Rich Tellshow doesn’t have any new estimated BCS data yet, but a commenter on his message board contributes this summary:
Let’s say for simplicity’s sake that LSU is 2nd in all computer polls and USC is 3rd. Then the media and computer polls cancel each other out. It then comes down to strength of schedule and quality wins. Rich projects LSU’s SOS to beat out USC by a .20 margin. Also, Washington St.’s loss this week means USC gets no quality win support. Georgia may still provide LSU with quality win support if it can hang on to the top 10 in the BCS. It comes down to mere fractions.
In the end, it may come down not only to strength-of-schedule ratings, but to SEC tiebreakers. The crucial point may be who LSU plays in the conference championship game. If it’s Georgia, that’s good for USC. If it’s either Florida or Tennessee, that’s bad… unless Georgia loses to Georgia Tech next week, in which case it doesn’t really matter.
I’ll post more on that later, when I have the energy to write about the weird, wild, and wacky situation in the SEC East. But for now, just take my word for this: we need to root hard for Tennessee against Kentucky next week, and we should also root for Florida State over Florida, and Georgia Tech over Georgia.
Unless of course, Arkansas beats LSU next Friday, in which case none of this matters. Mark it on your calendar now… the day after Thanksgiving, 2:30 PM Eastern time… GO RAZORBACKS!!! (Why, oh why, must we keep rooting for these random teams?)
UPDATE: There are others who disagree about the seriousness of the LSU threat. Responding to the above-quoted LSU fan, one commenter wrote, “Forget it! USC beats Oregon State and they play Oklahoma in the Sugar Bowl. Stop the wishful thinking.”
Another commenter, responding to the title of the thread — “Who does LSU have to play in SEC Championship to pass USC?” — quipped, “LSU would have to play USC in the SEC championship game. Since that isn’t going to happen, they’re not going to pass them.”
Heh. I hope that’s right, but I await the raw data before passing judgement, and in the mean time, I will continue to plan on becoming a big Arkansas fan for a week. :)
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Categories: College Football
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November 22nd, 2003 at 11:48:07 pm
“Unless of course, Arkansas beats LSU next Friday…GO RAZORBACKS!!! (Why, oh why, must we keep rooting for these random teams?)”
>>>Heyyyy now, the Arkansas Razorbacks are *never* Random. (”Snort! Root! Bite! Rip!! EatEat…”) - Remember Grampa. Hot Springs Village rules. :) {{Semper Fi:}}
November 23rd, 2003 at 1:02:19 pm
I sure am happy that Ohio State was knocked out of contention in such a forceful way - Michigan surely deserves this Rose Bowl berth.
But… I remain convinced that we were going to pass the Buckeyes in the BCS anyway, given victories against UCLA and OSU, and do not believe LSU can catch us, even with WSU’s lose to those evil Huskies. The comment that they’d have to be playing us in the SEC championship to surpass us is right on. I could be wrong, we’ll never know, and we have to beat OSU, but:
It’s all in the math. Ohio State’s score was pretty much set - they could drop .48 from SOS, max (if they went from 13 to 1 in SOS; if I have this right, the actual change to SOS from an OSU win would be less than they will get from the loss). Their poll ranks, computer AND human, weren’t going to change; while they could theoretically gain two points by jumping to number 2 in AP and ESPN, that wasn’t going to happen with LSU and USC winning. Neither school would be looking at QW points any more, with WSU and Michigan dropped from the BCS contention.
USC, on the other hand, would gain a boost in the computer polls from becoming first a ten win team, and then an eleven win team. My SWAG for final computer standings would have OSU losing somewhere between 0 and .33, and USC gaining .5 to .83. Here, I’ll have to admit a complete inability to predict where SC’s SOS is headed, BUT, that’s the one thing that will become more clearer tomorrow.
LSU… we’ll know tomorrow, but ny prediction is that they reduce the gap by less than 50%.
I could very well be wrong on both points - passing OSU and not being threatened by LSU - but thanks to Michigan, the first is no longer a problem. We’ll see about LSU.
Thank you Michigan! If I knew “Hail to the Victors” I’d be humming it; since I don’t, it sounds like a cross between “Conquest” and “Hail to the Chief” :).