An auspicious start to the baseball season: the Yankees lose.

U.K. police have arrested eight people and seized a whole bunch of explosives in what The Evening Standard is calling “an Al Qaeda plot to blast London” — specifically, a “wave” of Bali-like attacks on pubs and clubs.

Meanwhile, Khalid Shaikh Mohammed has told interrogators that Al Qaeda “had been planning attacks on the Library Tower in Los Angeles and the Sears Tower in Chicago on the heels of the September 11, 2001, terror strikes.”

“Those plans were aborted mainly because of the decisive U.S. response to the New York and Washington attacks, which disrupted the terrorist organization’s plans so thoroughly that it could not proceed, according to transcripts of his conversations with interrogators.”

UPDATE: Another foiled attack, in the Philippines. Seems Al Qaeda has been busy. Wonder if they’ve got anything else planned?

I’ve crunched the numbers for the LRT women’s pool, and the scenarios are exactly as I thought.

Kristin Vasil needs Duke to reach the title game — and then to either win the title, or lose to someone other than Tennessee — so she will be mathematically eliminated if the #1 Blue Devils lose to #7 Minnesota this evening.

No one else is on the brink of elimination today. Loomer’s best-case scenario is a win by Minnesota, but even if the Dukies prevail, he will have a chance to win the pool: he would simply need for UConn to beat Duke but lose in the title game, or for Duke to beat the Huskies but lose to Tennessee for the championship.

Today’s games have no impact on Matt Kagan, Conor Sullivan and Danny Pilz, except insofar as they affect the matchups that await UConn in New Orleans. Regardless of what happens in other games, the trio will finish first if the Huskies win the national championship — simple as that.

Here is the complete rundown of the 32 remaining scenarios, grouped by today’s four possible scenarios. The national champion and runner-up are listed, which indicates the outcome of all three Final Four games. The last name of winner(s) is listed next to the winning point total (out of 477) in that scenario.

If Tennessee & Duke win today

UConn over Tenn. - Kagan, Sullivan, Pilz - 374
Tenn. over UConn - Loomer - 376
UConn over LSU - Kagan, Sullivan, Pilz - 354
LSU over UConn - Loomer 331
Duke over Tenn. - Vasil - 362
Tenn. over Duke - Loomer - 356
Duke over LSU - Vasil - 342
LSU over Duke - Vasil - 317

If Stanford & Duke win today

UConn over Stanford - Kagan, Sullivan, Pilz - 339
Stanford over UConn - Loomer - 316
UConn over LSU - Kagan, Sullivan, Pilz - 339
LSU over UConn - Loomer - 316
Duke over Stanford - Vasil - 327
Stanford over Duke - Vasil - 302
Duke over LSU - Vasil - 327
LSU over Duke - Vasil - 302

If Tennessee & Minnesota win today

UConn over Tenn. - Kagan, Sullivan, Pilz - 359
Tenn. over UConn - Loomer - 361
UConn over LSU - Kagan, Sullivan, Pilz - 339
LSU over UConn - Loomer - 316
Minn. over Tenn. - Loomer - 316
Tenn. over Minn. - Loomer - 341
Minn. over LSU - Loomer - 296
LSU over Minn. - Loomer - 296

If Stanford & Minnesota win today

UConn over Stanford - Kagan, Sullivan, Pilz - 324
Stanford over UConn - Loomer - 301
UConn over LSU - Kagan, Sullivan, Pilz - 324
LSU over UConn - Loomer - 301
Minn. over Stanford - Loomer - 281
Stanford over Minn. - Loomer - 281
Minn. over LSU - Loomer - 281
LSU over Minn. - Loomer - 281

Scott Loomer is clinging to a two-point lead in The Living Room Times’s seventh annual women’s basketball pool, just ahead of the trio who could become the first-ever co-champions in LRT history: Conor Sullivan, Matt Kagan and Danny Pilz.

The Top Twelve through 58 games, and a maximum possible 382 points, are: Loomer (281), Sullivan, Kagan and Pilz (279), Jenn Castelhano, Kristy McCray and Mike Wiser (276), Ted Zak (274), Andrew Long and Lindsey Green (272), Kristy LaPlante (269) and Kristin Vasil (267).

Subject to confirmation when I take a more detailed look at the scenarios tomorrow morning, I believe this is how it breaks down:

Among other things, this means Kagan is three UConn victories (one men’s, two women’s) away from becoming the first-ever contestant to win at least a share of both pool championships in the same year!

It also means a Duke loss in tomorrow’s Elite Eight game against Minnesota would eliminate Vasil from the pool, while Loomer and the Kagan-Pilz-Sullivan trio have already punched their cards to the final weekend regardless of what happens tomorrow.

In the event of an unprecedented first-place tie among Kagan, Pilz and Sullivan, all three would be considered champions for purposes of LRT history. For purposes of awarding the Pick 65 championship tote bag, however, there are tiebreakers based on the final score of the title game.

Pilz predicted a five-point UConn win, 60-55. Sullivan predicted a four-point UConn win, 60-56. Kagan also predicted a four-point UConn win, but his final score was 68-64.

The first tiebreaker is the margin of victory. If UConn’s margin of victory is five points or greater, Pilz would win the tiebreaker. If the margin is four points or less, Kagan and Sullivan would remain tied, and it would be necessary to resort to the second tiebreaker: total points scored in the game.

Kagan’s prediction of a 132-point combined total means that he would win the tiebreaker if the margin is four points or less and the total score is 125 or more. Sullivan, who predicted a 116-point total, would win if the margin is four points or less and the total score is 123 or less.

If the margin is four points or less and the total score is exactly 124 — that is to say, if UConn wins 64-60 or 63-61 — Kagan and Sullivan would remain tied, and the third and final tiebreaker would be invoked: the contestants’ “risk factor” for the entire tournament. Sullivan’s is higher (20.1% vs. Kagan’s 5.9%), so he would win the tiebreaker in this circumstance.

First LSU took half of USC’s football championship. Now the Tigers have ensured that Trojan Nation will have another winless year in Living Room Times basketball pools.

Pool administrator Brendan Loy — the last hope for a first-ever LRT pool win by a USC student or alumnus this year — was eliminated from his seventh annual women’s pool when #4 LSU defeated #3 Georgia moments ago. So were Ithaca grad Kristy LaPlante and Arizona resident Rich Simon.

That leaves five contestants still alive to win the pool: Loy’s uncle, Scott Loomer, and four Newington High School students and grads — Class of 1999 grad Matt Kagan, Class of 2000 grad Kristin Vasil, and freshmen Danny Pilz and Conor Sullivan.

Loomer is the statistical favorite, winning in 17 of the remaining 32 scenarios (53.1%). Kristin Vasil would win in 7 scenarios (21.9%), while in 8 scenarios (25.0%), Kagan, Pilz and Sullivan would finish tied for first.

A full breakdown of the 32 scenarios will follow, probably tomorrow morning.

USC student Craig Stern was eliminated from any chance of winning The Living Room Times women’s pool when UConn blew out Penn State tonight, leaving pool administrator Brendan Loy as the only hope for a first-ever Trojan victory in an LRT pool.

Ginny Zak, who is one of three contestants still competing for the men’s pool championship, was also eliminated in the women’s pool by UConn’s win, meaning Matt Kagan is now the only contestant still alive in both pools.

If Georgia wins its ongoing game against LSU, Kagan, Danny Pilz and Conor Sullivan will be eliminated. If LSU wins, Loy, Kristy LaPlante and Rich Simon will be eliminated instead.

At halftime, Georgia is ahead by 4.

The Husky women join the Husky men, and go to their record fifth consecutive Final Four!!!

It’s UConn 21, Penn State 13 at the half. Wow: they’re on pace to score a combined… 68 points! :)

U-C-O-N-N! UConn! UConn! UConn!

UPDATE: It’s a tie game, 22-22, between Penn State and UConn’s Barbara Turner.

Luckily, the rest of Huskies have 21 points between them, so UConn leads, 43-22, with 13 minutes left in the game.

HEH: Fan at Hartford Civic Center holding up sign: “DIANA FOR GOVERNOR.” That would be Diana Taurasi, who has 15 points and, unlike Connecticut’s current governor, no major ethical violations that we know of.

UPDATE: Penn State is on a 14-3 run since my last update, and has cut it to a 12-point game, 48-36, with 8:57 to go.

Ten contestants are still mathematically alive to win the Living Room Times women’s basketball pool heading into tonight’s Elite Eight action, but no one is safe except Scott Loomer. Anyone else could be eliminated today, and at least five people will be.

Loomer, who leads the pool with 266 points out of a possible 352, will still have a chance at the end of the day to win the pool no matter what — though his best-case scenario by far is a double upset: #2 UConn over #1 Penn State and #4 LSU over #3 Georgia. That would make Loomer the statistical favorite; other combinations of results would leave him clinging to hope by a statistical thread.

Other contestants don’t even have that assurance. Rich Simon, presently the statistical favorite to win the pool, would be eliminated if both UConn and LSU win. Brendan Loy would be knocked out of contention if LSU wins; Craig Stern would suffer that fate if UConn wins, Kristin Vasil if Penn Sate wins.

Others need both of tonight’s games to go their way in order to stay alive. Kristy LaPlante will be knocked out of contention unless UConn and Georgia both win; Ginny Zak is gone unless the opposite happens (Penn State and LSU win). Danny Pilz, Matt Kagan and Conor Sullivan — whose only hope is for a three-way first-place tie — will be eliminated unless UConn and LSU both win.

If UConn wins, there will only be five contestants with a chance of winning at the end of the day. If Penn State wins, the pool will get all the way down to a Final Four.

Here is a look at the probabilitiy standings at the end of the day under each of today’s four possible scenarios. There will be 32 scenarios left at the end of today’s action.

If Penn State and Georgia win
Rich Simon 24 (75.0%)
Brendan Loy 4 (12.5%)
Scott Loomer 3 (9.4%)
Craig Stern 3 (9.4%)
Eliminated: LaPlante, Kagan, Vasil, Pilz, Sullivan, Zak

If Penn State and LSU win
Rich Simon 17 (53.1%)
Craig Stern 7 (21.9%)
Scott Loomer 5 (15.6%)
Ginny Zak 3 (9.4%)
Eliminated: LaPlante, Loy, Kagan, Vasil, Pilz, Sullivan

If UConn and Georgia win
Kristy LaPlante 17 (53.1%)
Brendan Loy 6 (18.8%)
Scott Loomer 4 (12.5%)
Rich Simon 4 (12.5%)
Kristin Vasil 1 (3.1%)
Eliminated: Stern, Kagan, Pilz, Sullivan, Zak

If UConn and LSU win
Scott Loomer 17 (53.1%)
Danny Pilz, Matt Kagan, Conor Sullivan (tied for 1st) 8 (25.0%)
Kristin Vasil 7 (21.9%)
Eliminated: Simon, LaPlante, Stern, Loy, Zak

NOTE: I reported yesterday that Conor Sullivan was mathematically eliminated because of Stanford’s win. This is not correct. I got all mixed up, repeatedly!! It was Todd Stigliano who was eliminated, not Conor Sullivan. Sorry!

Woohoo!

I’ll be catching the early bus home today, so I won’t miss too much of the UConn-Penn State women’s game. That means I’m taking a very short lunch break — but I have to quickly announce the big news:

Lord of the Rings has advanced to the “Wacky Bracket” Final Four!!!

Thanks to a late boost from TheOneRing.net readers — as well as, I’d like to think, a few BrendanLoy.commers and BoiFromTroyers — the Hobbits mounted a stunning comeback and knocked off #1-seed Ronny Turiaf’s hair, 50.5% to 49.4%. Woohoo!!

I take personal credit for this — really! — because I tipped off TheOneRing.net to the close race, and I’m certain it was their link that made the difference.

To give you an idea of the magnitude of Lord of the Rings’s comeback, the Tolkienistas trailed the Hairy Zag by roughly 200 votes last night at 10:00 PM MST. By the time the polls closed just before noon today, Lord of the Rings had an advantage of approximately 350 votes. That’s a swing of roughly 550 votes — and only 2,113 votes were cast in that period, which means LOTR was winning by almost a 2-to-1 margin in the final 14 hours of balloting!

Wow!!!

Now, Frodo & co. face what promises to be a tough, uphill battle against the Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue, with a spot in the championship game on the line.

Can Tolkien nerds defeat horny sports fans on ESPN’s own website? If we band together, yes we can!!! (”There is always hope.” –Aragorn)

So get over to the polling place now, and vote early and often for LOTR!!! :)

Amendment IV: The right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures, shall not be violated, and no warrants shall issue, but upon probable cause, supported by oath or affirmation, and particularly describing the place to be searched, and the persons or things to be seized.

#6-seed Lord of the Rings surged ahead of #1-seed Ronny Turiaf’s hair overnight, and now the Hobbits are clinging to a narrow lead in ESPN’s “Wacky Bracket” Elite Eight, 50.1% to 49.8% (honestly, who is doing the rounding at ESPN?).

If LOTR can hold on for the victory, it appears the Fellowship will face a national-semifinal showdown with #11-seed Nick Nolte, who is handily defeating #1-seed Steroids, 53.2% to 46.7% (AGAIN with the faulty rounding!!!). The winner of that battle would then face either Jessica Simpson or the Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue for the national championship.

Anyway… GO FRODO GO!!!

UPDATE: Lord of the Rings’s lead has grown to a full percentage point, as the TheOneRing.net Effect continues. Woohoo!!! Nah nah nah nah, nah nah nah nah, hey, hey, hair, good-bye!!

I realized something last night: I don’t need to enter all the women’s tournament brackets into my pool-management software in order to do the more advanced scenario calculations that Pick 65 doesn’t allow. I only need to enter the ones that are mathematically alive!

I already know from Pick 65 which ten contestants still have a chance to win the pool. So if I manually enter those ten brackets, and then compare their results under the various remaining scenarios (128 right now, 32 by later tonight, 8 by the end of the day tomorrow), I will be able to get a completely accurate picture of who will win the pool under each circumstance.

I won’t know who finishes second, third, etc.; I’ll have to rely on Pick 65 for that. But that’s fine — I don’t care as much about that. What I really want to know is who’s still alive, and when the winner will clinch… and that, I can do. Woohoo!

I will probably do the bracket-entry on the bus ride home from work today, so expect a full scenarios & ramifications update sometime during the UConn-Penn State game.

It turns out I have money riding on Saturday’s men’s Final Four game between UConn and Duke!

I put $10 into the office pool at Intertec, where I work. Due to a certain amount of confusion and disorganization, only three people joined the pool, so the pot is only $30. But on the bright side, the low participation also means it’s easier to win! My picks in the Intertec pool are identical to my picks in the Living Room Times pool — where I’m mired in the middle of the pack — but in the Intertec pool, competing against two co-workers who also aren’t doing very well, I’m on the cusp of victory!

I’m in third (last) place right now, eight points behind the leader, but both of the other contestants have no chance of gaining any more points because both of their finalists are eliminated. I, on the other hand, have UConn reaching the final, which means I have the potential to gain 20 more points. So it all comes down to UConn vs. Duke: if the Huskies prevail, I win $30!

U-C-O-N-N! UCONN! UCONN! UCONN! :)