The new BCS standings aren’t out yet, so I’m left to sit around and idly speculate about scenarios…
Could USC end up playing Miami? Personally, that’s the bowl game I’d like to see — Carson Palmer against Ken Dorsey — and the Trojans probably have a better chance against the Hurricanes than Ohio State does. Miami and USC won’t play in the Fiesta Bowl, however; if the ‘Canes get there, it’ll be Hurricanes-Buckeyes. But what if Miami loses to Virginia Tech and drops back to the Orange Bowl? Could the Trojans end up playing them there?
It seems unlikely — in fact, the Hurricanes are probably the least likely Trojan opponent of all the potential BCS teams, because the Orange Bowl hates USC so much. (Bowl officials there are convinced that USC fans won’t make the cross-country trek to attend the game, thus depressing ticket sales.) But is it possible it could happen anyway, much to the Orange Bowl’s chagrin?
Yes — maybe. First of all, Washington State would need to beat UCLA on Saturday, to keep the Trojans from qualifying for the Rose Bowl. Obviously, Miami would need to lose to Virginia Tech, to knock itself out of the Fiesta Bowl. And Georgia would need to beat Arkansas, grabbing Miami’s Fiesta Bowl spot. It might also help if Colorado beats Oklahoma in the Big 12 championship game, for reasons that will be explained below.
If all of that happened, the Rose Bowl would be Washington State vs. Iowa and the Fiesta Bowl would be Ohio State vs. Georgia. Miami would be in the Orange Bowl, with three open spots remaining — one each for USC, Florida State, and the Colorado/Oklahoma winner. Two of the open spots would be in the Sugar Bowl; the other would be in the Orange Bowl.
The Sugar Bowl would get the first pick from among those three teams. If we’re really lucky, they’d pick Colorado (who, let’s assume for the moment, beats Oklahoma on Saturday). After that, the Orange and Sugar bowls would have to fight it out for the remaining two spots. At all costs, the Orange Bowl would try to negotiate its way out of a USC-Miami matchup. But ABC, which plays a role in the selection process, would want to avoid a USC-Colorado Sugar Bowl matchup and a Miami-Florida State Orange Bowl matchup, because both would be rematches of regular-season games, and therefore boring to viewers and deadly for ratings. So ABC might then pressure the Orange Bowl to take USC despite its misgivings, since a Palmer-Dorsey matchup would surely be a ratings winner.
It’s unlikely, but anything is possible in the wonderful world of the Bowl Chaos Series…
Meanwhile, ESPN.com’s Ivan Maisel rightly points out that the injured ankle of Washington State quarterback Jason Gesser may be the key to the entire college football postseason, and perhaps the whole future of the BCS system. And ESPN Magazine notes that you can’t spell BCS without ‘SC. :)
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Categories: College Football
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It’s amazing to see the entire country suddenly waking up to the reality that USC football is incredibly good. Exhibit A: Carson Palmer, #4 last week, is now ranked #1 in CNNSI.com’s Heisman Watch. And rightfully so.
Out here on the West Coast, we’ve known for weeks that Palmer is the nation’s best player and the Trojans are one of the nation’s best teams. (The best, if you judge based on how well they’re playing right now. Unfortunately, the Trojans probably won’t have a chance to prove that because of two early-season losses.) But it took a nationally televised stomping of Notre Dame — who, let’s face it, turns out to have really sucked — to make the rest of the country take notice.
Although USC’s regular season is over, much remains to be determined. The first big moment of truth will come tomorrow when the new BCS standings are released. Will USC leapfrog Iowa and move into the #4 spot that would, if they hold it at the end of next week, guarantee the Trojans a big-money bowl? (CNNSI thinks so.) Will Notre Dame drop out of the BCS Top 12 and put the rest of the college football world out of the Irish’s misery? (Probably not.)
Then come the big games next weekend. There’s Miami-Virginia Tech, Georgia-Arkansas, and Washington State-UCLA. What USC needs — in order to be absolutely, positively guaranteed a BCS spot — is a win by either Arkansas or UCLA (or both). As for Miami-Virginia Tech, the significance of that game lies in its potential national-championship implications for the Trojans if both Miami and Georgia lose. Could 10-2 USC get into the Fiesta Bowl in place of two 11-1 teams, Iowa and Miami? CNNSI thinks it’s possible; ESPN apparently doesn’t. I think it could happen, but probably only if Miami loses badly to Virginia Tech — a blowout loss, or a loss in which the Hurricanes just really look awful — such that at least one poll, and preferably both, drop them all the way down to #4 (behind both Iowa and USC).
Anyway… Go Razorbacks! Go Hokies! GO BRUINS!!!
UPDATE, 2:01 AM: The New York Times computer ratings, which have loved USC all season, now have the Trojans ranked #1 in the country — yep, ahead of both undefeated teams — according to nytimes.com. Hooray! That’ll definitely help us pass Iowa…
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Categories: College Football
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