TWO MORE ARE ELIMINATED FROM WOMEN’S POOL,
BUT WINNER WILL NOT BE DECIDED UNTIL FINAL FOUR

Two more teams, Villianova and Texas Tech, were eliminated from the women’s NCAA Tournament tonight, and so were two more players, Pat Caplin and Brian Newbold, in The Living Room Times’s sixth annual NCAA women’s pool.

Newbold is a senior at Villanova, and had picked his Wildcats to win the national championship. Caplin had picked them to reach the title game. Both are now mathematically eliminated from any chance of winning the pool.

Thus, in a tournament whose regional semifinals and finals have thus far held perfectly to the seedings — with four #1 seeds and four #2 seeds reaching the Elite Eight, and now the first two #1 seeds reaching the Final Four — there are just five contestants left alive: three members of pool administrator Brendan Loy’s high-school graduating class, and two of Loy’s girlfriend’s uncles.

Josh Rubin, a graduate student at the University of Maryland who owns the dubious distinction of having participated in the most Times pools without a victory (an honor he shares with high-school classmate Kevin Hauschulz), continues to lead the pool, now with 330 points out of a possible 382. Of the remaining 32 tournament scenarios, Rubin would win in ten — 31 percent.

In second place is Becky Zak’s uncle Rick Boeckler, a resident of Silver Spring, Maryland, who has 326 points and a 25 percent chance of winning — 8 out of 32 scenarios roll his way. Holding onto third place is Matt Thomsen, the University of New Haven senior who went a perfect 32-for-32 in the first round and led throughout the entire tournament until Texas’s win over Minnesota dropped him into third yesterday. Thomsen would win in 6 out of 32 scenarios, or 19 percent.

Potential winners in four of the 32 scenarios, or 12.5 percent, are Sara Hamilton, a Union College senior, and Larry Caplin, another uncle of Becky Zak. Caplin is in sixth place with 310 points; Hamilton is tied for twelfth with 290.

At least two of the five remaining contesants will be eliminated by tomorrow’s games. But at least two will survive until next weekend, meaning the women’s pool, unlike this year’s men’s pool, will not be decided until at least the Final Four.

If #1 UConn defeats #2 Purdue today, Hamilton will be mathematically eliminated. No one will be eliminated by a Purdue win. But the game between #1 LSU and #2 Texas is guaranteed to eliminate at least two contestants: Boeckler and Thomsen if LSU wins, Rubin and Caplin if Texas wins.

To sum up tomorrow’s pool implications:

If UConn and LSU win: Boeckler, Thomsen, and Hamilton eliminated. Rubin now has a 75% chance of winning; Caplin 25%.
If UConn and Texas win: Rubin, Caplin, and Hamilton eliminated. Boeckler and Thomsen each have a 50% chance of winning.
If Purdue and LSU win: Boeckler and Thomsen eliminated. Rubin has a 50% chance of winning; Caplin 25%, Hamilton 25%.
If Purdue and Texas win: Rubin and Caplin eliminated. Boeckler has a 50% chance of winning; Thomsen 25%, Hamilton 25%.

If, tomorrow, George W. Bush had a sudden change of heart about his priorities in the Middle East, decided that he needed above all else to liberate the Palestinian people, concluded that Israel’s Likud government was responsible for countless atrocities against the Palestinians, and therefore issued an ultimatum to Ariel Sharon — dismantle the settlements, disarm your country, and discontinue your anti-Palestinian policies within 48 hours, or face military action — if, hypothetically, this highly unlikely scenario occurred, how would the average “antiwar” protester react?

It’s impossible to prove, of course, but I suspect a fair number would be entirely thrilled. These are the same people, after all, who routinely carry signs that say “Free Palestine” at the same time that they oppose U.S. action to free Iraq. Which raises an interesting question: is it okay for Muslims to oppress other Muslims, but not okay for Jews to oppress Muslims? And if so, why?

The military has kicked Geraldo Rivera out of Iraq. The stated reason is that he gave away operational details. I think the other reason is that he’s Geraldo Rivera.

UPDATE: Or not. The fog of war seems to be setting in here. Geraldo denies he’s leaving; a U.S. Central Command official says, “He is being pulled. He just doesn’t know it yet. He has not gotten the word.”

At least Geraldo is being gracious about the whole episode. Referring to the network that first reported his alleged expulsion, he said, “It sounds like some rats from my former network, NBC, are trying to stab me in the back. … MSNBC is so pathetic a cable news network that they have to do anything they can to attract attention. You can rest assured that whatever they’re saying is a pack of lies.”

Hehe.

U.S. soldiers fire into van carrying 13 women and children after it fails to stop at checkpoint, Central Command says. Seven found dead, two wounded.