Remember last year, when USC fans were put in the uncomfortable position of rooting like hell for, of all teams, UCLA, in the last week of the season, in hopes of getting a Rose Bowl bid? (If you don’t remember, here’s a refresher.) Well, it’s going to happen again… but this time around, the hated rival/new favorite team is Notre Dame. To wit:

If we assume that USC and LSU both win on Saturday — and that the order of the two teams does not change in the polls — the Tigers will need to make up a full point on the Trojans through strength of schedule and the computer ratings. Since LSU has no hope for a significant quality-win bonus or a commanding lead in schedule strength (thanks to this past weekend’s results), the Bayou Bengals will likely need to finish ahead of Southern California in six of the seven BCS computers to make up such ground.

And because the Notre Dame-Syracuse game will be played before the Oregon State-USC game, LSU will know by kickoff whether it needs some help from the Beavers.

So says Brad Edwards in ESPN’s Road to the BCS. In simpler terms: GO IRISH!!! Hey, it works for me… for once, I can simultaneously root for my alma mater and my future law school! :)

But actually, methinks Mr. Road to the BCS has overlooked one or two other important SOS showdowns. According to Rich Tellshow, there is one other game that will definitely impact the strength-of-schedule battle, and another that might impact it. The definite player is Boise State at Hawaii, and the possible player is the MAC championship game between Bowling Green and Miami of Ohio. It goes like this:

· If Syracuse beats Notre Dame and Boise State beats Hawaii (worst-case scenario for the Trojans), LSU finishes ahead of USC in the final SOS by 0.16 points.

· If either Syracuse or Boise State, but not both, win, USC beats LSU by 0.08 points.

· If Notre Dame and Hawaii both win, USC beats LSU by 0.20 points… or 0.28 if Bowling Green wins the MAC. (The MAC title game has no effect in other scenarios.)

All of that is according to Tellshow, who, by the way, now shows a projected finish of USC 6.95, LSU 7.43. That’s just a hair closer than I reported earlier — whether because of a typographical error on my part, or a change on Tellshow’s, I’m not sure.

But either way, the bottom line remains the same. Although we should certainly root for Notre Dame, Hawaii, and Bowling Green for safety’s sake, I continue to believe that USC — assuming we beat Oregon State, of course — will stay ahead of LSU unless the Tigers pass us in one or both human polls. And as I’ve already explained here and on Tellshow’s message board, the Tigers have a lot of ground to make up. USC has sizeable leads in second-place votes in both polls (60-5 in the AP, 57-6 in the coaches).

I doubt even a big LSU win over Georgia will convince nearly 30 voters in either poll to abandon USC, unless the Trojans have an unexpectedly tight squeeze against Oregon State. If we blow out the Beavers, they aren’t going to “punish” us with a season-killing “demotion” in the polls.

Which means, at last, USC control its destiny.

Goooooo Trojans!!!!

UPDATE/CORRECTION?: According to SI.com, Jerry Palm thinks LSU is in better shape than either Brad Edwards or Rich Tellshow seemingly does (or at least, than my interpretation of Tellshow’s data led me to believe).

I’m confused now. Palm says “it’s 50-50.” He adds, “You really like [USC’s] chances if Notre Dame wins. But I really think if Syracuse wins, then LSU has the edge.”

Okay, whatever, but what I want to know is, why is everyone talking about Notre Dame-Syracuse and ignoring Boise State-Hawaii? Statistically speaking, they’re equally important, aren’t they? I know ND-Syracuse is a sexier game to talk about, but c’mon people, both the Irish and the Warriors are direct opponents for USC. What’s the difference?

Anyway, Palm also offered this surprising tidbit: “Contrary to popular belief, LSU would not have benefited from playing Florida instead of Georgia in the SEC title game. The schedule boost provided by playing the 10-2 Dawgs compensates for possibly losing the quality-win points.”