And now, for part two of today’s lunch-break update, something a little more serious: horse-race political analysis! :)

As predicted by my dad, the search for an “anti-Dean” has given way to the search for an “anti-Kerry.” And the front-runner in the race to become the anti-Kerry is… Dean. At least, that’s what he hopes. Hollerin’ Howard has pulled all his TV ads from next week’s primary states, in hopes of emerging as the “alternative” candidate in the weeks that follow. It’s a fascinating strategy:

Dean is gambling that he can pick up delegates with second- and third-place finishes while rivals John Edwards and Wesley Clark spend themselves out of the race.

Officials hope that Dean emerges later in February as an alternative to front-runner John Kerry and engages in “guerrilla warfare” until he wins the nomination or is mathematically eliminated.

Guerrilla warfare, eh? Hmm. The war analogies continue, from the candidate’s own mouth:

“I think you are going to see a leaner, meaner organization,” Dean told reporters Wednesday night. “We had geared up for what we thought would be a front-runner’s campaign. It’s not going to be a front-runner’s campaign. It’s going to be a long, long war of attrition.”

Sounds like a quagmire to me. As the writer points out, “Dean runs the risk of falling off the political map with seven defeats Tuesday.”

Personally, I hope that’s exactly what happens. I would like to see the Screamin’ Doctor disappear — his thin, high cry never to be heard again in that age of this world — and, instead of a Kerry-Dean race, we get a Kerry-Edwards race. I think that would be the best possible scenario (short of a miracle Lieberman comeback). I don’t know who I’d vote for, but I’d like to see them duke it out.

My feeling is that, right now, Kerry is the better candidate, but Edwards has a lot more potential to improve, perhaps vastly improve, whereas Kerry is Kerry; what you see is what you get, and it’s all you’re gonna get. And it’s okay — much better than Dean or Clark — but it’s probably not good enough to beat Bush.

Edwards isn’t nearly good enough yet, but I think he might be good enough if we give him time. He needs to be battle-tested first, though, and that’s exactly what a two-man race with Kerry could potentially do.

Of course, to produce a two-man race, Clark also needs to be dispensed with. I think that can happen this Tuesday. Edwards needs to win South Carolina and — this is the big one — Oklahoma. Nobody’s talking about the Sooner State; it’s overshadowed by the Palmetto State. But from what I’ve read, it sounds like Oklahoma is shaping up as an Edwards vs. Clark battle, and that means it’s an opportunity for the senator from North Carolina to deliver a knockout punch to the general from Arkansas. If Edwards can win Oklahoma, I think it might be all over for Clark. (Better yet, Edwards wins, Kerry — who is investing heavily in Oklahoma — finishes second, and Clark finishes third. That would surely doom that good general.)

My ideal scenario for next Tuesday: Edwards wins South Carolina, Oklahoma, and perhaps one more state (Missouri?); Kerry wins the rest. Clark and Lieberman drop out. (Okay, this isn’t really my ideal scenario. In my ideal scenario, Lieberman wins all seven states and is swept into the White House by “Joe-mentum.” But we’re talking about the real world here. :) Dean’s supporters are totally demoralized by seven more losses; his money dries up, his campaign derails, and he’s out of the race by the middle of the month. And we get our Kerry vs. Edwards battle. (At which point, hopefully the people organizing the debates would have the good sense to disinvite Sharpton and Kucinich, who, while entertaining, are becoming an irritating distraction from the candidates with a legitimate chance to become president of something other than, say, Mars or Neptune.)

In regard to state-by-state strategies, the Command Post has a good summary of how the candidates are spending their advertising money. South Carolina, Oklahoma and New Mexico are all attracting major investments from Kerry, Edwards, and Clark — we’re talking $400,000 to $500,000 per candidate in those three states combined.

Edwards is also spending big in Missouri (which, “momentum” and “perceptions” aside, happens to be the state with the most delegates at stake next week), hoping to pick up Gephardt’s “beer-track” Democrats. Senator John has spent $120,000 there, while the other Senator John — Kerry, the candidate of wine and whine :) — has spent $80,000.

It’s all Kerry and Clark here in Arizona: “$147,000 and $203,000, respectively.” And finally, “Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman (Conn.), who finished fifth in New Hampshire, has made much smaller buys in Arizona, Oklahoma and South Carolina, totaling $31,000.” Hmm. Not sure how much “Joe-mentum” that will produce.

Political Wire, incidentally, has a good list of links on “why Joe must go.” And while the Arizona Republic is urging voters here to go down with the ship, the Hartford Courant wants Connecticut’s favorite son to return to port.

After work today, or perhaps during lunch tomorrow, I think I might take a walk down to Lieberman’s Arizona headquarters, which is about eight blocks north of where I work. I’d like to pick up some official campaign paraphernalia… you know, before they become collector’s items. :)

Speaking of Lieberman — and bringing this post full-circle — Mickey Kaus believes Senator Joe might be the anti-Kerry. Not that he’ll beat Kerry. But Kaus thinks the calm, respectable, morally upright Lieberman might just become an attack dog:

Why is Lieberman staying in the race? Maybe he realizes there is one, final kamikaze-like service he can perform for his country–namely, to be the expendable candidate who goes negative on Kerry. … It’s not as if some of the DLC-types who are sympathetic to Lieberman also have ties to Edwards. … Oh, wait!

Heh. Kaus adds, in response to the obvious rebuttal (”If Lieberman wouldn’t be Al Gore’s attack dog in the 2000 race, why would he be John Edwards’”) that it’s different now “because in 2000 he could plausibly think he had a future as a presidential candidate to safeguard.” Whereas now… well, let us just say, “Hillary.”

I doubt Kaus’s scenario will unfold. Lieberman’s got plenty of dogs on his side (Hi Dad :), but he ain’t no attack dog. It’s not in his nature. But hey, you never know. He did take a bit of a shot at Kerry the other night on CNN — said he wasn’t a “mainstream” Democrat — albeit in response to Wolf Blitzer’s prodding.

(On an unrelated note, my dad will be pleased to note that Kaus also asks rhetorically, “Psst: President Bush got 87% of the vote in the Republican primary. Isn’t that not so good?”)

Part 1 of today’s lunch-break update is a selection of headlines and blog links, presented in a style that’s.. well… let’s just call it an homage to Best of the Web…

MARCH BADNESS: ACC, SEC rule; everyone else sucks

IT ALWAYS GOES BACK TO IRELAND: David Trimble says “human-rights” groups promote terrorism

ROLLIN’, ROLLIN’, ROLLIN’: Off with another BBC head

AND HE’S ALREADY POLLING AHEAD OF LIEBERMAN: Hawkish soldier-blogger reveals he’s a Democrat

FAT CHANCE: George Bush wants my mom’s vote

NAAAAARRRHH: Iraqi blogger: Dean is wrong about Iraq

IN OTHER NEWS, JAR-JAR BINKS ENDORSED KUCINICH: Giant statue of Yoda (a.k.a. Little Green Dude) stolen

BUT BRITNEY SPEARS’S ANNULLED MARRIAGE IS OKAY: Gays denied basic human right; Jeb Bush “pleased”

EVEN FROM UP THERE, LIEBERMAN LOOKS DOOMED: Spirit sends first picture from Mars in a week

WHAT WOULD WE DO WITHOUT BRADY?: Brady Says Patriots Must Target the End Zone

:)

The Arizona Republic has endorsed Joe Lieberman! Yaaay!

Senator Joe is supposed to be in the Phoenix area this weekend, according to the East Valley Tribune. But there are no details on his website yet. I hope to attend at least one or two candidate events in the next week, so I can report and photo-blog on them, here and on the Command Post.

UPDATE: Here’s an article (published yesterday) about upcoming candidate visits to Arizona. Apparently Ted Kennedy will be in town tomorrow, on behalf of John Kerry. Howard Dean plans a “massive rally” in Phoenix on Saturday. Also, the Tribune said Kerry himself will be here Monday… as will Dennis Kucinich, whoop-dee-do. :)

ANOTHER UPDATE: Dean tentatively plans to be in Phoenix at 9:00 AM Saturday, according to this blurb for the “Dean for Arizona” website. Hmm… is it worth getting up that early? Will Becky be willing to go?

Okay, 7:58 AM, gotta start working now…

LUNCHTIME UPDATE: Alas, the place where Ted Kennedy will be visiting tomorrow at 10:45 AM is nine miles away from where I work. If it were a little closer, I’d take an early lunch break and go see him. Oh, well.

What is Joe Lieberman thinking? This article seeks to answer that question.