Owing to the statistical significance of tomorrow’s Notre Dame-Syracuse game, I offer the following new fight song for the Fighting Irish, with love from Trojan fans everywhere:

Fight on for Notre Dame
Their men fight on for Trojan fame
Our hated rival dear
We look to you!
To help us win the BCS
So, beat the Orange, yes!
Fight on!

Thanks to Keri Hustad for the inspiration on this one. :)

Well, this is it — Championship Saturday, the day everything is decided, the last bunch of regular-season games. If USC and LSU both win, it will be a very close race for #2 in the BCS, with decimal points probably making the difference between who goes to the Sugar Bowl and who goes to the Rose Bowl. A single computer poll, a single random game between Notre Dame and Syracuse, could potentially decide it.

Notwithstanding the frustratingly common, entirely incorrect statements by ignorant, BCS-challenged football writers who keep saying, despite ample evidence and analysis to the contrary, that all USC needs to do is win, the Trojans also need to root for Notre Dame and/or Georgia. Hard.

On the bright side, things have already gotten off to a good start for the Trojans. Miami of Ohio’s 49-27 win yesterday over Bowling Green denied LSU 0.04 valuable strength-of-schedule points. Believe it or not, this miniscule amount could end up making the difference.

Now it all comes down to this weekend. For Trojan fans, the BCS-watching has two stages. First, we watch the games on Saturday — our own, our competitor’s, and our archival-turned-best-friend’s. Then, we watch the polls and computers on Sunday. If USC and LSU both win, these two stages could be equally suspenseful; the latter may even be moreso.

To make matters worse, the computers “may all hold their rankings” until the official BCS announcement, instead of releasing them on their normal schedules, according to an e-mail from Rich Tellshow. The official BCS announcement is on Sunday. I’m not sure of the exact time, but last year it was at 3:30 PM Eastern.

Anyway… below is a list of Saturday’s relevant games, in chronological order. The team in boldface is the one USC fans should root for. All times Eastern; all rankings based on Rich Tellshow’s extended BCS; TV information courtesy of SI.com.

After the game list, I’ll give a breakdown of the different scenarios.

THE GAMES

#39 Notre Dame at #75 Syracuse, 1:00 PM, ABC
This game is statistically crucial. An Irish victory would almost guarantee USC the Sugar Bowl spot, provided the Trojans beat Oregon State, whereas a Syracuse win would make it quite likely that LSU would leapfrog USC. The Irish and the Orangement are both 5-6, but seemingly going in opposite directions: Notre Dame has won three in a row, while Syracuse has lost three straight. Hopefully both trends will hold. Fight on for Notre Dame! :)

#44 Oregon State at #2 USC, 4:30 PM, ABC
Does this one really require any explanation? USC obviously needs to win. An impressive, blowout win would be nice, as it would help guard against any poll shenanigans if LSU creams Georgia. But regardless, the point is, GO TROJANS!!!!! I will be at the game, as will Becky, Kristy, Andrew and Bea, Suzanne and a friend of hers, Rachel and some friend(s) of hers. Yes, it will be a big ol’ party at the Coliseum. Stay tuned for Moblog updates tomorrow afternoon/evening.

#3 LSU vs. #7 Georgia, 8:00 PM, CBS
An LSU win, coupled with a Trojan victory, means the BCS #2 spot will be a very close call. On the other hand, a Georgia win, coupled with a Trojan victory, virtually guarantees us the Sugar Bowl. (Why do I say “virtually”? Read on.) So… GO DAWGS GO!!! However, if it looks like LSU is definitely going to win, root for a blowout, so that Georgia will fall precipitously in the polls and the Tigers won’t get any quality-win points. Another thing to consider: a Georgia win could potentially vault the Bulldogs into the #3 spot in the polls and the BCS, and even with two losses, they might be closer to USC than you’d think. In fact, it would probably be pretty close to even once you consider SOS and QWs, and it would likely come down to — you guessed it — the computer polls. But it’s highly unlikely the two-loss Bulldogs would actually be able to pass the one-loss Trojans, whereas our lead over one-loss LSU hangs by a thread, so forget everything I just said and focus on rooting like crazy for Georgia. Your national-championship berth may depend on it.

#15 Kansas State vs. #1 Oklahoma, 8:00 PM, ABC
(Root for Oklahoma if Notre Dame won;
root for Kansas State is Syracuse won.)
Nobody seems to know what an Oklahoma loss in this game would do to the BCS standings, except that everyone believes the Sooners would stay in the Top 2. But how would such a scenario impact the USC-LSU race? It’s almost impossible to say; there are just too many variables. So here’s my theory: if Notre Dame wins, we pretty much know we’re golden vs. LSU under the current scenario, so don’t rock the boat… root for Oklahoma. But if Syracuse wins, we pretty much know we’re screwed vs. LSU, so we want to rock the boat, so… root for Kansas State.

#19 Boise State at #56 Hawaii, 11:35 PM, ESPN
If Notre Dame and/or Georgia win, we almost certainly don’t need Hawaii to win. If Syracuse and LSU win, a Hawaii win probably isn’t enough to save us. So it’s tempting to write this game off altogether and ignore it. But this is the BCS, so hey, you never know. A Hawaii win could be just the thing that sways an unpredictable computer like the New York Times. And since there is no downside to a Hawaii victory, we might as well root like hell for ‘em. Go Warriors!!

SCENARIOS

All of the following scenarios make the following major assumptions:

1. USC and LSU both win. (If either loses, obviously the other one is all set. If both lose, we have a Michigan-Georgia battle for #2 on our hands.)
2. Oklahoma wins. (As I said above, if Oklahoma loses, I have no f***ing idea what happens in the BCS standings.)
3. USC stays ahead of LSU in both human polls. (If LSU overtakes us in either poll, we’re doomed.)
4. USC does not fall to #4 or lower in more than one computer poll. (If this were to happen, the Trojans could possibly still be vulnerable even if Notre Dame wins. But Rich Tellshow says it ain’t so, and I believe him.)
5. The Los Angeles Times was wrong when it reported this morning that “LSU will pass USC for the No. 2 spot in the Colley [Matrix] ratings if both schools win.” Every other analysis I’ve read — and I’ve read a bunch of ‘em — says the battle for #2 in Colley comes down to Syracuse vs. Notre Dame, with LSU prevailing only if the Orangemen win. So I’m assuming this was sloppy reporting by Chris Dufresne, and USC will finish #2 in Colley if Notre Dame wins.

Okay, those are the assumptions. Here are the scenarios:

If Notre Dame and Hawaii win:
USC finishes 0.16 strength-of-schedule (SOS) points ahead of LSU, meaning the Tigers need all seven computers to rank them #2 and need USC to finish #4 in two computers. If the assumptions above are correct, this is impossible.

If Notre Dame and Boise State win:
LSU wins the SOS by 0.04 points. Even so, the Tigers still need all seven computers to rank them #2, or six computers to rank them #2 and two computers to rank USC #4. This is also impossible if the assumptions above are correct. So what we’re saying here is, a Notre Dame win pretty much assures USC of a Sugar Bowl spot, barring anything unforseen.

If Syracuse and Hawaii win:
LSU wins the SOS by 0.08 points. The Tigers need six computers to rank them #2 and they also must get 0.1 quality-win points (meaning Georgia finishes #10, instead of falling out of the top 10), or else they need all seven computers to rank them #2. Either of these scenarios could easily happen. It would be close and suspenseful. With LSU winning Colley thanks to Syracuse’s win, the only two computers where USC has a realistic chance of finishing #2 are the Peter Wolfe poll and the New York Times poll.

If Syracuse and Boise State win:
LSU wins the SOS by 0.20 points. All the Tigers need is for six computers to rank them #2. This would happen unless USC holds onto the #2 spot in both Wolfe and NY Times (or, unexpectedly, in some other computer poll), which would be unlikely under these cirumstances.

So basically, if Syracuse wins, LSU probably has it, but if Notre Dame wins, USC definitely has it… unless something unforseen happens. Of course, this is the BCS, and unforseen things can and do happen… especially when the New York Times computer poll is involved. :)

I personally won’t feel fully confident that USC is going to the Sugar Bowl until it is officially announced on Sunday, regardless of what happens tomorrow. But at least this is a starting point.

So there you have it! And now, I leave you with…

Hey, hey, hey, hey!
Whoooooaaaaa……
S! O! U! T! H! E! R! N!
C! A! L! I! F! O! R! N! I! A!
Southern!
Calif-ooooooooooorrrrrr-nia!!!

Fight on for old ‘SC
Our men fight on to victory
Our alma mater dear
Looks up to you!
Fight on and win for old ‘SC
Fight on to victory
Fight on!