The world premiere of Return of the King, in New Zealand, takes place… uh… today, I believe, if I’m not mixing up the dates. (Damn international date line.) Anyway, TheOneRing.net has live coverage, of course.

Remember last year, when USC fans were put in the uncomfortable position of rooting like hell for, of all teams, UCLA, in the last week of the season, in hopes of getting a Rose Bowl bid? (If you don’t remember, here’s a refresher.) Well, it’s going to happen again… but this time around, the hated rival/new favorite team is Notre Dame. To wit:

If we assume that USC and LSU both win on Saturday — and that the order of the two teams does not change in the polls — the Tigers will need to make up a full point on the Trojans through strength of schedule and the computer ratings. Since LSU has no hope for a significant quality-win bonus or a commanding lead in schedule strength (thanks to this past weekend’s results), the Bayou Bengals will likely need to finish ahead of Southern California in six of the seven BCS computers to make up such ground.

And because the Notre Dame-Syracuse game will be played before the Oregon State-USC game, LSU will know by kickoff whether it needs some help from the Beavers.

So says Brad Edwards in ESPN’s Road to the BCS. In simpler terms: GO IRISH!!! Hey, it works for me… for once, I can simultaneously root for my alma mater and my future law school! :)

But actually, methinks Mr. Road to the BCS has overlooked one or two other important SOS showdowns. According to Rich Tellshow, there is one other game that will definitely impact the strength-of-schedule battle, and another that might impact it. The definite player is Boise State at Hawaii, and the possible player is the MAC championship game between Bowling Green and Miami of Ohio. It goes like this:

· If Syracuse beats Notre Dame and Boise State beats Hawaii (worst-case scenario for the Trojans), LSU finishes ahead of USC in the final SOS by 0.16 points.

· If either Syracuse or Boise State, but not both, win, USC beats LSU by 0.08 points.

· If Notre Dame and Hawaii both win, USC beats LSU by 0.20 points… or 0.28 if Bowling Green wins the MAC. (The MAC title game has no effect in other scenarios.)

All of that is according to Tellshow, who, by the way, now shows a projected finish of USC 6.95, LSU 7.43. That’s just a hair closer than I reported earlier — whether because of a typographical error on my part, or a change on Tellshow’s, I’m not sure.

But either way, the bottom line remains the same. Although we should certainly root for Notre Dame, Hawaii, and Bowling Green for safety’s sake, I continue to believe that USC — assuming we beat Oregon State, of course — will stay ahead of LSU unless the Tigers pass us in one or both human polls. And as I’ve already explained here and on Tellshow’s message board, the Tigers have a lot of ground to make up. USC has sizeable leads in second-place votes in both polls (60-5 in the AP, 57-6 in the coaches).

I doubt even a big LSU win over Georgia will convince nearly 30 voters in either poll to abandon USC, unless the Trojans have an unexpectedly tight squeeze against Oregon State. If we blow out the Beavers, they aren’t going to “punish” us with a season-killing “demotion” in the polls.

Which means, at last, USC control its destiny.

Goooooo Trojans!!!!

UPDATE/CORRECTION?: According to SI.com, Jerry Palm thinks LSU is in better shape than either Brad Edwards or Rich Tellshow seemingly does (or at least, than my interpretation of Tellshow’s data led me to believe).

I’m confused now. Palm says “it’s 50-50.” He adds, “You really like [USC’s] chances if Notre Dame wins. But I really think if Syracuse wins, then LSU has the edge.”

Okay, whatever, but what I want to know is, why is everyone talking about Notre Dame-Syracuse and ignoring Boise State-Hawaii? Statistically speaking, they’re equally important, aren’t they? I know ND-Syracuse is a sexier game to talk about, but c’mon people, both the Irish and the Warriors are direct opponents for USC. What’s the difference?

Anyway, Palm also offered this surprising tidbit: “Contrary to popular belief, LSU would not have benefited from playing Florida instead of Georgia in the SEC title game. The schedule boost provided by playing the 10-2 Dawgs compensates for possibly losing the quality-win points.”

It has been requested that I come up with a Christmas “wish list,” so that it will be easier for friends & family to know what to consider buying for me. I used to have such a list on Amazon.com… well, I still do, actually, but it’s hopelessly outdated now, and anyway it’s impossible nowadays to find a single retailer or website that sells the many items of technological miscellany that I need/want. :) Therefore, I’m creating a wish list on my own website. It will be available right here in the blog, and also at the URL www.brendanloy.com/wishlist.

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With the computer data beginning to roll in, Rich Tellshow’s initial prediction for this week’s BCS standings shows the gap between USC and LSU shrinking somewhat, but not nearly as much as had been feared, from 2.15 points to 1.49 points. (Specifically, he says it will be USC 6.94, LSU 8.43.) That’s still a sizeable lead for the Trojans with one week left in the season.

More importantly, instead of a 7.11 to 7.11 tie in the projected final standings, Tellshow now has USC coming out on top, 6.95 to 7.59. We can thank Hawaii, Rice, and Florida State for that, he explains:

It was a good week for USC’s sos as Hawaii won and bad for LSU as Bama, LaTech and UF lost. USC’s projected sos gained 4 positions while LSU’s dropped 8 positions. I have looked at the effect of the Hawaii upset of Bama. USC’s sos would have been 1.48 instead of 1.28 and LSU’s would have been 1.24 instead of 1.36 had Bama won. That’s a difference of 0.32 had Bama won! This win also helps in the computer polls and USC is now projected to hold onto the #2 spot in the Colley Matrix. This win could be huge for USC. At the end of the season I will see if this game made the difference between USC and LSU. Had Bama and LaTech won, LSU’s sos would have been 1.04, and even lower if UF also won. If Syracuse upsets ND next week, USC projected sos is 1.44 instead of 1.28.

So next week it’s cheer, cheer for old Notre Dame… and of course, fight on Trojans and go Bulldogs! :)

UPDATE: Here’s a good wrap-up of the weekend that was.

And here’s a first look at next week’s key games. There are only two direct-opponent SOS matchups left: ND at Syracuse, as mentioned above, and Boise State at Hawaii. Go Irish and go Warriors!

ANOTHER UPDATE: A bit of quick math suggests to me that if USC can stay #2, ahead of LSU, in even one of the seven computer polls, that will probably be enough to hold off the Tigers. Two, I think, would definitely be enough, even if Syracuse upsets Notre Dame. I await Tellshow’s confirmation of this.

That is, of course, unless LSU overtakes USC in one or both of the human polls. The Tigers would definitely be going to the Sugar Bowl in that case. So USC doesn’t just need to beat the Beavers, we need to crush them.

UPDATE TO THE UPDATE: Here’s my mathematical evidence.

ANOTHER DORKY UPDATE: The new ESPN/USA Today poll (a.k.a. the coaches’ poll) is out, and I just analyzed it to death over on Tellshow’s message boards. Bottom line: LSU took away four of USC’s previous 61 (out of 63) second-place votes with its big win over Arkansas, but the Trojans are still way ahead of the Tigers in this category, 57 to 6.

All we have to do is hold onto at least 32 of the 57 voters who currently rank us second, and we’ll finish #2 in the poll. So LSU must not convince more than 25 voters to change their minds. Which means (reiterating a previous point) that the Trojans need to not just win, but win big, against Oregon State, to guard against the possibility of a big, impressive LSU win over Georgia.

YET MORE DORKINESS: The AP poll is out. The situation there is very similar to the coaches’ poll. USC has 60 of 65 second-place votes currently, and must hold onto 33 (a bare majority) in order to be assured of beating LSU.

Further BCS updates will be contained in a new post, above.