JUSTIN VALE CLINCHES MEN’S POOL VICTORY
YOUNGEST WINNER ENDS NEWINGTON’S WINNING STREAK,
THANKS TO MARQUETTE “MISTAKE” AND WIN BY KANSAS
Rockville High freshman has 317 points so far, may break all-time record

Kansas is headed for New Orleans, and Justin Vale is headed for the Living Room Times history books.

#2-seed Kansas’s victory over #1-seed Arizona put the Jayhawks in the Final Four and wrapped up an historic championship for Vale in the Times’s eighth annual NCAA men’s pool. Vale, a 14-year-old freshman at Rockville High School in Vernon, Connecticut, had already tied the record for best-predicted first round ever; now he is the youngest pool winner ever, the first non-Newington winner ever, and tied for the earliest clinch ever in a men’s pool. He also may well end up with the most points ever.

Vale’s victory also ended two long winning streaks for the town of Newington, Connecticut. Every pool since 1997, men’s and women’s, had been won by a member of the Newington High School Class of 1999 — until this one. And every pool throughout Times history had been won by someone directly associated with Newington High — again, until this one.

Vale does have a connection to Newington High, but it is indirect: his grandfather coaches the NHS golf team. Vale himself lives in Vernon, and Newington connections are not responsible for his entering the pool; he found it “randomly” over the Internet. Vale is the first Times pool winner who does not personally know pool administrator Brendan Loy, and who was not specifically invited by Loy to enter the pool.

Vale may also be the first contestant ever to win a Times pool because of an error in his bracket. Vale meant to pick Kentucky over Marquette, but inadvertantly clicked the wrong team when filling out his bracket, choosing the Golden Eagles “by accident.” Discovering his error later, he referred to his choice of Marquette as a “bad” pick. But the Eagles stunned the Wildcats earlier today, boosting Vale and setting the stage for Kansas, his national champion pick, to seal the deal for him by beating Arizona.

Kansas’s win eliminated the last of Vale’s opposition: Northeastern University senior Ryan McBride, USC senior Mike Wiser, and Becky Zak’s father Ted Zak. This is the first time since 1997 that a men’s pool winner has been decided before the start of the Final Four.

The previous youngest winner in Times history was pool administrator Brendan Loy, who was 15 when he won the women’s pool in 1996. The records for early clinching and for the most points in a men’s pool are both held by Lou Ruggiero, who clinched victory in 1996 on the first day of the Elite Eight en route to scoring 354 points in the pool. The most points scored in any pool, men’s or women’s, is 409, a mark set by Jenn Castelhano in the women’s pool last year.

Vale currently has 317 points, and could finish with as many as 412 if all of his remaining picks come true. Two or three correct picks, depending on which round they occur in, would be enough to surpass men’s-pool record.

All of Vale’s remaining picks are still possible — Texas and Oklahoma to reach the Final Four tomorrow, Kansas and Texas to reach the title game, and Kansas to win it all. Tomorrow’s two Elite Eight games are worth 15 points each; each Final Four game is worth 20 points, and the title game is worth 25 points. The pool is scored on a 5-7-10-15-20-25 basis.

Vale has held at least a share of the lead since last Friday, March 21, when Butler stunned Mississippi State in the first round. He and then-co-leader Larry Caplin went 28-4 in the first round, tying Ruggiero’s 1996 record for the best-predicted first round in Times men’s pool history.

The Living Room Times’s eighth annual men’s NCAA pool hangs in the balance as Arizona and Kansas go down to the wire.

If Kansas wins, the battle for first place will be over, with Justin Vale clinching victory. The only remaining questions would be Vale’s winning point total, his margin of victory, and the makeup of the rest of the leaderboard.

On the other hand, if Arizona wins, the battle for first place will continue at least until tomorrow, and probably into next weekend. If Arizona wins, the only way anyone could clinch victory tomorrow would be if both underdogs, #7-seed Michigan State and #3-seed Syracuse, knock off the #1 seeds, Texas and Oklahoma. In that case, Ryan McBride would clinch victory. But otherwise, the men’s pool champion would, for the sixth consecutive year, not be decided until at least the national semifinals.

The game is tied, 66-66, with 6:36 to go.

“ACCIDENTAL” PICK BOOSTS VALE; KANSAS WIN WOULD CLINCH VICTORY
One game into Elite Eight, men’s pool is down to a Final Four

Justin Vale didn’t mean to pick Marquette over Kentucky. On the Pick65 bulletin board yesterday, he wrote, “I picked some bad teams, like Marquette beating Kentucky by accident.”

It was a fortuitous accident.

Marquette’s #3-seeded Golden Eagles crushed Kentucky’s #1-seeded, top-ranked Wildcats in a stunning display of dominance Saturday, 83-69, to advance to the Final Four. Now, Vale — who has held at least a share of the lead since the end of the first round — has his biggest margin yet, 28 points over his nearest competitor, and he could be one Kansas victory away from clinching victory in the pool.

“I can’t believe Marquette is beating Kentucky,” Vale wrote in an e-mail Saturday while the game was still in progress. “Maybe it was some kind of fate.”

Vale, a 14-year-old freshman at Rockville High School in Vernon, Connecticut, is the only pool contestant who predicted Marquette’s trip to the Final Four, accidentally or not. 29 of the 43 contestants picked Kentucky.

Only three other contestants have any chance of defeating Vale. Seven teams are still alive in the tournament, but the pool is already down to a Final Four: Vale, Northeastern University senior Ryan McBride, USC senior Mike Wiser, and Becky Zak’s father, Ted Zak.

Vale has a 70.3 percent chance of winning, according to a computer analysis of the 64 remaining scenarios. McBride, 28 points behind Vale in second place, has a 20.3 percent chance of winning. Wiser, 50 points back in a tie for seventh place, has a 6.2 percent chance. Zak, tied with Wiser, has a 3.1 percent chance.

Everyone else is mathematically eliminated. Specifically, Marquette’s win knocked Sara Hamilton, Cam McLachlan, James Peters, Kevin Hauschulz, Todd Stigliano, and Larry Caplin out of contention.

If Kansas defeats Arizona in today’s second game, Vale will be guaranteed victory, clinching the pool on the first day of the Elite Eight with five tournament games remaining. It would be the earliest clinch in a men’s pool since 1996, the first annual pool, when Lou Ruggiero clinched victory on the first day of the Elite Eight when Marcus Camby’s UMass team defeated Allen Iverson’s Georgetown squad, 86-62.

VALE LEADS MCBRIDE BY 13 POINTS IN MEN’S POOL;
HE COULD CLINCH VICTORY TODAY, OR BE ELIMINATED

Here’s how volatile the leaderboard in The Living Room Times’s eighth annual men’s NCAA pool is: if Marquette beats Kentucky and Kansas beats Arizona today, Justin Vale will clinch victory in pool. If, on the other hand, Kentucky and Arizona win, Vale will be mathematically eliminated from any chance of winning the pool.

There are ten players still alive at the moment to win the Times pool, but any of them could be knocked out of contention today. At most, seven could still be standing at the end of the day — that would be if Kentucky and Arizona win.

Here are the players who would still be alive to win, and their mathematical likelihood of victory, in each of today’s four scenarios:

If Kentucky and Arizona win: Ryan McBride (40.6%), Mike Wiser (18.8%), Sara Hamilton (15.6%), Ted Zak (9.4%), Cam McLachlan (9.4%), James Peters (6.2%), Kevin Hauschulz (3.1%)

If Kentucky and Kansas win: Justin Vale (56.2%), Todd Stigliano (18.8%), Larry Caplin (12.5%), Kevin Hauschulz (12.5%), James Peters (6.2%), Mike Wiser (6.2%)

If Marquette and Arizona win: Justin Vale (40.6%), Ryan McBride (40.6%), Mike Wiser (12.5%), Ted Zak (6.2%)

If Marquette and Kansas win: Justin Vale (100%)

Presently, out of a possible 352 points thus far, Vale, a freshman at Rockville High School, leads with 287. Ryan McBride, a senior at Northeastern University, is second with 274 points, 13 behind the leader. (Today’s games are worth 15 points each. The pool is scored by round on a 5-7-10-15-20-25 basis.) Larry Caplin, a 59-year-old Michigan resident and uncle of Becky Zak, is third, 20 points behind Vale with 267 points.

In fourth place, there is a tie between Providence senior Todd Stigliano and first-year Maryland Ph.D. student Josh Rubin with 255 points, 32 back of the leader. But Rubin is already mathematically eliminated from winning; Stigliano could still win. USC senior Dan Port, also mathematically eliminated, is tied with James Peters, who could still win, in sixth place with 254 points.

UConn senior Kevin Hauschulz, who shared with Rubin the record for most Living Room Times pools entered without a victory, is tied for eighth place with USC senior Mike Wiser and Becky Zak’s father, Ted Zak. Each has 252 points. All three still have a chance to win; Wiser is the last USC student still alive to win the men’s pool.

Sara Hamilton, in 11th place with 248 points, and Cam McLachlan, in 13th with 244, round out the list of possible winners. For complete “best-result scenarios,” click here.

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