JUSTIN VALE CLINCHES MEN’S POOL VICTORY
YOUNGEST WINNER ENDS NEWINGTON’S WINNING STREAK,
THANKS TO MARQUETTE “MISTAKE” AND WIN BY KANSAS
Rockville High freshman has 317 points so far, may break all-time record

Kansas is headed for New Orleans, and Justin Vale is headed for the Living Room Times history books.

#2-seed Kansas’s victory over #1-seed Arizona put the Jayhawks in the Final Four and wrapped up an historic championship for Vale in the Times’s eighth annual NCAA men’s pool. Vale, a 14-year-old freshman at Rockville High School in Vernon, Connecticut, had already tied the record for best-predicted first round ever; now he is the youngest pool winner ever, the first non-Newington winner ever, and tied for the earliest clinch ever in a men’s pool. He also may well end up with the most points ever.

Vale’s victory also ended two long winning streaks for the town of Newington, Connecticut. Every pool since 1997, men’s and women’s, had been won by a member of the Newington High School Class of 1999 — until this one. And every pool throughout Times history had been won by someone directly associated with Newington High — again, until this one.

Vale does have a connection to Newington High, but it is indirect: his grandfather coaches the NHS golf team. Vale himself lives in Vernon, and Newington connections are not responsible for his entering the pool; he found it “randomly” over the Internet. Vale is the first Times pool winner who does not personally know pool administrator Brendan Loy, and who was not specifically invited by Loy to enter the pool.

Vale may also be the first contestant ever to win a Times pool because of an error in his bracket. Vale meant to pick Kentucky over Marquette, but inadvertantly clicked the wrong team when filling out his bracket, choosing the Golden Eagles “by accident.” Discovering his error later, he referred to his choice of Marquette as a “bad” pick. But the Eagles stunned the Wildcats earlier today, boosting Vale and setting the stage for Kansas, his national champion pick, to seal the deal for him by beating Arizona.

Kansas’s win eliminated the last of Vale’s opposition: Northeastern University senior Ryan McBride, USC senior Mike Wiser, and Becky Zak’s father Ted Zak. This is the first time since 1997 that a men’s pool winner has been decided before the start of the Final Four.

The previous youngest winner in Times history was pool administrator Brendan Loy, who was 15 when he won the women’s pool in 1996. The records for early clinching and for the most points in a men’s pool are both held by Lou Ruggiero, who clinched victory in 1996 on the first day of the Elite Eight en route to scoring 354 points in the pool. The most points scored in any pool, men’s or women’s, is 409, a mark set by Jenn Castelhano in the women’s pool last year.

Vale currently has 317 points, and could finish with as many as 412 if all of his remaining picks come true. Two or three correct picks, depending on which round they occur in, would be enough to surpass men’s-pool record.

All of Vale’s remaining picks are still possible — Texas and Oklahoma to reach the Final Four tomorrow, Kansas and Texas to reach the title game, and Kansas to win it all. Tomorrow’s two Elite Eight games are worth 15 points each; each Final Four game is worth 20 points, and the title game is worth 25 points. The pool is scored on a 5-7-10-15-20-25 basis.

Vale has held at least a share of the lead since last Friday, March 21, when Butler stunned Mississippi State in the first round. He and then-co-leader Larry Caplin went 28-4 in the first round, tying Ruggiero’s 1996 record for the best-predicted first round in Times men’s pool history.

The Living Room Times’s eighth annual men’s NCAA pool hangs in the balance as Arizona and Kansas go down to the wire.

If Kansas wins, the battle for first place will be over, with Justin Vale clinching victory. The only remaining questions would be Vale’s winning point total, his margin of victory, and the makeup of the rest of the leaderboard.

On the other hand, if Arizona wins, the battle for first place will continue at least until tomorrow, and probably into next weekend. If Arizona wins, the only way anyone could clinch victory tomorrow would be if both underdogs, #7-seed Michigan State and #3-seed Syracuse, knock off the #1 seeds, Texas and Oklahoma. In that case, Ryan McBride would clinch victory. But otherwise, the men’s pool champion would, for the sixth consecutive year, not be decided until at least the national semifinals.

The game is tied, 66-66, with 6:36 to go.

“ACCIDENTAL” PICK BOOSTS VALE; KANSAS WIN WOULD CLINCH VICTORY
One game into Elite Eight, men’s pool is down to a Final Four

Justin Vale didn’t mean to pick Marquette over Kentucky. On the Pick65 bulletin board yesterday, he wrote, “I picked some bad teams, like Marquette beating Kentucky by accident.”

It was a fortuitous accident.

Marquette’s #3-seeded Golden Eagles crushed Kentucky’s #1-seeded, top-ranked Wildcats in a stunning display of dominance Saturday, 83-69, to advance to the Final Four. Now, Vale — who has held at least a share of the lead since the end of the first round — has his biggest margin yet, 28 points over his nearest competitor, and he could be one Kansas victory away from clinching victory in the pool.

“I can’t believe Marquette is beating Kentucky,” Vale wrote in an e-mail Saturday while the game was still in progress. “Maybe it was some kind of fate.”

Vale, a 14-year-old freshman at Rockville High School in Vernon, Connecticut, is the only pool contestant who predicted Marquette’s trip to the Final Four, accidentally or not. 29 of the 43 contestants picked Kentucky.

Only three other contestants have any chance of defeating Vale. Seven teams are still alive in the tournament, but the pool is already down to a Final Four: Vale, Northeastern University senior Ryan McBride, USC senior Mike Wiser, and Becky Zak’s father, Ted Zak.

Vale has a 70.3 percent chance of winning, according to a computer analysis of the 64 remaining scenarios. McBride, 28 points behind Vale in second place, has a 20.3 percent chance of winning. Wiser, 50 points back in a tie for seventh place, has a 6.2 percent chance. Zak, tied with Wiser, has a 3.1 percent chance.

Everyone else is mathematically eliminated. Specifically, Marquette’s win knocked Sara Hamilton, Cam McLachlan, James Peters, Kevin Hauschulz, Todd Stigliano, and Larry Caplin out of contention.

If Kansas defeats Arizona in today’s second game, Vale will be guaranteed victory, clinching the pool on the first day of the Elite Eight with five tournament games remaining. It would be the earliest clinch in a men’s pool since 1996, the first annual pool, when Lou Ruggiero clinched victory on the first day of the Elite Eight when Marcus Camby’s UMass team defeated Allen Iverson’s Georgetown squad, 86-62.

VALE LEADS MCBRIDE BY 13 POINTS IN MEN’S POOL;
HE COULD CLINCH VICTORY TODAY, OR BE ELIMINATED

Here’s how volatile the leaderboard in The Living Room Times’s eighth annual men’s NCAA pool is: if Marquette beats Kentucky and Kansas beats Arizona today, Justin Vale will clinch victory in pool. If, on the other hand, Kentucky and Arizona win, Vale will be mathematically eliminated from any chance of winning the pool.

There are ten players still alive at the moment to win the Times pool, but any of them could be knocked out of contention today. At most, seven could still be standing at the end of the day — that would be if Kentucky and Arizona win.

Here are the players who would still be alive to win, and their mathematical likelihood of victory, in each of today’s four scenarios:

If Kentucky and Arizona win: Ryan McBride (40.6%), Mike Wiser (18.8%), Sara Hamilton (15.6%), Ted Zak (9.4%), Cam McLachlan (9.4%), James Peters (6.2%), Kevin Hauschulz (3.1%)

If Kentucky and Kansas win: Justin Vale (56.2%), Todd Stigliano (18.8%), Larry Caplin (12.5%), Kevin Hauschulz (12.5%), James Peters (6.2%), Mike Wiser (6.2%)

If Marquette and Arizona win: Justin Vale (40.6%), Ryan McBride (40.6%), Mike Wiser (12.5%), Ted Zak (6.2%)

If Marquette and Kansas win: Justin Vale (100%)

Presently, out of a possible 352 points thus far, Vale, a freshman at Rockville High School, leads with 287. Ryan McBride, a senior at Northeastern University, is second with 274 points, 13 behind the leader. (Today’s games are worth 15 points each. The pool is scored by round on a 5-7-10-15-20-25 basis.) Larry Caplin, a 59-year-old Michigan resident and uncle of Becky Zak, is third, 20 points behind Vale with 267 points.

In fourth place, there is a tie between Providence senior Todd Stigliano and first-year Maryland Ph.D. student Josh Rubin with 255 points, 32 back of the leader. But Rubin is already mathematically eliminated from winning; Stigliano could still win. USC senior Dan Port, also mathematically eliminated, is tied with James Peters, who could still win, in sixth place with 254 points.

UConn senior Kevin Hauschulz, who shared with Rubin the record for most Living Room Times pools entered without a victory, is tied for eighth place with USC senior Mike Wiser and Becky Zak’s father, Ted Zak. Each has 252 points. All three still have a chance to win; Wiser is the last USC student still alive to win the men’s pool.

Sara Hamilton, in 11th place with 248 points, and Cam McLachlan, in 13th with 244, round out the list of possible winners. For complete “best-result scenarios,” click here.

Two U.S. special forces soldiers killed and one wounded in ambush in Afghanistan, Pentagon sources say.

Five U.S. soldiers killed by suicide bomber near Najaf, Iraq, about 95 miles south of Baghdad, U.S. military says.

Well, Michigan State dethroned the defending champs, and that means there are only a Terrific Ten contestants heading into the Elite Eight with a chance to win the Times men’s pool. The Spartans’ win eliminated USC junior Dan Port, leaving senior Mike Wiser as the only USC student with a chance to win the pool.

The Terrific Ten is: Ryan McBride, Todd Stigliano, Kevin Hauschulz, Sara Hamilton, Mike Wiser, Justin Vale, Larry Caplin, James Peters, Cam McLachlan, and Ted Zak.

I’m going to a party now, but I will post a full pool update later tonight… or maybe tomorrow… with full standings, scenarios, and information on the pool implications of tomorrow’s games.

This has nothing to do with basketball, but I forgot to mention it yesterday, so I figured I’d post it now. When I was in the Daily Trojan office yesterday afternoon around 4:30 PM, some sort of large military helicopter flew by, not very far away. It was heading north toward downtown, but disappeared behind USC’s education building, so I don’t know where it went or what it did. I did, however, get a photo of it:

I wonder what it was up to? It looked like one of those big transport helicopters… but why would it be flying around over downtown L.A.? Is the U.S. military invading Dodger Stadium or something?

Syracuse wins, barely! Danny Pilz and Paul Zak are eliminated. There are now 11 contestants still alive to win the pool — four members of the Newington High School Class of 1999, three friends or family members of Becky Zak, two USC students, and two Internet surfers without any personal connection to pool administrator Brendan Loy.

Still alive: Ryan McBride, Todd Stigliano, Kevin Hauschulz, Sara Hamilton, Dan Port, Mike Wiser, Justin Vale, Larry Caplin, James Peters, Cam McLachlan, and Ted Zak.

If Michigan State beats Maryland, Dan Port is eliminated. If Maryland beats Michigan State, no one else is eliminated tonight. But at the moment, Michigan State leads, 47-34, with 11:31 to go.

If Maryland and Syracuse win, Danny Pilz and Paul Zak are mathematically eliminated.

If Maryland and Auburn win, Sara Hamilton, James Peters and Todd Stigliano are mathematically eliminated.

If Michigan State and Syracuse win, Danny Pilz, Dan Port, and Paul Zak are mathematically eliminated.

If Michigan State and Auburn win, Sara Hamilton, James Peters, Danny Pilz, Dan Port, and Todd Stigliano are mathematically eliminated.

Texas pulls out a thriller, 82-78, to become the fourth #1 seed in the Elite Eight. That eliminates three more contestants: UConn junior Kristen Everson, Villianova senior Brian Newbold, and USC senior Shannon McHugh.

Oklahoma 65, Butler 54, final. That means Matt Kagan and Jeff Cultrera are mathematically eliminated. It is also means Northeastern University senior Ryan McBride is now in second place, 13 points behind Rockville High School freshman Justin Vale.

Too bad about Butler, which is 15 seconds away from losing. But hey, they had a great run. Years from now, I’ll be bragging that I correctly predicted they’d reach the Sweet Sixteen. Just like I still brag about Valparaiso, Gonzaga, etc.

Not looking great for UConn, either. But they still have time. C’mon, Huskies!

This new Allstate commercial — featuring Christian Laettner & Mike Krzyzewski, Patrick Ewing & John Thompson, and N.C. State & Jim Valvano, set to the tune of No Man is an Island — gives me goose bumps every time I see it.

Like the title says, I’m such a dork.

I response to my post about anti-war professors and to Becky’s excellent column on the same topic, a bit of praise from an unlikely source: my mom. Although thoroughly anti-war herself, she comments:

Good point, Becky! I attended a forum at ECSU where I work and all three (faculty) speakers and virtually all those who rose to speak from the audience were anti-war. A single young woman spoke up urging support of the troops — her fiance is stationed in the Middle East. Almost the last speaker finally addressed the one-sidedness: From the floor mike, he said “I didn’t know I was coming to a peace rally” and then he defended the Bush administration in their actions. I thanked him afterwards. It needed to be said.

Then there’s Andrew, my archconservative friend and thus a much less surprising source of praise, who writes:

Who’d of thunk it? A year after Andrew is graduated and gone, the anti-left voice of reason has been filled by–gasp!–Becky and Brendan! Keep movin’ rightward, yeehaw!

Hehe.