier today, but the USC Class of 2002 alumna has no chance to win the pool.

Still alive to win, in order of statistical probability, are: Simon (26%), Wiser (15%), Loomer (14%), Kristy LaPlante (10%), Kristin Vasil (6%), Craig Stern (6%), Brendan Loy (5%), Karen Cultrera (5%), Danny Pilz (5%), Matt Kagan (5%), Conor Sullivan (3%), Todd Stigliano (2%), Ginny Zak (2%), and Bonnie Stone (1%).

#2 Vanderbilt and #6 Stanford are underway at this moment, playing a close game late in the second half. A Vanderbilt win would eliminate Stigliano and Wiser; a Stanford victory would eliminate Stone and Sullivan.

UPDATE: Stanford wins on a buzzer-beater!!! Jenn Castelhano takes the lead, and Bonnie Stone and Conor Sullivan are mathematically eliminated.

CORRECTION!!!: I got that backwards…. Wiser and Stigliano are eliminated, Stone and Sullivan are saved. Sorry!

Duke gave Matt Kagan the lead in The Living Room Times’s ninth annual men’s basketball pool. Now Kagan is counting on UConn to beat Duke and give him the pool championship.

Kagan, a member of the Newington High School Class of 1999 and a graduate student at Southern New Hampshire University, surged ahead of Florida resident Paul Zak and took over first place in the pool when Duke edged Xavier on Sunday. He has 289 out of a possible 412 points through the tournament’s first 60 games.

Dennis Chow and Paul Zak are second and third with 286 and 282 points, respectively, but they have no chance to win the pool. The only threats to Kagan are Ginny Zak, who is in fourth place with 277 points, and Ben Eng, who is sixth with 271.

Duke’s win eliminated Paul Zak from contention for the pool championship. Tim Benson and Tom Greca had been eliminated earlier in the day by Kansas’s loss to Georgia Tech.

The pool champion will be decided in the national semifinals next Saturday. If UConn defeats Duke, Kagan will win the pool regardless of the outcome of the Oklahoma State-Georgia Tech game. If Duke beats UConn, Ginny Zak will win the pool if Oklahoma State defeats Georgia Tech; Ben Eng will win if Georgia Tech wins.

More to come later.

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