It’s a beautiful, crystal clear day here in NYC, as seen from my office. It won’t stay that way all week — but it also looks more and more like it won’t devolve into hurricane conditions, either. Isabel’s closest forecasted approach is western Pennsylvania.

It’s official:

At 11 am EDT…1500z…a Hurricane Watch is in effect from Little River Inlet South Carolina to Chincoteague Virginia…including the Pamlico and Albemarle sounds…Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach Maryland…and the tidal Potomac.

I was exactly right on the time, and on the northern endpoint of the Hurricane Watch area, but I was way off on the southern endpoint. I thought my initial prediction of Cape Fear, North Carolina, was too far south; turns out it was too far north. Anyway:

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area…generally within 36 hours.

Hurricane warnings may be required later today or tonight. … A tropical storm watch may be required north of the Hurricane Watch area later today or tonight.

Okay, time for another prediction. You heard it here first: Hurricane Warnings will be issued from Morehead City, NC to the tip of the Delmarva Peninsula (I don’t have my mapping software close at hand, so I don’t know the name of that point, but it’s in Virginia) at 11:00 PM tonight.

Also at that time, a Tropical Storm Warning will be added to the Hurricane Watch from the tip of the Delmarva to Chincoteague, and a Tropical Storm Watch will be issued from Chincoteague up to Cape May, New Jersey.

The 11:00 AM discussion is not out yet.

UPDATE: I was paying so much attention to the watches, I failed to notice this significant passage in the pubilc advisory:

Maximum sustained winds have decreased and are now near 105 mph…with higher gusts. This makes Isabel a category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. While some further weakening is expected today…conditions could become favorable for restrengthening prior to landfall.

It will be interesting to read the elaboration on that in the discussion. It sounds like the NHC is maybe leaning towards Scenario 2 now.

Okay, back to work. (I posted this while waiting for various computer processes to finish, but now that electronic grace period is over and I have no excuse for not working!)

No Hurricane Watches yet, as of the 5:00 AM advisory, but the 11:00 will be out soon, and I continue to suspect that will be the hour when the NHC sounds the alarm. I wonder if CNN will issue a breaking-news alert when the watches go up.

As of 5:00, “Satellite imagery and Air Force reserve hurricane hunter data indicate that Isabel has become quite disorganized during the past 6-12 hr. … The maximum winds are reduced to [115 mph]…and this is likely generous.”

The track forecast remains the same, but:

The intensity forecast is very problematic… Large-scale models suggest that the current shear could continue for another 12-24 hr. Beyond that time…the models all forecast the development of a negatively-tilted shortwave trough over the southeastern United States. While this trough may not reduce the shear…it could provide a better outflow pattern and dynamical forcing to sustain or strengthen the storm. On the other hand…Isabel’s broad wind field suggests that the storm might be slow to respond to a more favorable environment…and thus might move ashore before significant strengthening could occur. There are three possible scenarios. First…continued weakening due to shear as forecast by the SHIPS model. Second…continued short-term weakening follwed by re-intensification as Isabel approaches the coast. Third…a relatively steady-state hurricane until landfall. The intensity forecast will go with the third scenario at this time.

Stay tuned for the 11:00 advisory.

Our growing and expanding emergency supplies cabinet. :)

Hurricane Isabel has weakened substantially in the last 24 hours, from an extremely strong Category Four with 155 mph winds to a moderate Category Three with 120 mph winds. Needless to say, this is very good news. The latest satellite pictures tell the story — an asymmetrical hurricane, far less organized than during the previous few days, with no well-defined eye:

Whenever she hits lands, it appears that Isabel will not be the sort of total catastrophe that we feared a few days ago, barring an unexpected bout of rapid re-strengthening (and that cannot be totally ruled out, especially with the always-dangerous Gulf Stream still lying ahead, but the atmospheric conditions make it seem unlikely). Isabel is forecast to make landfall with 115 mph winds — the minimum threshold of Cat. 3, or “major hurricane,” status — and that seems like a bit of a stretch to me. I think the NHC is being cautious, and I bet the hurricane will be at 100 mph at landfall if it hits North Carolina, Virginia or the Delmarva; 85 mph or less, if it hits New Jersey or further north. (Then again, my bold predictions for this hurricane don’t have a promising history, so we shall see.)

The forecast track has shifted ever so slightly to the left, and a direct hit on Cape Hatteras is now expected at around midday Thursday. As if to confirm that Hatteras is officially the target zone, The Weather Channel’s perennially bug-eyed hurricane fanatic Jim Cantore is heading there now, and will begin live reports tomorrow at 7:00 AM.

However, it’s too soon for people further up the coast to breathe easy just yet. The hurricane is expected to slow down for a while before speeding north, and speed changes like that are often a recipe for track-forecasting trouble. The consistency in the NHC forecasts over the last few days has been very impressive, and the computer models have really converged around a North Carolina or Virginia landfall (even the BAM model has fallen into line), so at this point I would be surprised if a drastic change were to occur. But I won’t feel fully confident in the forecast track until Isabel begins accelerating toward shore in the direction that we expect it to — and that’s not supposed to happen until late Wednesday night or early Thursday morning.

Interestingly, the westerly shear that weakened Isabel today has made its left side much less powerful than its right. (No political analogies, please, Andrew.) If this continues to be the case, it means the rainiest and windiest conditions will be from the landfall point north and east; south and west of the target zone, it won’t be so bad. So a landfall in southern or central New Jersey could bring significant wind and rain to New York, and thus might be the best-case scenario for me: an opportunity to take cool pictures and experience stormy weather without being in serious danger. (My co-workers were shocked today when I said I would stay home in the event of a direct hit — they figured I would love to be on the 13th floor, on the front lines, taking pictures. Which I would, if it isn’t too dangerous to be in Lower Manhattan at all.)

A Hurricane Watch will probably be issued tomorrow morning — I suspect 11:00 AM — and I expect the watch area will be somewhat narrower than I predicted yesterday. I’m guessing it will stretch from Cape Fear, North Carolina to Chincoteague, Virginia, with a Tropical Storm Watch extending north to Cape May, New Jersey.

UPDATE: You know what, Cape Fear might be a little too far south. Maybe they’ll start the Hurricane Watch at someplace near Surf City, NC, or maybe even Morehead City, NC — perhaps with a Tropical Storm Watch extending down to Cape Fear (though my instinct tells me there won’t be a Tropical Storm Watch south of the Hurricane Watch, given the current structure of the hurricane).

The U.S. Navy is moving its ships out of Hurricane Isabel’s way. That reminds me: hey, Osama! I found a great vacation spot for you! We’ll put you up, all expenses paid, in a beautiful house on stilts along one of those barrier islands in North Carolina. It’ll be great… there won’t be any military nearby or anything… just you, all by yourself, enjoying the beautiful ocean surf… why, you’ll be absolutely swimming in peace and quiet… and you’ll actually be able to feel those winds of change, blowing toward that Islamic revolution of yours…

As the comments on the post below suggest, the Ninth Circuit’s ruling delaying the California recall has really touched a nerve, reviving the old debate over Bush v. Gore. And understandably so, because the central issue is the same — should the federal courts intervene in a state election in name of “equal protection”? — but the political motivations are switched, which always makes for a fascinating and tricky debate.

Too tricky, I predict, for the U.S. Supreme Court to wade into. Faced with the inevitable appeal of this ruling, the Supremes would seem to have three options: 1) overturn Bush v. Gore as bad law, and wipe the Ninth Circuit’s ruling away with the same brush stroke; 2) reaffirm and solidify Bush v. Gore by extending that case’s logic to this situation, and thus uphold the Ninth Circuit’s ruling; or 3) issue some sort of tortured ruling that leaves Bush v. Gore intact but strikes down the Ninth Circuit’s ruling.

Clearly there’s no way they’ll choose Option 1, which would utterly undermine stare decisis, not to mention the legitimacy of a sitting president (in some people’s eyes, at least). I would be stunned if they choose Option 2, because it was clear from the text of Bush v. Gore that the justices were not at all comfortable with their logic in that case — they virtually begged future courts not to use the case as precedent, which is of course absurd — so they will have no desire to extend that logic to a new situation.

That leaves them with Option 3. But the last thing the Supremes will have any desire to do is reopen the wounds of the 2000 decision, both inside the court and outside it. I can almost see and hear, in my mind’s eye, the blistering dissent from the liberal justices and the howling protests from Democrats and assorted anti-Bush commentators if SCOTUS hands down a decision that would be so easy to criticize as politically motivated. The Court would be dragging its perceived legitimacy right down into the dumps again if it were to take that route.

Therefore, I suspect the Supremes will choose Option 4: refuse to take the case altogther. Deny certiorari, and let the Ninth Circuit’s decision stand without comment. Keep SCOTUS’s hands clean, and let the ramifications of Bush v. Gore be hammered out on some other day, by some other court.

There is one fly in that ointment, however. It only takes four justices, not five, to decide to take a case. Thus, if the four liberal justices decide they want to make life miserable for the Federalism Five, they could vote in a bloc to take the case despite the conservatives’ desire to sweep it under the rug.

But I doubt that will happen. I predict the U.S. Supreme Court doesn’t touch this thing with a ten-foot pole, and the California recall is delayed until March… and Gray Davis is still recalled, and Cruz Bustamente becomes governor of California. :)

The Hurricane Center backs up another point that I made yesterday, that a landfall in the Northeast could be considered the “best-case” scenario in the grand scheme of things because Isabel would weaken more before hitting land:

It should be noted that the coastal shelf water along the mid-Atlantic coast is rather cold…and any track east of Cape Hatteras that would keep the hurricane over that water would likely produce more weakening than currently forecast.

Still no major changes to the forecast track, but Isabel has weakened slightly to 150 mph, “and the storm could be a little weaker than this.” It’s unclear if this is the beginning of a weakening trend, or just another temporary “fluctuation.”

Finally, my photos of Thursday’s September 11 anniversary commemorations in New York City are online. Here are a few of my favorites:

In that last photo, note the planet Mars to the left of the Tribute in Light beams.

I also have a pair of new audio files online: bells1.wav, a recording of the St. Peter’s Church memorial bell ringing, and bells2.wav, a much louder recording of me ringing the bell. (Members of the public were lining up to ring it.)

And, of course, you can view all my audio-posts and photo-posts from my cell phone, blogged during the day as the events unfolded, in my 9/11/03 blog category.

Anyway, without further ado, here’s my full, 103-picture photo album:

(more…)

The latest predicted track for Isabel:

I wonder: will the government relocate to its emergency terrorist-proof bunker location if a direct hit on Washington, D.C. by Isabel continues to look likely? A strike by a major hurricane could be just as bad as a terrorist attack, if not worse. It will be interesting to see what steps will be taken, in the event that this forecast track holds true.

On an unrelated note, the latter portions of the forecast track have shifted slightly to the left, so that the hurricane is now forecasted to pass directly over Buffalo.

The 11:00 PM is out, and again, no major changes. It continues to look bad for the Chesapeake region, if the official forecast holds. But the Hurricane Center notes the uncertainty of that forecast, for a reason that I mentioned earlier today:

Since the track is forecast to approach the coast at a small angle…a small change in direction could result in a landfall well to the north of the mid Atlantic coast.

The NHC also says ominously, “Only slow weakening is forecast for the next 4 days…so Isabel is likely to still be quite dangerous at landfall.”

The 5:00 PM advisory on Isabel is out. There are no major changes to report. The hurricane is still at 155 miles per hour — 1 mph short of Category Five status — and “the official forecast track is just an extension of the previous track,” the National Hurricane Center says.

The four-day forecast position now puts Isabel over the North Carolina-Virginia border, right on the coast, with 120 mile-per-hour sustained winds. The five-day forecast position has it in the middle of Lake Ontario with 40 mph winds (having weakened over land for a day). Which means that even my readers in inland Buffalo, New York need to be preparing for tropical storm conditions!!

The computer models are actually calling for landfall a little further north — in the Delmarva or New Jersey instead of North Carolina or southern Virginia — than the official NHC forecast predicts. The forecast “is a little to the west and slightly faster than the model consensus,” the NHC admits. The Hurricane Center apparently thinks the computer models have it slightly wrong because they aren’t properly interpreting the data on the offshore high-pressure system. We shall see.

The various computer models predicting Isabel’s future movements are beginning to “cluster” around the forecast track, which is usually a sign of increased confidence that the forecast will be correct, or close to correct. The models have stopped “trending” to the right, and a Weather Channel forecaster said this morning that, as they get a better handle on the movements of the high pressure system to Isabel’s east, it looks less and less likely that the monster hurricane will miss the East Coast altogether. So my prediction of yesterday appears to be quite a bit less likely to come true than it did 16 hours ago. (And, I must admit, it was always rather dubious.) As the Hurricane Center puts it:

Unfortunately…the models are now in excellent agreement with Isabel making landfall along the central U.S. East coast in about 4 days. There is still uncertainty on where the exact landfall could occur since the developing central U.S. trough could deepen and dig southward more than is forecast by the global models…which could lead a more northward motion and landfall farther up the east coast than what is currently forecast. Unfortunately…all of the model guidance agree on a large and strong north-south oriented ridge remaining east of Isabel…which should prevent the powerful hurricane from recurving out to sea. Landfall along the U.S mid-Atlantic coast somewhere between North Carolina and New Jersey between 4 or 5 days is appearing more and more likely.

As stated above, there is still a great deal of uncertainty about where exactly Isabel’s most devastating impact will be — not so much because of inherent forecasting difficulties, but because of the angle at which it will be approaching the coast, getting closer and closer to parallel the further north it goes. Looking at the predicted Wednesday position and comparing it to possible landfall locations, there is only about a 30-degree difference, angle-wise, between a Cape Hatteras landfall and a central Long Island landfall.

In other words, very slight changes in Isabel’s path could shift the target zone hundred of miles north or south. Unless the track uncertainties decrease greatly in the next 24-36 hours, I suspect we will be seeing a very large Hurricane Watch area when the NHC first sounds the alarm, which will probably happen late Monday or (more likely) Tuesday. I wouldn’t be surprised if the watch zone stretches all the way from southern North Carolina to somewhere along the Jersey Shore, with a Tropical Storm Watch reaching out onto Long Island.

Hopefully, Isabel will weaken substantially before it hits anywhere, and there is a decent chance of that. The NHC brings it down to 125 miles-per-hour before landfall — that’s a medium-strength Category Three. It would nice to see it get down to 110 or 115 mph (still no walk in the park by any means, but not capable of the utter devastation that a landfall at Isabel’s current strength would cause).

But if she doesn’t weaken drastically, and if the out-to-sea track is indeed ruled out, there is no “good” forecast, no “good” track for Isabel to take. (The best-case scenario might be a Long Island landfall, since that would give the hurricane more time to weaken, especially since it would have to spend some time over cooler waters before hitting. But what’s “best-case” in the grand scheme of things would still be very bad news for Long Island and Connecticut.) There are, however, plenty of “bad” tracks. Indeed, if Isabel remains at least a Category Four, or even a strong Category Three, it raises the possibility of several nightmare scenarios that hurricane experts have long been concerned about.

One of those nightmares is a landfall just to the west of Cheasapeake Bay; in that scenario, the hurricane’s “right-front quadrant,” always the strongest portion because the forward motion is aligned with the counterclockwise circulation, would bring an enormous storm surge and devastating flooding all up and down the bay. The current official forecast raises that spectre in a big way:

A tiny bit further to the left, and that storm surge could come directly up the Potomac River, toward D.C. A little further to the right, and a similar flooding disaster could happen in Delaware Bay. And then there’s another nightmare scenario: a landfall, dare I say it, just to the west of New York City. It is not hard to imagine the devastation that a 30-foot storm surge would cause in Lower Manhattan.

I’ll put it this way: If Isabel and its storm surge are heading my way come Thursday or Friday, I won’t be going to work. My apartment in Washington Heights — note the key word there, “heights” — is going to be a lot safer than Tribeca, near the island’s flat southern tip. I suggest that any of my readers who are located between the Carolinas and Long Island start thinking along similar lines: where will you go, what will you do, how will you prepare, if this monster storm heads your way? (This means you, Dane!) The time for disaster preparation is now. (Now might also be a good time to buy a few canned goods and batteries. Beat the rush, as they say.)

Earlier today, the Weather Channel showed an animated high-seas forecast map showing an “orange” zone of 20- to 25-foot waves engulfing much of the East Coast by Wednesday and Thursday. So this is not going to be a good beach week for anybody. Another thing to consider is this: wherever Isabel goes, there will probably be strong winds all up and down the coast throughout the latter part of this week, because of the tight pressure gradient between the high pressure system to the north and Isabel to the south. I’m not talking about hurricane-force winds, but the sort of high winds and wind gusts that you might expect on a very blustery winter day.

Well, anyway. I need to stop posting now, and pack for my return trip to New York, having spent this weekend in Connecticut. I’ve been working on this post for almost two hours!! :) But rest assured, there will be plenty of updates on this hurricane in the days ahead. Maybe even some live, on-the-scene updates. We shall see.

I neglected to include a satellite image of Isabel in my last post — a glaring omission, given the extraordinary appearance of this extraordinary hurricane. Not only is Isabel intense, tightly wound, and very symmetrical, but it is also a geographically small hurricane with a geographically huge eye, 50 miles across. Check it out: