THOMSEN’S PERFECT STREAK BROKEN,
BUT HOLDS ONTO FIRST PLACE FOR NOW

Nobody’s perfect.

After an astounding 32-for-32 record in the first round, Matt Thomsen went 5 for 8 in predicting the first day of the second round of the women’s NCAA tournament, and saw one of his Final Four picks eliminated. But, at least for now, he’s still holding onto the lead in The Living Room Times’s sixth annual NCAA women’s pool.

Thomsen has 195 points out of a possible 216 through the tournament’s first 40 games. After successfully predicting every first-round game, including the two upsets — by a #9 seed and a #11 seed — Thomsen yesterday failed to predict mild upsets by #5 Georgia over #4 Rutgers and by #6 Minnesota over #3 Stanford. He also predicted one major upset that did not occur: #7 Virginia Tech over #2 Purdue.

The Minnesota-Stanford error was the most painful for Thomsen. His bracket had the Cardinal advancing all the way to the Final Four.

Thomsen, the 2000 Times men’s pool winner, is eight points ahead of the second-place contestant, Rick Boeckler, who went 6-2 yesterday and now has 187 points. James Dixon, who also went 6-2 yesterday, is third, 12 points behind Thomsen with 182 points. Men’s pool co-leader Larry Caplin is fourth in the women’s pool with 178 points after a 4-4 day yesterday.

Pentagon says ongoing fighting near Narjaf might have killed 300 to 500 Iraqi troops, could be largest battle so far.

U.S. troops are using dolphins as mine detectors. Animal-rights activists are, not suprisingly, upset about this.

Darwin, from SeaQuest DSV, was heard to comment, “I’m scared. People bad.”

Elements of U.S. 7th Cavalry cross Euphrates River, opening line of U.S. troops moving toward Baghdad from Basra north to An Najaf.

My computer has come back from the dead — for the moment, at least — and TobyCam is back online!

Some guys get all the breaks.

THOMSEN LEADS AFTER PERFECT FIRST ROUND

Matt Thomsen had a perfect first round and leads the Living Room Times’s sixth annual women’s pool with the maximum possible 160 points. Three players are tied with 150. For complete standings, click here.

I don’t have time to do a full update right now because I need to get to sleep. What’s more, Becky and I are driving back from Phoenix to Los Angeles tomorrow morning and afternoon, and then I’ll be going to class and hanging out with my ex-roommate Dave, who is in town, tomorrow evening. So, don’t expect any women’s pool updates for a while. Sorry.

(Also, my apologies to those of you to whom I owe e-mails. You will hear from me eventually, I swear.)

CAPLIN, VALE STILL TIED FOR LEAD, BUT RIVALS CLOSE IN;
‘SCENARIO GENERATOR’ SUGGESTS VALE IS THE FAVORITE
Vale would win in nearly one-fourth of 32,768 possible scenarios;
nine contestants already mathematically eliminated from winning

Two surprises in the South region tightened things up on the Living Room Times men’s pool leaderboard Sunday, but Larry Caplin and Justin Vale are co-leaders at day’s end for the third consecutive night despite going just 4-for-8 on the day. They have 217 points out a possible 272 through the end of the tournament’s second round.

Dan Port is third with 214, and Kristen Everson is fourth with 212. After being ten or more points behind, they were boosted, respectively, by Xavier’s upset of Maryland and Michigan State’s upset of Florida.

Yet although Port and Everson are increasingly breathing down their necks, Caplin and Vale will remain in the lead through at least next Thursday, when the Sweet Sixteen begins. They have dominated the pool for the last two days, and indeed, Caplin has been in first place — either by himself or tied with one or more others — for almost the entire tournament. The only exception was a brief period Saturday afternoon when Vale had sole possession of first place.

Vale is the favorite to win the pool, according to a “scenario generator” computer program that calculates each contestant’s chance of winning by testing each of the possible tournament scenarios and determing who would win. The scenario generator was not available until this evening because there were too many possible scenarios for the computer to calculate. But now, with 48 games played and just 15 left, the total number of scenarios remaining is down to “just” 32,768.

Of those 32,768 scenarios for how the games might go, Vale would win in 7,649 of them, which translates to a 23.3 percent chance — though this mathematical analysis assumes that all possible game outcomes are equally likely, regardless of seed. Vale’s bracket is distinctive for predicting a Final Four appearance by #3-seed Marquette and a national championship for #2 Kansas.

After Vale, the next most likely winners, according to the scenario generator, are Port (8.1 percent), Everson (7.1 percent), 14th-place Ben Benack (6.5 percent), 17th-place Kristy McCray (6.2 percent), 6th-place Ryan McBride (5.9 percent), and co-leader Caplin (5.6 percent). Caplin’s chances are hurt by his prediction that Mississippi State, which lost in the first round to Butler, would reach the Final Four.

Some contestants have a zero percent chance of winning. According to the scenario generator, nine have already been mathematically eliminated: Ethan Rector, Lori Berger, Nick Sowers, Barbara Maier, pool administrator Brendan Loy, Loy’s girlfriend Becky Zak, Zak’s mother Ginny Zak, Zak’s cat Toby Zak, and Jenn Castelhano, who won the 2001 men’s pool and 2002 women’s pool.

Click here for a complete rundown of everyone’s mathematical chances of winning, according to the scenario generator.

In the more immediate term, Josh Rubin is fifth on the leaderboard with 205 points, followed by McBride and Cam McLachlan, tied for sixth with 204. Jeff Cultrera, Kevin Hauschulz, Matt Kagan, Mike Wiser, and Ted Zak are tied for eighth place with 202. Defending champion Tom Greca is alone in 13th with 198 points.

#6-seed Maryland’s win over #3 Xavier this afternoon mathematically eliminated me from winning my own pool.

Even if everything happens exactly as I predicted for the rest of the men’s tournament — including Butler reaching the Elite Eight, Syracuse advancing to the Final Four, and Texas winning the national title — I can finish no higher than second place, six points behind Larry Caplin.

D’oh.

THOMSEN, STILL PERFECT, GRABS WOMEN’S POOL LEAD
Caplin, Vale still deadlocked atop men’s pool

Matt Thomsen, the 2000 men’s pool champion, took sole possession of the lead in The Living Room Times’s sixth annual women’s pool Sunday afternoon.

Thomsen is perfect through the tournament’s first 24 games, of which only one has been an upset. He has the maximum possible 120 points.

Josh Rubin, James Peters, Rick Boeckler, and men’s pool co-leader Larry Caplin are five points back, with 115 points. Ben Benack and James Dixon have 110. Five contestants are tied with 105.

Meanwhile, Caplin and Justin Vale continue to lead the Times’s eighth annual men’s pool with 203 points apiece through 43 games. They are 2-for-3 today, both failing to predict Butler’s upset win.

Dan Port is third with 193 points, followed by Kristen Everson with 191.

Only three pool contestants — Brendan Loy, Becky Zak, and Vikki Wagner — correctly predicted Butler’s Cinderella run to the Sweet Sixteen.

In both pools, each first-round game is worth five points, and each second-round game is worth seven.

The #12-seed Butler Bulldogs are headed to the Sweet Sixteen — just like I predicted!

Butler beat Louisville today, 79-71, in its second straight upset. The Horizon League champion Bulldogs are the lone mid-major representative in the Sweet Sixteen, having vanquished Mississippi State of the SEC on Friday, and now Louisville of Conference USA.

More importantly, they’ve validated my latest Sweet Sixteen Cinderella pick, placing them alongside the Valparaisos, Gonzagas, Kent States, and Southern Illinoises of previous years.

After yesterday’s Gonzaga-Arizona game produced a video of Becky and me experiencing the agony of defeat, today we got to feel the thrill of victory instead. Here’s a video (.mov, 180 KB) of us reacting to Butler’s game-clinching basket and foul.

By the way, I picked Butler to win once more — advancing all the way to the Elite Eight. Which means, next weekend, I’ll be rooting hard against Oklahoma!

All six aboard killed in Air Force medical evacuation helicopter crash in central-eastern Afghanistan.

As many as 10 U.S. Marines killed in combat at Nasiriyah in what U.S. official calls “sharpest engagement of the war thus far.”

NO WOMEN’S UPSETS YET; FOUR STILL PERFECT IN POOL

In a tournament that has not yet produced a single upset, five contestants are tied for the lead in The Living Room Times’s sixth annual NCAA women’s pool with perfect 17-0 prediction records.

Rick Boeckler, Josh Rubin, Matt Thomsen, and men’s pool co-leader Larry Caplin each have the maximum possible 85 points through 17 games. Each first-round game is worth five points.

James Dixon and James Peters, who were tied for the lead through 12 games, each fell out of the first-place tie because of a mistake last night. Dixon picked #11-seed BYU over #6 Colorado; Peters picked #11 Miami over #6 New Mexico. As in all women’s games so far, the higher-seeded teams won.

Dixon and Peters are now tied with Ben Benack, Matt Kagan, Sara Hamilton, and Kevin Hauschulz, five points behind the leaders in a six-way tie for fifth place, with 80 points and 16-1 records. Seven contestants are tied for eleventh place with 75 points.

Pentagon: Some U.S. soldiers killed, others captured in south central Iraq. Earlier reports indicated fewer than 10 troops were missing.