“Vote for me and I’ll poke George Bush’s eye out!”

[whispering] “Yarrh.”

“I’m four years old!”

“Arrrr. I’m a tough guy. Arrrr.”

“WE WON!!! … Wait, you mean this isn’t golf?”

:)

A tip of the hat to my dad for sending along this Union Leader article, including the following fascinating tidbit, which helps square Drudge’s earlier assertion that Lieberman would drop out (or at least, that sources said he would “suspend” his campaign) with Senator Joe’s boisterous, overly optimistic fifth-place-victory speech a few hours later:

Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut, sagging to fifth place, rejected advice from some advisers to abandon his bid.

As I just wrote on the Command Post, one wonders whether Lieberman’s advisers will eventually bring their candidate back to his senses, or at least help him with his math. We love you, Joe, but 9 percent is not an impressive finish… and you didn’t tie for third place…

Speaking of the Command Post, here are my contributions from today, my first-ever day manning the Post (all times Eastern): 3:14 PM, 3:21 PM, 6:26 PM, 8:48 PM, 8:58 PM, 9:10 PM, 9:16 PM, 9:32 PM, 9:57 PM, 10:13 PM, 10:41 PM, 11:04 PM.

Yep. I was busy. :) My BrendanLoy.com simulblog is, of course, below.

Elsewhere in the blogosphere, here is a pretty good list of state polls for upcoming primaries. Some are out of date, but some are quite recent, and one presumes more new results will be added as time goes on. The source and date is prominently displayed, so you can judge for yourself; and where possible, multiple recent polls are averaged together to produce an overall figure.

UPDATE: Wonkette observes: “Guess that ‘Joementum’ was a figment of someone’s Joe-magination.” Heh.

I’m finally home.

Kerry 39%
Dean 25%
Edwards 13%
Clark 12%
Lieberman 9%

33% of precincts reporting.

UPDATE, 6:48 PM MST: “We could end up next week where everybody wins, and the race goes on and on.” –Bill Schneider, noting that Clark is the front-runner in OK, Edwards in SC, Kerry in MO, and Dean thinks he can win AZ and Lieberman possibly DE.

UPDATE, 6:51 PM MST: CNN is saying that Kerry will win by about 10%. Sounds like this is a combined analysis of the exit-poll numbers compared to the precincts now reporting.

I’m simultaneously posting here and on the Command Post.

UPDATE, 6:58 PM MST: CNN clarifies: Kerry will win by at least 10 percent.

UPDATE, 7:00 PM MST: Jeff Greenfield points out that for once, the Democrats are being practical, uniting around someone they feel can win, instead of allowing themselves to be divided every which way.

American Idol is starting now. Again, I’m watching CNN in the bedroom and Becky is watching Idol in the living room.

UPDATE, 7:07 PM MST: Dean is on Larry King Live. Says he feels “good.” “We came in a solid second, it looks like, and that’s good… I think we did what we needed to do.”

“This is going to be a discussion about how much change we need in Washington. … I think the only way to beat George Bush is going to be to have someone come in from outside Washington…”

“I’m still determined to change the country, and we have a lot of people out there who still want real change in America.”

Says that’s not a “swipe” at Kerry.

UPDATE, 7:11 PM: Says he doesn’t need to win 2 or 3 states next week… just needs to maintain his support, blah blah blah. “We’re going to change this country, one way or the other.” Hmm… again, a third-party rallying cry??

UPDATE, 7:15 PM: I love CNN’s election music!!! It makes me all happy. :)

UPDATE, 7:22 PM: It’s a battle for third. Clark 13,736, Edwards 13,665, with 56% reporting, according to CNN.

Edwards acknowledges South Carolina is a must-win, but also says, “This process is going to go on a while. … This is a long-term campaign, and I intend to be the nominee.”

In response to Larry King’s vice presidential badgering, he says, “I’m not interested in being vice president. I’m interested entirely in being president.”

Wolf Blitzer says 200,000 people voted, a Democratic New Hampshire primary record.

UPDATE, 7:25 PM: Presumably both Clark and Edwards stay in the race. Next week should pick one of them off. At least, I hope so. I think a three-man race will be much easier to follow, more voter-friendly.

“We expected it to be closer” based on exit polls alone, Wolf Blitzer says.

UPDATE, 7:28 PM: A great exchange between Wolf Blitzer and Bob Dole on Larry King Live…

BLITZER: “An earlier poll showed John Kerry ahead of George Bush, 49 percent to 46 percent. What do you make of that, Senator Dole?”

DOLE: “Not much.”

Heh.

Dole says Lieberman should probably quit the race now, but it’s his decision. Says it’s tough to know when to leave. “In 1988, I stayed too long.”

UPDATE, 7:31 PM: Kerry is about to speak…

UPDATE, 7:33 PM: Clark and Kerry are going to speak at the same time. “Dueling speeches,” says Larry King. But of course CNN will carry Kerry’s. (Carry Kerry… heh heh…)

UPDATE, 7:35 PM: Starts his speech the same way as he did in Iowa… “I… love…. [insert state’s name here]!”

“I love New Hampshire. And… I love Iowa, too! And I hope, with your help, to have the blessing and the opportunity to love a lot of other states in the days to come.”

Heh.

UPDATE, 7:38 PM: “I have only just begin to fight,” blah blah.

Hmm….. so far this is, like, the exact same speech as in Iowa. “Don’t let the door hit you on the way out,” etc.

UPDATE, 7:40 PM: “If I am president, I pledge…” –Kerry
“When! When! When! When! When!” –crowd
“When I am president…” –Kerry

UPDATE, 7:44 PM: “Stand with us, and we will build a prosperity [Can one really “build a prosperity”? –ed.] where Americans are not just working for the economy, but the economy is working for Americans. A prosperity where we will reduce the poverty of millions rather than reducing the taxes of millionaires.” Big line against “Benedict Arnold CEOs” who take jobs overseas “and stick Americans with the bill.”

UPDATE, 7:46 PM: Kerry, Edwards, and Clark are all speaking simultaneously.

So far no one has screamed.

Fox is showing Clark; CNN has cut to Edwards.

“We’re going to see great victories on Feb. 3.” –Edwards

UPDATE, 7:49 PM: Personally, I would like to see Dean totally self-destruct next week… not win anywhere, finish third or worse in a bunch of places… and Clark fall apart too… so it will just be Kerry vs. Edwards. That would be a good battle.

UPDATE, 7:51 PM: My dad says Kerry’s “I love New Hampshire. And I love Iowa, too” is a clear inside reference to his fellow Massachusetts senator Ted Kennedy’s statement on a primary day in 1980, after beating Jimmy Carter in two states, “I LOVE NEW YORK! And uh, I love, uh, Connecticut, too.” Heh.

UPDATE, 7:54 PM: Lieberman now about to speak. Looks pretty triumphant for a fifth-place finish.

UPDATE, 8:10 PM: “The people of New Hampshire have allowed our campaign to regain its momentum, and I am very grateful. The people of New Hampshire have allowed all of you to hope again that we’re going to have real change in America. For those of you that believe that America needs real change… stand with us to the very end, which is January 20, 2005.”

“The only way to beat George Bush is to stand up to him all the time, not just when it’s convenient, not just some of the time.” Hmm… what if George Bush is occasionally right? Eh, I guess we still have to stand up to him, right Howard? All the time. A revealing quote from Dr. Dean, there.

UPDATE, 8:13 PM: “This time, we can have a president who really is a uniter, not a divider, and we will.” Good line. Doesn’t apply to Howard Dean.

UPDATE, 8:17 PM: Dean is getting more airtime than the other candidates because he waited till the end, when there were no other speeches going on. :)

UPDATE, 8:19 PM: They’re still airing Dean’s speech live, even though he has basically entered the “thank the Academy” portion. Aha! There, they finally broke away.

UPDATE, 8:24 PM: Kerry now being interviewed by Wolf Blitzer. Talking about “favoritism to the cronies and special interests.”

Asked how he will combat the “Massachusetts liberal” label: “Americans are tired of the labeling and the slogans. What they really want is leadership. … There’s no way to call me [a liberal].” Blah blah, list of reasons he’s not really a liberal. “It just, it doesn’t fit. What they’re trying to do, is cloud up the issue, because they’re afraid of talking about… [blah blah list of pet issues] …so they throw the labels around.”

“If balancing the budget is called liberal, then let’s go, you can go ahead and call me that. … I don’t think it’s very conservative to run up deficits. I don’t think it’s very conservative to trample on civil rights. … ”

UPDATE: “I’m an independent-minded Democrat, and that’s the only kind that has a chance to beat George W. Bush.” –Joe Lieberman

Lieberman’s travel plans have been changed by the weather… he was going to go to Delaware, but the airport is snowed in there, so he’s going to Oklahoma, “where the wind, and thankfully not the snow, comes sweeping down the plain.” :)

As I just posted on the Command Post, “top sources” are telling the Drudge Report that Joe Lieberman is contemplating “suspending” his campaign. “It’s becoming clear that it is not Joe’s year,” source says. [Becoming? –ed.] Exit polls suggest Senator Joe will finish in fifth place, in single digits, tonight.

I am leaving work now, so I will be out of blog-contact for a while. I hope to be home right around the time the polls close (8:00 PM Eastern, 6:00 PM MST). In the mean time, please visit The Command Post for updates. Also recommended: Drudge, Wonkette, and PoliticsNH.com.

Over on the Command Post — which, like a lot of sites, is loading really slow, if at all; I blame the MyDoom virus and/or John Ashcroft — they’ve got initial, rumored exit-poll numbers, posted earlier this afternoon by yours truly:

Kerry 37 (or 36)
Dean 30 (or 31)
Edwards 12
Clark 12
Lieberman 7

Less than three hours till the polls close…

Oh, and if you’re keeping score at home, here are some blogger predictions of how tonight’s race will come out. And here’s BoiFromTroy’s take.

In what promises to become a weekly ritual until the nomination is decided, it will be American politics vs. American Idol again tonight in the Brendan & Becky house.

Idol’s Los Angeles and San Francisco auditions air from 7:00 to 8:00 PM Mountain time tonight — probably the same exact time period when conclusive results will begin to pour out of New Hampshire. (The Granite State’s polls close at 6:00 PM MST.)

The Detroit Free Press lists both events on its TV best bets for tonight. Colorful words used in the descriptions include “charlatans,” “atrocious,” “boogaloo,” and “pathetic.” I’ll let you judge for yourself what describes what. :)

But I think we all know what this refers to: “It ain’t over till Howie Dean screams!” YAAAAAAAAAAAAAARRRRHHHHHH!!!!!!!!! (No, that joke will never get old. Ever.)

Today’s lunch-break update will have to be brief, since I arrived at work a bit late today (Becky gave me a ride after we watched the Oscar nominations together) and I intend to leave a bit early, in order to get home around the time the polls close in New Hampshire.

But this news is important: it seems G-d has granted my prayer for Joe Lieberman: “In New Hampshire, primary voters will see clear and dry skies most of Tuesday. The snow headed to the Northeast isn’t expected to reach the Granite State until the evening.” Yay! See? The Almighty is on Senator Joe’s side. (Now if only a few more New Hampshirians were, too…)

Other big news: Al Franken is sticking up for free speech by body-slamming free speakers. Commentary would be superfluous.

Meanwhile, in Connecticut, they’ve announced the randomly selected ballot order for their March 2 primary — and Senator Joe is second! (Right ahead of Lyndon LaRouche!) My dad has the scoop.

Finally, a bit of potential wisdom from blogger John Ellis (hat tip: Mickey Kaus), who predicts a “cognitive dissonance crisis” for the press if Dean finishes second:

The veteran scribes would be very cross…since they have already written (in their heads) the Dean obit and the South Carolina set-ups (either Kerry vs. Edwards or Kerry vs. Clark). … The Rule of Two would thus require the scribes to frame the race as Kerry vs. Dean. But they’ve long since decided that Dean is a goner.

It would be enough to make the press want to scream. YAAAAAAAAAAAAAARRRRHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!

:)

Five hours till the polls close!

The Command Post has inaugurated me as a new contributor!!! They sent me a password and everything. And they’ve posted a link to my Dixville Notch coverage from last night!

CP averages several thousand hits a day. Last week, they got roughly 6,000 hits on the day of the Iowa Caucus, and roughly 7,000 the day after.

Yay!!

“Look, honey! Joe Lieberman is ringing OUR DOORBELL!” and more funny observations by Dave Barry.

Other Primary Day links here.

I’d like to add another link or two: Wonkette, Mickey Kaus, my parents (don’t know if my dad will do New Hampshire blogging, but he might), and Becky (same deal).

I’d also like to re-state that the Command Post rocks. They are now apparently considering posting and linking to my stuff!

UPDATE: “The outcome of today�s contest will tell us something about the methodology of factoring in leaners and also about the ability of big media to take differring methodologies into account when reporting on polls.” –Command Post … Latest numbers show Kerry leading by anywhere from 3 to 20 points, depending on who you believe, and whether you include “leaning” undecided voters in the tally.

Return of the King gets 11 nominations! And its presumed chief rival for Best Picture, Cold Mountain, didn’t even get nominated!

Here are ROTK’s nominations:
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Adapted Screenplay
Makeup
Original Score
Original Song
Art Direction
Costume Design
Sound Mixing
Visual Effects
Film Editing

Yay!! Just one complaint: where are the nominations for Sean Astin and/or Ian McKellen for Best Supporting Actor? The Academy seems prepared to declare ROTK a historically good movie… but apparently it has no good acting?!? (UPDATE: This is the first time a movie has ever won 11 nominations without a single acting nod, according to E! Entertainment Television.)

Well anyway, if Return of the King wins in all 11 categories, it can tie Titanic’s record! I hereby predict it will win everything it was nominated for, except Screenplay… and maybe one of the technical categories… but I wouldn’t be surprise if it sweeps those, what with its momentum.

Here’s the complete list of nominees. It’s awesome to see Johnny Depp get nominated… but it seems like that category will come down to Bill Murray vs. Sean Penn. Penn will probably get it, but wouldn’t it be fun to see Bill Murray win?

Nominated for Best Picture:
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Lost in Translation
Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
Mystic River
Seabiscuit