The latest official forecast track for Hurricane Isabel shows it aiming directly at the Delmarva Peninsula of Virginia, Maryland, and Delaware, about five days from now.

In its discussion, the National Hurricane Center says, “Note that the 5 day forecast position is rather close to the mid-Atlantic U.S. Coast.” As if anyone would have failed to notice.

It’s worth remembering, however, that this is the first year the Hurricane Center has even done a five-day forecast; they used to predict only 72 hours (three days) into the future. The technology has improved enough that they can now attempt a 120-hour forecast, but that doesn’t mean it can be expected to have pinpoint accuracy. Hence the wide forecast “cone” in the graphic above (a cone which, it’s worth noting, now includes New York and Connecticut). In other words, it’s simply way too soon to say what’s going to happen.

I’m going to go out on a limb, however, and make a prediction: I bet this hurricane misses land altogether and floats harmlessly out to sea (or, at the worst, hits Nova Scotia and/or Newfoundland as it weakens). I base this not on the current forecast, but on the trend of the last couple of days’ forecasts and computer tracks. A consistent forecast trend, I have observed, is sometimes a better predictor than any one forecast or computer-model run. And in this case, the models keep budging their predictions further and further to the right, and the NHC keeps following suit — and I bet that trend continues.

I think something is happening in the atmospheric dynamics — “wind is changing,” as Ghan-Buri-Ghan said in the Lord of the Rings — and the computers are slowly adjusting to it. Two or three days from now, I bet the official forecast will be calling for a near miss offshore of Cape Cod; and in the end, I bet it won’t even be very close.

That’s barely more than a hunch, and it’s going against all the conventional wisdom at the moment, but it’s my best guess based on watching these things — and watching the Hurricane Center deal with these things — for the last 14 years or so. Isabel reminds me a lot of Hurricane Hortense in 1996, which, at this point in its track, looked almost inevitably bound for the mid-Atlantic or Northeast because it was wedged between a high pressure system offshore and a trough onshore, just like Isabel is. But things changed, and Hortense ended up missing the coast by a wide margin, and I bet Isabel will, too.

On the other hand, the latest set of computer models includes one, the GFDL, that looks like a classic Long Island-Connecticut landfall track:

“All of you from Florida all the way to Maine should keep an eye on this system,” a Weather Channel forecaster just said.

We will just have to wait and see. My “prediction” is really just the marginally educated guesswork of an amateur. So who knows? I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: Stay tuned.

The Mooona Lisa. :)

Updates: UConn lost. Notre Dame is losing badly. USC is winning comfortably. Isabel is back up to 160 mph, Cat. 5, and the latest computer models suggest a sharper right turn than previously expected. Meanwhile, here are Sara, Jen, and Krista on carousel.

We’re on a ferris wheel. Here are Krista and Sara.

Hello there.

Everywhere there’s lots of piggies living piggy lives / You can see them out for dinner with their piggy wives / Clutching forks and knives to eat their bacon :)

A llama at the Big E. :)

I’m heading up to Springfield, Massachusetts today for the Big E festival with high-school friends Jen and Sara, and Sara’s girlfriend Krista. Perhaps I’ll post some photos of that later on.

In other news, USC is playing Hawaii today at 4:00 PM EDT. Also, at 3:30 PM, my next possible alma mater, Notre Dame, has a big game against rival Michigan.

And in a huge game for new Division 1A “powerhouse” UConn (hey, they do have the sixth-longest winning streak in the nation!), the Huskies play at noon at their new East Hartford home, Rentscher Field, against Boston College — a battle between New England’s only two Division 1A football teams! Go U-C-O-N-N! UConn! UConn! UConn! :)

Hurricane Isabel is down to “only” 150 mph, a very strong Category Four, but having now completed an eyewall replacement cycle, “some slight strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours.”

As for the track, this comment in the latest discussion is very interesting: “All of the global and regional models have had a distinct right-of-track bias by as much as 10 degrees…and each model run has been a little farther west and slower.” I have often found, in observing hurricanes and hurricane forecasting, that the trend of Hurricane Center forecasts can be more important than any one forecast track. If Isabel is trending to the left of the forecasts, the Carolinas had better watch out.

On the other hand, there is still disagreement among the computer models. The GFDL continues to call for a track that could easily bring the storm up the coast toward New England. “The official forecast was adjusted slightly to the left of and slower than the previous forecast… However…it is still too early to determine when or where Isabel will make landfall.” (Notice they’re not saying “if.”)

Technically speaking, Hurricane Isabel is still a Category Five hurricane at this hour, with winds of 160 miles per hour, tying it for third all-time among the longest-lasting Cat. 5 storms ever recorded in the Atlantic (at 30 hours). But really, the National Hurricane Center is cheating here. “I very much doubt that Isabel still has winds of [160 mph],” the NHC says in its 11:00 PM advisory.

The Hurricane Center notes that satellite intensity estimates are way down, and dry air appears to be infiltrating the system. “But since another aircraft will be in the hurricane in just three hours…we will wait for confirmation of this apparent weakening trend,” the discussion says. In other words, expect Isabel to “suddenly” weaken when the 5:00 AM advisory comes out.

Nevertheless, this is a very intense and, if it hits shore, a very dangerous hurricane. Which, of course, leads us to the obvious question: Where is it going? It seems the NHC’s computer models disagree. The UKMET model takes Isabel on a track that would seem likely to result in a landfall in the Carolinas; the GFS and NOGAPS models suggest a course that could take Isabel directly toward New York and New England; and the GFDL turns it north sharply enough that it might go out to sea.

The major players in this drama are a trough of low pressure offshore of the Carolinas and an upper-level high pressure system off New England. The low pressure system will tend to block Isabel from moving too far west, while the high pressure system will tend to keep it from going too far east. Both will push it north. This is just the sort of situation where that rare hurricane track scenario — a northward up-the-coast move directly toward New England — could quite plausibly happen. Indeed, I would venture that Isabel has the best chance of hitting New England of any major hurricane since Edouard and Hortense in 1996. (Those storms both missed, but the meteorological conditions were very close.)

But it’s way too soon to say for sure. It will all depend on the exact timing of the motions of those upper-level systems. The NHC explains: “The GFS and NOGAPS models are very similar in holding [the low-pressure trough off the Carolinas] in place almost a day longer than the UKMET…with the result that the former two models turn Isabel much more sharply northward than the UKMET.” If the GFS and NOGAPS are right, I might be photo-blogging images of hurricane-force winds in about a week. If the UKMET is right, look out, Carolinas. Which one will be right? We’ll just have to wait and see.

Wherever Isabel hits, it will very likely be weaker then that it is now. Hopefully, it will be considerably weaker.

By the way, the Hurricane Center said earlier today that it now believes Isabel may actually have been stronger yesterday than 160 mph. I’m guessing maybe 170 or 175? Wow.

I am heading to Connecticut for the weekend, on a Metro-North train in Stamford now.

You know what I love most about the New York Post? Its subtlety. :)

Here’s a QuickTime time-lapse video of the sun setting and the red, white, and blue lights coming on last night at the Empire State Building, from the Jobs & the City webcam.