By David K.
The situation in the North is exactly where we left it a week ago. In the South, there has been some shuffling between the two trios of teams, but the gap between the two divisions looms larger than ever. This week, we get a slate of 5 conference match ups, while Oregon and Cal enjoy a bye week to prepare for a Thursday night matchup on the 6th.
By Brendan Loy
The final night of Major League Baseball’s regular season was ridiculous, absurd, impossible, unbelievable, indescribable.
Thanks to a win earlier in the evening by the St. Louis Cardinals, the Atlanta Braves needed a win to force a one-game playoff for the NL wild card that they once seemed certain to win (having led by 10 1/2 games in late August). The Braves came within one out of the needed victory — only to lose in 13 innings, ending their season. And that was the undercard.
Over in the American League, the Boston Red Sox, trying to prevent the ignominy of possibly the worst September collapse in baseball history, led the lowly Orioles 3-2 heading into a 90-minute seventh-inning rain delay in Baltimore, while the Sox’s wild-card competition, the Tampa Bay Rays, trailed the mighty Yankees 7-0 in the eighth at home. Tampa and Boston had been tied for the AL wild card heading into the day, so with a Rays loss appearing all but certain, it looked like the Sox could clinch the wild card by holding on for the win, or at worst, lose and face a one-game playoff.
Then, well, several things happened.
Tampa rallied in the bottom of the eighth, scoring six runs to pull within 7-6. Then, down to their last strike in the bottom of the ninth, the Rays tied the game on a pinch-hit home run by Dan Johnson, sending the game to extra innings.
Around the same time, the Boston game resumed, with the Red Sox suddenly in a much more precarious position thanks to Tampa’s comeback. But they clung to their 3-2 lead, and got closer Jonathan Papelbon in, hoping to close it out in the bottom of the ninth. Boston, mind you, was 77-0 this season when leading after eight innings. And at first, it looked like this would be no exception. Papelbon struck out the first two batters, then allowed a double. But then he had the Orioles — stop me if this sounds familiar — down to their last strike before giving up a game-tying ground-rule double by Nolan Reimold to tie the game… followed promptly by Robert Andino’s game-winning single. 4-3, Baltimore, final.
And then, literally 3 or 4 minutes later, in Tampa… BOOM.
Unbelievable.
The Rays go to the playoffs. The Red Sox go home. As it should be, frankly. Boston didn’t deserve a playoff spot after its September choke job. And fate was clearly on Tampa’s side tonight. But man, what an unbelievably epic, horrible, wonderful, incredible, ridiculous way for it all to go down.
By Brendan Loy
President Obama is in Denver today to give a speech about his jobs plan, but apparently he — or at least his press office — are slightly confused about which rectangular-shaped state Denver is located in:
AAAH-HAHAHAHA. Hey, cut the man a break. It’s hard to keep all 57 states straight!
By Brendan Loy
[NOTE: For the latest, follow @UARS_Reentry on Twitter.]
NASA’s Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite, better known as “UARS,” will soon crash back to Earth in an uncontrolled re-entry. NASA previously thought this would happen this afternoon, which meant North America was seemingly out of the woods. But according to an update this morning, the satellite’s descent has slowed, and re-entry is now expected late tonight or early tomorrow, Eastern Daylight Time. The Aerospace Corporation’s Center for Orbital and Reentry Debris Studies is currently predicting a re-entry time of 11:16 PM Eastern — plus or minus five hours.
Because the satellite orbits the globe every 90 minutes or so, that broad range of uncertainty (which will narrow as we get closer to crashdown/splashdown) means a whole lot of land and ocean is potentially in its path. Specifically:
So the odds are, it won’t hit the U.S., or anywhere near the U.S. But it could! And so, let’s get a little parochial. Here’s an UNOFFICIAL map that I created, using this map from The Weather Space as my starting point, then adding APPROXIMATE times (based on data from Heavens Above and the above map by the Aerospace Corporation), showing ROUGHLY the time windows when UARS will be passing near or over the U.S. tonight, if it stays aloft long enough to reach each of these arcs in its orbit:
As you can see, if it re-enters a half-hour earlier than its predicted ~11:16 PM EDT time, or an hour later (or 2 hours earlier, or 2 1/2 hours later), it could be over or near the U.S. or Canada.
And now, to get even more parochial… if the timing is juuuuust right, it might be visible from Denver!
That’s from Heavens Above. The dotted line means the satellite will be in Earth’s shadow (which is another way of saying we’ll be long past sunset when it flies over), so it won’t be visible unless it’s in the process of re-entering the atmosphere. But if that happens to be the case, it’ll be awesome!
I’m crossing my fingers — the odds of satellite pieces injuring anyone or causing serious damage is very, very low, even if it does come in over land, because the vast majority of land area is unpopulated. However, as I mentioned yesterday, the odds of a spectacular light show are high, if UARS re-enters in an area where it’s visible:
As the satellite descends to an altitude of about 50 miles (80 kilometers), friction with the atmosphere is converted to light and heat. As it moves on a relatively slow – one could almost use the adjective “majestic” – flight across the sky, what is usually seen is a long trail of light and sparks that can take on virtually every color of the rainbow.
Small chunks of the satellite may be seen to break off and trail behind the main body. (NASA expects up to 26 pieces from UARS to survive re-entry and reach the ground.) If the re-entry occurs at night, it could light up the sky with a brilliance that easily rivals the full moon. Even if it occurs during the daytime, the satellite’s fiery passage across the sky could be readily seen.
Notes veteran satellite watcher Kevin Fetter: “A nice sized [satellite] with a uncontrolled re-entry. What a nice light show it should put on, if the decay occurs where people can see it.”
Can I get an 10:50 PM Eastern Time (8:50 PM Mountain Time) re-entry? LET’S MAKE THIS HAPPEN, PEOPLE!
By Brendan Loy
As expected, Big 12 commissioner Dan Beebe resigned today as part of the latest effort to save the Big 12. This caused the most hilarious account on Twitter, Fake Dan Beebe — the funniest fake tweeter since @MayorEmanuel and his pet duck Quaxelrod disappeared into the motherf***ing time portal — to go out in an absolute blaze of glory, one that can only be described as epic, or as David put it, #WINNING.
After the jump, for posterity, the entire, hourlong Fake Dan Beebe rant, in chronological order. Warning: salty language and anatomical references.
By Brendan Loy
A true must-see:
NASA: “Video of the Aurora Australis taken by the crew of Expedition 29 on board the International Space Station. This sequence of shots was taken September 17, 2011 from 17:22:27 to 17:45:12 GMT, on an ascending pass from south of Madagascar to just north of Australia over the Indian Ocean.”
Dr. Jeff Masters: “The rippling green curtains of the aurora as the space station zooms overhead are amazing!”
SpaceWeather.com: “Note how the underbelly of the space station glows green from the reflected light of the auroras below. Also, in the distance, Sirius the dog star and Orion the Hunter can be seen rising feet-first into the night sky.”
In other orbital news, here’s the latest from NASA on the “UARS” satellite that’s tumbling toward an uncontrolled re-entry. It’s now expected to crash/splash down sometime tomorrow during the afternoon EDT, but it won’t hit North America. Where exactly it will hit remains uncertain. NASA says that, because Earth is still quite sparsely populated in the grand scheme of things (and most of its surface is water), there’s “only” a 1-in-3,200 of a piece of the satellite causing human casualties. (I’ve seen this misreported as “your chance” of being hit, but of course that’s wrong — the odds of any individual person being hit are 1-in-something-trillion.)
That said, if the satellite’s path during re-entry takes it over a populated area, the light show will be quite spectacular:
By Brendan Loy
YAAAAAAAAAAY!!!!!!! The Pac-16 is dead! The Pac-16 is dead! The Pac-16 is dead!
USC, still in Boulder every other year! WOOHOO!!! Victory!!!
Larry Scott has decided to pull the plug on negotiations with Texas & co., apparently deeming that it wasn’t worth all the hassles and problems expansion was going to entail. Undoubtedly we’ll learn more about exactly what transpired in the coming hours and days, but bottom line, the Pac-12 is sticking at 12. This led to the hilarious spectacle of Oklahoma’s president implausibly trying to pretend that the Sooners totally didn’t want an invite from Scott’s stupid conference invite anyway. As one tweeter aptly put it, “OU ‘decided not to apply’ [to the Pac-12] for the same reason I’ve ‘decided not to ask Jessica Alba on a date’.”
This news follows on the heels of reports earlier Tuesday that a last-ditch effort to save the Big 12 was — again — underway, with Oklahoma making various demands, including the ouster of commissioner Dan Beebe, in return for its agreement to stay. As it turns out, not surprisingly, this feverish effort happened because the Big 12 schools knew that the Pac-12 had decided not to expand. So now it’ll likely be the Big 12 (Minus 3) expanding, to 10 or perhaps back to 12. Specifically, there’s word a BYU invite may be imminent. There’s also talk of Air Force or TCU or Louisville or West Virginia (rejected earlier today by the SEC and ACC).
Meanwhile, with Missouri apparently staying put in the Big 12, and with the ACC having previously marked its teams seemingly pretty much off-limits, the question arises: who the heck is the SEC’s 14th team? They can’t stay at 13 forever; the math doesn’t work, the scheduling is a nightmare, the divisions are impossible. But who do they add, if not Virginia Tech (ACC) or Florida State (ACC, and vetoed by Florida anyway) or Missouri (see above) or West Virginia (who they rejected today) or Louisville (vetoed by Kentucky)? Uh, Cincinnati?!? TCU?!? If all their options are subpar and would reduce revenue share, any chance they work together with the Big 12 to throw money at Arkansas to leave the SEC and rejoin the Big 12? That might be a win-win for the two leagues.
Anyway, I’d say more, but I’m like five more things will happen overnight, so what’s the point? Instead, how about some more Lord of the Rings quotes from my Twitter feed:
“There won’t *be* a Pac-16, Pippin.”
“I am a servant of the Pacific Fire, wielder of the flame of Coliseum. Go back to the shadow! Dark fire will not avail you, flame of Bevo!”
“Nine companions. So be it. You shall be the fellowship of the Longhorn.” “Great! Where are we going?”
“Boomer…yes, that’s what they used to call me. Boomer the Sooner. I am Boomer the White. And I come back to you now, at the turn of the tide.”
“You cannot wield it! None of us can! The Longhorn Network answers to Bevo alone.”
DeLoss Dodds: “The Longhorn Network…it’s so heavy.” Dan Beebe: “I can’t carry it for you, Mr. Dodds… BUT I CAN CARRY YOU! C’mon!!”
“Stand, Men of the West! Stand & wait! This is the hour of doom. … The realm of Dan Beebe is ended! The Sooner Schooner has fulfilled its quest.”
“The battle of the Pac-12 is over; the battle for college sports is about to begin.”
Also: “BREAKING: Oklahoma now demanding that the Longhorn Network be taken deep into the heart of Texas, cast back into the fiery chasm from whence it came.”
Oh, and totally unrelated, but also this: “BREAKING: Brett Favre to join Big XII as its tenth member. Will add much-needed stability.” :)
P.S. One more LOTR quote, from yesterday… unrelated to the Big 12 or Pac-12, but maybe my favorite yet, because of the reference to the Mountain West’s TV network, The Mtn.:
“So, Boise, you tried to join the MWC. And if that fails, where then will you go? If The Mtn defeats you, will you risk a more dangerous road?”
By Brendan Loy
“Fell deeds awake! Now for wrath, now for ruin, and an Orange dawn!”
In a stunning development that virtually guarantees #CHAOS and #PANIC on the conference realignment front, Syracuse and Pittsburgh have abandoned the Big East in favor of the ACC. So the ACC is the first conference to reach 14 teams — the SEC presently being stuck in limbo between 12 and 13, as Texas A&M sorts out its legal issues — and the Big East, at least its football side, is suddenly in #ZombieWAC territory, with UConn playing the role of Utah State: the last piece holding the league together. If the Huskies stay, maybe the Big East’s remnants can merge with the Big 12’s remnants, and live to fight another day. If the Huskies bolt, forget about it. UConn and Rutgers to the Big Ten, West Virginia and Louisville to the SEC, TCU back to the Mountain West, South Florida and Cincinnati to Conference USA? The Big East: It’s a DIASPORA!!! Or, to put it in terms of another Lord of the Rings quote:
“My teams are spent. My league has ended. Syracuse has deserted us. Pitt’s betrayed me. Abandon your posts! Flee, flee for your lives!”
Meanwhile, it appears likely the Pac-12 will imminently add Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, and maybe — or by some accounts, almost certainly — Texas and Texas Tech as well, in which case #BrendanLoyPANIC! (From USC in Boulder every other year to USC in Boulder every 8 years? NOOOOOOOO!!!!)
The next few days appear likely to see massive developments all around, and who knows how everything will look when they’re done. Except, you know, crappy.
UPDATE: UConn is reportedly aggressively pursuing ACC membership. So that’ll be it for the Big East as a football league. I doubt Rutgers joins UConn in the ACC, since Syracuse already gives that conference a pretty good NYC market foothold. (I realize Syracuse and New York City are very far apart geographically, but there’s a strong Syracuse alumni and fan base in NYC.) Instead, probably either West Virginia or Louisville joins the ACC as its 16th member, with the other one going to the SEC. Rutgers then pounds on the Big Ten’s door, and with the Big East collapsing, maybe Notre Dame joins them. In that vein, the real question, I suppose, is whether the Big East can keep it together in non-football sports, since that’s all ND needs them for anyway. If they can’t, the Big Ten can certainly afford to go 16, with Notre Dame one of the 16; if they can, and thus ND stays put, I’m not sure the economic rationale is there for the Big Ten to add a collection of four Big East and Big XII castaways. Maybe Rutgers, Kansas, Kansas State and, uh, I dunno, Iowa State?? South Florida?!? (Cincinnati would presumably be vetoed by Ohio State. Maybe they’ll end up in the ACC once the SEC steals one of its power teams along with Missouri from the Big XII?)
Meanwhile, no matter how you look at it, TCU appears to be screwed. But hey, that’s good news for Boise State! If the Mountain West can keep both the Broncos and the Frogs, they’ll be more relevant and can continue to try and push back — with congressional help — against being completely marginalized in football by the superconferences. Even better if Baylor ends up in the Mountain West…
By Brendan Loy
The Austin American-Statesman’s latest update on conference realignment reveals that Oklahoma is apparently dead-set on going west to the Pac-12, but Texas is still weighing three options: Pac-12, ACC, or independence. None of that is hugely shocking if you’ve been following this story, but this nugget is very important:
The ACC is willing to talk about a unique conference format that has intrigued Texas. Instead of divisions, the conference could be divided into four pods, with each pod containing four teams, to aid scheduling. …
[T]he Pac-12 has been in discussions about using a pod system as a way to divide the conference too. … Texas isn’t in love with the thought of playing in a division that includes none of the Los Angeles-based teams.
But [pod scheduling is] not what’s on the table right now.
“Texas really isn’t happy with the way the Pac-12 would like to align the conference,” a well-placed source said. “They want to put all the former Pac-8 schools in one division and group all the former Big 12 schools (assuming Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas and Texas Tech join) with Utah and the Arizona schools.”
Texas wants to be in the same division as UCLA and Southern Cal, which would be tougher, but it would also guarantee the Longhorns a trip to Los Angeles every year. Think recruiting.
Everyone will want to be in the same division as UCLA and USC, including Colorado, Utah and the Arizona schools, who — if they vote as a bloc — have the ability to block expansion altogether if they know they’re going to be ghettoized into the Pac-16 East (a.k.a. the Big XII Leftover Division). Texas, of course, can also single-handedly “block” further expansion (at least from 14 to 16) if they’re unhappy with the proposed divisional setup, by simply declining to join. So I really think this issue is underrated as a stumbling block on the road to the Pac-Superconference.
That said, whereas some sort of elaborate “pod” system might be attractive to the ACC as a way out of its confusing “Atlantic” and “Coastal” divisions (the setup that served as a cautionary tale which convinced the Pac-12’s Larry Scott not to adopt “zipper divisions” in the first place), the Pac-12 is going to be more skeptical. Still, as I suggested on David’s post, I think some form of pod system — either with conference semifinals, or a stupid situation where you get two “division” champions without everybody having played everybody else — is ultimately what will happen if the Pac-12 expands to 16, because resistance to the East/West split from the non-Pac-8 schools will just be too great to overcome.
If the Pac-12 just expands to 14… I don’t know. You could conceivably force Utah into the North to make room for the Oklahomas in the South; the Utes alone can’t stop expansion, and they arguably have the least room to complain, having just been airlifted into the BCS by virtue of their Pac-12 invite. But that would also make the divisions look awfully unbalanced competitively (once USC recovers from sanctions, anyway), disturbingly like the old Big 12 North/South split, especially if you assume that Stanford will soon fall to earth and Oregon isn’t going to be a Top 5 team forever (as those programs’ histories tend to suggest). Meanwhile, just as importantly if not moreso, this solution would massively reduce the entire North division’s L.A. access and/or force the end of the double California cross-division games, unless the conference regular-season schedule is expanded to 10 games, which seems implausible. So I’m just not sure how that would play out.
Ultimately, structurally, I really think 16-team superconferences, and probably 14-team ones as well, require some sort of pod system to work. Otherwise they aren’t really conferences at all, just two loosely affiliated 7- or 8-team divisions. But how you then fairly determine a champion becomes very tricky.
By Tim Stevens
I was planning to have this done by this morning. As you can see, things did not go as planned.
Part of it, most of it I suppose, is that while I have lots of thoughts about September 11, 2001 kicking around my brain, they don’t easily line up into any sort of easy narrative to be placed on the page. I have lots of observations and so very little structure. I was honestly tempted to just scrap the whole thing and just put up a piece about Superman maybe using an abbreviation for taking the Lord’s name in vain. But that felt like a cop out, like letting myself off the hook a bit too easy. No worries though, you’ll still be able to read how I feel about that whole Superman thing later in the week.
In any case, please bear in mind my remarkable lack of cohesion in putting this together and do your best to be kind if it all feels a bit…jumpy.
In reviewing the article I wrote on the 11th and the few days that followed (which was reprinted here on Friday) I was surprised by what I do and do not remember from those days. The details…they slip away. I had forgotten about the heartbreaking makeshift signs proclaiming a solidarity that proved ever so fleeting, even more fleeting than most of America probably realized. The bomb threats, the phone call from my professor…those I had blanked on as well. Hell, I cannot even remember watching the footage live. I know I did, I must have. We were locked down, we had nothing to do but stare glassy eyed at our TV sets or try our useless phones. But I don’t remember any of it.
The feeling of it I can recall instantly. The weird conflict of wanting to just hide running up against the desire to be out there doing something, doing anything, because, well, damn, those were my cities burning on the television.
I do remember that one plane and how such an innocuous sound could be so staggering, so frightening. I remember chasing down rumors about old friends and classmates who might have been at Ground Zero and finding, thankfully, none were real. And I remember talking to my dad and finding that people he knew and worked with were there and feeling profoundly unequipped to say anything about these people I never met, that my dad probably did not know very well, who when nonetheless found ourselves missing.
In DC, September 11 became a season that blanketed the city. In actuality, the Pentagon is across a sizable body of water from DC. For most residents, there was no real threat at all. What came after was when things really began for us. The bomb threats. The anthrax. The anthrax scares. I was evacuated from where I was interning twice for suspicious packages that, thankfully, came to nothing. People interning for Senators and Representatives had to find new office spaces when the packages they received turned out not to be so empty.
My then girlfriend, now wife, had a roommate who only left the room for class and internship and spent the rest of her time relentlessly writing about her day for what she claimed was going to be a book about living in DC during those days. I look back now and realize she was very likely wrestling with what my DSM-IV refers to as Acute Stress Disorder.
And yet…I loved DC. I loved my time at American. I met my wife and now, ten years later, we have a new baby daughter. I met people who I wish I kept in better touch with me because they were great. Fun, smart, energetic…we went to class everyday and internship everyday despite what had happened, what was happening. We walked past men with guns on our way to Starbucks, we attended basement raves near hotels that let people on to the roof to see the smoldering remains of the Pentagon. I wish September 11 never happened, but I can hardly imagine my life without it. And I imagine I am hardly the only one. For good or for ill, for ten years it has been an event that many, maybe most, of us wove tightly into our clothes, our skin, our souls.
So understand when I say this I mean no disrespect. I am so ready to be done with September 11. I think we should continue to honor and mourn the heroes. I think we should build monuments to their bravery and as an affront to the hateful barbarism of that day. But I am ready to put it in the past. I have no desire for this to become my generation’s Vietnam, not in terms of an intractable war but in terms of it being the cloud that hangs over every election for years. We did a lot right after September 11 and we did a lot wrong. I know this and while you may disagree about what falls on the right and wrong sides of the equation, I imagine most of you do too.
But I don’t want to fight those battles ad nauseum. We lost so much that day, I want to be done feeding that wound. We need to stop pretending that we get the difference between people who are Christian and do terrible things and Christians in general but that we cannot seem to make our minds do the same when it comes to Muslims. We need to stop doing things to make ourselves feel safer when they don’t actually make us safer at all. We need to learn the difference between casting off naiveté and embracing suspicious cynicism.
That’s my small prayer, I suppose. Or hope, if the idea of prayer makes you uncomfortable. That we can mourn without holding on. That we can remember without reliving. That we can stop thinking of the day in the context of horror and start remembering it as a day, a time, of heroes. Because “moving on” is not forgetting. Moving on is realizing that we have as much a responsibility to the living that survived as we do to the brave that did not.
When my daughter, two months tomorrow, asks about September 11, as I am sure she will, I will tell her what happened. We will talk about terrorism and loss and ramifications that echoed for years. Because it is important to be honest about these things. But I will also tell her about college hallways filled with classmates comforting one another despite not knowing each other even a month. I will tell her about giving blood. I will tell her about men and women who ran towards fire and ash and broken concrete. I will tell her about people who tried to do something, anything, because, well, damn, those were our cities.
By Brendan Loy
Depending on your time zone, it is, or soon will be, September 11, 2011 — ten years since the atrocity. Above is a photo of the Jason Dahl memorial in the Ken Caryl section of Littleton. The pilot of United 93 was living in Ken Caryl in September 2001, and there’s a nice little roadside memorial in his honor. I took the girls there this afternoon, and we left flowers and a flag.
Speaking of United 93, you absolutely must read this Washington Post story about the pilots who were tasked with bringing that plane down if necessary.
Anyway… I’ve set up a special homepage for the day, but for those who click through to this post, here are a few links:
• A full account of my memories of September 11, 2001, written up last year for my “Defining Days of the Decade” series.
• My wake-up call from Becky on 9/11.
• My montage of speeches about 9/11 set to the “Battle Hymn of the Republic.”
• The USC Daily Trojan’s online collection of the USC community’s stories of 9/11. I submitted, and they published, an excerpt from my “Defining Days” post — and now I feel very old, as it’s surrounded by accounts of current USC students who were in elementary school on 9/11.
• Photos of NYC on the second anniversary of 9/11, when I shot the “Tribute in Light” picture in the blog’s current masthead.
• Photos of my June 3, 2001 trip to the WTC — exactly 100 days before 9/11.
Never forget.
By Tim Stevens
What follows below the jump is the piece I wrote after September 11th for the Connecticut College Voice. I was in DC at the time, studying at American University for the Semester in Washington Program, and sent this story in to the paper via email.
It ran in the September 14th edition of the Voice, as it was/is a weekly paper. I had my notes, but was unable to find my original file of it amongst my digital archives. But thanks to the Voice and current editor-in-chief Jazmine Hughes, I was able to get my hands on a scan of the paper. It appears here almost exactly as it did there, except for minor grammatical changes and the inclusion of a moment involving a military plane that appeared in my notes but for some reason (probably length) did not make the final copy.
My plan is to reprint this today as a visit to the past, and then to write “September 11, ten years on” on Monday as a look to today and, hopefully a future where it is less raw.
By David K.
With Texas A&M all but gone from the Big XII and Oklahoma threatening movement, the possibility of a Pac-16 is alive again, a lot sooner than most expected. Although the Pac-12 has publicly stated that they’d prefer to stay at 12, it would almost assuredly move to expand if the Big XII fell apart as a result of SEC accepting the Aggies. There is no guarantee that expansion would shake out that way, but the Pac-16 with Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State added is one of the more plausible scenarios.
Of course an expanded Pac would mean redoing the recently created divisions. So how would that shake out? There are a few options.
By Brendan Loy
I’m blogging again over at Weather Nerd. Here’s an excerpt from this morning’s update on Tropical Storm Nate:
Sometimes, in the life of a tropical cyclone, there is a distinct turning point in the evolution of the track forecast, where the computer models suddenly shift toward a new and markedly different solution. When this happens, the National Hurricane Center…generally waits to see a few more model “runs” confirming the new thinking before it fully adopts the new consensus in its official forecast. This memorably happened in 2005 with Hurricane Katrina, when the models shifted early Friday morning toward a solution targeting the New Orleans area, inspiring my “New Orleans in peril” post at midday Friday…eight hours before the NHC actually adopted the track that the models had begun shifting toward almost 24 hours before. …
We may be seeing a similar turning point with Tropical Storm Nate this morning. Yesterday, this storm looked like it was bound for Mexico. But things have changed overnight. This morning, shortly before the National Hurricane Center’s 11am EDT advisory, Charles Fenwick tweeted: “In the Gulf of Mexico, there was a good consensus on Nate heading to Tampico, Mexico. This morning, though, GFDL & HWRF shifted northeast with solutions south of Louisiana and in the middle of the western Gulf of Mexico respectively.” …
The Houston Chronicle’s Eric Berger, in a post titled “The northern Gulf of Mexico is back in play,” elaborates:
Just as it looked like the overnight models were converging on one solution for the track of Tropical Storm Nate, this morning’s models made an almost wholesale change.
Instead of an eventual westerly motion into Mexico, a number of forecast models have switched back to a more northerly movement by late this weekend, bringing Nate toward the northern Gulf of Mexico coast by late Sunday or Monday. …
Critically, if Nate does move northward it will cross over very warm Gulf waters, and would have several days to intensify. This raises the possibility of a major hurricane striking the New Orleans region. …
To be clear, there is no reason to panic about possible threats to specific locales. The forecast can and will change in the coming hours and days. But with the Gulf waters being so warm, and so many vulnerable spots along the coast, this is definitely a situation to watch closely.
Read the whole thing, and stay tuned to Weather Nerd for the latest.
By Brendan Loy
There isn’t much point in blogging the latest conference realignment developments, since they’ll all change in 5 minutes, then change back again. Instead, a sampling of amusing (to me, at least) tweets — extended slightly for the blog format in a few cases — applying Lord of the Rings quotes to Conferencepocalypse. (Credit to Brandon Minich and DocErock on some of these.)
And yes, I did the same thing last summer. They’re still funny! And we have a bunch of new ones! With the various characters in new roles!
“A day may come when the courage of men fails… when we forsake our friends, and break all bonds of fellowship. That day is today!”
“Embrace the power of the superconference, or embrace your own destruction.”
“DeLoss, the enemy is moving. Slive’s forces are massing in the East; his eye is fixed on Columbia. And Oklahoma, you tell me, has betrayed us. Our list of allies grows thin!”
“This evil cannot be concealed by the power of the Longhorn Network. We do not have the strength to withstand both Slive and Scott! Texas cannot stay here.”
Texas A&M: “You think you are wise, Bevo. Yet for all your subtleties, you have not wisdom. Do you think the eyes of the 12th Man are blind?”
“The SEC? what madness drove them in there?”
“By foul craft Slive is breeding an army that can…cover great distance at speed.” #SECspeed
“One does not simply walk into the SEC. There is evil there that does not sleep.”
As A&M consults its Palantir, Silve’s voice booms out: “BUILD ME A TEAM WORTHY OF THE SEC.”
“The enemy has many spies . . . birds . . . tweets . . .”
Big East: “Are you frightened?” Big 12: “Yes.” Big East: “Not nearly frightened enough. I know what hunts you.”
Dan Beebe: “Where is the Husker and the Buffalo? Where is the Aggie that was oy-oy-oy-ing? They have passed like rain on the mountain, like wind in the meadow. The days have gone down in the West, behind the hills, into shadow. How did it come to this?”
“Arise, Riders of Beebe! … Ride now! Ride now! Ride! Ride to ruin, and the world’s ending! DEATH! DEATH! DEATH!!”
“Is there any hope, DeLoss, for the Big 12?” “There never was much hope. Just a fool’s hope.”
Beebe: “My line has ended. A&M has deserted us. OU’s betrayed me. Abandon your posts! Flee, flee for your lives!”
“No tomb for the Big 12. No long, slow sleep of death embalmed. We shall burn, like the heathen conferences of old!”
“Farewell, Iowa State and Baylor. I release you from my conference. Go now and die in what way seems best to you.”
By Brendan Loy
Thunderbolts and lightning (very very frightening)! Photo via @bubbaprog.
College football season started off with a bang — or, more precisely, a loud crack of thunder — with a wild weekend that saw two games (Michigan-Western Michigan and West Virginia-Marshall) called early due to bad weather, and another (Notre Dame-South Florida) last for approximately 83 hours, plenty of time for roughly 26 red-zone turnovers by the Irish (or thereabouts), causing Brian Kelly to wake up the echoes even as Mother Nature shook down the thunder. Elsewhere, USC said au revoir to the Gophers, but without inspiring much confidence for Saturday’s game against the Utes, still less the rest of the season; erstwhile defense powerhouse TCU lost a Old West style shootout at Baylor; Boise State wiped the floor with SEC (it’s a WAR!) contender and virtual home team Georgia; newly independent BYU won at Ole Miss on a late defense touchdown (it’s a WAR!!); defending national champ Auburn nearly lost to Utah Freakin’ State of the WAC (it’s a WAR!!!); Oregon failed, again, to perform well in a big game, losing badly to LSU (it’s a…okay, LSU actually looked quite good); and Oregon State lost to Sacramento Freakin’ State of Division 1-AA (ugh).
In the 3rd annual Living Room Times College Football Pick ‘em Contest, Chris Palm (@chrispalm) and Jacob Sommer (“The Commodore” a.k.a. “Irish ND”) are tied for the lead with 31-4 prediction records. (It’s the second straight year Sommer has led after Week 1.) All three got TCU-Baylor, Notre Dame-South Florida, and Oregon State-Sacramento State wrong. Palm also got LSU-Oregon wrong; Sommer got Colorado-Hawaii wrong.
Four contestants are just a point back: Marty West Paul Freelend (“Have Notebook Will Travel”), David K., @fuegote and @ndtex, all 30-5. Nine others are tied 2 points behind the leaders at 29-6. Complete standings here (visible only to group members, alas).
P.S. Here’s an exit question. True or false: despite their respective outcomes, the USC-Minnesota game provided more cause for long-term concern about the Trojans’ prospects this season than the Notre Dame-South Florida game did for the Irish’s prospects.
I say true. Notre Dame out-gained USF 2-1. By rights, they “should” have won that game, but mistakes got the better of them. The Irish are never going to commit that many turnovers in the red zone again; the law of averages won’t allow it. (Knock on wood.) Cut out that handful of terribly damaging stupid mistakes, and ND is in okay shape. USC, meanwhile, just doesn’t look very good.
I still think the Irish will beat the Trojans on October 22, and will finish with a better record. I stand by my preseason predictions of 9-3 for ND, 8-4 for USC. (Although 8-4 and 7-5 are certainly more in play today than they were on Friday.)
By David K.
Well, it certainly wasn’t a pretty opening week for the Pac-12, with struggles against FCS opponents and a lackluster performance by Oregon in the weekend’s marquee matchup of top 5 programs. Still, it wasn’t all bad, with some impressive individual performances, and solid wins by the Bay Area teams. As I’ll be ranking teams based on performance so far, the first few weeks are likely to see much greater change than later weeks, when we will have a more complete picture of each team (and more head-to-head matchups to consider).
NORTH
1. Stanford (1-0, 0-0 Pac-12)
LW 2
An easy win against a weak opponent. Doesn’t tell us much about the Cardinal, whose game against Duke next week will likely be just as unrevealing. November date with Oregon may be first (and only) real test. Moved up a spot largely due to Oregon’s loss.
2. Oregon (0-1, 0-0)
LW 1
It should have been a clash of titans, instead it was a one-sided win for the LSU Tigers. Oregon didn’t help itself much either, losing the ball four times. Heisman hopeful LaMichael James had one of his weakest performances as a Duck. A close loss would have been enough to keep Oregon on top, but this one wasn’t close.
3. Cal (1-0, 0-0)
LW 5
The Bears looked shaky to start, but recovered quickly to take control of the game against Fresno State. Transfer QB Zach Maynard performed well for Cal. This win, plus weak performances by the rest of the Pac-12 North, helped boost the Bears into 3rd for now.
By David K.
With the first Pac-12 team, new member Utah, set to kick off in under two hours [FRIDAY MORNING UPDATE: The Utes notched the first ever win by a Pac-12 team, 27-10 over Montana State], it’s time for some last-minute Pac-12 power rankings. I’ll be breaking teams down by division this season, like most other bloggers and pundits are doing. I’ll give a brief explanation for each slot. Feel free to agree or criticize in the comments.
NORTH
1. Oregon
The final Pac-10 champion and loser of last year’s BCS title game, the Ducks return 13 starters including QB Darron Thomas and Heisman hopeful RB LaMichael James. If they can avoid distraction from the off-field troubles of the season, particularly those involving agent Willie Lyles, the Ducks look to repeat much of their success from last season, assuming of course they aren’t sidelined by NCAA sanctions before season’s end.
2. Stanford
The other juggernaut of the Pac-12, Stanford’s only blemish last season was a loss in Eugene to the Ducks. The good news is the Cardinal get Oregon at home this season, and face a slate of teams that are unlikely to challenge them, aside from USC and perhaps Notre Dame. A key to the Cardinal’s success will be the performance of Heisman Trophy hopeful QB Andrew Luck, but they are also breaking in a new head coach this season after Jim Harbaugh left for the NFL. [P.S. BY BRENDAN: Stanford is also breaking in three new offensive linesmen.]
3. Washington
The Huskies rallied from a 3-6 season start to win their final 4 games of last season, including a rematch upset of Nebraska in the Dawgs’ first bowl game since 2002. The question is whether 3rd year coach Steve Sarkisian can continue to positive direction for the Huskies against another tough slate of opponents, 6 of whom had 10+ wins last season. The Huskies are breaking in a new QB, but a much improved O-Line and defense could help make up for the inexperience there. The return visit to Nebraska looms large, and the Huskies will face four of the strongest teams in the conference down the stretch (Utah, Stanford, Oregon and USC). There is little margin for error for the Huskies team hoping to return to its position as a power team in the conference and avoid a slide back into the mediocrity of the past decade.
4. Oregon State
The Beavers are one of the hardest teams to predict each year. One game they shine, the next they fizzle. They have produced some stunning upsets (just ask USC) and some inexplicable losses (just ask Washington State). Returning QB Ryan Katz and WR James Rogers will be the players to watch on an offense that returns 8 starters. On the other hand, Rogers’ past problems with injuries may limit his potential impact, and the defense is much shakier. Inexperience and size could be issues for the Beavers.
5. California
Will Jeff Tedford and the Cal bears continue to disappoint, or rebound after last year’s bowl-less season? I’m leaning towards the former. The Bears will be led by new QB Zach Maynard, who transfered from Buffalo after the 2009 season. On top of that, some changes in the offensive staff and playbook could limit the Bears versatility. Adding to the difficulty is a season played, not at home Memorial Stadium which is being renovated this year, but in San Francisco at AT&T Park, a facility they won’t even be practicing in during the week. The Bears could very likely end up in last place in the Pac-12 North by the end of the season.
6. Washington State
Cougar coach Paul Wulff may be on the hottest seat in the conference right now with an abysmal 5-32 record over the last three seasons at WSU. Anything less than a bowl berth is likely going to be the end of the line for the coach, but this could be the Cougar team to save him. QB Jeff Tuel is experienced and skilled and he has some good receivers to help him out. Washington State is helped out by a very winnable slate of games to start the season and a few more down the stretch that gives them plenty of opportunities to get the needed six wins, despite facing both Stanford and Oregon, along with newcomer Utah. It wouldn’t surprise me to see the Cougs reach 6 wins and a bowl by season’s end, likely finishing above both Oregon State and Cal in the process. But until they’ve proven it on the field, they get the #6 spot.
SOUTH
1. USC
Regardless of where the Trojans finish, they are still bowl-ineligible (and ineligible to compete in the inaugural Pac-12 title game) thanks to the idiocracy that is the NCAA, but USC is, as usual, loaded with talent. Games against Utah in week 2 and at Arizona State in week 4 could have huge impacts on the race for the title, even if the Trojan’s can’t officially win it. More good news is that the Trojans will skip regular thorn in the side Oregon State this season. The bad news is they face Oregon and Washington, two teams that they have had little success against in recent years, before closing out the season against UCLA.
2. Utah
Newcomer Utah will get its chance to prove it belongs and has, in my opinion, a legitimate shot at representing the Pac-12 South in the inaugural Pac-12 championship game. An ineligible USC and an ASU team being hampered by injuries provides a key opportunity for the Utes to establish a name for themselves. Getting to miss games against both Pac-12 North contenders Oregon and Stanford also plays to Utah’s advantage. A win in week two against USC in the Pac-12 opener could set the stage for a dominant season and silence Utah’s critics once and for all.
3. ASU
An early presumptive favorite to win the Pac-12 South crown, ASU has been hampered by a number of injuries to key players (QB Steven Threet is out for multiple concussions) and some distractions off the field, particularly those involving the always controversial Vontaze Burfict. However, all may not be lost for the Sun Devils. With USC out of the race, and UCLA and Colorado unlikely to pose a real threat, ASU need only finish ahead of Utah and Arizona to win the division crown, and could do so without a stellar record.
4. Arizona
The Wildcats have never been to the Rose Bowl, and the road to Pasadena has gotten just a bit harder with the switch to divisions and a championship game. While they won’t have to deal with USC as a contender for the top spot this season, they do face the Trojans early on. In fact, after their cupcake opener against Northern Arizona, the Wildcats head to Oklahoma State before returning home to host Stanford and Oregon. A 1-4 start for Mike Stoops and co. is a very real, very likely possibility. The good news is it would mean very little in terms of the race for the division championship, and even with that slow a start, if the Wildcats can keep themselves motivated, can play out down the stretch against a much more winnable slate, much like the one that allowed them to climb into the top tier of the rankings last season. An experienced QB in Nick Foles is a benefit, but the offense is overall very new, especially on the line, which could limit his ability to make plays. Really, it could go any direction for the Wildcats.
5. UCLA
Facing a seemingly do-or-die season for Slick Rick, the Bruins shook things up in the offseason with some coaching changes, including Neuheisel taking over as QB coach and hiring two new coordinators. Recently QB Kevin Prince was named the starter, a move which was not exactly met with enthusiasm, as many were hoping for star recruit Brett Hundley to take the spot. Talent-wise, the Bruins have the pieces, but it remains to be seen whether the coaching staff can inspire and utilize them to actually win games.
6. Colorado
Good news Buffs, the Dan Hawkins era is officially over and you are no longer stuck with Texas calling all the shots. Bad news Buffs, your team is breaking in a new coach, facing a whole new slate of conference foes, and looking at a big shift in offensive style. The Buffaloes return a lot of experienced players and have a chance to prove themselves in their new conference. I’m picking them for last now as a bit of an unknown quantity with a lot of question marks, but Colorado could surprise and move up the ranks. I’d be very surprised, however to see them compete for the top of the division. Simply earning a bowl berth would be a big step in the right direction.
By Brendan Loy
It’s that time of year again… time for the 3nd annual Living Room Times College Football Pick ‘em Contest! It’s free! It’s fun! Join in!
To join the group, click here, then enter Group ID number 20146 and password PANIC. Basic rules:
• We’ll be picking all games involving AP Top 25 teams + all games involving Pac-12 teams + all games deemed “interesting” by Yahoo’s editors.
• No point spreads. We’re picking the games straight-up.
• The deadline is five minutes before each game. Thursday games generally are not included, but Friday games sometimes are. So for instance, this week, for full possible points, you’ll want to make your picks before 5:25 PM MDT Friday! (That said, if you forget to enter your picks before the weekend’s first included game(s), you can still predict the remaining games. Obviously, you’ll get no points for any games that started before you entered your picks, but at least you aren’t shut out for the entire weekend because, say, you forgot about TCU-Baylor.)
• Unlike last year, I don’t presently plan to drop the lowest weekly score. So make sure you enter every week! When signing up, you may want to select the option to have Yahoo! send you a reminder 1 or 2 days before the deadline.
• As per usual, there’s no monetary or tangible prize — just the respect and admiration of your peers, and recognition on Twitter and the blog, like Marty West got in 2010 and Lisa Velte got last year.
Speaking of which: contestants are encouraged, in choosing their “Pick Set Name,” to use either their real name, or a nickname / handle / pseudonym that will be recognizable to other members of the blog / Twitter community.
Once you’ve joined the contest, you’ll be able to access its Yahoo group page here. But first you gotta join! To do that, again, click here, then enter Group ID number 20146 and password PANIC. Good luck!
