I don’t know what on earth Washington State was thinking with that onside kick… but at any rate, the Bruins are still in the game, even though they really shouldn’t be. It’s 31-21 Cougars.

Yay! UCLA takes the lead! Bruins 14, Cougars 7. And they almost just intercepted it for another touchdown… And now Matt Kegel is coming in to replace Jason Gesser, at least for now.

I’m going to stop posting updates constantly now. I have work to do, and I’m starving. :) But I’ll post again as developments warrant… just not every touchdown.

You learn something new every day. Just now, I learned that I am, in fact, genuinely capable of cheering for UCLA. When the Bruins got their big interception moments ago, I spontaneously threw my arms in the air and, before I even knew what I was doing, proclaimed, “Yes!” Bruins 7, Cougars 7.

The final score: Miami 56, Virginia Tech 45. So here’s how the rest of the day’s games shake out for Trojan fans:

UCLA vs. Washington State: If UCLA wins, we win the Pac-10 title outright and go to the Rose Bowl. If Washington State wins, we are Pac-10 co-champions and probably go to the Sugar Bowl. (The Orange Bowl would also be a possibility, but highly unlikely.)
Georgia vs. Arkansas: This game no longer matters to our bowl qualification hopes, but its winner will probably be our bowl opponent (in the Sugar Bowl) if Washington State beats UCLA. I’d argue we should therefore root for Georgia, since a USC-Georgia game would be more exciting than USC-Arkansas — and more impressive to the end-of-season poll voters if we win. On the other hand, you could argue that if UCLA beats the Cougars, we should root for Arkansas in this game, because that would move us to #4 in the rankings right away and perhaps give us a chance to move up to #2 at the end of the postseason if we beat Iowa in the Rose Bowl.
Colorado vs. Oklahoma: This game really no longer matters to us at all. I mean, I guess you could root for Oklahoma on the basis that there’s a slim chance we could end up playing the winner of this game, and who wants a rematch with Colorado? But I really can’t forsee the scenario where the BCS people would create that matchup. We’re heading to either the Sugar or the Rose. So root for whoever you want.

Washington State (with Jason Gesser starting at QB) just scored on a trick play! They went ahead of UCLA almost as quickly as USC did two weeks ago — 7-0 Cougars, 37 seconds into the game!

Looks like it’s all over. Virginia Tech made a valiant effort to stay with Miami, but the Hurricanes lead by 19 points and have the ball with seven minutes left. So, the Fiesta Bowl will feature two undefeated teams — Miami and Ohio State — and USC’s national-title hopes are gone. But on the bright side, the Trojans are definitely headed for a BCS bowl. Miami’s win means Iowa can’t pass USC for the #4 spot, so we’re guaranteed a spot once and for all. We’ll probably go to either the Sugar or the Rose, depending on whether Washington State or UCLA wins the next game.

If UCLA wins, the Rose Bowl will be USC-Iowa, the Orange Bowl will be Florida State-Notre Dame or Florida State-Kansas State, and the Sugar Bowl will pit the winners of tonight’s Big 12 and SEC championship games. If Washington State wins, it’ll be a bit messier and harder to predict, but it’ll probably be USC vs. the SEC champion in the Sugar Bowl, and Notre Dame and Kansas State will both be out of luck (probably).

Virginia Tech is hanging in there, barely. Now what we need is a sudden Miami collapse in the second half — enough to give the Hokies the victory and de-impress the poll voters. (Is “de-impress” a word?) And a few Ken Dorsey interceptions and Willis McGahee fumbles wouldn’t hurt Carson Palmer’s Heisman hopes…

First off, a women’s volleyball update: USC’s #1-ranked Women of Troy swept San Diego in their first-round NCAA Tournament match Friday. Hooray! (Click here for the USC women’s volleyball “tourney tracker.”) They’ll play Texas A&M tomorrow at 7:00 PM for the right to advance to the Sweet Sixteen. The game is at USC, and I plan to be there.

But with all due respect to the Women of Troy — and also to the men’s basketball team, which plays #15 Missouri in the Wooden Classic at 4:00 PM — the biggest games in Trojan Nation tomorrow are being played in Miami, Pasadena, and Atlanta… and none of them involve any Trojans. But these three football games (and possibly a fourth game, in Houston) will determine the postseason fate of the BCS #4-ranked Trojans. Twenty-four hours from now, USC would be heading for the national-championship game… or for the non-BCS Holiday Bowl. It all depends on tomorrow’s games.

Here is a Trojan fan’s viewing guide to Saturday’s action:

Virginia Tech at Miami
ABC, 10:00 AM Pacific time
    Root for Virginia Tech if… You want to see USC play Ohio State for the national title, and you’re willing to risk the slim (but not impossible) chance that developments later in the day could turn USC’s possible Fiesta Bowl ticket into a possible Holiday Bowl ticket.
    If you do root for Virginia Tech to win, root for them to win big. A narrow Hokies victory might not even dislodge Miami from the BCS Top 2, but wacky BCS formulas being what they are, it could boot USC from the BCS Top 4, and thus perhaps out of the big bowls altogether. (Call me crazy, but I’m not sure the Orange or Sugar bowl bastards would pick USC over Kansas State if they didn’t have to. At any rate, I’d certainly feel more confident if USC was in the Top 4.)
    Another reason to root for Virginia Tech: a Miami loss would presumably help Carson Palmer in the battle for the Heisman Trophy by spoiling the season for Ken Dorsey and Willis McGahee.
    Root for Miami if… You want to play it safe. A Miami win will assure USC of a spot in a BCS bowl once and for all, but will eliminate the Trojans from national-championship contention.

Washington State at UCLA
ABC, 1:30 PM Pacific time
    Root for UCLA if… You want USC to win the Pac-10 championship and go to the Rose Bowl. A Bruin win would land us in Pasadena on Jan. 1, unless we qualify for the Fiesta Bowl. And no matter what happens, we’d be conference champs if UCLA wins. Go Bruins!
    Root for Washington State if…
1) Miami won earlier in the day, so USC is already assured of a BCS spot;
2) You think the Sugar Bowl is just as good as the Rose Bowl; and
3) You hate the Bruins so much that seeing them lose an extra game (and possibly seeing Bob Toledo get fired) is more important to you than seeing the Trojans win the Pac-10 title outright.
(On second thought, root for UCLA no matter what! We want Bob Toledo to keep his job — that way, UCLA won’t get a better coach!)

Georgia vs. Arkansas, SEC title game, at Atlanta
CBS, 3:00 PM Pacific time
    Root for Arkansas if… Virginia Tech beat Miami earlier in the day. An Arkansas win would then open the door to a possible Fiesta Bowl appearance for the Trojans.
    Root really hard for Arkansas if… Virginia Tech beat Miami, and Washington State won or is leading over UCLA. A Georgia victory under these circumstances could possibly boot USC out of the BCS picture altogether by knocking the Trojans out of the BCS Top 4, the “guarantee zone” for an at-large bid. That’s right, if the Hokies and Cougars win, this one game could potentially mean the difference between USC playing for the national championship and USC getting snubbed by the big-time bowls altogether. Gotta love the Bowl Chaos Series.
    Root for Georgia if… Miami won earlier in the day, meaning USC is out of the Fiesta picture but in the BCS no matter what. In this case, a Georgia win is better simply because a top-notch Bulldogs team playing in the BCS would be more interesting than a mediocre Razorbacks team. In particular, if Miami won and Washington State won or is leading, the winner of this game is USC’s probable BCS opponent, and who wants to see the Trojans “challenged” by Arkansas? We want to play the best, dammit! So, in that case, go Bulldogs!

Colorado vs. Oklahoma, Big 12 title game, at Houston
ABC, 5:00 PM Pacific time
    Root for Colorado if… Virginia Tech beat Miami, and Arkansas won (or is leading); or, Virginia Tech beat Miami, and Georgia and Washington State won (or are leading). Why? Because if the Trojans end up battling Miami for a Fiesta Bowl bid, or if they end up battling Iowa for the #4 BCS spot, it could be a game of decimal points, and a Colorado win would help USC in the decimal department by increasing the Trojans’ quality-win points.
    To be more specific, knocking Oklahoma down a notch would raise Notre Dame up a notch, thus helping the Trojans, and Colorado itself could land in the Top 10 with a win, thus helping the Trojans yet again. (USC crushed Notre Dame last week, and flattened Colorado earlier in the season.)
    On the other hand, knocking Oklahoma down a notch would also raise Kansas State up a notch, would could come back to bite the Trojans if they lose a decimal-point battle against Iowa despite Colorado’s win. But all in all, if there’s going to be a decimal point battle, I think it’s best for the Trojans that Colorado win this game.
    Root for Oklahoma if… Miami and Washington State won. If USC is heading to the BCS, but not to the Fiesta Bowl or the Rose Bowl, there’s a chance we could end up playing the winner of this game. And who wants to see the Trojans face a rematch against the Colorado team we destroyed 40-3 earlier in the season? BOOOORRRRING! So, root for Oklahoma unless the Fiesta Bowl, or USC’s very spot in the BCS, are on the line.
    Root for whoever you want if… UCLA won, and either Miami or Georgia won. In this case, it just doesn’t matter; USC is headed to the Rose Bowl and this game will have no effect.

After flirting with it several times in the last two months, My world finally reached — and surpassed — the elusive century mark Thursday, surging into triple digits when a Netscape user from California surfed by the site at 8:38 PM Pacific time, giving this website its 100th hit in a single day.

The historic visitor found My world by doing a Google search for Sunset Limited, the Amtrak train that I rode from Los Angeles to New Orleans in May.

As of 11:00 PM Pacific time, My world had recorded 107 unique hits so far today. The previous record was 98, set on Sunday, Nov. 24.

My world is once again approaching its daily traffic record, this time threatening the mark of 98 that it set less than two weeks ago on Nov. 24. As of 6:38 PM Pacific time, this website has 87 unique hits today, many of them resulting from Google searches related to USC football and BCS scenarios.

Eleven more hits in the next five-plus hours would tie the record; 12 would break it; and 13 would put My world’s daily hit count into triple-digits for the first time ever. But the site has seemed certain to hit the century mark several times before, and has then stalled out in the day’s final hours, so we shall see what the rest of the evening holds.

UPDATE, 7:35 PM: Now at 90 hits and counting…

UPDATE, 8:00 PM: 94 hits with four hours to go…

Al Qaeda evidently has a nice Christmas present planned for America. Hopefully it’s a new Playstation 2.

Seriously… uh… this is a little scary.

Love him or hate him, Ol’ Strom turns 100 years old today — the first senator ever to do so. He is reportedly celebrating by taking a nap.

In other news, I came up with a new BCS nightmare scenario for USC — or a new variation on an old scenario. Let’s say Miami loses, but stays ahead of USC in the polls, and Georgia wins, thus vaulting Iowa into the #4 spot in the BCS standings, as discussed below. Let’s also assume Washington State beats UCLA, so USC doesn’t get an automatic BCS berth that way. Ohio State becomes #1, so the Rose Bowl gets the first at-large pick, and chooses Iowa. Now there’s one spot left, and it’s up to either the Sugar or Orange Bowl (depending on who’s #2, Georgia or Miami) to decide who gets it. Either bowl (Orange especially) might be tempted to take someone other than USC, which they consider a “regional” team that doesn’t travel well. But choosing Notre Dame, who the Trojans just crushed 44-13 a week earlier, instead of USC could cause a giant controversy, so many USC fans assume they’re safe even in this situation; the BCS bowls surely won’t court a public-relations disaster by taking the Irish over the Trojans, right? Maybe not… but what about Kansas State?

The Wildcats, another 10-2 team, beat USC earlier in the season, so the Trojans would have no legitimate gripe there. They’re immediately behind the Trojans in the polls, and could be ranked #7 in the final BCS standings if Oklahoma loses to Colorado, which would make them the highest-ranked at-large contender after Iowa and USC. Their only losses were to Colorado and Texas, both Top 12 teams. They’re actively lobbying for a bid to the Orange Bowl (although they seem to think they have no chance unless UCLA wins; I’m not so sure). And from what I understand, Kansas State fans do “travel well,” so the Wildcats might be a more appealing choice than the Trojans, and one the Orange or Sugar Bowls could rationally pick over USC without a giant public outcry. So there’s something else for Trojan fans to worry about. Holiday Bowl, here we come???

UPDATE, 7:13 AM: Check out CNNSI’s “Revised BCS Forecast”, in which, this week, instead of predicting what they really think will happen, they give us “the weirdest scenario we can imagine” — including USC playing in the Fiesta Bowl.

ATTENTION GOOGLERS: You can find my updated college-football posts, including 2003 BCS analysis, here.

Thanks to Andrew for his link to a BCS analyst even nerdier than me, whose calculations show that, as I suspected, USC would fall out of the BCS “guarantee zone” (i.e., the Top 4) if Miami loses and Georgia wins, but Miami stays ahead of the Trojans in the polls. However, Georgia would probably squeak into the Fiesta Bowl — unless the human pollsters keep the Hurricanes ahead of the Bulldogs, too, in both polls — in which case, as Andrew points out, “since Miami would then be the first choice of the Orange Bowl, USC would have a good shot at being selected by the Sugar Bowl” even though they’re not guaranteed a spot.)

The same nerd’s calculations also show that USC has a good chance of reaching the Fiesta Bowl if Miami and Georgia both lose, but it would be a close battle between USC and Miami for the final Fiesta Bowl spot, and it would depend on what the human polls do. If the polls split, USC probably makes it. Iowa “will not be a factor.” (They would be a factor in this sense, however: the Hawkeyes, #2 in both polls but #4 in the BCS, would be this year’s Oregon, and would have a chance to win the Associated Press poll, and thus create the first “split” national championship under the BCS system, if USC wins the Fiesta Bowl and Iowa wins the Rose Bowl. So USC, in addition to rooting for itself against Ohio State, would need to root against Iowa in the Rose Bowl.)

Speaking of which: What if UCLA beats Washington State, making USC the Pac-10 champion, but then the Trojans qualify for the Fiesta Bowl? Who goes to the Rose Bowl in USC’s place? Washington State, you say — but methinks they would drop out of the BCS Top 12 if they lose to UCLA. Who, then? The Rose Bowl would be unable to take a Pac-10 team, so… Notre Dame, perhaps? Kansas State? Texas? Hopefully they’d pick somebody good — e.g., not the Irish or Florida State — so Iowa’s opponent, and USC’s hopes for an undisputed national championship, would have a chance.

Something else to consider: If Miami and Georgia both lose, but Miami manages to squeak into the Fiesta Bowl ahead of USC — perhaps because of a nod from the coaches’ poll — does USC have a chance of earning a split championship (i.e., #1 in the AP) if Miami wins the Fiesta Bowl and the Trojans beat Iowa in the Rose Bowl (or, the Trojans beat whoever in their bowl game, and Iowa loses to Washington State in the Rose Bowl)? In other words, could the Trojans be this year’s Colorado?

If Saturday doesn’t produce any of the major upsets Trojan fans are hoping for, it looks like USC will be headed to New Orleans for the Sugar Bowl on Jan. 1 to play Southeastern Conference champion Georgia.

How do I figure? Well, it seems the Orange Bowl has promised to pick Iowa with its at-large spot, assuming Miami beats Virginia Tech on Saturday. Add two more Saturday assumptions to the mix — Georgia beats Arkansas and Washington State beats UCLA — and you get a relatively complete BCS bowl picture:

Fiesta: Miami vs. Ohio State
Orange: Iowa vs. Florida State
Rose: Washington State vs. _________
Sugar: Georgia vs. _________

The “blanks” in the Rose and Sugar bowls must be filled by USC and the Big 12 champion (the winner of Saturday’s Colorado-Oklahoma game). In other words, it’s either Washington State vs. USC and Georgia vs. Colorado/Oklahoma, or it’s Washington State vs. Colorado/Oklahoma and Georgia vs. USC.

Clearly, ABC would have no interest in staging a rematch of the USC-Washington State game from earlier this season, and I don’t think the Rose Bowl would want that, either. The Trojans might like to play the Cougars again; it would be a chance for revenge against the one Pac-10 team that beat us this season. But nobody else would want to watch an intra-conference rematch in a BCS bowl game. So the Colorado-Oklahoma winner would probably be shipped out to Pasadena for the Rose Bowl, while USC would head to New Orleans for the Sugar Bowl.

That doesn’t mean, however, that USC’s only remaining bowl possibilities are Sugar and Rose (the latter if UCLA beats Washington State). If Miami and/or Georgia lose, we could still end up in the Fiesta Bowl (if both lose and fall behind us in the polls), the Orange Bowl (if Miami loses but only falls to #2 in the BCS, giving the Rose Bowl first pick — Iowa — and forcing the Orange Bowl to pick us), or even the non-BCS Holiday Bowl (if Georgia wins, Miami loses but stays ahead of USC in the polls, and USC therefore falls behind Iowa in the BCS (see below), giving the Orange Bowl the chance to snub us for another, less-deserving at-large team). In either of the latter two scenarios, however, it’s probably more likely that the Orange Bowl would pick Colorado or Oklahoma and send us to the Sugar Bowl, in the same manner as described above.

I’d say the probabilities for USC, ranked from most likely to least likely, go something like this:
1. Sugar
2. Rose
3. Fiesta
4. Holiday
5. Orange

USC’s football team has leapfrogged Iowa and is ranked #4 in the new BCS standings. Hooray! Now, if the Trojans can hold onto their Top 4 position, they will be guaranteed a BCS bowl berth, and they only question will be where we’re headed — Rose, Sugar, Orange, or Fiesta — and who we’re playing.

But that’s a big “if.” Although the Trojans lead the Hawkeyes by a significant margin of 0.71 points, there is one scenario I can envision where we might fall to #5, giving the automatic at-large berth back to #4 Iowa. It goes like this: If #1 Miami loses to Virginia Tech on Saturday, the Hurricanes will probably drop below one-loss Iowa, but stay ahead of two-loss USC, in the coaches’ and sportswriters’ polls. Ohio State will jump to #1, and Iowa will leap to #2. If Georgia, presently ranked #4 in the polls, beats Arkansas, the Bulldogs and Hurricanes might end up #3 and #4 in the polls (in either order), with the Trojans ranked #5.

If that happens, it’d be Iowa #2 in the polls and USC #5, and we’d be three “poll points” behind the Hawkeyes, instead of our current two points back (they’re #3 and we’re #5). That one-point gain for Iowa would overcome USC’s present 0.71-point BCS lead (unless the computer polls somehow reconfigure themselves again to favor the Trojans even more).

So, it goes like this. The best-case scenario for Trojan fans would be for Miami and Georgia to both lose; that would make it possible for us to reach the national-championship Fiesta Bowl. The second-best scenario would be if Miami wins and Georgia loses; that would vault us to #3 in the BCS and #4 in the polls, and give us a chance to potentially finish #2 in the country if we win our bowl game and Iowa loses. The third-best scenario — still not bad — would be if Miami and Georgia both win; that would maintain the status quo, and we’d be guaranteed a BCS bowl berth somewhere. The worst-case scenario would be a Miami loss coupled with a Georgia win. That might lock us out of the BCS altogether, barring a UCLA upset of Washington State that would put us in the Rose Bowl.

Other things to root for: Colorado beats Oklahoma; UCLA beats Washington State. If both of those things happen, not only would we be guaranteed a Rose Bowl berth, but we’d get at least 0.30 quality-win points (Colorado would rise to at least #10 and Notre Dame to at least #9, probably), increasing our odds of ditching Roses for Tostitos (i.e., the Fiesta Bowl) if Miami and Georgia lose.

The new BCS standings aren’t out yet, so I’m left to sit around and idly speculate about scenarios…

Could USC end up playing Miami? Personally, that’s the bowl game I’d like to see — Carson Palmer against Ken Dorsey — and the Trojans probably have a better chance against the Hurricanes than Ohio State does. Miami and USC won’t play in the Fiesta Bowl, however; if the ‘Canes get there, it’ll be Hurricanes-Buckeyes. But what if Miami loses to Virginia Tech and drops back to the Orange Bowl? Could the Trojans end up playing them there?

It seems unlikely — in fact, the Hurricanes are probably the least likely Trojan opponent of all the potential BCS teams, because the Orange Bowl hates USC so much. (Bowl officials there are convinced that USC fans won’t make the cross-country trek to attend the game, thus depressing ticket sales.) But is it possible it could happen anyway, much to the Orange Bowl’s chagrin?

Yes — maybe. First of all, Washington State would need to beat UCLA on Saturday, to keep the Trojans from qualifying for the Rose Bowl. Obviously, Miami would need to lose to Virginia Tech, to knock itself out of the Fiesta Bowl. And Georgia would need to beat Arkansas, grabbing Miami’s Fiesta Bowl spot. It might also help if Colorado beats Oklahoma in the Big 12 championship game, for reasons that will be explained below.

If all of that happened, the Rose Bowl would be Washington State vs. Iowa and the Fiesta Bowl would be Ohio State vs. Georgia. Miami would be in the Orange Bowl, with three open spots remaining — one each for USC, Florida State, and the Colorado/Oklahoma winner. Two of the open spots would be in the Sugar Bowl; the other would be in the Orange Bowl.

The Sugar Bowl would get the first pick from among those three teams. If we’re really lucky, they’d pick Colorado (who, let’s assume for the moment, beats Oklahoma on Saturday). After that, the Orange and Sugar bowls would have to fight it out for the remaining two spots. At all costs, the Orange Bowl would try to negotiate its way out of a USC-Miami matchup. But ABC, which plays a role in the selection process, would want to avoid a USC-Colorado Sugar Bowl matchup and a Miami-Florida State Orange Bowl matchup, because both would be rematches of regular-season games, and therefore boring to viewers and deadly for ratings. So ABC might then pressure the Orange Bowl to take USC despite its misgivings, since a Palmer-Dorsey matchup would surely be a ratings winner.

It’s unlikely, but anything is possible in the wonderful world of the Bowl Chaos Series…

Meanwhile, ESPN.com’s Ivan Maisel rightly points out that the injured ankle of Washington State quarterback Jason Gesser may be the key to the entire college football postseason, and perhaps the whole future of the BCS system. And ESPN Magazine notes that you can’t spell BCS without ‘SC. :)