By Jim Kelly

I had not even heard about the Beck Rally until about two weeks ago.  Normally I look on these sorts of events with a mild curiosity, but rarely does this curiosity force me to get off my duff and actually make the 30-minute trip down to the Mall from my home in suburban Maryland, along the dreaded Green Line.  But today would be different, as I had already made plans to enjoy one of the favorite pastimes of the East Coast Liberal Elite: going to a museum.  As I’d be down there anyway, I decided to head down a little early and check things out.

To be fair to rally attendees, there were plenty of trucks in the College Park Metro station garage, making it immediately obvious that Beck supporters aren’t as scared of traveling in areas where they “don’t know where [they] are.”  As Maryland is an overwhelmingly liberal state, the fact that there was an overrepresentation of trucks and bumper stickers saying, “NObama” was a pretty good indication that we’d had some Beck supporters head into the city from there.

I didn’t make it down there until about noon, right when the rally should be reaching its crescendo (it was slated to finish at 1PM).  Exiting at Archives, I headed East down the Mall towards the Washington Monument and Lincoln Memorial.  At first the mall was rather empty save for a few people who had cut out early walking the other way.  You could spot them immediately, with their rally shirts or wrapped in their Gadsden flags (which incidentally I’ve been hearing really pisses some people in the Navy off).  As I approached the Washington Monument, we passed a small set-up with a picture of King and speakers that appeared to be playing a recording of the speeches from the day of King’s famous “I Have a Dream” speech.

As we reached the Washington Monument, you could see the first groups of rally attendees, mostly shuttling back and forth from the rally, although some had camped out on the high ground of the monument’s mound to get a better vantage point.  Continuing eastbound we crossed 17th street before hitting real “crowds.”  I met up with a friend there who, along with my wife, was sporting an Obama t-shirt.  We met several locals who were, as one person put it, “there to see the freak show.”  Additionally we actually met one liberal in the crowd who had driven down from Pennsylvania to see what was going on.

All in all, I’ll say the crowd was respectful of our display of opposing opinions. I heard a couple people scoff at my wife’s shirt, but nothing overly disrespectful or vulgar.  I’ve heard reports that some counter-protesters got into minor scuffles or tense moments with rally attendees, but to their credit, the attendees were largely respectful.  Granted, we weren’t holding up a sign like this guy.

After a few minutes poking around the edges of the crowd near the WWII Memorial, we decided to wade in a bit, and I was surprised to see that the crowd really didn’t spill over to the sides at all; the grass around the WWII Memorial was pretty empty.  On the reflecting pool side of the memorial, however, things started getting a little packed, and we continued up to there before deciding against heading further into the crowd, lest we block our escape should they cry for liberal blood (I kid, I kid).

We stood there for a little bit, listening to Beck’s speech, trying to gauge the reaction of the crowd.  I was a little surprised to hear the religious connotations to the speech. It was not overly political, a theme that apparently I was not the only one to pick up on.  Indeed Beck was careful to criticize both Republicans and Democrats alike when he strayed to politics.  In fact, of the 10 minutes or so I really listened to (admittedly not a lot), I thought his pronouncements were relatively mild.  He asked people to be charitable, brought up issues with people paying for healthcare bills and generally seemed to call for things that even a liberal could love.  When one of my group remarked jokingly that it sounded like Beck was calling for socialism, people around us tilted their heads a little oddly, but you could tell that while they didn’t quite think Beck was calling for socialism, perhaps they weren’t getting what they were looking for out of the rally.

Indeed, on my way home on the metro later that day, I overheard a group that had been at the rally, driving all the way in from Ohio, lamenting that the crowd was not “whipped up.”  This was universally the reaction amongst those who had attended with me, that the crowd seemed subdued.  We discussed what this could mean.  Would this equate to lower turnout?  More disorganization?  Burnout?  It might be tempting to think that, but with people driving so far just to attend a rally, there is a certain amount of inherent dedication to the cause that one must assume.  I was left thinking it was hard to read what that meant.

The man on the train also made another comment that I thought was interesting.  He said that Beck’s speech was essentially just a rehash of the kinds of things he says daily.  Apparently this man “listens” to Beck daily, although I don’t know in what capacity, on television or radio.  That comment is interesting in that this religious push that the media seems to be registering may have been going on longer than we’ve noticed, just coming to the fore recently.  I used to listen to Beck years ago on talk radio in Philadelphia (yeah, I liked getting my blood pressure up), and he was pretty secular back then as I remember it.  I always thought he was kind of the goofy guy who didn’t really think things out too well and made funny voices.  I can’t say I thought he was ever going to go this far.

The general mood as we trudged away from the rally a little early to beat the crowd seemed to be that people liked it.  It was a subdued like, but people seemed happy with the message.  Again, it’s hard to read what that will mean for the November elections.  One amusing sticker I saw on some people was, “I can see November from my house.”  Heh.  Well played.

As a last note, I’d like to discuss crowd size estimates.  First I’ll say I think crowd size estimates are a little ridiculous in that everyone seems to seem to want to use them to legitimize or delegitimize an event.  I think that’s stupid.  As much as I disagree with the people out at the rally, I have to give them credit for not just getting out of their house, but in many cases coming in from all over the place (the furthest travel I saw direct evidence of was from Minnesota, that’s impressive).  If you can get thousands of people together, you should be applauded.  Now certainly things change a little when you break a million.  With a million people you need to stop and say, “wow, people are pretty pissed.”  But that doesn’t take away from the achievement of getting all the people they did.  I have participated in protests far smaller than this rally on the mall, and I don’t consider the cause I supported any less legitimate than theirs.

That said, out of some sense of things being “right” or to be pedantic, I’ll throw my observations into the mix as regards crowd size.  First, let’s start with the ridiculous, and throw those out.  According to Newser’s round up of estimates, Michelle Bachmann said that, “we’re not going to let anyone get away with saying there were less than a million here today.”  That’s utterly preposterous, and along the lines of the whole “is Fox stupid or evil” thing, it’s hard to decide if she’s trying to be deliberately obtuse or if she’s just a moron.  The Obama inauguration paralyzed the city, clogged the entire mall, not just the portion past 17th St NW, and has been estimated at between 800,000 and 1.8 million (pretty big swing, huh?).  It is not possible that this rally even was a quarter as big.  Flat out.

My own completely irrelevant guesstimate was 100k, a number I pulled completely out of my ass as a guess while we were there.  CBS news seems to be saying 78-98k, which I would believe.  ABC and NBC have said the “100s of thousands” was a possible estimate, although I believe NBC said either 10s or 100s of thousands (pretty big swing again, huh?).  Fox, unsurprisingly, uncritically took Beck’s estimate (at least according to Newser they did) of 500k people, which again is just flat out wrong.  If I was going to adjust my range based on the estimates and what I saw that day, I’d say 80-150k people.  Since it didn’t even really cross 17th St NW and did not spill over to the sides very much and people weren’t standing in the reflecting pool, it just can’t be that much.  But again, that’s more in a sense of pedantic correctness than for political reasons.  It beat the pants off of any protest I’ve attended there as regards attendance.  :)

If anyone is interested, I have a few more photos not shown here on my Flickr page.

Added: Here’s an overhead shot of the mall to consider when thinking about the crowd size estimate:

http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q….

By David K.

Desert News blogger Jared Eborn says that a source has informed him that talks between BYU and the WAC continue and that ESPN is still involved.

BYU is apparently still commited to independence (which would jive with why they haven’t declared that they are staying in the Mountain West yet) and that the WAC is still a viable landing spot ESPECIALLY if they can land a few members with the help of the stormin Mormons and some assurances from ESPN. Not only is there talk of reaching out to Conference USA schools, but some Mountain West schools as well. It’s doubtful that conference leaders like TCU or recent WAC defectees Boise State, Nevada or Fresno State would jump back to the WAC, but Eborn mentions MWC bottom feeders New Mexico and Colorado State, along with Wyoming and Air Force as potential targets.

Such a scenario could end up helping the Mountain West. Shedding dead weight like New Mexico, or the decent Wyoming team that brings in little TV-wise, could help the Mountain West increase its perception as a potential BCS league, particuarly if they can pick up teams like Houston and UTEP from Conference USA to move back up to 10 teams.

As I’ve said before, I think it makes sense for New Mexico to pair with its in-state rival (just as Nevada and UNLV are now paired in the MWC). Pick up the Lobos plus one more school, and the WAC is back to a safe 8 teams in football, and 9 with BYU in all other sports.

By David K.

By David K.

Jon Wilner of the San Jose Mercury News added a late night update to his blog with some new info on the MWC/WAC conference shakeup and BYU’s next moves.

First, there is the news that BYU has reached out to the West Coast Conference. The WCC doesn’t have football, so this would be the destination for BYU’s other sports if they go independent in football. The WCC is most well-known for mid-major basketball power Gonzaga, so adding BYU would be a coup. The religious makeup of the WCC (7 Catholic and 1 Protestant institution) is also a good fit for the LDS-affiliated BYU.

Second, Hawaii has reached out to the Big West (also a non-football conference, made up of all California schools) for its non football sports, as it also ponders independence in football.

Third, Utah State is talking with the Mountain West about membership, after turning down an initial offer last week in order to stay with the WAC (which it obviously assumed others would do as well). With the WAC falling apart (especially if Hawaii leaves too), they need somewhere to land, and the Mountain West would like to maintain a presence in Salt Lake City.

If BYU goes independent and Utah State joins the Mountain West, that puts the MWC back at 11. They will certainly push for a 12th member. Houston is a logical option. On the other hand, with Fresno State and San Diego State already in the conference, and the WAC collapsing, the Cal State system might push the Mountain West to pick up San Jose State either as the 12th or 13th member. Louisiana Tech has two potential landing spots, either the Sun Belt or Conference USA (especially if Houston leaves for the Mountain West).

That would leave Idaho and New Mexico State floating in the wind. Of the two, New Mexico State is in the best shape, as they are within spitting distance of some of the Sun Belt and Conference USA schools (New Mexico State is practically next door to UTEP).

Idaho is screwed. I mean seriously, where do they go? The Mountain West doesn’t want them, they are ridiculously far from any other conference, and independence would be rough. If I’m the Vandals, I’m lobbying the remaining WAC school as hard as possible to stick together, and hopefully pull off a few surprises of their own to stay alive.

What can the WAC do to stay afloat? With 6 teams, they can survive for a couple of years, but they need to get back up to 8 to keep their automatic bids to NCAA tournaments and such.

Possible Division I-A expansion targets would be UTEP, North Texas, Rice, SMU and Tulsa.

Possible Division I-AA targets would be UC-Davis, Cal Poly, Montana, UT-San Antonio (who will begin a football team in 2011 headed by former Miami coach Larry Coker).

If the WAC survives, I imagine it would trade UTEP for Louisiana Tech (with an NCAA exception for the 6 schools together rule) and pick up North Texas and a couple of I-AA schools (UT-San Antonio and one or both of the Cal schools).

By Tim Stevens

I just finished watching this summer’s most scathing indictment of our current political scene and gender politics. I just finished watching the video for Katy Perry’s “California Gurls.”

Continue reading »

By David K.

Over at SI.com, Stewart Mandel and Andy Staples have joined forces to make 10 bold (and not so bold) predictions on the directions college football will take over the next decade. The whole thing is a great read, but here are some of the highlights:

First, looking back, Mandel and Staples note that, at the beginning of the last decade, USC, LSU, and Ohio State all failed to finish above .500 the previous season, and all would soon hire new coaches (Pete Caroll, Nick Saban, Jim Tressel). By decade’s end, they would be national powers, combining for five national titles.

Meanwhile, Boise State was about to finish its final season in the I-AA Big West conference before moving to — and dominating — the WAC, with 7 titles, and two BCS berths in the decade. Now the Broncos are moving on up to the Mountain West.

Miami, Virginia Tech, and BC were members of the Big East. Cincinnatti and Louisville were in Conference USA.

As for their predictions for the next decade:

#1: BCS Expansion: A seventh AQ conference (the Mountain West) and a 5th BCS Bowl Game (I’m thinking Cotton Bowl)

#2: A non-BCS team will play for the National Championship (although if the Mountain West becomse an AQ this may not happen) — they point out Utah, Boise State, and TCU as likely suspects.

#3: New star coaches (this one is kind of a duh, this will always happen)

#4: Football will become an even bigger TV commodity

#5: UCLA and Tennessee: The USC and Florida of the ’10s? (I’ll believe it when I see it, Rick hasn’t shown the success Pete did in his first few seasons)

#6: Football in 3-D

#7: Notre Dame will lose its independence in the next wave of re-allignment. With the Big Ten and Big 12 joining the Pac-10/12 in moving to 9 conference game schedules, it’s going to be harder for the Irish to schedule quality opponents, on top of which, a major re-alignment (following the inevitable collapse of the Big 12 Lite) would likely affect the Big East and Notre Dame’s non-football sports affiliations.

#8: The Spread and the Pro styles learn to co-exist

#9: Return of the Option offense

#10: Grassroots football (think 7-on-7 tournaments involving lots of top recruits, a la AAU basketball) is growing.

By Tim Stevens

This Tuesday, less than three-quarters of a mile from my front door, employees of Hartford Distributors, Inc., their friends and family, emergency vehicles and personnel, and members of the press gathered at Manchester High School, on the lawn and parking lot, and across the street, because some three miles away from my front door, a man had opened fire on his co-workers. The attack, which I am certain felt far longer than the hour-and-a-half it lasted, claimed the lives of eight people—Victor James, Douglas Scruton, Craig Pepin, Louis Felder, William Ackerman, Bryan Cirigliano, Francis Fazio, and Edwin Kennison—before the gunman, Omar Thornton, killed himself.

It is the third time in my life that I have been within mere miles of a shocking act of violence.

Continue reading »

By David K.

Clearly, based on the picture below, taken at Pac-10 media day, we can see how the new divisons are going to shake out (with Colorado and Utah split between the two):

Division A: Arizona, ASU, Cal, Oregon, Oregon State
Division B: Stanford, UCLA, USC, Washington, Washington State

What do you mean, it’s insane to base my conclusions on this completely out-of-context picture? What do you mean, those divisions make absolutely no sense whatsoever? This is a blog on the internet! What else is it for, but drawing baseless conclusions by taking things out of context that make no sense?!?

UPDATE BY BRENDAN: Alternate theory: the teams are listed in alphabetical order. :) Heh.

By David K.

An article in the Denver Post today mentions comments from Big 12 Commissioner Dan Beebe indicating that Colorado will depart after this year and join the Pac-10 in 2011 rather than 2012. I’ve gotta admit, the Pac-12 starting in 2012 had a nice symmetry to it, but it’s probably better for all involved that it happen sooner rather than later.

By Joe Mama

Not me, Kevin Williamson:

Man, I miss the fiscal discipline of the Bush era!

Gulp.

I never expected to write those words. The Bush-era Republicans were out-of-control big spenders, fiending for appropriations, handing out largesse, creating giant new health-care entitlements here, building nations there, all with a devil-may-care attitude about where the money would come from. They were all carrot and no stick, cutting taxes but not doing a thing about spending.

And then…

RTWT

Perhaps the money quote is this:

Whatever you think about socialism, here is an undeniable fact: Canadians are better at it than Americans are.

By David K.

2 found dead in Forks after standoff

By David K.

ESPN.com’s Pac-10 blogger Ted Miller has been having some fun with some best case/worst case scenarios for each of the confernence teams in his blog recently, but today’s take on Oregon was the most hilarious by far, finishing with this gem for their worst case scenario:

Oregon loses the Las Vegas Bowl to Utah and finishes 8-5.

Phil Knight converts to Buddhism, gives his fortune to the United Way and moves to Tibet. Chip Kelly goes with him.

Tyrone Willingham comes out of retirement to become the Ducks head coach.

Here’s the other eight he has finished so far, USC is still to come and will probably be the most entertaining read of all!

Arizona
Arizona State
Cal
Oregon State
Stanford
UCLA
Washington
Washington State

By David K.

Today’s XKCD reminds us that the biggest rip off is not texting fees, baggage fees, or even the price of gasoline. It’s graphing calculators:

By David K.

Bob Condotta’s Husky Blog for the Seattle Times continues to be a great source of information on Pac-12 expansion. He was the one who posted the link to updated information on the possibility of the zipper expansion that led to my post earlier in the week. Earlier today he posted another link to an article by fellow Seattle Times writer Bud Withers about TV revenue sharing in the Pac-10.

Turns out, contrary to what I had believed before, the Pac-10 doesn’t do full revenue sharing from the money that individual TV games pull in. The teams involved in the game keep 55%, with the rest being split 45% to all 10 teams (meaning the teams in a league game get 32% each, while each other team gets 4.5%).

While this has been an issue in the past, it hasn’t been as bad because all schools played at least some games in the high media markets in California. With divisional splits on the table, however, this raises a big roadblock. Splitting certain schools out of the L.A. media market, in particular, would be a major hit to those programs financially. It’s no wonder the rest of the conference is so keen on seeing the California schools remain in their division (that, along with recruiting exposure, is why a split that puts the NW and new schools in a north division is dead on arrival).

The change in conference membership is setting the stage for some changes, however. In the past, the L.A. schools along with Washington have been against a change in the revenue sharing agreement, and since it takes a 75 percent supermajority — i.e., an 8-2 vote — to change the financial policies, things pretty much stayed as they were. With two new members joining the conference, however, the vote needed split to change policy shifts to 9-3, so even if the Huskies stuck with the Trojans and Bruins, it wouldn’t be enough. Moreover, on top of the change in numbers, there has been change in the air at Washington as well. A decade of struggle and a new athletic director who favors equal revenue sharing means the L.A. schools would have to get not one, but TWO votes from other schools to keep the old deal in place.

The other interesting piece of the puzzle is that (hopefully soon to be former) USC athletic director Mike Garrett has previously threatened to leave the conference completely if the revenue deals were changed. But just as Washington’s fortunes fell in the past decade, the Trojans are facing tough times of their own, and may not have the clout they used to have, especially with lame-duck Garrett, so his threats are likely empty now.

So what does this all mean? No one but the AD’s know for sure, but my guess is that the Pac-10 will move to an equal revenue sharing system (hey, it works for the SEC and Big Ten), and in return for this, the California schools will be allowed to continue to play each other annually. So how does that work for the rest of the schools in the conference? I think it’s even more likely that we’ll see a Zipper divisional setup with pod scheduling, as was discussed in the previous post’s comment section.

By David K.

Jon Wilner of the San Jose Mercury News has a new blog post with updates on the Pac-10/Pac-12 realignment and other conference issues. Particularly interesting are the following:

The “zipper” plan is gaining traction thanks to a number of factors, including:
- The Northwest schools’ reluctance to give up games in the L.A. area
- The California schools’ desire to stay together
- Not mentioned but likely obvious is the desire of the mountain schools to be included with the L.A. schools as well.

The zipper would basically provide the solution that is the least bad to the most people. Not anyone’s ideal, but not screwing any particular set of schools enough to make it unacceptable.

One variation on the previously discussed zipper would be a partial zipper that only splits the California schools. UCLA and Cal with the Northwest schools, USC and Stanford with the Mountain schools.

I still think the most likely outcomes are either a pure zipper (UW, UO, Cal, UCLA, UA, Utah vs. WSU, OSU, Stanford, USC, ASU, Col) or a north-south alignment that splits the California schools. A north/south split that groups the NW schools and the two new schools is going to be dead on arrival because you will get overwhelming disapproval from that entire grouping.

In conclusion, we can all blame this on Texas for screwing up the Pac-16 plan, which would have avoided the whole issue completely. Curse you, Bevo!

[Bumped. -ed.]

By dcl

This kind of crap needs to be stopped. The sooner we just put the whole f*ing health insurance industry out of business the better off we’ll all be. Yes, because the mindless bureaucrats in Washington are the ones we need to watch out for…

In response to those that say it’s socialism, so what, who cares? If it works and it makes sure people get the health care they need who the f*^$ cares if it’s socialism, seriously? For those scoring at home socialized medicine works, is cheeper, and makes people happy (C.F. Scandinavia). Socialism is not a threat to democracy (anyone that tries to convince you differently does not actually understand what words mean) nor is socialism a threat to freedom (a point that is more arguable, but only slightly and is really kind of dumb) and we already have it and people like it… “Keep the government out of my Medicare!” Seriously? What the hell are people smoking? Though the most worrisome statistic I’ve ever come across, 26% of americans (40% for those between 18 and 29) are not sure whom America declared it’s independence…” 6% gave a completely wrong answer, including France (an ally in the American Revolution), also Japan, China and a few others… My head hurts. (Sadly, the author of the release doesn’t know much about grammar and so Brendan will be annoyed.)

By Tim Stevens

After a brutally lackluster June (and I say this as a movie fan who can be persuaded to go to the cinema with the weakest of arguments on almost any occasion), July has arrived! And yes, this past week was, shall we say, a bit disconcerting—while I have not seen it, I understand critics and people alike failed to take a shine to The Last Airbender—there are signs that help is the on the way! Those signs, in my opinion, start this week.

Continue reading »

By dcl

[Bumped to top. -ed.]

In preface, I think I’ve officially become a cranky old man… I don’t have any problem with the short form Census that was sent out earlier in the year. It is a Constitutionally mandated function of the government, and an accurate count of the population is necessary for a number of things. But all they really need to know is how many people live at the address. Which is, with slightly more detail, all the short form really asks, and I’m cool with that and it’s not particularly invasive.

But I have to say, I have to agree with the staunchest of bat s*#$ crazy libertarian conservatives when it comes to the “American Community Survey.” Continue reading »

By David K.

Well it’s official, folks, the 12-team Big Ten will continue with its tradition of not knowing how to count. Maybe they could just say they only count the ten best teams each year, and the other two are on probation or something?

By Joe Loy

The quote, of course, is from “M” as wonderfully portrayed by Judi Dench in “Casino Royale”, 2006.

The inspiration is from the FBI, which has just busted a veritable burrowfull of Russian moles, operating here under Deep Cover for many years.

No one answered the telephone late Monday afternoon at the news media office for the Russian Embassy. A State Department spokesman referred questions on the case’s potential diplomatic sensitivities to the Justice Department.

Indeed. / Now what I wanna know is, did President Obama mention the impending Russkie Spy Sweep to President Medvedev, during either their White House meeting or their Ray’s Hell Burger luncheon last Thursday? (Of course I’m Assuming that the FBI via AG Holder was keeping POTUS in the Loop. / In the mostUnlikely event that they Weren’t, then I’m thinking Eric [yeah, EVEN Eric] might be getting the old “Pack your sh*t” memo. ;)

And so, in not-Quite-altogether-unrelated Conclusion, let us never forget the wise diplomatic words of President Merkin Muffley: “Gentlemen, you can’t fight in here! This is the War Room!”

(OK OK, so it IS altogether Unrelated already. I just Like that Quote. :)

P.S.: yes I do realize that the global importance of a potential Espionage FallingOut between the world’s 2 still-nuclear-Armed-to-the-Teeth nations Pales in comparison to the galactic significance of the Wonderfulness of the iPhone 4; but give an old Coldwarrior a Break, here, after all I Flew a Crib during the Berlin Airlift. :)