Drudge’s 5:10 PM EST update reaffirms what the earlier numbers suggested: “CAMPAIGN, MEDIA SOURCES TELL DRUDGE: EDWARDS LEADS IN SOUTH CAROLINA; BATTLE IN OKIE…”

Polls close at 7:00 PM Eastern (5:00 PM Mountain) in South Carolina… sounds like the media may be able to call SC for Edwards right away…

Polls close at 7:00 PM Central (8:00 Eastern, 6:00 Mountain) in Oklahoma… that race will probably go well into the night…

I will be leaving work at around 4:10 PM and should arrive home around 5:45 PM (Mountain time, of course). Arizona polls close at 7:00 PM — I’m not sure if I’ll be heading down to our local polling place or not. I’m leaning towards not.

Meanwhile, intrepid BrendanLoy.com D.C.-area correspondent Dane Lindberg is going to try to go — weather permitting — to Lieberman’s concession speech in Arlington, VA, and will audioblog from there if he is able to.

The Command Post is having severe technical difficulties this afternoon, so I recommend Drudge and NRO’s The Corner and Wonkette and InstaPundit for updates… as well as your regular “Big Media” news sources, of course.

UPDATE: Wonkette is looking for Lieberman spies. I e-mailed her and told her this website may have one, weather permitting. Stay tuned.

ANOTHER UPDATE: Too bad I can’t replace the automatic Audblog icon with something like…

VOICE OF DANE LINDBERG
BrendanLoy.com Washington Correspondent

Hehe. :)

Early exit-poll numbers from the National Review Online (via Drudge) show a major upset possibly in the making in Oklahoma… and a major disaster for Lieberman in Delaware:

AZ: Kerry 46, Clark 24, Dean 13
MO: Kerry 52, Edwards 23, Dean 10
SC: Edwards 44, Kerry 30, Sharpton 10
OK: Edwards 31, Kerry 29, Clark 28
DE: Kerry 47, Dean 14, Lieberman 11, Edwards 11

Of course, a two-point lead in unofficial, mid-afternoon exit polls probably means squat, statistically… Oklahoma is basically a three-way tie right now. But the fact that Edwards is in the thick of things is very good news for him, given that the Sooner State was, until the polls narrowed in the last couple of days, basically a Kerry-Clark race with Edwards a fairly strong but significantly behind third.

If the South Carolina numbers hold — a 14-point lead over Kerry (now that could mean something) — and if Senator Johnny can eke out the Oklahoma victory over Senator John and Wafflin’ Wes, then man oh man, this could become a race. My Kerry vs. Edwards scenario may yet happen!

Alas, barring an incredible late-afternoon and early-evening surge of Liebermania at the polls, it looks like all semblance of Joe-mentum has been derailed, and Senator Joe is very probably finished.

UPDATE: A good state-by-state breakdown, including when the polls close, here. South Carolina’s close at 7:00 PM! (That’s 5:00 PM Arizona time.) I’m taking the early bus home today, but I still probably won’t be back in time for that…

ANOTHER UPDATE: On the other hand… “Kerry 47, Dean 14, Lieberman 11, Edwards 11″… it’s a three-way tie for second!!! The people of Delaware have spoken, and once you toss out the votes for Kerry, which obviously don’t really count because… um… because he’s a haughty French-looking senator… you realize that it’s a split decision and Lieberman is still very much in this race!!! :) Heh.

MORE: Analysis from a wise Dem source: “Clark done. Dean done.” Hmm…not sure about that second part. And it’s way too early to declare that Clark will finish third in OK… he’s only three points behind in unofficial early exit poll numbers. But if he does… then yeah. And Dean won’t quit the race yet, but if he does this poorly, then yeah, he’s done, whether he knows it or not. (”Lieberman done” goes without saying, I guess.)

Okay, back to work now, I’m supposed to take a short lunch break today so I can leave on the early bus, so yeah. :)

OKAY, ONE MORE UPDATE: Take this with a grain of salt, recalling that this time last Tuesday, it looked like Lieberman was agoner, too. But here’s a report on Lieberman’s “contingency plan” to drop out:

Democrat Joe Lieberman, facing an uncertain showing in his must-win state of Delaware, was making contingency plans Tuesday to withdraw from the presidential race, according to sources close to the campaign.

While campaign staff continued to insist that Lieberman was moving on to campaign in Virginia this week, others close to the senator confirmed they have been told about a tentative 3 p.m. event in Hartford on Wednesday.

SO I LIED… WHATEVER. YET ANOTHER UPDATE: “Clark backer says campaign could be over for general,” Drudge reports. (No link or additional details yet.)

If true: Hip hip, HOORAY!

My “Software Update” window just popped up — Safari 1.2 is out!! Yay!!!

I wonder if it will fix the browser’s rather annoying MovableType bug…?

UPDATE: Nope… the bug lives. :(

As long as I’m waiting for this stupid Lotus Notes agent, which is taking forever to run, I might as well update my blog… :)

It looks like Senator Joe could be in contention for third here in Arizona, alongside Dean and Edwards (behind likely winner Kerry and likely runner-up Clark). Hopefully Joe-mentum will carry him to a third-place showing with at least 15% (the delegate threshold).

Meanwhile, he does seem to have an outside shot at winning Delaware — he’s running second there, 27% to 16% behind Kerry, but with 24% still undecided. Go, Joe, go!!!

Kerry appears poised to run away with Missouri (dammit, I wish Gephardt had endorsed Edwards). Edwards should win South Carolina, but it could be close. A very strong second for Kerry might be considered a “victory” by the media, given the regional bias, especially if he wins everywhere else.

Oklahoma is going to be the battleground state. It’s Clark 28%, Kerry 25%, Edwards 21% as of the final AMR poll. (All three have been gaining ground, as the undecided vote slips sharply.) The Zogby poll, which factors in undecided “leaners,” has it even closer: Clark 31%, Kerry 29%, Edwards 26%. Very, very interesting.

Can you feel the Joe-mentum in the air?

Above is a photo with Becky wearing a whole bunch of stickers — notably including three for Lieberman (hey, I’m her supplier, what do you expect? :) — on her sweatshirt this morning. She also has a Lieberman bumpersticker on her back.

Below, a picture of the windows of Becky’s guest room, which is technically “my” room. Again, note the rampant Joe-mentum:

More photos, including lots more pics from last night’s forum, can be viewed here!

Go, Joe, go! Go, Joe, go!

As you may have gathered from the audio posts below (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6), I got to hear both Lieberman and Dean speak at the candidate forum in Phoenix this evening. We also heard from a spokeswoman for John Edwards. I left too early to hear Kerry, Clark, and Kucinich; I needed to get home before the buses stopped running! (As it was, I got to within a few miles of home by 9:20 PM, and then ended up waiting for a cab for two hours. But that’s another story entirely…)

The forum was fun. Alas, Dean was by far the better speaker compared to Lieberman. Hollerin’ Howard was electrifying, while Senator Joe spoke well but inspired very little palpable “Joe-mentum.” He did a good job of criticizing Bush and outlining his vision for America, but he didn’t really make the case for why he’s better than the other candidates. He touched on it at the end (an electable moderate, blah blah blah), but overall, it felt more like the introductory speech for another candidate, to be followed up with, “And now, ladies and gentlemen, the man who can fulfill that vision, the next president of the United States, John [Insert Last Name Here]!” :)

Speaking of the Johns, I’m disappointed Senator Johnny didn’t show up. Everyone talks about how Edwards can captivate an audience with his stirring rhetoric, get everyone in the room on his side, etc. (Hmm… the Voice of Saruman, anyone?) Not surprisingly, his New Mexico campaign manager, who spoke in his stead, was nowhere near as exciting. She felt like a warm-up act for the real candidates — and this was especially reinforced when Dean came out next, to rousing response and many loud cheers throughout his speech. He may be liberal and he may be angry and he may be a little crazy, but YEE-HAW!, that man can get a crowd going. YEAAAARRRHHH!!!!! :)

The most fun part for me — aside from hearing my candidate speak, of course — was interacting with the various local campaign staff and assorted hangers-on, as well as miscellaneous supporters, of the various candidates. I exchanged pleasantries with the Lieberman folks (Janice laughed and smiled when she saw me, and confessed that she had not read my response to her comment on my site), and discussed strategy with the Edwards guy and a Kerry guy (both of whom insisted that their guy is the only one who can possibly beat Bush).

I lied to an enthusiastic Dean girl that, sure, I would consider voting for Hollerin’ Howard if it comes down to Dean vs. Kerry. :) Oh, and it was during my chat with the Edwards guy that my cell phone received the CNN Breaking News alert about the Senate ricin. I read it aloud, and he said something like, “Oh…wow.”

Getting back to Senator Joe’s people, they informed me that, absolutely, they’re going to win Delaware… it’s a lock!! Hmm. No comment. :)

Notwithstanding his staffers’ faith in Senator Joe, I picked up two Kerry stickers and an Edwards sticker — you know, thinking ahead to possible future allegiances. :) I also picked up an abandoned Dean sticker that someone had dropped at the bottom of the escalator. So my collection of 2004 campaign paraphernalia is growing. See cell-phone photo-post:

The least fun part of the evening was the endless parade of boring, self-congratulatory speakers who came on stage before any of the candidates did, all promoting the organization that was putting on this event, the Arizona branch of the League of United Latin American Citizens. This is, in my experience, an epidemic among private groups putting on events for the public: they feel the need to loudly, repeatedly, annoyingly trump their own wonderfulness, thank everyone who helped “make this event possible” (from the chapter president to corporate sponsors to the secretary’s wife’s dog), and express over and over their pride that this “wonderful night” has been allowed to happen — all before anything has actually happened. Memo to groups putting on events: no one cares about that sh*t. Let the event speak for itself. People didn’t come to hear you toot your own horn; they came to hear presidential candidates speak. Get to the speakers sooner, and people will like your organization a heck of a lot more.

Back to Lieberman for a second. He was very funny when talking about the Arizona Republic, which co-sponsored the forum. In thanking the various sponsors, he paused on the Republic — which, of course, endorsed him — and lavished praised on the paper, saying it should win Pulitzer Prizes and such. Heh. That was a highlight — that, and when he got the expected applause upon noting that “a lot of people, including me, think I won the vice presidency in 2000.”

A lowlight came near the end, when I believe he messed up the governor’s name. He had already thanked and praised AZ Gov. Janet Napolitano (and indeed, compared himself to her, as a moderate who can win a state like Arizona), but then a few minutes later he made some reference to something that “your great governor” had done, and the name he mentioned was definitely not Janet Napolitano — it was some man, I can’t remember who now, but I’m guessing perhaps it was the governor of New Mexico, where Joe had just been. Anyway, I can’t personally fault Lieberman for this; I’m amazed that he (and all the other candidates) can remember as many trivial facts and miscellaneous names as they do; it’s an incredible feat of memorization, really. But politically, it’s obviously a major boo-boo to mess up the name of the governor of the state that you’re in. Especially when she’s in the room, and you just compared yourself to her. :)

Well anyway. I should go to bed now. Tomorrow is Primary Day, of course, and in the morning I will try to post some more pictures from tonight’s event. I will undoubtedly provide an update or two from work, as Drudge and others report initial results (”Edwards leads Janet Jackson’s breast in early S.C. returns, 33% to 30%…”), and then in the evening, as the results come in, I will be manning both this site and the Command Post, as I did last Tuesday. I may or may not provide live coverage from our local Mesa polling place at 8:00 PM — we shall see.

Go Joe Go! Win Delaware!

Go Johnny Go! Win Oklahoma!

Down with Wafflin’ Wes! Down with Hollerin’ Howard!

Beat the Bruins!!! (oh wait, sorry, wrong sport)

GO SENATOR JOE! GO SENATOR JOE! :)

UPDATE: More pictures here!