As you’ll undoubtedly notice, I’ve made some major blog layout changes. I’m not in love with the return of the three-column layout, but I’ve concluded it’s a necessary evil, so that I can keep tweets on the homepage — thus keeping the site fresh when I’m not blogging much — while preventing them from overrunning the main body of the blog, as has been happening with increasing frequency. Bonus: this will help facilitate the auto-importing of Becky’s tweets — coming soon! [UPDATE: Becky auto tweet import now up & running!]

The whole direct tweet-to-blog thing has always been an uneasy and imperfect arrangement, all the moreso as I’ve become a more prolific tweeter. I find that concerns about an overrun homepage constantly affect both the way I tweet (there have been way too many tweets lately containing the characters *# — that prevents them from posting to the blog) and the way I blog. So I want to try something different. And I think I have the leeway to do so, since I see from my stats that 1024×768 is pretty much the minimum screen resolution of my blog audience, so expanding the page width from 835px to 985px hopefully won’t pose too much of a problem.

Anyway. bottom line, all of my tweets (and soon, Becky’s) will appear in the sidebar at right. A handful of selected tweets will occasionally appear in the main body of the blog, when I choose to emphasize them, along with FriendFeed links. (There’s more there right now than there will usually be, because we’re in a transitional phase.)

I’ll have more to say later, probably. For now, I’m still doing a lot of tinkering — this is definitely a work in progress. As always, comments and suggestions are welcome.

Heh.

Guest post by David K.

Clearly, based on the picture below, taken at Pac-10 media day, we can see how the new divisons are going to shake out (with Colorado and Utah split between the two):

Division A: Arizona, ASU, Cal, Oregon, Oregon State
Division B: Stanford, UCLA, USC, Washington, Washington State

What do you mean, it’s insane to base my conclusions on this completely out-of-context picture? What do you mean, those divisions make absolutely no sense whatsoever? This is a blog on the internet! What else is it for, but drawing baseless conclusions by taking things out of context that make no sense?!?

UPDATE BY BRENDAN: Alternate theory: the teams are listed in alphabetical order. :) Heh.

Guest post by David K.

An article in the Denver Post today mentions comments from Big 12 Commissioner Dan Beebe indicating that Colorado will depart after this year and join the Pac-10 in 2011 rather than 2012. I’ve gotta admit, the Pac-12 starting in 2012 had a nice symmetry to it, but it’s probably better for all involved that it happen sooner rather than later.

Here is a collection of several video clips (taken with an iPhone 4 wedged against the windshield) of our drive Saturday up and down the white-knuckle Mount Evans Road, which climbs to 14,130 feet. The “soundtrack” is the music that we were playing on our car stereo, mostly an assortment of patriotic songs (with a dash of Billy Joel thrown in), all at Loyette’s request. :) You can also hear Loyette and Loyacita in the background, as well as a few bits of commentary by Becky (driving) and me (passenging). Anyway:

The video is HD, so it should look quite good if blown up to full screen, though you may need to manually change the “360p” to “720p.”

P.S. We live here. :)

Slowed down to 300x actual speed:

More here and here.

Gregory Mankiw makes an analogy:

To understand the challenge government economists have faced over the past year and a half, it is useful to imagine the case of a physician trying to treat an ill patient. The patient presents herself in terrible shape; the physician has never treated a condition with symptoms quite like hers before; and the causes of the ailments are unclear. The doctor remembers reading about a similar case in medical school — and, trying to recall as much of his training as possible, he endeavors to come up with a theory as to why the patient is sick and to determine what will make her better.

In an ideal world, the doctor would run a controlled experiment: He would assemble 100 patients with similar symptoms, give 50 of them the medicine that seems most likely to work and the other 50 a placebo, and then see whether the patients on the medicine in fact improved. But the doctor does not have 100 patients — he has only one. So, based on his assessment of what is causing the patient’s troubles, and the most likely remedy, he takes a risk and administers the medicine.

The patient, however, returns a few weeks later; this time, her symptoms are worse. What, then, should the doctor conclude? He might decide that he gave the patient the wrong medicine. Or he might determine that the patient was even sicker than he originally thought, and thus that the medicine should be administered at an even higher dosage. Either conclusion is plausible, but there is no way the doctor can be sure. What he does know is that he must act before the situation gets even worse.

And there is no such thing as a “cautious” approach. Whether you up the dose, change the medicine, or conclude that the medicine itself is the problem and turn off the IV altogether, you’re selecting a course of action based on certain specific assumptions, and incurring enormous risk if those assumptions are wrong. The distinction between “action” and “inaction” is artificial in this circumstance. Whatever you decide to do, or not do, that decision carries huge risks and huge consequences. Yet it’s impossible to know with certainty which decision is the correct one. So: good luck with that! #PANIC

Anyway, read the whole thing. (Hat tip: Andrew Sullivan.)

It seems like, every time I go running, I see something beautiful in the sky. Last night, it was the rising Full Buck Moon, sitting right smack in the middle of the Earth’s shadow — or as I like to (inaccurately) call it, the “anti-horizon” — low in the eastern sky.

The view in the western sky wasn’t bad, either.

Continue reading »

On Saturday, Becky and the girls and I had a fun day-trip adventure in the mountains, visiting St. Mary’s Glacier and Echo Lake and then heading up Mount Evans, the only “14er” that you can drive to (almost) the top of — on the highest paved road in North America. If you can’t tell from the above shot, it feels a bit like you’re driving on the edge of the world, with no guardrail.

The views are well worth it, though:

(Wider version.) Also: there are goats!

And, of course, there’s a gorgeous view at the top:

(Loyette isn’t scared of heights; she was just tired and grumpy and didn’t want to take a picture. Heh.)

On the way down, a cloud descended. Here’s a shot of cars exiting the cloud:

Oh, and that glacier I mentioned? Here you go. Note the unnecessary quotation marks on the sign:

(UPDATE: I’m not the first to notice those quotation marks! Heh.)

Last but not least, a panorama of Becky and Loyette walking along the shore of Echo Lake — coming soon to a Living Room Times masthead near you! (Wider version.)

Remember those anticrepuscular cloud shadows that I posted a picture of the other day? Well, while out running this evening, I saw some more — and also the accompanying crepuscular cloud shadows on the western horizon. Behold, both sides (west and east) of the same sky-wide pillars of shadow:

A few minutes later, the view on the western side became even more striking:

After the jump, a few more pictures.

Continue reading »

I had never seen this before, but stumbled on it today via YouTube. It’s USC at Oregon, January 7th, 1999, and it’s pretty freakin’ sweet. The action starts at around the 1-minute mark of the clip.

Here’s a contemporaneous news article about the game. And here’s a 2008 interview with the Trojan hero that night, Adam Spanich.

Here’s a 20-minute video, compressed to 48 seconds, of that rainbow I photographed yesterday, slowly moving to the right (as the clouds move to the left) and then eventually disappearing. In the early part of the clip, there’s also a hint of a second rainbow, off to the right of the main rainbow. Anyway…

A rainbow, framed by a church:

It was right over the church earlier, but got more spectacular as it inched away — though not nearly as spectacular as another well-framed rainbow that long-time readers might remember.

Guest post by David K.

ESPN.com’s Pac-10 blogger Ted Miller has been having some fun with some best case/worst case scenarios for each of the confernence teams in his blog recently, but today’s take on Oregon was the most hilarious by far, finishing with this gem for their worst case scenario:

Oregon loses the Las Vegas Bowl to Utah and finishes 8-5.

Phil Knight converts to Buddhism, gives his fortune to the United Way and moves to Tibet. Chip Kelly goes with him.

Tyrone Willingham comes out of retirement to become the Ducks head coach.

Here’s the other eight he has finished so far, USC is still to come and will probably be the most entertaining read of all!

Arizona
Arizona State
Cal
Oregon State
Stanford
UCLA
Washington
Washington State

I blogged over at Sullivan’s Travelers about newly designated Tropical Depression Three, which has just formed over the Bahamas. It’s likely to become Tropical Storm Bonnie, and to move through the Florida Straits and into the Gulf of Mexico. That expected track virtually guarantees that this storm will get a whole lot of media attention, far more than your average weak-ish tropical cyclone that probably won’t ever attain hurricane status, because, well…

That’s right: proto-Bonnie is forecast to pass pretty much directly over, or at least very close to, the Deepwater Horizon oil spill zone in the central Gulf. BP’s efforts to permanently stop the spill are already shutting down, and there will be much fevered speculation in the media about the storm’s potential direct impact on the existing oil slick.

Thankfully, this speculation is likely to be overblown. If the current intensity forecast (or anything close to it) holds, T.D. 3 will probably do little more than delay BP’s efforts for a few days. The prospect of a massive storm surge bring waves of oil-stained waters miles inland is just not looking realistic with this storm. The Houston Chronicle’s Eric Berger explains:

The big question is how strong the depression will become. It bears repeating that none of the intensity models, unreliable though they may be, show substantial strengthening of this system as it enters the Gulf of Mexico.

In its forecast the National Hurricane Center’s best guess is that it will attain a maximum wind speed of 50 mph, which would make it a moderately strong tropical storm. Such a storm would certainly impair ongoing efforts to mitigate the oil spill, but it would not have a large surge to drive oil inland.

The current forecast track brings the depression across the central Gulf of Mexico, right across the center of the spill. If the depression does unexpectedly strengthen into a reasonably large hurricane and develops a surge, the oil would likely be pushed inland toward the southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama coasts, which have already borne the brunt of the spill effects.

So let’s hope the models are right and environmental conditions remain such that the depression remains relatively weak.

We’ll learn more about T.D. Three/proto-Bonnie as the day progresses. Both the intensity and track forecasts are in their early iterations now; a reconnaissance aircraft is on its way to investigate, and will provide invaluable information about the storm’s current status, and hopefully insight into its future. But at present, there’s no reason to really fear this storm. It is a big freakin’ nuisance, of course. But things could be a lot worse. The Gulf of Mexico is very capable of producing monster hurricanes at this time of year, and with the oil slick sitting in the middle of Hurricane Alley, there has been every reason to be concerned about that prospect, even moreso than usual. So if a piddling little tropical storm is the worst that June and July end up giving us, we should count ourselves lucky. And then perhaps say a few prayers about August and September. *knock on wood*

P.S. Dr. Jeff Masters has some general background information on a hurricane’s potential impact on the oil spill, and vice versa.

Today’s letter from USC’s new president, C. L. Max Nikias, announcing the long-overdue, uh, retirement of Mike Garrett as Trojan athletic director (and heaping praise on him while kicking him to the curb), also contains this gem in the third-to-last paragraph:

The Trojan family honors and respects the USC sporting careers of those persons whose actions did not compromise their athletic program or the opportunities of future USC student-athletes. Accordingly, I have instructed the senior vice president for administration to remove athletic jerseys and murals displayed in recognition of O.J. Mayo and Reggie Bush by mid-August — before the incoming class of students moves on campus — from Heritage Hall, the Galen Center and the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. The university also will return Mr. Bush’s 2005 Heisman Trophy to the Heisman Trophy Trust in August.

Ouch. For Reggie, who has maintained that he did nothing wrong and he loves USC, that’s gotta sting.

Meanwhile, some Trojans on Twitter are expressing shock and disapproval of the administration’s disassociation with Bush. To which I replied in a series of tweets:

Trojans who think USC is wrong to disassociate from Bush need a reality check. Agree or disagree with sanctions and “institutional control” finding, it’s clear Reggie broke the rules. To the let that slide, now that it’s known what happened, is to declare yourself an outlaw program. I loved watching Reggie Bush play as much as the next USC fan, and nobody can take those great memories away from me. But he also f***ed us.

I’ll probably never see a finer performance by an athlete, in person, than the shows I had the privilege of watching Bush put on against Notre Dame and Fresno State in 2005. I’ll never be able to hate Reggie Bush, even if maybe I should. The memories are too awesome. But at the same time, under the rules that govern all NCAA competition, he cheated. Maybe those rules should be changed, maybe they’re enforced selectively, blah blah blah, but the rules are the rules, and he blatantly broke them. He cheated. And so, unless we Trojans are a bunch of cheaters, we really can’t continue to honor him. Period.

Reverse sun rays on the eastern horizon at sunset:

P.S. The technical term is anticrepuscular rays. Or, in this case, anticrepuscular shadows, I guess.

Guest post by David K.

Today’s XKCD reminds us that the biggest rip off is not texting fees, baggage fees, or even the price of gasoline. It’s graphing calculators:

Guest post by David K.

Bob Condotta’s Husky Blog for the Seattle Times continues to be a great source of information on Pac-12 expansion. He was the one who posted the link to updated information on the possibility of the zipper expansion that led to my post earlier in the week. Earlier today he posted another link to an article by fellow Seattle Times writer Bud Withers about TV revenue sharing in the Pac-10.

Turns out, contrary to what I had believed before, the Pac-10 doesn’t do full revenue sharing from the money that individual TV games pull in. The teams involved in the game keep 55%, with the rest being split 45% to all 10 teams (meaning the teams in a league game get 32% each, while each other team gets 4.5%).

While this has been an issue in the past, it hasn’t been as bad because all schools played at least some games in the high media markets in California. With divisional splits on the table, however, this raises a big roadblock. Splitting certain schools out of the L.A. media market, in particular, would be a major hit to those programs financially. It’s no wonder the rest of the conference is so keen on seeing the California schools remain in their division (that, along with recruiting exposure, is why a split that puts the NW and new schools in a north division is dead on arrival).

The change in conference membership is setting the stage for some changes, however. In the past, the L.A. schools along with Washington have been against a change in the revenue sharing agreement, and since it takes a 75 percent supermajority — i.e., an 8-2 vote — to change the financial policies, things pretty much stayed as they were. With two new members joining the conference, however, the vote needed split to change policy shifts to 9-3, so even if the Huskies stuck with the Trojans and Bruins, it wouldn’t be enough. Moreover, on top of the change in numbers, there has been change in the air at Washington as well. A decade of struggle and a new athletic director who favors equal revenue sharing means the L.A. schools would have to get not one, but TWO votes from other schools to keep the old deal in place.

The other interesting piece of the puzzle is that (hopefully soon to be former) USC athletic director Mike Garrett has previously threatened to leave the conference completely if the revenue deals were changed. But just as Washington’s fortunes fell in the past decade, the Trojans are facing tough times of their own, and may not have the clout they used to have, especially with lame-duck Garrett, so his threats are likely empty now.

So what does this all mean? No one but the AD’s know for sure, but my guess is that the Pac-10 will move to an equal revenue sharing system (hey, it works for the SEC and Big Ten), and in return for this, the California schools will be allowed to continue to play each other annually. So how does that work for the rest of the schools in the conference? I think it’s even more likely that we’ll see a Zipper divisional setup with pod scheduling, as was discussed in the previous post’s comment section.

Guest post by David K.

Jon Wilner of the San Jose Mercury News has a new blog post with updates on the Pac-10/Pac-12 realignment and other conference issues. Particularly interesting are the following:

The “zipper” plan is gaining traction thanks to a number of factors, including:
- The Northwest schools’ reluctance to give up games in the L.A. area
- The California schools’ desire to stay together
- Not mentioned but likely obvious is the desire of the mountain schools to be included with the L.A. schools as well.

The zipper would basically provide the solution that is the least bad to the most people. Not anyone’s ideal, but not screwing any particular set of schools enough to make it unacceptable.

One variation on the previously discussed zipper would be a partial zipper that only splits the California schools. UCLA and Cal with the Northwest schools, USC and Stanford with the Mountain schools.

I still think the most likely outcomes are either a pure zipper (UW, UO, Cal, UCLA, UA, Utah vs. WSU, OSU, Stanford, USC, ASU, Col) or a north-south alignment that splits the California schools. A north/south split that groups the NW schools and the two new schools is going to be dead on arrival because you will get overwhelming disapproval from that entire grouping.

In conclusion, we can all blame this on Texas for screwing up the Pac-16 plan, which would have avoided the whole issue completely. Curse you, Bevo!

[Bumped. -ed.]