It’s too early to be remotely certain, but Hurricane Sandy has the potential to become a big f***in’ deal for the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, transitioning into an epic storm of historic proportions — not a major hurricane per se, but a monster warm-core/cold-core hybrid, possibly a “subtropical hurricane” (a category which isn’t even supposed to exist) — and slamming the… Read more »
Again, for coverage of T.S. Isaac, check out my Pajamas Media “Weather Nerd” blog, and also follow me on Twitter. Forget Tampa and the RNC — that’s a sideshow. This storm is looking increasingly scary for New Orleans, though there’s still a great deal of uncertainty. Here’s what one computer model predicted Saturday night: Yikes!! But again, that’s just one… Read more »
It’s way too early to be certain of where Tropical Storm Isaac will go, but Republican National Convention organizers have to be pretty nervous right now. The official NHC forecast has Isaac, by then a Category 1 hurricane, making a beeline for Tampa on the first day of the RNC (next Monday), and the most recent run of the GFS… Read more »
I’m blogging again over at Weather Nerd. Here’s an excerpt from this morning’s update on Tropical Storm Nate: Sometimes, in the life of a tropical cyclone, there is a distinct turning point in the evolution of the track forecast, where the computer models suddenly shift toward a new and markedly different solution. When this happens, the National Hurricane Center…generally waits… Read more »
Katia, the storm that took Katrina’s place on the name list, is now officially a hurricane as of 11pm EDT, with winds of 75 mph. Hurricane Katia is expected to keep strengthening — to 100 mph in 1 day, 110 mph in 2 days, 115 mph in 3 days and 120 in 4 days (and it would hardly be shocking… Read more »
Dude… it’s PajamasMedia.com. I apologize to my LRT readers for having so little coverage of Hurricane Irene here, while I was blogging up a storm (pun intended) over at my Pajamas Media site, Weather Nerd. Ideally, I would have done more partial cross-posting — understandably, PJM doesn’t let me do full cross-posts, since they pay me for exclusive content, but… Read more »
Sorry for the lack of updates here. I’ve been tracking Irene over at Weather Nerd for Pajamas Media (hey, they pay me!), and on Twitter… while also still, y’know, having a job and a family 🙂 … so I just haven’t had very much time to post here as well. But anyway, as I’m sure you all know by now,… Read more »
Sorry to keep posting these computer model maps, but they’re just so sensational, I can’t help myself. From the 0Z GFS: Over on Weather Nerd, I write: Holy hell. That map is downright terrifying. (It’s even worse when viewed as an animation. Hat tip: Ryan Maue.) It represents something pretty darn close to the true worst-case scenario, the New York… Read more »
It’s still way too early to focus on specific possible landfall points, let alone those indicated by individual model runs. Forecasts 4 and 5 days out have huge errors. These predictions can and will change. All that said, check out the 18Z GFS… Wow.
The computer models forecasting Hurricane Irene’s track have shifted back west today, decisively ending the eastward “trend” of the forecasts, and bringing New Jersey, New York City, Long Island, and Southern New England very much back into the bullseye of the risk zone. This also increases the risk of a direct hit (rather than a glancing blow) in North Carolina,… Read more »