Most Trojan fans consider a “perfect day” to be a day when USC wins, and Notre Dame and UCLA both lose. As an “Irish Trojan,” I have a different definition: a Brendan Loy Perfect Day is a day when USC and ND both win, and UCLA loses. That’s happened a bunch of times since I enrolled at Notre Dame.

What hadn’t happened, not even once, in the six years since I became an Irish Trojan, is the exact opposite of a Brendan Loy Perfect Day: USC and ND both lose, and UCLA wins. Until yesterday.

UCLA’s blowout win over Pullman High School Washington State is really just adding insult to injury. The losses by USC and Notre Dame are bad enough on their own. In fact, believe it or not, that simple combination — a Trojan loss and an Irish loss on the same day — is itself unprecedented, even without the added condition of a Bruin win, since I started law school at ND.

Ugh.

In the wake of the Eugene Massacre, my posts on the BCS championship game “pecking order” have lost all significance for USC fans. It would take a nationwide collapse of utterly epic, cataclysmic proportions — making the BCS chaos of 2007 look like a day at the beach — to get the two-loss Trojans back into the national championship picture. At this point, USC’s position in the title-game pecking order (or should I say quacking order?) is somewhere behind Boise State, TCU, Houston, William & Mary, Appalachian State, Glastonbury High School, and your local peewee league team. All thanks to this a**hole:

Now, having said that, I am personally still rooting for Texas, Iowa and Cincinnati to lose, in order to open the door to another glorious BCS controversy — and a potential invite for TCU or Boise State, assuming Oregon is the top one-loss team in the mix. But it doesn’t look likely to happen, what with Texas apparently peaking at the right time and needing only to defeat five utterly overmatched opponents (UCF, Baylor, Kansas, Texas A&M, and the champion of the dreadful Big 12 North) in order to finish undefeated and land, almost by default, in its appointed spot in Pasadena for a matchup with Florida/Alabama/LSU. So, unless and until there’s some movement at the top of the standings, I won’t be wasting too much more time with that “pecking order.”

But there’s a different “pecking order,” one that I’ve touched on briefly before, which is now extremely relevant to USC fans — and Notre Dame fans, too. It’s the BCS at-large pecking order, and unlike the contest to earn a spot in the championship game, it is determined primarily by non-football factors like national profile, potential ratings, and butts-in-seats, with actual athletic merit being almost a sideshow. You gotta earn your way into the Top 14 by season’s end, but once you’re there, the actual selections are all about money, money, money.

Anyway, here’s the deal. There are 10 available spots in the five BCS bowls. Six of them (including, presumably, both title-game slots) will go to the six BCS conference champions. Another spot, an “automatic at-large,” will go to either TCU or Boise State, or, in the unlikely event that both of those teams lose, possibly to one-loss Utah or Houston (currently #14 and #15, and sure to rise into the Top 12 if they win out). If no team from a non-AQ conference finishes in the Top 12 (or the Top 16 and ahead of the lowest-ranked BCS conference champ), then there’s no “BCS buster,” but that’s highly unlikely. Almost certainly, some mid-major squad gets an automatic ticket to the BCS.

That leaves three true “at-large” spots, which the bowls are free to fill which any eligible (i.e., Top 14) teams they want — but no more than one at-large per conference. After the jump, I consider who those three invites might go to.

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First things first: Charlie Weis is a complete and utter moron. His inexplicable and indefensible decision to go for it on 4th-and-goal, instead of taking the chip-shot field goal to tie the game with 11 minutes left, was the last straw. It convinced me, once and for all, that Charlie Choo-Choo should be fired. Enough is enough. (And yes, I criticized the decision before it failed. It would have been a dumbass move even if it had worked.)

It was classic Weis — mistaking stupidity for ballsiness, putting too much reliance on his alleged tactical brilliance, failing to understand the limitations of his personnel — and it could easily have cost the Irish the game. Luckily, Golden Tate & co. bailed Weis out on the next drive:

Alas, despite Tate’s brilliance, and despite the relief of finally beating Fredo, Notre Dame was by no means impressive in its 20-16 win over Boston College. It’s one thing to make USC freshman Matt Barkley look like a Heisman Trophy candidate; it’s another to make BC freshman Dave Shinskie look that way (well, until he started throwing interceptions late).

And yet, despite looking like crap, despite another too-close win over an inferior opponent, Notre Dame will be ranked next week.

Why? No, not because of bias, Irish-haters. Because of simple attrition. Four teams from last week’s AP poll — #8 Miami, #16 BYU, #21 Texas Tech and #24 Kansas — all lost this week. So did three of the teams who, like Notre Dame, received double-digit numbers in the “others receiving votes” category last week. #26 and #27 Notre Dame and Ole Miss won, but #28 South Florida, #29 Nebraska, and #30 Michigan all lost.

I expect the Irish to be ranked either #22 or #23, depending on how far Miami falls. Because the Hurricanes’ loss was a close one, and because current #25 Oklahoma should serve as a “floor” because the ‘Canes beat the Sooners, I’m betting Miami will stay just ahead of ND, so the Irish will be #23 in the AP poll.

The coaches’ poll is the same basic deal, though the Irish might be #24 or #25 there, behind Ole Miss and perhaps Central Michigan or somebody like that. The Irish should likewise be ranked in the #23-25 range in the Harris poll. I won’t hazard a guess as to whether they’ll be in the BCS, because I don’t want to analyze the various computer rankings. But ND will certainly be in that Top 25 soon, if not this week, provided they keep winning.

In any case, my full AP poll prediction is after the jump.

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Don’t laugh. Yes, I know the Irish are unranked — or more precisely, if one looks at their “others receiving votes” placement, they’re effectively ranked #26 in the AP poll, #28 in the Harris poll, and #30 in the coaches’ poll. Yes, I know the remainder of their schedule is against largely unheralded teams. Yes, I know ND is #34 in Jerry Palm’s unofficial BCS standings, or #32 if you do the math a little differently. Admittedly, that’s a long way from #14.

But mark my words: if Notre Dame wins six straight games, the Irish will rise, albeit largely by attrition, into the Top 14, thus making them eligible for — and, because this is Notre Dame we’re talking about, virtually guaranteed of — an invitation to a BCS bowl.

Don’t believe me? Believe Jerry Palm. Or better yet, take a look at history.

Going back over the last seven seasons, from 2002 through 2008, the only two-loss teams that have finished outside of the Top 14 in the final BCS standings have been either: (1) mid-majors like BYU and Boise State or (2) teams that suffered a November or December loss. Nationally prominent two-loss teams on multi-game winning streaks are not ranked below #14 at season’s end. It just doesn’t happen.

There’s one exception, sorta kinda, which I’ll discuss after the jump. But, suffice it to say, it would be totally unprecedented for a team as high-profile as Notre Dame to finish its season on a six-game winning streak, end up with a 10-2 record, yet be ranked so low that they’re ineligible for BCS consideration. It’s never happened before, at least as far back as 2002, and I see no reason to believe it will happen this year.

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Much like four years ago, I’m proud of both of my alma maters’ football teams tonight. Yes, USC committed some stupid penalties, and should have put the Irish away sooner, but ultimately, they made enough plays to win a very tough game on the road, and that counts for a lot. As for Notre Dame, they played with heart and determination, and proved that previous weeks’ late-game heroics weren’t attributable solely to the level of competition. These guys can play with the best.

For Irish fans — those who root for the Irish every week, that is — the end result must be agonizing. Indeed, I even feel a little tiny piece of that agony myself. I was rooting for USC, of course, and I’m glad they won, but at the same time, quite honestly, some part of my heart was cheering for the Irish to come back, to wake up the echoes, to make the home crowd go wild. In the fourth quarter of tonight’s game, for the first time since becoming an Irish Trojan, I actually felt truly, genuinely conflicted.

Ultimately, I’m glad Clausen didn’t complete any of those three passes in the final 9 seconds. (By the way: what was he thinking with that final pass?) But I’d dearly like to see the Irish re-establish themselves as a national power, once and for all, as they almost did four years ago, and as they again almost did tonight. It’s a cruelty of my dual loyalties that I always seem to end up rooting against the Irish on such nights.

In any event, hopefully Notre Dame wins out and goes 10-2, and hopefully that’s enough to get the Irish into the BCS Top 14 by season’s end. (Normally a top 14 ranking would be a foregone conclusion for 10-2 Irish team, but the pollsters have been skeptical of ND’s merits this year; despite the close call against the Trojans, they’ll presumably be unranked next week.) And then hopefully they win their big bowl game, be it a BCS game or the Gator Bowl.

As for USC: Virginia Tech giving up its spot in the pecking order is great news, but Texas’s win over Oklahoma is very bad news. The SEC vs. Big 12 scenario looks likelier than ever, even if the Longhorns lose a game but win the division and the conference (as they now likely would). It might take a team from the North pulling a Big 12 title-game upset to prevent a BCS championship game matchup of Texas vs. the SEC champ (unless the SEC somehow implodes and produces a two-loss champion). Oh, and Iowa still needs to lose, but is running out of realistic opportunities in which to do so; and it would be nice if Miami and Cincinnati lose, too.

Still, upsets can and will happen, so the Trojans’ BCS hopes are yet alive. The more important thing is, USC needs to keep taking care of business. They’re 2-0 so far in the five-game stretch that I feared would derail their season: @Cal, @ND, vs. Oregon State, @Oregon, @ASU. They get Stanford at home after that gauntlet, followed by another bye week, and then they finish with home games against UCLA and Arizona. The Trojans are halfway home, but there are plenty of potential bumps in the road still to come.

Anyway… Fight On! Beat the Beavers!

And… Goooo Irish, Beeeeat Eagles Fredo!

With 24 hours till kickoff, l thought a stroll down memory lane might be in order…

2002: 44-13

2003: 45-14

2004: 41-10

2005: 34-31

2006: 44-24

2007: 38-0

2008: 38-3

2009: ???

FIGHT ON, TROJANS!! BEAT THE IRISH!!

Previous October 15 anniversary posts here and here.

BEAT! THE IRISH!

Looking at this week’s college football schedule, there are, needless to say, some fairly huge games. There’s the small matter of the Brendan Loy Game of the Year between #6 USC and #25 Notre Dame, of course. But there’s a heckuva lot beyond that, too.

Things actually get started tonight with Boise State at Tulsa, and ramp up further tomorrow with a battle of the Big East’s remaining unbeatens, Cincinnati at South Florida. I’m not sure what’s the preferred outcome of that game for fans of other BCS contenders, like USC. #8 Cincy seems like more of a BCS threat because they’re ranked higher right now, but #21 South Florida would jump up the polls quickly with a win, and they’ve got a November 28 date with Miami that could help them do some last-minute “leapfrogging” of one-loss teams, if they stay unbeaten. So really, root for whomever, then root for the winner to lose in a subsequent game. As for Boise State, root against them, I guess, just to keep things from getting messy — though really, I don’t think they finish ahead of one-loss USC no matter what. (Whether that’s just or unjust is another post for another day.)

On Saturday, the BCS-dictated rooting interests for USC fans are more clear-cut. To wit:

Oklahoma vs. Texas, 10am MDT: This is the second-biggest game of the day for USC fans (the biggest being, obviously, the one in South Bend). With a win here, Texas looks to have relatively smooth sailing toward an undefeated season, particularly in light of the Dez Bryant situation at Okie State. Lose, on the other hand, and Texas no longer even controls its own destiny in the Big 12 South; the Longhorns would be forced to root for Oklahoma to lose at least once, maybe twice. USC fans would then become, for the rest of the season, the biggest OU fans this side of Norman, since the two-loss Sooners would have the power to prevent one-loss Texas from going to the Big 12 title game — again! — simply by winning out. I don’t see either a two-loss Oklahoma or a one-loss non-division-champion Texas from edging out one-loss Pac-10 champion USC in the BCS standings. But first, Oklahoma needs to win on Saturday. GO SOONERS.

Iowa at Wisconsin, 10am MDT: Third-biggest game of the day for Trojan fans. The Hawkeyes are undefeated and therefore need to lose, and this is one of just two remaining games on their schedule where a defeat looks like a reasonable bet. GO BADGERS.

USC at Notre Dame, 1:30pm MDT: Um, yeah, FIGHT ON TROJANS, BEAT THE IRISH. Duh.

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Just as I thought was likely to occur when I looked at the polls two weeks ago, Notre Dame has benefited from the latest round of ranked teams falling, and is now ranked in both polls — #25, to be exact — heading into next week’s showdown with #5/6 USC (who somehow managed to leapfrog Boise State in the coaches poll, and gain significant ground on the Broncos in the AP poll, during a week when both teams were idle… go figure).

If Notre Dame beats USC, they’ll jump to something like #12 in both polls, and we’ll suddenly hear longshot national championship talk. If they lose, they won’t be heard from again in the rankings for the rest of the season, or at least until maybe late November, if they still have two losses at that point. The Trojans are presently listed as 10 1/2 point favorites, which sounds about right.

Fight on, Trojans! Beat the Irish!

Over at the Orange County Register’s USC football blog, Scott Reid writes that the “Bush Push Era” is officially over, after Notre Dame scored a crucial two-point conversion — ultimately preserving overtime, and allowing them to beat Washington — on a four-yard, uncalled “assisting the runner” penalty:

As you recall (and the Whining Irish certainly won’t let you forget) top-ranked USC escaped South Bend with a 34-31 victory on October 15, 2005 after Trojan tailback Reggie Bush pushed quarterback Matt Leinart into the end zone from a yard-out for the game-winning touchdown.

The Whining Irish immediately screamed foul, claiming that the Bush Push should have resulted in a five-yard penalty.

According to NCAA rules “the runner shall not grasp a teammate; and no other player of his team shall grasp, push, lift or charge into him to assist him in forward progress.” The rule, however, is rarely enforced, a point the Whining Irish forget to mention.

Whether or not God’s Team was robbed officially became a moot point on Saturday when seemingly everybody wearing blue and gold with the possible exception of Charlie Weis (bad knee, remember) pushed, shoved and ultimately rolled Robert Hughes into the end zone for a fourth quarter two-point conversion in the Whining Irish’s 37-30 overtime victory against Washington.

So it’s official: the Whining Irish have lost any right to pout about the Bush Push.

Heh.

Personally, my immediate reaction to the “Hughes Push” was that it was the most impressive thing I’ve seen the Notre Dame offensive line do in several years. The similarity to the Bush Push didn’t occur to me until hours later. But, now that it’s come to my attention, I’m terribly amused. Bwahahahaha.

Anyway, needless to say, the refs did the right thing by not making the call. Just like on October 15, 2005. :)

Fight On, Trojans! Beat the Irish!

P.S. Although it’s “Hate Week” — or “Hate Fortnight,” in this case — I, as an Irish alum as well as a Trojan alum, don’t endorse Reid’s use of the phrase “Whining Irish.” (Though there certainly has been a fair bit of whining about this particular issue. But I can’t condone its use as a general descriptor.)

I do, however, condone and endorse this tweet by Michael Walsh: “I now humbly request that all Notre Dame fans forever more kindly please STFU about the ‘Bush Push’. Fair enough?”

P.P.S. You can see the play in the video below. Fast forward to the 7-minute mark.

…if USC has rediscovered its mojo, or if Cal is just this bad. 20-0 at halftime.

Fight On! Beat the Bears! And then… well… I won’t say anything about what comes next, yet.

P.S. Way to go, Irish!

(Because, for the next 60 to 90 minutes or so, I’m still a Notre Dame fan.)

P.P.S. Hahahahaha, UCLA lost!

We’re two quarters away from the Brendan Loy version of a Perfect Day. Let’s finish it, Trojans!

From the “blatantly and unwisely looking ahead” files… after tomorrow’s games against Cal and Washington, respectively, USC and Notre Dame both have bye weeks before their October 17 clash in South Bend. This got me thinking: if the Trojans and Irish both win tomorrow, could ND earn a spot in the Top 25 in time to turn their rivalry game with ‘SC into a battle of ranked teams, thus cueing the hype machine, waking up the echoes and so forth?

To answer the question, you’ve got to look at the teams currently ranked ahead of the Irish in the polls, specifically the AP poll, which is the one that’s more widely used in the media when talking about upcoming games. For simplicity’s sake, I’m going to assume that the Top 13 — i.e., the top-tier unbeatens* plus Virginia Tech, USC, Oklahoma and Ohio State — will stay in the Top 25 even with a single loss in the next two weeks. Likewise, I’m assuming that anyone ranked #14-25 is liable to drop out of the rankings with a loss. These are crude assumptions, but I suspect they’re mostly correct.

So… who might lose, and tumble out of the polls, making way for the Irish?

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In the immediate aftermath of Notre Dame’s dramatic win over Purdue on Saturday, I tweeted, “And Purdue saves Charlie Weis’s job by calling a terrible timeout that probably cost them the game. Irish win!” Stewart Mandel expands on this thought:

If Notre Dame, now 3-1, winds up reaching the BCS promised land, affording Charlie Weis many more years of his $4 million salary, he should personally cut a check to his Purdue counterpart, who committed one of the all-time clock management blunders Saturday night.

With the Boilers leading 21-17, 37 seconds remaining and Notre Dame out of timeouts, Irish running back Robert Hughes was stopped at the Purdue two-yard line on second-and-goal. Weis was fully planning to have quarterback Jimmy Clausen spike the ball to stop the clock — but [Purdue coach Danny] Hope did it for them. He called time out, preserving third down for the Irish.

“That helped us out a little bit right there,” Weis said.

You think? Following an incompletion, Clausen hit tight end Kyle Rudolph on fourth-and-goal for the game-winning score. Season saved, crisis averted.

“I just wanted to have enough time to run a couple of plays [after Notre Dame scored],” said Hope, apparently not a huge believer in his defense. “If I looked at the situation again maybe it wasn’t a great idea.”

Indeed not. But the result was great for the Irish. And if it leads to even greater things — well, it wouldn’t be the first time in recent years that an opposing team’s poor coaching saved Notre Dame’s season and propelled Weis & co. to a BCS bowl.

Remember the monsoon game at Michigan State in 2006? If John L. Smith & co. don’t “ask Drew Stanton to run the option in Hurricane Katrina,” Notre Dame doesn’t win that game, doesn’t arrive at the Coliseum 10-1 (with an obviously, predictably inflated #6 ranking), and doesn’t finish 10-2 and earn a Sugar Bowl berth even after the ritual drubbing by USC.

Indeed, to put it even more starkly: if Slappy wasn’t such a bad coach, Charlie Weis wouldn’t have that all-important “took the Irish to two BCS bowls” line on his resumé as a counterweight to the immense crappiness of the 2007 and 2008 seasons, and therefore might conceivably not have a job right now.

Here’s hoping Purdue’s blunder proves as significant to ND’s fortunes as Michigan State’s did. GO IRISH! BEAT HUSKIES! (And then LOSE TO TROJANS! And then WIN ALL THE REST OF YOUR GAMES! But let’s just beat the Huskies, and then we’ll get to all that in due course…)