BrendanLoy.com: Homepage | Photoblog | Weatherblog | Photos | Old blog archives

« Previous post | Next post »
BCS chat wrap
Posted by on Monday, December 1, 2003 at 9:06 pm

I “watched” most of the online chat with ESPN’s BCS analyst, Brad Edwards, live… which was really unnecessary, since the whole thing is transcripted here. But anyway, although my (obviously brilliant) question did not get asked, there were some interesting insights, and a funny moment or two. Highlights:

Josh (Baton Rouge): With a solid win over Georgia could LSU swing any coaches or writers to put them as #2 no matter what the outcome of the USC-Oregon State game is?

Brad Edwards: Josh, from watching both teams play almost every week this season, I believe it will take more than a dominant performance by LSU to switch the order in the polls. USC will need to lose or have a sloppy win to fall from No. 2. The gap is significant enough that nearly half of the voters will need to change their ballots. As a sidebar, I can tell you that a number of LSU fans are flooding the e-mail inboxes of AP voters this week with their reasons why LSU should be No. 2. Unfortunately, they are running the risk of annoying these people to the point that they might not want to give LSU the No. 2 spot.

Jeff (Fort Myers, FL): Could LSU pass USC without changing the human polls, or are they mathematically out if USC wins?

Brad Edwards: LSU’s best-case scenario is to jump USC in at least one poll, but they still have a chance even if that doesn’t happen. Most of the opponent games did not go LSU’s way last week, and the Tigers now must hope that a key opponent game doesn’t go USC’s way this week. A Notre Dame win over Syracuse would improve USC’s position just enough that it would be ALMOST mathematically impossible for LSU to catch them. To have a reasonable chance without poll movement, LSU needs a Syracuse win.

Bryan (Los Angeles): All this talk about ND vs Syracuse, but no mention of Hawaii vs Boise St. Doesn’t a Hawaii win favor USC as much as ND?

Brad Edwards: Great question! As far as schedule strength, Notre Dame has far more impact on USC than Hawaii does, and here’s why. The BCS schedule strength formula is 2/3 opponents’ record and 1/3 opponents’ opponents’ record. Even though Hawaii is an opponent of USC, the Trojans have two other opponents that also played Boise State (Oregon State and BYU). Therefore, the Boise-Hawaii game is basically a wash for USC in the schedule strength department. Notre Dame has a bigger impact because USC has no connection to Syracuse.

(Editor’s note: I don’t believe this is entirely right. Although the 1/3 - 2/3 formula is correct, individual opponents’ opponents’ games are worth far less than direct opponents’ games because there are a lot more of them — roughly ten times more, in fact. So I don’t believe Edwards is right that Boise-Hawaii is “a wash” for USC. But certainly the opp-opp factor would dilute its value, and that must be a factor in why it’s worth less than ND-Syracuse.)

Adam (Denver via Iowa City): Mr. Edwards, Why in the heck do the computers give Miami (OH) such high rankings, when the team that beat them is given worse rankings?

Brad Edwards: Iowa is ranked behind Miami because of the Hawkeyes’ three losses, and the RedHawks are highly ranked by some computers because of the success the MAC had out of conference this season. There is a chance Miami could even finish ahead of USC in one or two computers, and if they get wedged in between LSU and USC, it could have an effect on the national title race.

Michael (Portland, OR): Why are university presidents against a playoff system?

Brad Edwards: Most university presidents (but obviously not the one at Auburn) are still trying to pretend that college football is just another amateur sport and not a big business. But they know better. They use missed class time as an argument against a playoff, but football players don’t miss nearly as much school as basketball and baseball players. The truth is that a playoff would generate so much money that it would be difficult not to give something back to the players, and that would open up Pandora’s Box for the athletic department. I think we will see two or four teams play it off after the bowl games sometime in the near future, because budgets are getting so tight in college athletics that presidents might not be able to hold out much longer.

Matt (Dubuque, IA): Is there any chance that Iowa could still make it to the top 10 in the BCS? If so how?

Brad Edwards: If Miami (OH) and Georgia both lose this week, there’s a chance. But you don’t get a trophy for finishing in the top 10 of the BCS. Perhaps they could sell t-shirts.

(Editor’s note: LOL.)

Dave (Rancho Santa Margarita, CA): Since LSU is probably going to lose its .4 quality win deduction how is it mathmatically possible for them to pass USC in the BCS? …

Brad Edwards: Let’s start at the beginning and assume USC is one spot better than LSU in the polls. If we also assume the teams are even in losses and quality-win points, then LSU must make up that point between the computers and schedule strength. Believe it or not, if Notre Dame loses to Syracuse, LSU will finish with a stronger schedule than USC. It seems like a lot, but they can make it up. The big question is whether LSU can finish ahead of USC in 6 of the 7 computers. If Notre Dame loses, I think the Tigers can do it. And they might have enough of a schedule strength advantage to make up the difference. There’s even a chance Georgia might only fall to 10th in the BCS, which would be worth another tenth of a point for the Tigers. If Notre Dame wins, however, LSU won’t be able to make up much in schedule strength and would likely need to be ahead in all seven computers, which wouldn’t happen. The only realistic chance LSU still has requires Syracuse to beat Notre Dame.




4 Comments on “BCS chat wrap”

  1. Dane Says:

    I would like to point out that playoffs are a darn fine idea. And really the only way to make the system fair. (Perhaps it is really an NFL conspiracy that, although loving the free farm teams the get from college, don’t think they can handle the kind of competition a NCAA Football playoff would generate.)

  2. Dane Says:

    Okay, I feel like being off topic tonight.

    I was on Dave Barry’s Blog this evening and giving my penchant for things legalistic I was amused by this item. http://abclocal.go.com/wtvd/news/112903_APnatl_walmart.html Now, I know that impressment into military service is no-longer allowed. However, it would appear that the same requirement does not apply to Juries.

  3. Harry Husker Says:

    1. Press and Coaches Polls
    With time-overlaps and Regional Coverage,
    I dought that either really know much about
    the top 10 teams. Probably watch only or
    two games a year or top 20 teams.


This is an archived post. Comments are closed.

To leave a comment on a newer post, please visit the homepage.


[powered by WordPress.]