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December 1st, 2003
BCS chat wrap
Posted by on Monday, December 1, 2003 at 9:06 pm

I “watched” most of the online chat with ESPN’s BCS analyst, Brad Edwards, live… which was really unnecessary, since the whole thing is transcripted here. But anyway, although my (obviously brilliant) question did not get asked, there were some interesting insights, and a funny moment or two. Highlights:

(more…)


I will fight no more forever
Posted by on Monday, December 1, 2003 at 5:12 pm

Dane points out that the number of posts is now just four ahead (five after this post) of the number of comments. I am tempted to go on a posting spree in an attempt to maintain my lead, however, I must admit this is a battle I can’t possibly win. Therefore, I surrender to the incoming tidal wave of comments. :)

Update after this posting: Posts 2239, Comments 2234. (But dammit, posts’ strength of schedule is stronger!)

NOTE: I could also fight the battle by going back and eliminating duplicate and spam comments, but that would only buy me a week or two, and it’s way too much trouble. :) Plus, as discussed earlier, I don’t want to create doubts about the legitimacy of Dane’s comment #2000.


BCS boo-boo
Posted by on Monday, December 1, 2003 at 5:05 pm

I think I finally understand the difference between Rich Tellshow’s and Jerry Palm’s strength-of-schedule numbers. Tellshow just posted this message (emphasis in original):

Note the Projected SOS for LSU has changed. I had forgotten to account for the rule that LSU’s previous victory over UGA does not get counted when it plays UGA again. Also, if LSU wins, its second victory does not count as an opponent’s loss for the game on 9/20. The net effect is that LSU opponents have 2 fewer losses than I had been projecting. I appologize for publishing an incorrect projection. Check back and I’ll re-do the sos projections if Syracuse, Hawaii, etc. win.

D’oh. This makes things worse for USC. So that’s why Palm’s projections are so much more LSU-friendly than my original projections, which were based on Tellshow’s numbers; hence my initial, briefly held belief that USC controls its own destiny.

How dare our esteemed oracle of BCS wisdom make a mistake… heads must roll! :)

UPDATE: As promised, Tellshow has updated his strength of schedule numbers to reflect the new reality. It is substantially worse for USC:

USC by 0.16 if ND, Haw, MOH win*
USC by 0.12 if ND, Haw, BG win*
LSU by 0.04 if ND, BSU, MOH win**
LSU by 0.08 if ND, BSU, BG win+
LSU by 0.08 if Syr, Haw, MOH win+
LSU by 0.08 if Syr, Haw, BG win+
LSU by 0.20 if Syr, BSU, MOH win+
LSU by 0.24 if Syr, BSU, BG win++
(ND = Notre Dame; Syr = Syracuse; Haw = Hawaii; BSU = Boise State; MOH = Miami of Ohio; BG = Bowling Green)

* = LSU needs all 7 computer #2 rankings, and USC would have to fall to 4th in two computers
** = LSU needs all 7 computer #2 rankings
+ = LSU needs 6 #2 computer rankings and .1 QW points, or 7 computer #2s
++ = LSU needs 6 #2 computer rankings and no QW points.

If Syracuse and Boise State both win, it will be disastrous for USC. Remember, strength of schedule also affects the computers. Colley Matrix rests entirely on the ND-Syr game, but we also may need the Wolfe ratings, and that too could be decided by either of these games. Bottom line: Notre Dame needs to win, and if they don’t, then for the love of God, Hawaii must.

Of course, if Georgia beats LSU, we don’t have to worry about any of this crap.

Game times:
Miami (OH) vs. Bowling Green, 7:00 PM EST Thursday (ESPN2)
Notre Dame at Syracuse, 1:00 PM EST Saturday (ABC)
Oregon State at USC, 4:30 PM EST Saturday (ABC)
LSU vs. Georgia, 8:00 PM EST Saturday (CBS)
Boise State at Hawaii, 11:35 PM EST Saturday (ESPN)


Catnap time
Posted by on Monday, December 1, 2003 at 1:43 pm

As we speak, Toby and Butter are cuddling up together and sleeping on the couch. Awww:

Here’s a picture from yesterday evening of Sasha sitting nearby as Becky did grad-school work:


A Picture Share!
Posted by on Monday, December 1, 2003 at 11:33 am
You have received a Picture Share from 8608335833@messaging.sprintpcs.com.

I got my checks in the mail today from Wells Fargo. They have smiley faces on them! :)

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I got my checks in the mail today from Wells Fargo. They have smiley faces on them! :)


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blah blah blah blah
Posted by on Monday, December 1, 2003 at 11:28 am

You know what I love about the Daily Trojan? Its concise headlines.


Rum again?
Posted by on Monday, December 1, 2003 at 11:13 am

The inimitable Donald Rumsfeld has won a “foot in mouth” prize (mooooo!) for the following statement:

“Reports that say something hasn’t happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns — the ones we don’t know we don’t know.”

Hee hee hee.

Rumsfeld’s statement barely beat out this Arnold Schwarzenegger gem: “I think that gay marriage is something that should be between a man and a woman.” Heh.


One corporation to rule them all
Posted by on Monday, December 1, 2003 at 11:09 am

Here is an article and photo gallery from CNN, which is owned by AOL Time Warner, on the premiere of Return of the King, which is produced by New Line Cinema, which is owned by AOL Time Warner.

This blog post has been brought to you by AOL Time Warner.

:)

15 days till Trilogy Tuesday!!!


I have a job!
Posted by on Monday, December 1, 2003 at 11:06 am

Starting tomorrow morning (early morning), I will officially be working full-time at Intertec, the same place I contracted at for a week last month. Woohoo!

And I’ll even have benefits after 30 days… which is excellent, considering that my health insurance expires today! I just have to hope I don’t get into any major medical crises during the month of December. (By the way… Happy December! :)

Anyway, as I understand it, I’ll be sort of a combination software developer, techie assistant, resume processor, jack-of-all-trades. The point is… I’m employed! Yay!


Down with Syracuse, up the Republic!
Posted by on Monday, December 1, 2003 at 9:46 am

Well, it seems I spoke too soon when I said that USC controls its own destiny. Rich Tellshow has now jumped on board with Jerry Palm in saying that the Syracuse-Notre Dame game (Saturday, 1:00 PM Eastern, on ABC) could very well decide who finishes #2 in the BCS, assuming the Trojans and Tigers both win their own finales. And he finally explains why that game is more important than Hawaii-Boise State:

The battle between USC and LSU might be decided by the computer polls. LSU is ahead in Massey, Anderson and Sagarin. It is very likely that LSU will overtake USC in Billingsley by beating Georgia. I think it is also likely that LSU will be 2nd in the NYTimes… Wolfe’s ranking will be a close call but I think LSU has a good shot at that one too. That leaves Colley’s Matrix. Luckily, I have that one duplicated. USC will be #2 in Colley with wins by the favorites. LSU will be #2 in Colley if Syracuse upsets ND, even if Hawaii upsets Boise State. So there you have it, the Syracuse-ND game could determine the BCS with its effect on sos and Colley’s Matrix. Of course there are many such games during the season, this is just the last one.

Well, let’s see now. One place in one computer poll is worth 0.17 BCS points. And in the strength-of-schedule column, the Syracuse-ND is worth between 0.20 and 0.28 points (depending on the outcome of other games). So the battle between the Irish and the Orangemen (Green vs. Orange! Ha!) is worth a total of between 0.37 and 0.45 points… unbelievable!

I think this calls for a song:

Cheer, cheer for old Notre Dame,
Wake up the echoes cheering her name,
Send a volley cheer on high,
Shake down the thunder from the sky.
What though the odds be great or small
Old Notre Dame will win over all,
While her loyal sons are marching
Onward to victory.

Chris, no band satires, please… not this week. This week, we must be united in saying… GO IRISH!!!

(Here’s another somewhat relevant song. Heh.)

UPDATE: ESPN.com’s Brad Edwards is hosting another BCS chat at 6:00 PM Eastern tonight. I’m submitting a question now.

ANOTHER UPDATE: Here’s another BCS analysis, by CBS Sportsline’s Dennis Dodd, affirming that ND-Syracuse is the game. Jerry Palm is once again the principal source. (Haven’t these people ever heard of Rich Tellshow? Jeez.) Palm says: “If Syracuse wins, USC needs a lot of help.” He suggests the Trojans may even need a “miracle.”

Palm adds, “If Notre Dame wins, LSU will have to lead in six computers” –meaning all six aside from the Colley Matrix — “and get a quality win bonus. If Syracuse wins, LSU may not need the quality win bonus at all.”

Yeah, and if the Colley Matrix denies USC a Sugar Bowl bid, Trojan fans may demand that the Matrix be Reloaded, and if they are refused, they may start a Revolution. (ka-ching)

Regarding the title-game implications of ND-Syracuse, Dodd notes, “A similar situation played out two years ago when TCU beat Southern Miss allowing Nebraska to hold onto the No. 2 BCS spot by .05 of a point and play for the national championship.”


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