Before I post the latest track forecast, it’s important to emphasize that Hurricane Earl is not a point on the map, but a broad storm system with a geographically large wind field. The exact course of the eye is important, especially for storm surge purposes, because the strongest winds and most damaging surge — especially when it reaches New England, by which point its forward speed will be accelerating, even as its rotational winds decrease — will be in the storm’s right-front quadrant. Thus, if the eye remains offshore, even by a few dozen miles, things will be much better than if the eye makes a direct hit, thus bringing that maximum surge onto the coastline immediately to the east of the landfall point. However, having said that, there will be plenty of rough weather on shore regardless of the storm’s exact track, because the wind field is large, and possibly about to get larger:

THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE STRUCTURE OF EARL DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER..MICROWAVE INAGERY SUGGEST THAT AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT COULD OCCUR SOON…IN WHICH CASE THE WIND FIELD WOULD BECOME LARGER.

Earl has very likely peaked in intensity at 140 mph, and will probably begin a slow, steady weakening with the next full advisory at 5pm EDT. The eyewall replacement cycle will kick off this trend, and by the time the cycle is complete and the storm would be ready to re-tighten again, shear will have increased further, and then the waters will get cooler. So Earl is officially on the decline. But no one ever expected this storm to make landfall as a Category 4, so that’s not too surprising. The potential widening of the wind field could be a bigger deal, increasing the storm’s impact in North Carolina and especially in New England and the Maritimes, since the eventual start of an extratropical transition as it accelerates north is likely to make that widened wind field even wider. This is going to a big storm — not catastrophic, but widely felt over a broad area.

Anyway, here’s the latest forecast track:

Watches and Warnings, as you can see, now stretch all the way from Cape Fear to Nova Scotia. (Red is Hurricane Warning, Pink is Hurricane Watch, Blue is Tropical Storm Warning, and Yellow is Tropical Storm Watch.) I’m not sure why the land on either side of the Bay of Fundy isn’t covered yet — I’m guessing they’ll be added in the next advisory. Timing of landfall will be very important there, as Fundy has the highest tides in the world, so a landfall at high tide would be quite something.

Earl is now officially moving due north (well, almost — 355 degrees), so the first part of its “turn” has happened on schedule. Next, it is expected to turn to the NNE in the wee hours of tomorrow morning, mere hours before making its closest approach to Hatteras. From its current position, if it were to keep moving at 355 degrees or so, give or take a wobble, it could make a direct hit on the Outer Banks. But that’s not expected to happen.

Watch for that turn to the NNE overnight tonight, in the hours before landfall. If it doesn’t happen, things will be much worse in North Carolina than we’re expecting, and although there’s no particular reason to believe the turn won’t happen — the computer models have handled this storm pretty well — it’ll be far too late to adjust preparations or evacuation plans if the forecasts turn out to be wrong. North Carolinians should be making final preparations to protect life and property now, and doing so on the basis of a direct hit tomorrow morning, even though that’s not the most likely scenario. If you’re in this storm’s path, batten down the hatches — or, if the local officials tell you to evacuate: Do it! Get the Hell out!

P.S. Dr. Jeff Masters has an excellent post rounding up the potential impacts, including:

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It looks like Jim Cantore may have picked the wrong Cape. The official NHC forecast now calls for Hurricane Earl to pass closer to Cape Cod and the Islands than to Cape Hatteras and the Outer Banks, thanks to a gradual leftward shift over the last several advisories, and most recently, an overnight lurch in the computer models:

AFTER 48 HR…THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT DUE TO CHANGES IN THE INTERACTION OF EARL WITH A STRONG WESTERLY TROUGH DURING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE 48-72 HR TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE LEFT…BUT STILL LIES ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

The storm is forecast to be just off the Cape at 48 hours, so actually, the primary effect of the overnight model shift is that, after swiping (or hitting) Cape Cod, Earl is now expected to make landfall near the Maine-New Brunswick border, instead of in Nova Scotia — and if “guidance envelope” stays as it is now, the forecast can be expected to shift further west and call for a landfall in Maine.

In the spirit of my post last year on opening day, I’ve tweeted some #fearlesspredictions for the college football season ahead. For now, you can view them in the sidebar at right. For posterity, I’ll also copy & paste them after the jump.

P.S. But first, courtesy of @jadaily, a song for the occasion:

It’s the most wonderful time of the year.
With the quarterbacks throwing, the running backs going;
Yes, football is here: It’s the most wonderful time of the year!
It’s the hap, happiest season of all.
With coaches who lose it, and fans who yell “Bulls**t!” when refs blow a call
It’s the hap, happiest season of all.
There’ll be corners and safeties, and linebackers racing, and linemen refusing to yield.
There’ll be marching bands playing, and cheerleaders swaying, and dancing teams out on the field.
It’s the most wonderful time of the year.
With the tailgating parties, and halftime shows starting, yes, football is here:
It’s the most wonderful time of the year!

Now, on with the predictions…

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Hurricane Earl is back up to Category 4 intensity, with 135 mph winds. Not much change to the forecast reasoning — the worst weather is likely to remain offshore — but that right turn needs to begin soon (like, tonight). Watches and warnings now extend from Cape Fear, North Carolina all the way to almost the Massachusetts-New Hampshire border.

Meanwhile, trailing behind Earl, we now officially have two cartoon-character-named storms in the Atlantic: Tropical Storms Fiona and Gaston.

Did I speak too soon? The computer model forecast tracks for Hurricane Earl, which had been trending east (and away from a New England threat), trended ever-so-slightly back west overnight. That “crucial 40° N 70° W marker” I mentioned? It’s now in the crosshairs of the official NHC track and the model consensus. And get a load of the GFNI:

Granted, the GFNI isn’t one of the major computer models, and it’s clearly a western outlier, just as the BAMM and BAMS are eastern outliers. (And, FWIW, even the GFNI’s prediction still isn’t the NYC nightmare scenario — wrong angle of approach, wrong side of the eyewall.) [UPDATE: Meteorologist and weatherblogger Charles Fenwick provides additional insight into why we shouldn't pay much attention to any of the "outliers" in this case. Excluding them, the model consensus is really quite tight. Fenwick says, "Given that the turn point is only 48 hours out and the model forecasts were enhanced with upper-air observations from the Gulfstream IV, the prognosis should be in good shape."]

Regardless, it’s clear that New England — particularly Cape Cod and the Islands — aren’t “out of the woods” yet, as they say. And the North Carolina Outer Banks remain very much at risk. The reality is, this storm needs to make a series of “turns” over the next several days — from NW to NNW, from NNW to N, from N to NNE — and until we see those turns actually happen, we can’t be certain of where it will end up. Small wobbles, or minor changes in turns’ timing, can have big consequences down the road. Bob (The Usual Suspect) got it right in comments yesterday:

From my on-site experience, I know that major storms can be exhilarating and devastating, but most of all, they’re often unpredictable. Anybody who COULD be in the path of a storm 48 hours away, best to get prepared.

The models are models. The storm is existential.

Indeed. Keep a weather eye on the forecasts, and if you’re in the cone of uncertainty, assume you’ll be dealing with a landfalling hurricane — by Friday morning in North Carolina’s case, by Friday night in New England’s case — and make preparations accordingly, even if the odds are that Earl’s heaviest weather will remain out at sea.

Hurricane Warnings are likely to be posted for the Outer Banks in a few minutes. If you’re there, take them seriously.

P.S. Meanwhile, our tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic, “98L,” now has an 80% chance of becoming T.D. 9 or Tropical Storm Gaston in the next 48 hours.

UPDATE: Here’s what the 11:00 AM EDT discussion has to say about Earl’s expected turns:

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN STEERING EARL TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS ALREADY SHIFTING EASTWARD…AND LATER TODAY…EARL SHOULD BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE TURNING GRADUALLY NORTHWARD. IN 36 HOURS OR SO…THE HURRICANE WILL ENCOUNTER THE BASE OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND SHOULD BEGIN TO RECURVE OR TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS THE SOLUTION UNANIMOUSLY PROVIDED BY TRACK MODELS…WHICH HAVE EARL PASSING TO THE EAST BUT NOT FAR FROM THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA BETWEEN 36 AND 48 HOURS. ONLY A SMALL WESTWARD DEVIATION TO THE TRACK TO THE WEST WOULD BRING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE TO THE COAST.

GIVEN THE FORECAST TRACK AND THE LARGE WIND RADII ASSOCIATED WITH A EARL…A HURRICANE WARNING WAS REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.

Specifically, a Hurricane Warning is up from Bogue Inlet, NC to the NC/VA border (including Pamlico and Albemarle sounds). Southward from Bogue Inlet to Cape Fear, NC, there’s a Tropical Storm Warning, and northward from the NC/VA border to Cape Henlopen, Delaware, there’s a Hurricane Watch.

P.P.S. Oh… and T.D. 9 has officially formed. The forecast track implies that we could be talking about it for a while. (Though the forecast is very uncertain, as some of the computer models do not even acknowledge yet that the depression exists.)

[Cross-posted from Sullivan's Travelers.]

[Cross-posted from Sullivan's Travellers.]

The Weather Channel’s harbinger of hurricane-related doom, Jim Cantore, has changed his travel plans, and will be greeting Hurricane Earl from Cape Hatteras instead of Cape Cod. The latest computer model map illustrates why:

The models now universally call for Earl to take a pronounced right turn between 30° N and 40° N; there is no longer even a single reputable model predicting a landfall in New England, or even getting closer than a hundred miles away from Cape Cod and the Islands. All of the models have Earl’s track staying to the “right” of the crucial 40° N 70° W marker.

Hatteras doesn’t look likely to get a direct hit, either, but it’s more likely than Cape Cod, and anyway there’s a decent chance it will be close enough to experience some rough weather. So unless Cantore wants to travel to fair Nova Scotia, the Outer Banks are his best bet for raincoat-blowing-in-the-wind infotainment. (That said, if Earl follows the models that predict a sharper and quicker right turn, Cantore will end up broadcasting live footage of large waves under partly cloudy skies, warning about the dangers of deadly rip currents.)

As for Tropical Storm Fiona, aside from the fact that her name — a replacement for 2004’s retired “Frances,” one of that season’s four landfalling Florida hurricanes — always makes me think of the ogre princess from Shrek, there’s little to say: it appears she will either follow Earl out to sea or die trying. (Fast-moving Fiona is rapidly catching up to Earl, and may be simply torn apart by the more powerful storm’s upper-level outflow.)

The next area worth watching is tropical wave “98L” in the eastern Atlantic, but at least for now, NHC gives it only a 10% chance of becoming T.D. 9 (or T.S. Gaston — two consecutive Disney* cartoon characters!) in the next 48 hours.

By the way, for those keeping score at home, the Atlantic hurricane season reaches its climatological peak in just under two weeks. So all this activity isn’t especially surprising.

*CORRECTION: In comments, JD correctly notes that Fiona is a DreamWorks character, not a Disney character.

I heard Robert Gibbs on NPR this morning, repeating the now-familiar Democratic talking point that the Republicans are advocating policies that would take us backward to the conditions that created this financial & economic crisis in the first place, whereas the Democrats are moving the country forward and digging us out from the hole that those GOP policies created (and will continue to do so after they hold onto their majorities in November, per Gibbs). There’s nothing surprising about this — I mean, what else can the Dems say, really? — but it occurred to me that there’s a risk to this rhetorical strategy, inevitable though the strategy may be.

The risk comes from the fact that the Democrats’ absolute best-case scenario for this November’s elections is to lose, but not lose too badly. Even in the wildest dreams of Gibbs, Obama, Pelosi and Reid, we’ll be looking at diminished Democratic majorities in both houses of Congress come next January. Granted, that’s a pretty typical result historically — the incumbent party almost always loses seats in the midterms — and it’s a damn near inevitable result when you couple a bad economy with single-party rule in Washington. Whatever you think of the Dems’ actual policies, the reality is that voters react first and foremost to superficial stimuli, with “economy bad, party in power bad” being the most powerful by far. In reality, therefore, a moderate-to-somewhat-but-not-too-severe setback at the polls for the Democrats wouldn’t really say much other than, “Voters behaved in exactly the way political scientists (and armchair blog-pundits) would expect them to behave.”

But reality is one thing, and perception is another. Spin as they might, nobody outside of the pundit class is going to see a 20+ seat loss in the House, and a 3-5 seat loss in the Senate (again, I’m talking best-case scenario here), as a “victory” for Obama and the Dems. So, if they’re creating a narrative whereby a vote for the GOP is a vote for the past, and a vote for the Dems is a vote for the future, aren’t they creating a near-100% certainty that the “past” will be perceived to have won? Don’t they risk constructing an artificial “mandate” for what they would view as reactionary policies, or at least for “no more change” for a while?

Again, maybe this is all inevitable: I don’t know what the alternative messaging strategy would be, other than the tried-and-true Democratic “curl up in a ball and die” strategy. Moreover, whatever their message, maybe Obama & the Dems recognize that there isn’t going to be much in the way of major “change” in the second half of Obama’s term anyway, given the state of the economy and the budget and the political climate. Still, this thought crossed my mind, and I thought it was worth sharing, to see what others think.

P.S. Side note: I continue to believe that the best thing that can happen to Obama’s 2012 re-election chances is for the Republicans to take back at least one, and ideally both, houses of Congress. Just as the GOP victory in ‘94 set the stage for Clinton’s ‘96 re-election, so would the Republicans once again “peaking too soon” take a good deal of heat off Obama going forward, since he’ll then be able to more plausibly blame the Republicans for stalling his agenda. (The average voter doesn’t understand, or doesn’t care, about filibusters and Blue Dogs and whatnot — as far as they’re concerned, Democrats have 100% power right now, and so everything that goes wrong is 100% their fault. Not so if they share power with the GOP.)

Conversely, the worst-case scenario is for Obama is if the Dems cling to very, very slim majorities in both houses, thus crippling their ability to govern, but maintaining the “one-party rule” perception. And while normally, Obama would still have an incentive to fight for every seat in order to have a chance at enacting at least some of his agenda, I am skeptical, as I indicated above, that there’s going to be much room — politically or fiscally — for an “agenda” in 2011 and 2012 beyond treading water, starting to address the deficit, and hoping like hell the economy starts to improve. So really, what does Obama gain from a Democratic “win” (i.e., “not-so-bad loss”) in November? Not much, as far as I can tell. As such, maybe the “alternative messaging strategy” is for Gibbs to shut his yapper, and let the chips fall as they may? “Curl up in a ball and die” FTW!

[Cross-posted from Sullivan's Travellers.]

First, please accept my apologies, anyone who’s been looking here for hurricane updates. I’ve been derelict in my storm-watching duties — indeed, I don’t know if there’s ever been a time in the last 20 years when I’ve paid this little attention to a major hurricane in the Atlantic, never mind one that’s a possible threat to New England! But I’ve just been very, very busy with work and my girls, and to make matters worse, today I was diagnosed with a case of mild iritis, the treatment of which makes it periodically almost impossible to look at a computer screen.

But enough about me. Hurricane Earl strengthened to a Category 4 monster today, and for a while, there seemed to be some chatter about possible intensification to Cat. 5 over the near-record-warm waters that it’s traversing with very little wind shear (though the NHC’s latest discussion says the intensity seems to have “leveled off,” and atmospheric conditions are shortly expected to become marginally less perfect for intensification). Meanwhile the forecast track has Earl passing, as Drudge has been blaring all day, “Dangerously Close to East Coast.” This has led a few folks to ask me whether this is the potential New York City nightmare-scenario hurricane that we’ve heard a bit about in recent years.

The short answer is: No. The worst-case NYC hurricane would approach New York Harbor from the southeast, moving NNW or NW into North Jersey, perhaps mercifully ridding America of the cast of “Jersey Shore,” but also catastrophically flooding Manhattan in the process, by bringing the storm’s deadly “right-front quadrant” over the Harbor and the City. And this could happen with little warning and minimal forecast certainty until it’s too late to act, because the hypothetical monster hurricane would be moving so fast. It’s something like a 500-year storm, and it would be an epic disaster. Thankfully, it’s almost certainly not this storm.

As you can see above, the forecast models diverge on exactly where Earl will go, with a few (including the HWRF, a pretty good model) predicting a direct hit on Cape Cod. But they all predict a NNE or NE movement at closest approach to the New England/New York area. Nobody thinks this storm will be moving due north, nevermind NNW or NW, by the time it reaches that latitude. That’s usually how it is with hurricanes north of Hatteras, and it’s why the NYC scenario is such an outlier (albeit one that will happen eventually, given enough time).

Now, don’t get me wrong, Earl most definitely bears watching, for everyone from the Carolinas to Maine. It could be a pretty big deal, even a disaster, for somebody (though the odds are better that it will be a “fish,” at least for the U.S. — Nova Scotia stands a good chance of getting whalloped). But the worst-case scenario is probably either a direct hit on North Carolina or a Hurricane Gloria redux. Neither the 1938 “Long Island Express” scenario, nor the hypothetical NYC nightmare scenario, appear to be in play.

Guest post by Jim Kelly

I had not even heard about the Beck Rally until about two weeks ago.  Normally I look on these sorts of events with a mild curiosity, but rarely does this curiosity force me to get off my duff and actually make the 30-minute trip down to the Mall from my home in suburban Maryland, along the dreaded Green Line.  But today would be different, as I had already made plans to enjoy one of the favorite pastimes of the East Coast Liberal Elite: going to a museum.  As I’d be down there anyway, I decided to head down a little early and check things out.

To be fair to rally attendees, there were plenty of trucks in the College Park Metro station garage, making it immediately obvious that Beck supporters aren’t as scared of traveling in areas where they “don’t know where [they] are.”  As Maryland is an overwhelmingly liberal state, the fact that there was an overrepresentation of trucks and bumper stickers saying, “NObama” was a pretty good indication that we’d had some Beck supporters head into the city from there.

I didn’t make it down there until about noon, right when the rally should be reaching its crescendo (it was slated to finish at 1PM).  Exiting at Archives, I headed East down the Mall towards the Washington Monument and Lincoln Memorial.  At first the mall was rather empty save for a few people who had cut out early walking the other way.  You could spot them immediately, with their rally shirts or wrapped in their Gadsden flags (which incidentally I’ve been hearing really pisses some people in the Navy off).  As I approached the Washington Monument, we passed a small set-up with a picture of King and speakers that appeared to be playing a recording of the speeches from the day of King’s famous “I Have a Dream” speech.

As we reached the Washington Monument, you could see the first groups of rally attendees, mostly shuttling back and forth from the rally, although some had camped out on the high ground of the monument’s mound to get a better vantage point.  Continuing eastbound we crossed 17th street before hitting real “crowds.”  I met up with a friend there who, along with my wife, was sporting an Obama t-shirt.  We met several locals who were, as one person put it, “there to see the freak show.”  Additionally we actually met one liberal in the crowd who had driven down from Pennsylvania to see what was going on.

All in all, I’ll say the crowd was respectful of our display of opposing opinions. I heard a couple people scoff at my wife’s shirt, but nothing overly disrespectful or vulgar.  I’ve heard reports that some counter-protesters got into minor scuffles or tense moments with rally attendees, but to their credit, the attendees were largely respectful.  Granted, we weren’t holding up a sign like this guy.

After a few minutes poking around the edges of the crowd near the WWII Memorial, we decided to wade in a bit, and I was surprised to see that the crowd really didn’t spill over to the sides at all; the grass around the WWII Memorial was pretty empty.  On the reflecting pool side of the memorial, however, things started getting a little packed, and we continued up to there before deciding against heading further into the crowd, lest we block our escape should they cry for liberal blood (I kid, I kid).

We stood there for a little bit, listening to Beck’s speech, trying to gauge the reaction of the crowd.  I was a little surprised to hear the religious connotations to the speech. It was not overly political, a theme that apparently I was not the only one to pick up on.  Indeed Beck was careful to criticize both Republicans and Democrats alike when he strayed to politics.  In fact, of the 10 minutes or so I really listened to (admittedly not a lot), I thought his pronouncements were relatively mild.  He asked people to be charitable, brought up issues with people paying for healthcare bills and generally seemed to call for things that even a liberal could love.  When one of my group remarked jokingly that it sounded like Beck was calling for socialism, people around us tilted their heads a little oddly, but you could tell that while they didn’t quite think Beck was calling for socialism, perhaps they weren’t getting what they were looking for out of the rally.

Indeed, on my way home on the metro later that day, I overheard a group that had been at the rally, driving all the way in from Ohio, lamenting that the crowd was not “whipped up.”  This was universally the reaction amongst those who had attended with me, that the crowd seemed subdued.  We discussed what this could mean.  Would this equate to lower turnout?  More disorganization?  Burnout?  It might be tempting to think that, but with people driving so far just to attend a rally, there is a certain amount of inherent dedication to the cause that one must assume.  I was left thinking it was hard to read what that meant.

The man on the train also made another comment that I thought was interesting.  He said that Beck’s speech was essentially just a rehash of the kinds of things he says daily.  Apparently this man “listens” to Beck daily, although I don’t know in what capacity, on television or radio.  That comment is interesting in that this religious push that the media seems to be registering may have been going on longer than we’ve noticed, just coming to the fore recently.  I used to listen to Beck years ago on talk radio in Philadelphia (yeah, I liked getting my blood pressure up), and he was pretty secular back then as I remember it.  I always thought he was kind of the goofy guy who didn’t really think things out too well and made funny voices.  I can’t say I thought he was ever going to go this far.

The general mood as we trudged away from the rally a little early to beat the crowd seemed to be that people liked it.  It was a subdued like, but people seemed happy with the message.  Again, it’s hard to read what that will mean for the November elections.  One amusing sticker I saw on some people was, “I can see November from my house.”  Heh.  Well played.

As a last note, I’d like to discuss crowd size estimates.  First I’ll say I think crowd size estimates are a little ridiculous in that everyone seems to seem to want to use them to legitimize or delegitimize an event.  I think that’s stupid.  As much as I disagree with the people out at the rally, I have to give them credit for not just getting out of their house, but in many cases coming in from all over the place (the furthest travel I saw direct evidence of was from Minnesota, that’s impressive).  If you can get thousands of people together, you should be applauded.  Now certainly things change a little when you break a million.  With a million people you need to stop and say, “wow, people are pretty pissed.”  But that doesn’t take away from the achievement of getting all the people they did.  I have participated in protests far smaller than this rally on the mall, and I don’t consider the cause I supported any less legitimate than theirs.

That said, out of some sense of things being “right” or to be pedantic, I’ll throw my observations into the mix as regards crowd size.  First, let’s start with the ridiculous, and throw those out.  According to Newser’s round up of estimates, Michelle Bachmann said that, “we’re not going to let anyone get away with saying there were less than a million here today.”  That’s utterly preposterous, and along the lines of the whole “is Fox stupid or evil” thing, it’s hard to decide if she’s trying to be deliberately obtuse or if she’s just a moron.  The Obama inauguration paralyzed the city, clogged the entire mall, not just the portion past 17th St NW, and has been estimated at between 800,000 and 1.8 million (pretty big swing, huh?).  It is not possible that this rally even was a quarter as big.  Flat out.

My own completely irrelevant guesstimate was 100k, a number I pulled completely out of my ass as a guess while we were there.  CBS news seems to be saying 78-98k, which I would believe.  ABC and NBC have said the “100s of thousands” was a possible estimate, although I believe NBC said either 10s or 100s of thousands (pretty big swing again, huh?).  Fox, unsurprisingly, uncritically took Beck’s estimate (at least according to Newser they did) of 500k people, which again is just flat out wrong.  If I was going to adjust my range based on the estimates and what I saw that day, I’d say 80-150k people.  Since it didn’t even really cross 17th St NW and did not spill over to the sides very much and people weren’t standing in the reflecting pool, it just can’t be that much.  But again, that’s more in a sense of pedantic correctness than for political reasons.  It beat the pants off of any protest I’ve attended there as regards attendance.  :)

If anyone is interested, I have a few more photos not shown here on my Flickr page.

Added: Here’s an overhead shot of the mall to consider when thinking about the crowd size estimate:

http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q….

It’s ironic, really, how much I’ve come to loathe Sarah Palin and everything she represents, and to earnestly believe that John McCain’s selection of her as his runningmate — and elevation of her poisonous presence onto the national stage — was one of the most reckless, irresponsible, indefensible, politics-first/country-last decisions in modern political history, such that it caused me to lose a lot of the respect I once had for the good and honorable man who was the GOP’s presidential candidate in 2008.

Ironic, I say, because the moment McCain introduced Palin to the nation, two years ago today — at a Dayton, Ohio rally, which I watched live online from work in Knoxville — was quite literally the emotional high-point of the entire campaign for me. Granted, that’s largely because I’m a Notre Dame alum who happens to be a huge sucker for the “Rudy” soundtrack, which is the music that was played when Palin came on stage. But still. It literally gave me goosebumps, moreso than anything in Obama’s acceptance speech in Denver the night before, or his triumph on election night, or even his epic, transcendent “they said this day would never come” / “Yes We Can” speech in Iowa. Those moments were great — but this was the highlight of the whole stinkin’ campaign, for me:

Who knew, back then, what a cancer on the body politic Palin would turn out to be? At that moment, I’ve often joked, if someone had handed me a ballot, I’d have cast it enthusiastically for McCain, Palin and Rudy. :)

P.S. Go Irish! Beat Boilers! :)

P.P.S. Here’s a handheld video taken by someone who was there:

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Guest post by David K.

Desert News blogger Jared Eborn says that a source has informed him that talks between BYU and the WAC continue and that ESPN is still involved.

BYU is apparently still commited to independence (which would jive with why they haven’t declared that they are staying in the Mountain West yet) and that the WAC is still a viable landing spot ESPECIALLY if they can land a few members with the help of the stormin Mormons and some assurances from ESPN. Not only is there talk of reaching out to Conference USA schools, but some Mountain West schools as well. It’s doubtful that conference leaders like TCU or recent WAC defectees Boise State, Nevada or Fresno State would jump back to the WAC, but Eborn mentions MWC bottom feeders New Mexico and Colorado State, along with Wyoming and Air Force as potential targets.

Such a scenario could end up helping the Mountain West. Shedding dead weight like New Mexico, or the decent Wyoming team that brings in little TV-wise, could help the Mountain West increase its perception as a potential BCS league, particuarly if they can pick up teams like Houston and UTEP from Conference USA to move back up to 10 teams.

As I’ve said before, I think it makes sense for New Mexico to pair with its in-state rival (just as Nevada and UNLV are now paired in the MWC). Pick up the Lobos plus one more school, and the WAC is back to a safe 8 teams in football, and 9 with BYU in all other sports.

Guest post by David K.

Ever since the 4th of July, when we listened to a some patriotic music in the car while driving to a fireworks show, Loyette has been obsessed with, as she adorably calls it, “pay-pee-otic” music.

For a while, her favorite was “God Bless America” (which she now has memorized, and will sometimes sing in its entirety when she feels randomly inspired to burst into song). Then, for a time, her favorite was “You’re a Grand Old Flag.” Then, “Anchors Aweigh.” Now, it’s this song, from the 1957 Disney movie Johnny Tremain and the Sons of Liberty. She calls it the “Tree Song,” as in, “Can we hear the Tree Song, Daddy?”

Wow, I haven’t watched that scene since… seventh grade, maybe? I’m pretty sure we watched that movie in some history or social studies class in middle school. Heh. Anyway, God Bless YouTube.

If I remember correctly, the singing patriots are coming back from the Boston Tea Party as they march through the streets, singing about the “Liberty Tree.” Which, in turn, makes me realize what’s missing from all these Tea Party rallies: they need more showtunes! Get Disney to write a snappy song about how Obama sucks, then they’ll really have something. :)

On an unrelated note, Loyette has also memorized the “Notre Dame Victory March,” and will sometimes sing it all by herself. I’m hoping to get a video, before the season starts, of her singing the whole thing. Then, Becky says I should publish it, with a tipjar, start a “Send This Girl To A Notre Dame Game” fundraising drive, and hope it goes viral. Heh.

Guest post by David K.

Jon Wilner of the San Jose Mercury News added a late night update to his blog with some new info on the MWC/WAC conference shakeup and BYU’s next moves.

First, there is the news that BYU has reached out to the West Coast Conference. The WCC doesn’t have football, so this would be the destination for BYU’s other sports if they go independent in football. The WCC is most well-known for mid-major basketball power Gonzaga, so adding BYU would be a coup. The religious makeup of the WCC (7 Catholic and 1 Protestant institution) is also a good fit for the LDS-affiliated BYU.

Second, Hawaii has reached out to the Big West (also a non-football conference, made up of all California schools) for its non football sports, as it also ponders independence in football.

Third, Utah State is talking with the Mountain West about membership, after turning down an initial offer last week in order to stay with the WAC (which it obviously assumed others would do as well). With the WAC falling apart (especially if Hawaii leaves too), they need somewhere to land, and the Mountain West would like to maintain a presence in Salt Lake City.

If BYU goes independent and Utah State joins the Mountain West, that puts the MWC back at 11. They will certainly push for a 12th member. Houston is a logical option. On the other hand, with Fresno State and San Diego State already in the conference, and the WAC collapsing, the Cal State system might push the Mountain West to pick up San Jose State either as the 12th or 13th member. Louisiana Tech has two potential landing spots, either the Sun Belt or Conference USA (especially if Houston leaves for the Mountain West).

That would leave Idaho and New Mexico State floating in the wind. Of the two, New Mexico State is in the best shape, as they are within spitting distance of some of the Sun Belt and Conference USA schools (New Mexico State is practically next door to UTEP).

Idaho is screwed. I mean seriously, where do they go? The Mountain West doesn’t want them, they are ridiculously far from any other conference, and independence would be rough. If I’m the Vandals, I’m lobbying the remaining WAC school as hard as possible to stick together, and hopefully pull off a few surprises of their own to stay alive.

What can the WAC do to stay afloat? With 6 teams, they can survive for a couple of years, but they need to get back up to 8 to keep their automatic bids to NCAA tournaments and such.

Possible Division I-A expansion targets would be UTEP, North Texas, Rice, SMU and Tulsa.

Possible Division I-AA targets would be UC-Davis, Cal Poly, Montana, UT-San Antonio (who will begin a football team in 2011 headed by former Miami coach Larry Coker).

If the WAC survives, I imagine it would trade UTEP for Louisiana Tech (with an NCAA exception for the 6 schools together rule) and pick up North Texas and a couple of I-AA schools (UT-San Antonio and one or both of the Cal schools).

A few minutes ago, I got a @ message from somebody on Twitter saying, “Wondering if you’ve already seen this??!?!?” with a link to this blog post on Gawker, titled “Law Grads Ungrateful for Their Priceless Knowledge.” What makes the post noteworthy, from my perspective, is the stock photo they used to illustrate it:

The post has nothing to do with me — and, in fact, I’m neither unemployed nor ungrateful; on the contrary, I am very grateful for my legal education! Love thee, Notre Dame! — but I guess the author, Hamilton Nolan, or whatever member of the Gawker Media Empire was responsible for illustrating Mr. Nolan’s post, felt that a picture of me looking dorky on graduation day wearing my 2007 glasses (which, incidentally, I bought at the Fiesta Bowl Block Party on New Year’s Eve 2006-07 in Tempe) was a good stock photo to accompany the post.

I have no problem with the photo — I blogged it, after all! — but, in that context, under that headline, it’s not exactly the image of myself I’d choose to put out there. And technically, Gawker is violating my copyright by using the photo without permission. I do sometimes post photos on Flickr with Creative Commons attribution, but this wasn’t one of those — it was published directly on my server, and they downloaded it from this old blog post, which they then linked back to. That, at least, was good etiquette, and I seem to be getting a (very) small traffic surge as a result.*

Still, to be all legal and stuff, they should have asked before posting the picture. But, at least at present, I don’t feel inclined to make a ruckus about it (though I reserve the right to do so). Instead, I think I’ll follow Ryan Kessler’s advice, and proceed on the assumption that the Gawker Media Empire and I have an unwritten agreement whereby it’s okay to steal each other’s content at will, without asking. :) Filed away for future reference! Heh.

As an aside, I can’t help but wonder: was that photo pulled at random, in response to a Google search for “law grad 2007 dorky glasses” or some such? Or is there an ND Nation plant, or some other blog-troll from the bad old days — the sort of person who makes malicious edits to my Wikipedia page and the like — on Gawker’s staff, who specifically went looking for a photo of me to go under that rather unflattering headline? I have no idea, though absent evidence to the contrary, I assume it was random.

*UPDATE: Shoot! I’m not actually registering any traffic surge, because there’s no SiteMeter image on that old page! I must have forgotten to put traffic trackers there when I transitioned it over from TypePad to a static HTML page on my server. UPDATE 2: Fixed!

No comments from the peanut gallery on my t-shirt being a symbol of USC’s “dirty” program, please. :) Oh, and about those hand-prints on Becky’s bra? I’d love to take credit, but they’re totally not mine! My hands are way bigger. :P They’re actually hers. I’m not sure what inspired her to grab her own boobs… I guess that’s just what warriors do?

Incidentally, if you look closely at the small dots along the winding orange lines in the background of the “after” photo — yeah, those are runners in the next leg of the race, ascending the hill. We mostly walked up the hill (as did many, many others). Heh. The downhill part was nice, though!

Anyway, here’s another before & after, of my legs and shoes:

If you’re wondering where all that mud came from, here’s a video of folks in a later heat doing the crucial muddy leg of the obstacle-filled course:

You’ll notice that, at 0:19 of the video, a piece of mud flies up when World War II Helmet Guy #1 falls in the mud, and, yup, lands right by my iPhone’s lens. D’oh!

Anyway, back to Becky and me. Here we are, with our hard-earned turkey legs:

And here we are, striking some poses:

WARRIORS!!!! :) More later.

If you’ve been following the Mountain West-WAC drama of recent days, you really need to check out the Mountain West’s Facebook feed. (What’s below is just a small sample.) Funny stuff.

It’s been a crazy day for conference realignment, and I mean really, really crazy — we’ve been through basically the entire cycle of the Pac-16 / Big 12 drama, except with the mid-majors, and in the course of like 12 hours instead of a week-plus. Absolutely insane. I don’t know how it will all shake out, but I just want to submit my opinion that, from a football competitive (not financial) perspective, if the goal is to reach BCS bowls, the notion of BYU becoming an independent is wolf-face crazy — the kind of decision you make when you are drunk, and on cocaine, and on deadline, and on fire.

Allow me to explain. (And yes, I know Mormons don’t drink or do cocaine. All the more reason why this is a crazy idea!)

Under the current rules, the highest-ranked champion of a “non-BCS” (or non-AQ) conference gets an automatic “at-large” BCS bid, if they’re ranked in the top 12 (or in the top 16 and ahead of a BCS conference champ). Recent years have demonstrated that there will nearly always be such a team. First off, basically any unbeaten team, from any mid-major conference, with any schedule, will be in position by season’s end. Hawaii, which was manifestly not an elite team, having played a simply awful schedule, nevertheless was ranked highly enough to reach a BCS bowl in 2007-08. Likewise, the next year, 12-0 MAC West champ Ball State would’ve been a BCS auto-qualifier, despite having played nobody and proven nothing, if 1) they’d beaten Buffalo (!) in the MAC title game, and 2) there hadn’t been other non-BCS teams ahead of them. And if there isn’t an unbeaten champ to claim the mantle, there will most likely be a 1-loss champ from the MWC, or perhaps C-USA/MAC/WAC (schedule permitting), to do so. Absent that, a 2-loss MWC champ may well have a shot.* Major-conference attrition naturally causes these teams to rise into automatic qualifying position by season’s end. Bottom line, it’s highly unlikely and unusual for a season to end without a non-BCS conference champion being ranked in the top 12. Although we have a limited historical record to work from, given how drastically perceptions and rankings (and BCS formulas) have changed in recent years, I’d guess it’s a once-in-a-decade type of occurrence.

*For instance, 10-2 non-champ TCU was ranked #11 in 2008. Likewise, 10-2 non-champ BYU was ranked #14 in 2009, finishing out of the top 12 only because of Boise State and TCU being ahead of it. You laugh, but history suggests a 2-loss MWC champ will have an excellent shot at the top 12 if there are no other mid-major contenders, depending on the timing and nature of the losses (and wins). And a 1-loss MWC champ is a shoo-in.

If BYU were to stay in the Mountain West, it could routinely be that undefeated, 1-loss or even 2-loss MWC champ with a clear path to an automatic BCS invite. By going independent, it loses that auto-bid path. And what does it get instead? Well, um, nothing, actually.

Y’see, independents not named Notre Dame are not guaranteed a BCS spot by finishing in the top 12, or the top 8, or even the top 4. The only way they can earn an auto bid is by finishing in the top 2, and going to the title game! Otherwise, if they’re in the top 14, they’re eligible for an at-large, but nobody can force the bowls to take them. Up until now, this applied only to Army, Navy and Western Kentucky, so it wasn’t really an issue (although, watch out for those Midshipmen this year!). But if BYU goes indy, it’ll become a much bigger deal. BYU could finish #3 in the BCS, yet not be guaranteed a spot. (Gee, who do you think the Orange Bowl is gonna take? #3 BYU or #8 Ohio State? Or, hell, #13 Notre Dame?)

But surely, you say, some BCS bowl is likely to take pity on a highly ranked Cougars team, and pick them voluntarily. Not so fast, my friend! Sure, an undefeated, #3-ranked Cougars team is an extreme example, and would very probably end up in a BCS bowl, one way or another. But what about a #5-ranked squad? #6? #7? If they were still in the Mountain West, such a team would be guaranteed a spot. As an independent? Well…

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My tweet importer thingy, which depends on the increasingly unreliable FriendFeed, has been up and down, but I just a series of posted tweets that I wanted to reproduce here.

WARNING: Rant ahead. Contains some salty language. Proceed at your own risk.

The tweets were inspired by this article, in which Glenn Beck reveals himself, once again, to be a monstrous asshole of the first order:

Unemployed activists have clamored for news attention to the plight of the “99ers,” people who have exhausted the unprecedented 99 weeks of unemployment benefits made available in some states to fight the worst recession since the Great Depression.

They got some attention they might not have wanted on Monday, when Fox News host Glenn Beck introduced them to his viewers. “Have you heard of the 99ers?” said Beck, showing video from a New York rally last Thursday. “Some of these people, I bet you’d be ashamed to call them Americans.”

Beck had free advice for the jobless activists at the protest: “Don’t spend your remaining money on travel to get to a protest. Go out and get a job. You may not want the job. Work at McDonald’s. Work two jobs. There has been plenty of times in my life I’ve done jobs I hated, but I had no choice. Two years is plenty of time to have lived off your neighbor’s wallet.”

It’s an argument that resonates with many members of Congress, especially Republicans. Some long-term jobless, however, might counter that they’ve been turned down for jobs for which they were overqualified because of age discrimination, or because managers don’t want to hire someone who will bolt for a better job as soon as the economy improves. For every story about a business owner complaining that potential workers would rather live on unemployment insurance, there’s another about businesses flat-out refusing to hire the unemployed. After all, there are nearly 15 million unemployed competing for three million jobs.

Another way of phrasing the intro to the above paragraph would be: “It’s an argument that resonates with many members of Congress, especially Republicans. Some long-term jobless, however, might counter these demogogic emotional appeals to unreason, prejudice and reflexive cultural-war bullshit with actual facts. For instance…”

Anyway, here’s my tweeted response:

Glenn Beck On Long-Term Unemployed: ‘Ashamed To Call Them Americans’ http://huff.to/bBjsWz | I’m ashamed to call Glenn Beck an American.

Some conservatives think EVERYTHING is fodder for a personal-responsibility culture war. Circumstances be damned; it’s always victims’ fault.

This overreaction to liberal victimology is one of the most repulsive strains in American politics, and a key reason I remain left of center.

If you think the primary cause of long-term unemployment NOW, in worst job recession since WWII, is laziness, you’re an idiot or a bad person.

Are there some lazy unemployeds? Of course. But they’re so far from being the central issue that they aren’t even worth talking about.

The overwhelming hypocrisy, self-righteousness, and total lack of compassion in the Beck argument is beyond repulsive. It’s almost evil.

If you can’t tell, Beck struck a nerve, as this is a long-running pet peeve of mine. Don’t get me wrong: there are times when liberal policies enable or incentivize personal irresponsibility. (Of course, so do conservative policies at times — though it’s usually the rich, rather than the poor, who are incentivized by conservative policies to behave irresponsibly. But that’s another post for another day.) It’s important to have sane, adult conservative voices, promoting personal responsibility, as a check on liberals’ tendency to engage in excessive victimology. I genuinely believe that.

But so often, particularly in venues like talk radio, right-wing conservatives take this philosophy much too far, basically adopting, as an article of faith, the belief that anyone who fails or struggles is automatically (or at least presumptively) to blame for their own troubles, due to laziness or irresponsibility or some other fault — or perhaps I should say, sin — that’s internal to the struggling individual. In other words, they assume, in the absence of any other information, that it’s the victim’s fault.

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