Finally, a solid Al Qaeda-Iraq connection?

Meanwhile, in basketball, both #1 seeds are leading, but neither underdog (hehe… underdog, indeed) is out of it yet. Go UnderBulldogs! Go UnderHuskies!

Close games so far. UConn leads, 8-5 with 15:28 to go in the first half, and Butler leads, 19-18 with 6:17 left. In case you missed it, here are the pool implications of tonight’s games.

With apologies to Toby, I’m rooting for dogs today. The #12-seeded Butler Bulldogs, up against #1-seed Oklahoma right now, are my Cinderella pick of the year — I predicted they would reach the Elite Eight, so I’m pulling hard for them against the Sooners. And the UConn Huskies are, of course, my home-state team.

Go Bulldogs! Go Huskies!

Was the Kuwait City explosion caused by a missile or a bomb? Nobody seems to know yet. “It’s totally unclear what the cause of this explosion is,” Wolf Blitzer says.

I’m starting a new blog post here. Click here to read my previous updates, from between 2:50 and 3:20 PM Pacific time.

Blitzer says eyewitnesses “think they saw” a missile coming in from Iraq’s Al Faw peninsula.

UPDATE, 3:32 PM: The Command Post, a blogger-run web page that updates the latest war news quite quickly, has a report on what CNN’s Sanjay Gupta said. The author, John, asserts, “It seems unlikely that a terrorist would intentionally detonate an explosive that would cause no injuries.” True, but it also seems unlikely that Saddam Hussein would intentionally launch a missile that would cause no injuries. Perhaps the best explanation is “irregular” forces in southern Iraq?

UPDATE, 3:34 PM: CNN is showing Abu Dhabi TV pictures of damage at the mall. There are holes in the ceiling that could perhaps have come from a falling missile. But the pictures thus far aren’t showing anything terribly definitive or interesting.

UPDATE, 3:35 PM: Now Gupta says eyewitnesses say that something landed in the canal nearby… and the explosion “went straight upward and then came right back down on the shopping mall” without damaging the retaining wall. Huh?

UPDATE, 3:36 PM: Officials on the scene are not wearing gas masks, and there is no sign of chemical or biological weapons, Gupta says.

UPDATE, 3:40 PM: This website has some photos of the Souk Sharq mall, if you scroll about halfway down the page.

UPDATE, 3:44 PM: This picture indicates the Souk Sharq mall has a Body Shop. Hmm. If a missile blew up the Body Shop, broke open a bunch of perfume bottles and lotion containers, created a combination of odors that were never meant to be mixed together, and released their noxious combined fumes into the air, would that count as a chemical attack?

UPDATE, 3:47 PM: No injuries at the mall… “but the Muzak system was tragically lost,” one wiseass blogger comments on a Command Post update.

UPDATE, 3:50 PM: All or most of a pedestrian bridge over the canal is gone, Gupta reports, adding support to the theory that the missile (or something) exploded in the water.

The notion of an Iraqi missile fired somewhat vaguely into downtown Kuwait City, and hitting a canal and incidentally damaging a closed shopping mall, makes a lot more sense to me than a deliberate attack on a closed shopping mall by either terrorists or Saddamites.

“ABC Radio is reporting that a tail section of a rocket was found at the site,” according to another Command Post comment.

UPDATE, 4:02 PM: Fark.com has lots of comments about this. A lot of them aren’t very intelligent. A few are clever, however. “Hopefully this won’t lead to war,” writes one farker. “Holy Shi’ite,” exlaims another. “If they damaged starbucks or the gap…it’s gloves off time,” a third states.

UPDATE, 4:06 PM: “A missile fell into the sea and exploded near a major shopping mall in Kuwait City early Saturday, but officials said it caused no injuries and little damage,” the Associated Press reports.

UPDATE, 4:09 PM: All right, basketball time. I’m going to stop updating this Kuwait City post now. I’ll start a new post above if events warrant.

Go UConn!!! Go Butler!!!

A missile struck the center of Kuwait City early Saturday, Kuwaiti authorities told CNN.

Note: These CNN breaking-news alerts are automatically forwarded here from my e-mail inbox. As you can read above and below, there is doubt about whether this was a bomb or a missile. Presumably CNN will send out another breaking news alert if the known facts change, and if so, that alert will also appear on this page automatically.

Wolf Blitzer is reporting that there was an explosion a few minutes ago in Kuwait City, and live pictures show smoke rising from the skyline of downtown. Looks like maybe a terrorist attack, though an Iraqi missile strike is also possible. Hmm.

UPDATE, 2:56 PM: Now Wolf Blitzer is saying that Kuwaiti officials are initially saying it was a missile strike on downtown Kuwait City.

UPDATE, 2:58 PM: He adds: “We’re trying to find out precisely where, precisely how much damage, and precisely what’s going on.” Heh.

UPDATE, 3:00 PM: Blitzer says the missile was coming in at a very low angle, which may be the reason anti-aircraft Patriot missiles didn’t get it and air raid sirens didn’t go off.

A random thought: if, by chance, it contained a chemical or biological warhead, how long would it take before we’d know that?

UPDATE, 3:05 PM: None of the major networks are breaking into programming right now to report on events in Kuwait City.

UPDATE, 3:06 PM: Wolf Blitzer said the bomb hit a popular shopping mall. But, uh, it’s like 2:00 AM there, isn’t it? Do people shop at that hour?

UPDATE, 3:09 PM: “We’re not 100 percent convinced yet that it was a missile. That’s what Kuwaiti officials are saying.” –Wolf Blitzer

UPDATE, 3:13 PM: It was the Souk Sharq mall, described in this article as “Kuwait’s premier mall,” that was hit.

UPDATE, 3:14 PM: CNN’s Dr. Sanjay Gupta, on the scene, says the explosion “appears to have come from the ground,” not from the air — i.e., not a missile. He calls it “a very, very significant explosion.” Now everyone is running, he says. He doesn’t know why. Do they expect another explosion??

UPDATE, 3:16 PM: He added that there is debris everywhere, but he doesn’t see any injuries. No ambulances racing around, just a bunch waiting around. Duh, stupid terrorists, nobody shops at 2:00 AM. But anyway, good news there.

UPDATE, 3:20 PM: Gupta adds that there is water (a harbor, I guess?) 100 meters away from the mall.

Updates continue above.

A Turkish Airlines flight from Istanbul to Ankara has been hijacked with about 200 people on board.

VALE GUARANTEED TO RETAIN FIRST PLACE TODAY;
GRECA, 15 OTHERS WERE ELIMINATED YESTERDAY

Regardless of who wins today’s four games, 15-year-old Rockville High School freshman Justin Vale will remain in first place in The Living Room Times’s eighth annual NCAA men’s pool through the end of the Sweet Sixteen.

Vale leads by ten over his nearest competitor, and because today’s games feature a number of underdogs that few pool contestants picked, there are limited opportunities for others to gain ground on him.

For example, although former co-leader Larry Caplin, a 59-year-old uncle of Becky Zak, is just ten points (one Sweet Sixteen game) behind Vale, he cannot gain any ground today, because both he and Vale picked Texas and Syracuse to win, and Caplin’s other picks — Florida and Mississippi State — were eliminated from the tournament in earlier rounds. That means the best he can hope for is to remain ten points behind, and even that would require an upset win by Butler.

But there are some contestants who can gain ground on Vale today, if the results roll their way. For instance, if UConn and Maryland win, James Peters, presently 23 points behind Vale in ninth place, would jump into second place, three points back. If Maryland, Butler, and Auburn win, USC senior Dan Port would climb from a third-place tie, 13 points behind Vale, into second place himself, also three points back. Combine those two scenarios, and Peters and Port could be tied for second at the end of the day.

On the other hand, if all four favored teams — Texas, Maryland, Oklahoma and Syracuse — win their games today, Northeastern senior Ryan McBride will move into second place, 13 points behind Vale. There would then be a cluster of contestants between 20 and 23 points back: Caplin, Port, Peters, and first-year Maryland Ph.D. student Josh Rubin. (Rubin, however, is already mathematically eliminated from winning the pool; more on that shortly.)

The three lowest seeds fighting to stay alive today — #7 Michigan State, #10 Auburn, and #12 Butler — were picked by just one pool contestants each, and all of those contestants are far behind the leaders and mathematically eliminated from winning the pool. Brendan Loy, in 29th place, picked Butler; Ginny Zak, in 38th place, picked Michigan State; and Toby (the cat), in 42nd place, picked Auburn (the Tigers). If each case, if one of those teams wins, the contestant who picked that team will soar in the pool standings, but not enough to impact the battle for first place.

Loy, Zak, and Toby were all eliminated already at the end of the second round, as were six others. But 16 more contestats were added to the rolls of the mathematically eliminated yesterday. Among them was defending champion Tom Greca, who lost any chance of winning this year’s pool when Marquette beat Pittsburgh yesterday. Also eliminated yesterday: Rubin, Ben Benack, Karen Cultrera, women’s pool leader Matt Thomsen, James Dixon, Beth Milewski, Kristy McCray, Richard Simon, Rick Boeckler, Kim Stone, Bonnie Stone, Victoria Wagner, Dave Cordero, Rosalie Town, and Jennifer Persaud. In several cases, they could finish as high as second or third in the standings depending on various games’ outcomes, but they cannot win the pool.

Combined with earlier mathematical eliminations, that leaves just 18 contestants with a chance to win the pool: Vale, Caplin, Port, McBride, Matt Kagan, Kristen Everson, Todd Stigliano, Peters, Kevin Hauschulz, Paul Zak, Cam McLachlan, Jeff Cultrera, Mike Wiser, Ted Zak, Sara Hamilton, Danny Pilz, Shannon McHugh, and Brian Newbold. Of those, Kagan and Cultrera can only hope for a first-place tie, not an outright win.

More will be eliminated today. Some scenarios are too complex for the computer to immediately compute, but some are already known: if Michigan State wins, Port, presently in third place, will be eliminated; if Texas wins, both of the players now tied for fifth, Everson and Kagan, are gone. Kagan also needs victories by Michigan State, Butler, and Auburn; if any of the favorites today win, he is eliminated.

Todd Stigliano, the 2001 women’s pool winner, will be eliminated from this year’s men’s pool if either UConn or Auburn win today. Kevin Hauschulz, tied with the already-eliminated Rubin for the dubious distinction of most Living Room Times pools entered without ever winning, would be knocked out by a win by Butler. Others are in even more precarious positions. For details on best-possible finishes and “must-win” games, click here.

Here is a look at today’s schedule, and the picks made by the top 10 pool contestants:

4:10 PM Pacific time: #1 Oklahoma vs. #12 Butler
4:27 PM Pacific time: #1 Texas vs. #5 UConn
6:40 PM Pacific time: #3 Syracuse vs. #10 Auburn
6:57 PM Pacific time: #6 Maryland vs. #7 Michigan State

Justin Vale (257): Texas, Xavier*, Oklahoma, Syracuse
Larry Caplin (247): Texas, Florida*, Mississippi St.**, Syracuse
Dan Port (244): Texas, Maryland, Louisville**, Wake Forest***
Ryan McBride (244): Texas, Florida*, Oklahoma, Syracuse
Kristen Everson (242): UConn, Xavier*, Louisville**, Wake Forest***
Matt Kagan (242): UConn, Florida*, Louisville**, Wake Forest***
Todd Stigliano (235): Texas, Xavier*, Louisville**, Syracuse
Josh Rubin (235): Texas, Maryland, Oklahoma, Wake Forest***
James Peters (234): UConn, Maryland, Oklahoma, Syracuse
Kevin Hauschulz (232): UConn, Florida*, Oklahoma, Syracuse

*#3 Xavier and #2 Florida were eliminated in the second round. In order to avoid losing ground in comparison to their competitors, contestants who picked these teams now need to root for Michigan State, who almost no one picked, over Maryland.
**Butler eliminated #5 Mississippi State and #4 Louisville in the first and second rounds, respectively. In order to avoid losing ground in comparison to their competitors, contestants who picked these teams now need to root for Butler, who almost no one picked, over Oklahoma.
***Auburn eliminated #2 Wake Forest in the second round. In order to avoid losing ground in comparison to their competitors, contestants who picked Wake Forest now need to root for Auburn, who almost no one picked, over Syracuse.

NEWINGTON POOL MONOPOLY NOT BROKEN — YET

Will this be the year that Newington High School finally loses its grip on The Living Room Times’s NCAA pools?

Although pool administrator Brendan Loy graduated from Newington High four years ago, and has been inviting USC students and other non-Newington folks to join his pools ever since 2000, no one without a connection to Newington has ever won a Times pool. In fact, the Newington High School Class of 1999, Loy’s graduating class, has an 11-pool winning streak (men’s and women’s) dating back to the very first contest, the 1996 men’s pool, which was won by Newington High teacher Lou Ruggiero. To this day, Ruggiero remains the only pool winner who was not a member of the Class of ‘99.

USC student Mike Wiser, now a senior, came the closest to breaking the streak. In the 2001 women’s pool, Wiser was literally 20 minutes of basketball away from winning the pool. A victory in the national championship game by Purdue would have given Wiser the victory — and the Boilermakers led at halftime. But NHS grad Todd Stigliano’s pick, Notre Dame, came storming back in the second half. The Irish won the game, and Stigliano won the pool.

So, what about this year’s pools?

Through 52 games in the men’s pool, of the 18 players still mathematically alive to win, nine — exactly half — have a Newington connection. (Of those, seven are members of the NHS Class of 1999.) Three are USC students, while six have no direct connection to either USC or Newington. Some of these are family or family friends of Loy’s girlfriend Becky Zak, while others are people who, like leader Justin Vale, found the pool by chance on the Internet.

On the women’s side, just 13 players are still alive through 48 games. Of these, six have Newington connections, including five Class of ‘99 grads. Only one USC student, Nick Sowers, is still alive. Again, there are six “others” — folks without a direct connection to USC or Newington. (One of these six is Toby Zak, Becky Zak’s cat, who lives at Becky’s apartment near USC’s campus and could arguably be classified as having a USC connection.)

Here is the rundown:

Men’s through 52 games

NEWINGTON (9)
Jeff Cultrera (Class of ‘99), Kristen Everson (’00), Sara Hamilton (’99), Kevin Hauschulz (’99), Matt Kagan (’99), Ryan McBride (’99), Brian Newbold (’99), Danny Pilz (’07), Todd Stigliano (’99)

USC (3)
Shannon McHugh, Dan Port, Mike Wiser

OTHER (6)
Larry Caplin, Cam McLachlan, James Peters, Justin Vale, Paul Zak, Ted Zak

Women’s through 48 games

NEWINGTON (6)
Sara Hamilton (Class of ‘99), Ryan McBride (’99), Brian Newbold (’99), Josh Rubin (’99), Kim Stone (’05) Matt Thomsen (’99)

USC (1)
Nick Sowers

OTHER (6)
Rick Boeckler, Larry Caplin, Pat Caplin, James Peters, Richard Simon, Toby Zak

U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld warns Syria that the U.S. considers military shipments to Iraq a ‘hostile act.’

MARQUETTE GIVES VALE THE LEAD

#3-seed Marquette’s 77-74 victory over #2 Pittsburgh gave 15-year-old Rockville High School freshman Justin Vale sole possession of the lead in The Living Room Times’s eighth annual NCAA men’s pool through 52 games.

Vale, of Vernon, Connecticut, went 4-for-4 Thursday, successfully picking the Golden Eagles and the day’s other three winners, all of whom were the higher-seeded teams: #1 Kentucky over #5 Wisconsin, #1 Arizona over #5 Notre Dame, and #2 Kansas over #3 Duke. Vale now has 257 points out of a possible 312.

Michigan resident Larry Caplin, formerly tied with Vale for first, dropped to second place when the buzzer sounded on Marquette’s win. Caplin, a 59-year-old uncle of Becky Zak, had picked Pittsburgh to win. He got the day’s other three games right, however, and is now ten points back with 247 points.

Dan Port, a USC junior, and Ryan McBride, a Northeastern University senior, are tied for third place with 244 points. UConn junior Kristen Everson and Southern New Hampshire University senior Matt Kagan are tied for fifth with 242.

Wisconsin is threatening to shake up the Living Room Times eighth annual men’s NCAA pool leaderboard in a big way.

The #1-seed Kentucky Wildcats are leading the #5 Badgers by just one point, 38-37, with 15:54 left in the game. If Wisconsin pulls the upset, defending champion Tom Greca, presently in 13th place, and Bonnie Stone, presently 19th, will soar in the standings; they were the only contestants to predict the Badgers would reach the Elite Eight.

Meanwhile, the 17 contestants who picked Kentucky to win the national championship and 12 others who predicted they will reach the Final Four would find their chances of winning the pool severely hurt if the Wildcats make an early exit.

UPDATE: Well, so much for the Badgers. Kentucky wins. Sanity prevails.

Pentagon: 12 Marines missing, 14 wounded in fighting around Nasiriya.

American Connection Flight 5554
Departing: St. Louis, MO
Arriving: South Bend, IN
Arrival Time: 7:09 PM Gate: N/A
Baggage Claim: N/A

This flight departed: 4:36 PM

Richard Perle, head of board that advises U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, resigns.