John Kerry’s brother Cameron is in Dixville Notch, live on C-SPAN. Just over 15 minutes till the vote!

UPDATE, 11:45 PM EST: In response to a question about how receptive the overwhelmingly Republican town has been to Kerry’s message, Cameron Kerry says he has met some Republicans in Dixville Notch who wish they could vote for his brother tonight.

26 eligble voters; 7 have already voted absentee; 19 to vote at midnight, according to C-SPAN.

11:46: Wesley Clark himself is in Dixville Notch! Heh.

11:50: They are now instructing the voters to mark their ballots, to turn them in at midnight.

They just opened the “magic box” and revealed to everyone that it’s empty. Required by law, they said.

11:53: As I mentioned earlier, this is quite possibly the silliest tradition in American politics. And that’s saying something. :)

What would happen if some rebellious teenager were to turn 18, register to vote, and decide he or she doesn’t want to vote at midnight? Or what is some local townsperson got drunk and forgot to show up? They wouldn’t be able to close the polls on time! The errant voter would be tarred and feathered! :)

11:55: Hmm… their clock seems to be a bit ahead of mine. They’re about to cast their votes!

11:56: One minute! (so they say)

11:57: It’s midnight according to the moderator’s watch, and they’re voting in Dixville Notch!!!

(Hmm… I think he set his watch ahead so they could beat Hart’s Location…)

12:00 AM: Now it’s midnight by my clock too. All registered voters have voted! They’re closing the polls! YAY!!! :)

12:03: Everyone has been moved out to an adjacent room while the votes are counted. C-SPAN’s audio is cutting in and out.

12:06: I wonder if Lieberman stands a chance of doing well in Dixville Notch because he’s the most conservative candidate and the town is very Republican? Hmm… GO JOE GO!!! GO JOE GO!!!

12:10: Dean 1 vote, Lieberman 1 vote (So much for that theory!), Edwards 2, Kerry 3… CLARK WINS! Clark 8 votes!!!

12:15: Well, the Dixville Notch winner hasn’t won a contested New Hampshire primary since 1988, so this may or may not be good news for General Clark. :)

Just to review: Clark 8, Kerry 3, Edwards 2, Dean 1, Lieberman 1. On the Republican side, Bush got 11 votes.

I wonder how things went in Hart’s Location?

I swear I saw Clark there in the flesh before, but C-SPAN hasn’t showed him since… oh, there he is! Becky says, “Well, no wonder he won.” Indeed. Show up, and the locals will support you. :)

12:22: In Hart’s Location, 30 registered voters… Bush, 13 votes. 1 vote for Vincent Hamm, 2 votes for Edwards, 3 votes for Dean, 5 votes for Kerry, 6 votes for Clark. Another win for Clark!

FINAL UPDATE, 12:35 AM EST / 10:35 PM MST: Newsday’s website has an AP article about Dixville & Hart online.

The combined totals from Dixville Notch and Hart’s Location:
Wesley Clark 14
John Kerry 8
John Edwards 4
Howard Dean 4
Joe Lieberman 1
Vincent Hamm 1

It’s reassuring to know that Senator Joe is in such good company. :)

Ah, well, that bit of silliness is over. One wonders how much time, energy, and money Clark used to get those 14 votes. But then again, maybe it will give him a momentum boost, with the media repeating over and over during the day tomorrow, “Wesley Clark has the early lead.” Presumably that’s the strategy.

Personally, I doubt it will work. :) My statewide predictions? Kerry, Dean, Edwards, Lieberman, Clark. Yes, that’s right, Senator Joe beats General Wes, Dixville & Hart notwithstanding.

I found an excellent PDF file with information about Dixville Notch. Turns out the town has 19 registered voters, 10 of whom are Republicans and 9 of whom are independents. So I guess that means we have a maximum possible vote tally of 9 tonight? In 2000, six voters cast ballots on the Democratic side. (UPDATE: According to this article, there may be eleven or more eligible voters. Woohoo!)

So is Dixville Notch really a bellwether for the rest of New Hampshire? Well, let’s review the last few contested races…

2000 Republican
Bush 12, McCain 10, Forbes 1
WRONG: McCain won N.H.

2000 Democratic
Bradley 4, Gore 2
WRONG: Gore won N.H.

1996 Republican
Dole 11, Alexander 5, Buchanan 2, Forbes 1, Lugar 1
WRONG: Buchanan won N.H.

1992 Democratic
Clinton 3, Tsongas 1
WRONG: Tsongas won N.H.

1988 Democratic
Gephardt 4, Simon 3
WRONG: Dukakis won N.H.

1988 Republican
Bush 11, Dole 6, Kemp 5, Haig 2, DuPont 2, Robertson 1
RIGHT! Bush won N.H.

So yeah, Dixville Notch hasn’t correctly predicted the outcome of a New Hampshire primary that didn’t involve an incumbent since 1988! (For the record, the Notch was also wrong in the 1984 Democratic primary, too.)

On the other hand, Dixville Notch often seems to get the national result right when New Hampshire doesn’t: Bush in 2000, Dole in ‘96, Clinton in ‘92.

But whatever. It’s a grand tradition regardless, and God knows I’ll be watching C-SPAN with intense interest roughly two hours from now. :)

(Yeah, yeah, Hart’s Location also votes at midnight. But we all know they’re just a bunch of Dixville Notch wannabes.)

UPDATE: On the other hand, Hart’s Location was a better state bellwether last year, voting 9 to 5 for McCain over Bush. (If I’m reading these numbers right, nobody voted for either Gore or Bradley.) But in 1996, it was Alexander 8, Buchanan 3, Dole 3, Forbes 3 — I guess the folks up in Hart’s Location like guys with lumberjack shirts! In 1992, it was Tsongas 3, Brown 2, Clinton 1… but I don’t think they were doing the midnight voting thing back then.

ANOTHER UPDATE: C-SPAN’s Dixville Notch coverage begins at 11:45 PM Eastern time.

In the spirit of lyric-blogging, and in honor of tomorrow’s first-in-the-nation New Hampshire primary, BrendanLoy.com tonight proudly presents the lyrics of two extremely silly songs about the Granite State, both of which happen to be included in my diverse (and some would say bizarre) MP3 collection.

The first song is by John Linnell — of They Might Be Giants fame — from his album “State Songs,” a collection of utterly absurd “anthems” for various states. (My personal favorite is “Maine,” whose chorus includes the lines: “Maine is the devil you know / Maine is the heaven below / Maine at the top of the chart / Has crushed my evil heart.” But I digress.) Linnell’s song for New Hampshire is characteristically funny in that anarchic TMBG way, and it goes a little something like this:

Here I stand outside the window
Longing to be asked inside
Until someone sees
Being polite
Though scared to death
They let me in

No one likes New Hampshire man.

Heh. Alas, if only Howard Dean were from New Hampshire instead of Vermont, we could have great fun applying those last few lines to him… :)

Our second Granite State song of the day comes from a live recording of a group called “4 Under Par” competing in some sort of a capella contest. It’s called “A Town in Old New Hampshire,” and I would like to specifically dedicate this song to Dixville Notch, the tiny hamlet and alleged bellwether whose votes will be counted just a few hours from now — shortly after midnight local time — in one of single silliest traditions in all of American democracy. So here’s to you, Dixville Notch…

I’ve travelled everywhere
Seen all there is to see
(To see)
But here’s a song
Of just one place
I’m sure you will agree

Who cares?

Hooray for the great state of New Hampshire! :) Dixville Notch votes in less than 2 1/2 hours…

The impeachment process against Governor Rowland — whose approval rating has dropped to Nixonesque levels — is officially underway.

Meanwhile, Rowland, who emphasized in his Jan. 7 apology that the media is not to blame for his problems, is now blaming the media for his problems.

In a related story, yesterday the Connecticut Political Watch reported that “Today The New York Times and Connecticut Post profile [Lt. Governor Jodi] Rell, stopping just short of recommending her to the Vatican for sainthood.” Heh.

Okay, lunch-break over, back to work now.

For today’s lunch-break update, it’s time for some Dave Barry witticisms. For starters, we have this fascinating observation about General Clark:

Having candidates do demeaning things that have nothing to do with their qualifications for being president is a key part of our election process. Another example is the pancake breakfast, where candidates must flip pancakes while being closely scrutinized by note-scribbling news media.

A veteran journalist told me that, of the Democratic candidates, Howard Dean is by far the best pancake flipper. The worst is Gen. Wesley Clark. “He doesn’t flip at all!” the journalist told me, genuinely outraged. “He just slides the pancakes around!”

Heh. Also:

Every major candidate travels inside a surrounding clot of advisors, lackeys, media, etc. If you stand anywhere in Manchester for 15 minutes, one of these things will go past. Often the clot is so dense that you can’t see the candidate: You just see this mass of people moving briskly along. Anybody could be inside. Osama bin Laden could be running around New Hampshire inside a candidate clot right now, undetected. …

FACT: No candidate with a celebrity RV containing stars from both “Party of Five” and “Real World New Orleans” has ever lost the New Hampshire primary.

Hehe. Heh heh heh.

In other news… Dennis Kucinich predicts the Democratic Convention will be deadlocked — and Dennis Kucinich is the perfect man to unite the party. :)

Joe Lieberman finishes a strong, surprising third in New Hampshire. Wesley Clark finishes a distant, embarassing, devastating fifth. Clark, suddenly looking like a big-time loser with negative momentum, plummets in the national polls; pundits begin to speculate on whether he will drop out of the race. Meanwhile, Lieberman’s candidacy catches fire (he’s the Comeback Kvetch!). So Senator Joe, seeing his opportunity, approaches the general and says, “If you drop out and endorse me, I’ll pick you as my V.P. if I win the nomination.” The deal is struck, and made public three days before the Feb. 3 primaries. Lieberman grabs the media spotlight, big-time, and now he has the benefit of Clark’s resources on the ground, plus support from a lot the general’s former backers. Joe rides the endorsement to a triumphant Feb. 3, winning several primaries en route to perhaps the greatest comeback nomination in history. Lieberman-Clark defeats Bush-Cheney in November… :)

Josh Marshall, blogging from New Hampshire, says, “What the veteran journalists often say is that in the last couple days, you watch the size and charge of the crowds more than the polls. That�s where the story is told.” If that’s true, then this is very good news for Lieberman:

Presidential hopeful Joe Lieberman drew what may have been his largest crowd yet, surprising campaign organizers who planned for 200 and got more than 600 people for their city hall meeting Saturday night.

Lieberman packed one room, and left hundreds of supporters spilling down the staircase and spreading over two landings in city hall.

On the other hand, the latest American Research Group poll is far less positive, showing Lieberman a weak fifth with 5% in New Hampshire — a far cry from his third-place 12% in the Gallup poll. And ARG polls in the Feb. 2 states say Joe’s not doing too well there, either: 10% in Oklahoma, 7% in Arizona, 5% in South Carolina. Well, whatever, maybe the ARG has an anti-Joe bias. You gotta believe… :)

Hmm… news flash: it may snow in New Hampshire on Tuesday. This is said to be potentially bad for Lieberman. C’mon G-d, hold off the snowstorm, this is one of your Chosen People we’re talking about here! :)

Back to Josh Marshall for a second. It seems he agrees with me about the potential for a second-place “victory” by Howard “the comeback doc” Dean:

Earlier today, I was wondering just where he’d have to place on Tuesday to win in the media’s expectations game. And it seemed to me that if Dean could manage a convincing second — that is, with real distance between him and the third place finisher — that he could play the comeback kid angle. He could argue, with some merit, that he took a huge hit, fell dramatically in the polls but was then able to fight back into contention by corralling a lot of doubting supporters back into the fold.

On the other hand:

The problem for Dean is that none of the February 3rd contests strike me as natural Dean states — with the possible exception of New Mexico. And a victory for Kerry in New Hamsphire would still mean that Dean had failed to win in two states which seem to play heavily to his strengths.

Dean is doing very poorly, according to ARG, in the big three Feb. 3 states: fourth (10%) in Arizona, where he once led; fifth (9%) in South Carolina — behind Sharpton! — and fifth (8%) in Oklahoma, behind our man Senator Joe. (He trails Kerry, Edwards, and Clark in all three states.)

One last piece of good news for the Lieberman camp, before I go to bed: a few minutes ago, I found my “Far Vos Nisht? Lieberman 2004″ button. So I’ll get a chance to do a bit of personal campaigning for Joe, here in crucial Arizona. :)

The Return of the King soundtrack just won Best Score at the Golden Globes! YAY!!!

Well, “just won” is a relative term; the Mountain Time Zone’s feed is actually one hour delayed from the East Coast’s live feed. So really, this happened an hour ago… and by now, it’s probably almost time for the big awards — Best Director and Best Picture — to be handed out.

But I want to be surprised, dammit! :) So I’m not looking at the Internet coverage, and I’m trying really hard not to “stumble” across anything that would mention the later awards…

Anyway, Best Song up next!

UPDATE: 2 for 2!!! “Into the West” from ROTK wins Best Original Song!

UPDATE, 8:42 PM MST: Seeing as how I don’t really care about the various awards that will be handed out between now and Best Director, I have muted the TV, and I am now listening to “Into the West” on my headphones. :)

UPDATE, 9:21 PM MST: PETER JACKSON WINS BEST DIRECTOR!!!

One more award — the biggie, Best Picture — and it’ll be a sweep for Return of the King!

By the way, if you experienced any problems commenting in the last 15 or 20 minutes, or noticed that this Peter Jackson update was a bit tardy (even by my “delayed” standards), it’s because I briefly destroyed my blog while attempting to upgrade my version of MovableType! However, all is well now, I think. :)

GO, FRODO, GO!!!!!!

UPDATE: Hmm. If Lord of the Rings wins Best Picture — not just tonight, but next month at the Oscars — and if Joe Lieberman starts winning some primaries, the right-hand column of my homepage might become really exclamatory. Along with “NATIONAL CHAMPIONS!” above the USC link, I might have to reintroduce the Lord of the Rings link with the heading “BEST PICTURE!,” and then, above the Lieberman link, I might add the heading “FUTURE PRESIDENT!” :)

UPDATE, 9:33 PM MST: Seeing as how it’s now past 11:30 PM on the East Coast, and thus I am quite certain the Best Picture award has been handed out and the show wrapped up by now, I have entered full ignore-the-world mode: I’m not looking at any websites except my own, I’m not checking my e-mail, and I’m listening to the ROTK soundtrack on my headphones — with the volume way up — to avert the slight possibility that Becky might see something online, on her computer, and blurt out the result, thus ruining the surprise for me. Meanwhile I have the TV on, of course, and will take off my headphones as soon as it becomes evident that Best Picture is about to be handed out. Yes, I am a little obsessed… :)

UPDATE, 9:47 PM MST: “Lost in Translation” won Best Picture (Musical/Comedy). Best Picture (Drama) is up next…

UPDATE, 9:52 PM MST: RETURN OF THE KING WINS!!!!!!!!!!! YAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

UPDATE, 10:00 PM MST: ROTK goes 4 for 4!!! A nice touch by Peter Jackson, giving J.R.R. Tolkien much-deserved props.

Here’s CNN’s Golden Globes article. And here’s a photo from Yahoo:

32 1/2 hours till the Oscar nominations!!!

FINAL UPDATE: TheOneRing.net has more Golden Globe photos.

The fallout from the resignation of Bush’s chief WMD inspector, David Kay, has begun.