I think I finally understand the difference between Rich Tellshow’s and Jerry Palm’s strength-of-schedule numbers. Tellshow just posted this message (emphasis in original):

Note the Projected SOS for LSU has changed. I had forgotten to account for the rule that LSU’s previous victory over UGA does not get counted when it plays UGA again. Also, if LSU wins, its second victory does not count as an opponent’s loss for the game on 9/20. The net effect is that LSU opponents have 2 fewer losses than I had been projecting. I appologize for publishing an incorrect projection. Check back and I’ll re-do the sos projections if Syracuse, Hawaii, etc. win.

D’oh. This makes things worse for USC. So that’s why Palm’s projections are so much more LSU-friendly than my original projections, which were based on Tellshow’s numbers; hence my initial, briefly held belief that USC controls its own destiny.

How dare our esteemed oracle of BCS wisdom make a mistake… heads must roll! :)

UPDATE: As promised, Tellshow has updated his strength of schedule numbers to reflect the new reality. It is substantially worse for USC:

USC by 0.16 if ND, Haw, MOH win*
USC by 0.12 if ND, Haw, BG win*
LSU by 0.04 if ND, BSU, MOH win**
LSU by 0.08 if ND, BSU, BG win+
LSU by 0.08 if Syr, Haw, MOH win+
LSU by 0.08 if Syr, Haw, BG win+
LSU by 0.20 if Syr, BSU, MOH win+
LSU by 0.24 if Syr, BSU, BG win++
(ND = Notre Dame; Syr = Syracuse; Haw = Hawaii; BSU = Boise State; MOH = Miami of Ohio; BG = Bowling Green)

* = LSU needs all 7 computer #2 rankings, and USC would have to fall to 4th in two computers
** = LSU needs all 7 computer #2 rankings
+ = LSU needs 6 #2 computer rankings and .1 QW points, or 7 computer #2s
++ = LSU needs 6 #2 computer rankings and no QW points.

If Syracuse and Boise State both win, it will be disastrous for USC. Remember, strength of schedule also affects the computers. Colley Matrix rests entirely on the ND-Syr game, but we also may need the Wolfe ratings, and that too could be decided by either of these games. Bottom line: Notre Dame needs to win, and if they don’t, then for the love of God, Hawaii must.

Of course, if Georgia beats LSU, we don’t have to worry about any of this crap.

Game times:
Miami (OH) vs. Bowling Green, 7:00 PM EST Thursday (ESPN2)
Notre Dame at Syracuse, 1:00 PM EST Saturday (ABC)
Oregon State at USC, 4:30 PM EST Saturday (ABC)
LSU vs. Georgia, 8:00 PM EST Saturday (CBS)
Boise State at Hawaii, 11:35 PM EST Saturday (ESPN)