By Brendan Loy

I hope you all had a wonderful holiday. I certainly did. And amid the revelry, I hope everyone stopped to remember why we celebrate this day — to honor the sacrifices of the brave men and women who have fought and died for our country and our freedom.

Apropos of that, I had the following exchange with Loyette, paraphrased as accurately as I can from memory, on Sunday night shortly before bedtime. By way of explanation of the punch line at the end, this entire conversation took place with Loyette sitting near the edge of her bed, and me sitting on the floor, in position to catch her if she were to stand up and jump off the bed to me (a favorite pastime of hers). Also, shortly before coming upstairs for bed, she’d been eating ice cream, and just before that, we’d been singing songs and dancing around the living room. Anyway…

LOYETTE: “Daddy, tomorrow, will it be the weekend or the week?” [Editor's note: She asks this exact question almost every single day before bedtime. She and Loyacita love the weekend because, of course, the weekend means Daddy's home. :) ]
BRENDAN: “The weekend. It’s the last day of the three-day weekend. Tomorrow is a holiday! It’s called Memorial Day.”
LOYETTE: “What’s Memorial Day?”
BRENDAN: “Well, [Loyette], Memorial Day is a day when we honor the soldiers who fight* so that we can have freedom. Do you know what ‘freedom’ means?”
LOYETTE: “No.”
BRENDAN: “Well, in some places, people can’t do the things they want to do. Like, they can’t sing, or dance, or eat ice cream.”
LOYETTE: “Or share bananas with their sisters?”
BRENDAN: “Right. Or share bananas with their sisters. They can’t do those things because they don’t have freedom. But we live in America, and in America we have freedom, so we can do things like sing and dance and eat ice cream and share bananas with our sisters, because there are people — soldiers — who fight to make sure we get to keep our freedom. And on Memorial Day, we honor those people. Does that make sense?”
LOYETTE: “Not really. Can I jump to you?”

Heh. I tried again today, en route to the Commerce City Memorial Day Parade (pictured above and below) with the girls. This time, I made an analogy to the climactic battle in Loyette’s favorite movie, Sleeping Beauty, in which Prince Philip fights Maleficent in order to get to Princess Aurora, rescue her, and (as I put it) “give her back her freedom.” Sometimes, I explained, people in real life are mean like Maleficent, and soldiers have to fight them, like Prince Philip does with his Sword of Truth and Shield of Virtue, so the mean people can’t take away other people’s freedom. She still doesn’t really understand, of course — and obviously it’s a horribly simplistic explanation anyway — but you’ve gotta start somewhere…

*Yes, I’m aware that, technically, Memorial Day honors those who have died while fighting — my broader description is more appropriate to Veterans Day. But I’m not about to burden my 3 1/2-year-old with a detailed discussion of the concept of death, on top of trying to explain freedom and war.

By Brendan Loy

Last night, with the Patriot Act’s surveillance and investigative measures due to expire at midnight, and Congress having just passed an extension while President Obama was on a European pub crawl (or, y’know, addressing Parliament, attending the G-8 summit, meeting with Medvedev, strategizing with world leaders about the revolutions in the Middle East… whatever, same difference), President Obama needed to urgently sign the Patriot Act extension bill into law, lest our national security be threatened. (Candidate Obama could not be reached for comment.) But the bill was on the wrong side of the ocean! You’d think maybe it could be faxed or e-mail to him, but apparently not. Instead…

White House aides used a machine called an autopen to “sign” President Obama’s name to the Patriot Act extension … Obama was in France at the G8 summit and directed his staff to apply his signature to the bill. It’s the first time he’s ever “signed” a bill in such a fashion, aides say.

Time was of the essence in signing the Patriot Act extension because the surveillance and investigative measures it renews were to expire at midnight Thursday. Administration officials said an expiration of those authorities for even hours would cause significant problems.

The Constitution, unsurprisingly, makes no mention of autopens or robo-signing. It says that a bill “shall, before it become a Law, be presented to the President of the United States: If he approve he shall sign it, but if not he shall return it.” However, Obama aides point to a 2005 opinion from the Justice Department’s Office of Legal Counsel that concluded that, despite the Constitution’s requirements, a bill need not be physically presented to the president or actually signed by him to become law.

I haven’t read the OLC opinion, but I’m pretty sure this means that, technically, the “autopen” is now the President of the United States. The robot takeover has begun. #PANIC!

By Brendan Loy

In January, dying magazine Newsweek declared Grand Rapids, Michigan to be a “dying city.” Grand Rapids decided to rebut this vile slander by, uh, doing… this:

I love the guy with the Geraldo t-shirt around the 4:30 mark.

Here’s how the project’s Director & Executive Producer, Rob Bliss, explains it:

The Grand Rapids LipDub Video was filmed May 22nd, with 5,000 people, and involved a major shutdown of downtown Grand Rapids, which was filled with marching bands, parades, weddings, motorcades, bridges on fire, and helicopter take offs. It is the largest and longest LipDub video, to date.

This video was created as an official response to the Newsweek article calling Grand Rapids a “dying city.” We disagreed strongly, and wanted to create a video that encompasses the passion and energy we all feel is growing exponentially, in this great city. We felt Don McLean’s “American Pie,” a song about death, was in the end, triumphant and filled to the brim with life and hope.

I’m not entirely convinced Newsweek is wrong. But regardless, that’s pretty awesome.

(Hat tip: Gawker.)

By Brendan Loy

This tweet is getting a ton of attention in the conservative twittersphere right now:

My favorite response:

By Brendan Loy

So say rumors on the Internets.

UPDATE: Here’s the story. Multiple media folks are confirming it.

So, no postseason (again) for USC in 2011-12. Any seniors who wish to transfer can (again) do so and play immediately elsewhere. Only shot at a national title is (again) the AP-only version. And the inaugural Pac-12 South will have just five teams competing for a spot in the conference title game, two of which are Colorado and UCLA. So, basically, three teams. Your move, Arizona, Arizona State and Utah.

P.S. Auburn’s national title remains intact as of this hour, as does Ohio State’s Sugar Bowl title. Also, Jim Tressel is still Ohio State’s coach at last check. Just in case you were wondering.

THURSDAY UPDATE: It’s now official. Here’s the NCAA’s report (PDF). USC responds:

“We respectfully, but vehemently, disagree with the findings of the NCAA’s Infractions Appeals Committee,” USC said in a statement Thursday. “Our position was that the Committee on Infractions abused its discretion and imposed penalties last June that were excessive and inconsistent with established case precedent.”

[President Max] Nikias, in a statement said: “We are extremely disappointed in this result. We are very concerned that the historical value of case precedent and the right to fair process in the NCAA adjudicative process, both in terms of the ability of an institution to defend itself or prove an abuse of discretion on appeal, have been substantially eroded.

“Further, the decisions of the [Committee on Infractions] and [Infractions Appeals Committee] have set a standard that leaves little, if any, room to discipline more egregious violations that will be addressed by the NCAA in the future without irreparably damaging athletic programs across the country.”

That’s what I’ve been saying since the fall. The NCAA is going to have to start handing out “death penalties” if it’s going to be remotely consistent going forward. I’m frankly shocked that the appeals committee didn’t have the foresight to see that. But I suppose I shouldn’t be. Although I originally counseled Trojans to accept the sanctions without whining, it’s subsequently become clear that the NCAA cares not for consistency, has no foresight, and is basically a corrupt and/or incompetent joke of an organization. This just cements that.

Anyway, Nikias added, “Notwithstanding this troubling concern and our grave disappointment, we will look forward to the future.” In other words, the NCAA sucks, but we ain’t suing them.

[Original timestamp 2:10 PM on May 25; Bumped to top. -ed]

P.S. USC A.D. Pat Haden: “If we have to prove an abuse of discretion and there is no standard because you can’t use past precedents, how do you prove an abuse of discretion? I don’t know how you overcome the burden. It’s kind of circular.” Indeed.

Also, Pac-12 commissioner Larry Scott, laying down the fightin’ words:

We join the fans, alumni, staff and leadership of USC in being extremely disappointed with today’s decision. I want to state emphatically that our conference is committed to adhering to the highest ethical standards and compliance with NCAA rules. USC’s new leadership has certainly demonstrated this with its handling of the sanctions and by establishing a new culture of compliance for its athletic programs with its win-by-the-rules approach.

I respect USC’s decision to take the high ground and not pursue any further recourse to the NCAA ruling. At the same time, I fully expect that every NCAA member institution be held to the same high standards. These sanctions, notably the postseason ban, have a devastating effect on current student-athletes, most of whom were in elementary and junior high school at the time of the alleged violations.

To me, that is a source of great frustration and disappointment. Going forward, we can and need to do better in terms of the enforcement process.

Aside from the boldfaced shot across the NCAA’s bow in reference to Auburn and Ohio State, does anyone else sense the unspoken, nascent seed of a notion of big conferences seceding from the NCAA if “we” fail to “do better in terms of the enforcement process”? As a fan of the mid-majors, I obviously don’t want that to happen, but the NCAA may be writing its own obituary if it keeps this up.

By Brendan Loy

Heh. (Via MelissaTweets.)

This is why, although I like Huntsman, I see him as having basically no chance of winning the nomination.

By Brendan Loy

Paul Ryan says Democratic distortion and demagoguery of his Medicare plan is to blame for a special-election loss in a New York congressional district yesterday, which is being touted as a sign of a building Dem comeback from their 2010 shellacking.

I have mixed feelings about this. On the one hand, the Ryan plan is genuinely worth of criticism — even harsh criticism — on a variety of fronts, most notably that it forces the poor, the elderly (well, the future elderly) and the needy to bear a disproportionate share of the burden for getting our fiscal house in order, while simultaneously lowering taxes on the wealthy in service of the Republican fantasy that such tax cuts somehow don’t add to deficits, which, of course, they do. All serious analysts know that we need to cut spending and increase revenue — not either/or, but both/and — in order to solve our budget crisis. By that test, Ryan’s plan is fundamentally unserious.

On the other hand, Ryan’s plan had the potential to be the opening salvo in a serious conversation, an actual adult dialogue about this issue. If the Democrats respond by attacking its flaws — and, again, there’s nothing wrong with doing so harshly, to the extent those flaws are worthy of harsh criticism, so long as the harsh criticism is properly targeted — while offering a viable alternative that spreads the pain more equitably but still inflicts the necessary pain, that would be one thing. If they respond with ruthless, demagogic “Mediscare” tactics, without offering an honest, viable alternative, that’s another thing entirely. And if they succeed in the latter approach, and Washington once again learns the lesson that entitlements are (still) the third rail of American politics, that’s a disaster, and we’re well and truly doomed.

I haven’t followed the politics of this too closely in recent months, but my sense is that the Democratic response so far has a lot more of the latter (demagogic) approach than the former (responsible) one. And frankly, I’m not sure what political incentive they have to do otherwise. As with the debt ceiling and a wide variety of other issues, the shallowness and ignorance of the average voter creates an almost irresistible temptation for politicians of all stripes to misbehave in this fashion when the politics of an issue tilt in their favor. The end result is that we become increasingly ungovernable as a nation — incapable of tackling and solving big problems whose solutions require painful choices — as these demagogic techniques seemingly get more and more sophisticated and effective. In other words, we move closer to the event horizon.

Maybe some sort of grand bargain will simultaneously defuse the GOP’s feckless demagoguery on the debt ceiling/taxation and the Dems’ feckless demagoguery on Medicare, putting us on a marginally more sustainable course without first jumping off a cliff. Maybe the Democrats will listen to Bill Clinton, who, while harshly criticizing the Ryan plan today, also said, “I’m afraid the Democrats will draw the conclusion that because Congressman Ryan’s proposal is not the right one, that we shouldn’t do anything. I completely disagree with that.” (Of course, it’s easy to say we should do something; it’s harder to specify precisely what.)

Or maybe the Dems will take the easy course, and President Obama will go down in history as the president who, on the brink of a national fiscal crisis, won re-election with the age-old “Mediscare” trick, thus effectively taking meaningful entitlement reform off the table for an indeterminate period of time, once again kicking the can down America’s ever shortening road to ruin. If so, f*** him.

I still think Obama’s heart is in the right place on this. But in the end, unless his actions prove me right, I don’t give a s*** where his heart is. There is no excuse for a leader failing to lead. Well, no, that’s not right — there are plenty of excuses, but we must be steadfast in ignoring them, because unless we demand leadership of our leaders, even (or especially) when it’s difficult to exercise it, why do we bother with any of this?

As I’ve previously made clear, I’m already greatly unimpressed with Obama’s approach to the fiscal crisis, and profoundly uncomfortable with his apparent strategy of delaying meaningful entitlement reform until his second term. One reason for my discomfort is that if, in the mean time, the Democrats achieve a great political victory next year by relentlessly demagoguing entitlement reform (albeit a flawed vision of it), I’m incredibly skeptical that they’ll be able to suddenly shift gears and start governing responsibly on the issue. Even if Obama wants to do that, it may again prove “politically infeasible,” and he’ll have to “delay” it again. At which point I won’t be uncomfortable or skeptical, but apoplectic. For now, I reserve final judgment. But I am concerned.

By Brendan Loy

This afternoon, eleven months to the day after I got my first iPhone, I broke it:

D’OH!!! #PANIC!!!

I was listening to a tornado coverage on an Oklahoma radio station, KRMG, via TuneIn Radio, when my earbuds’ cord got caught on something and, when I made a sudden movement, the iPhone went flying out of my hand and landed 2 or 3 feet away, and maybe 4 feet down, on the blacktop of the parking lot, face-down. BOOM.

Thankfully, it’s insured via a rider on my homeowner’s policy, so if all goes well, I’ll be able to replace it for just a $50 deductible. Still, what a pain in the butt.

P.S. It still works, by the way!

By Brendan Loy

Now that the Generic Republican is officially running, I’m thinking he needs a slogan that truly reflects his exciting identity. Here are some of the ideas I’ve come up with:

• Pawlenty 2012: Adequate for America
• Pawlenty 2012: Less Frightening Than The Various Alternatives
• Pawlenty 2012: We Are The Ones We Have Been Vaguely Waiting For, Sort Of
• Pawlenty 2012: In Your Heart, You Know He’s Alright
• Pawlenty 2012: Mediocrity We Can Believe In
• Pawlenty 2012: Bland Over Blue

What say you, O Internet masses? Any better ideas?

On a more serious note, I’ve been pondering my GOP nomination odds since I posted them in a comment Sunday night, and I think I may be underestimating Romney’s chances a bit. I have Multiple-Choice Mitt with a 22% of winning, well behind T-Paw’s 33%, based on the notion that Romney’s manifest flaws and his sordid past will prove too much to overcome, and Pawlenty (who presently barely registers in the polls, whereas Mitt has a low plurality lead) will eventually rise to the top, given the absence of viable alternatives (no Daniels, etc.). But it occurs to me that, while Pawlenty is clearly the Generic Republican, Romney is the Default Republican — the candidate who people just sort of assume is the front-runner, and who is liable to get a decent baseline of support from relatively low-information voters unless and until somebody else catches fire. (And really, is it even possible to imagine Tim Pawlenty “catching fire”?) Some years, the Default Republican and the Generic Republican are the same person — think Bob Dole — but this year they’re definitely not. Looking at Romney vs. Pawlenty as Default Republican vs. Generic Republican is a pretty useful framing of the race, I think.

Anyway, Romney’s status as the Default Republican potentially matters a lot, in general but especially in one specific, plausible scenario: if the need arises to rally around an anti-Bachmann or anti-Palin (or anti-Santorum??), and Pawlenty’s campaign hasn’t taken off yet, Romney would be the logical hold-your-nose-and-vote-for-someone-who-isn’t-crazy choice. Basically, as I think about it, Pawlenty really, really needs to win Iowa, so he can use the momentum boost (a la John Kerry) to suddenly vault to the front of the pack. If, instead, an unelectable far-right candidate wins Iowa, it’s very possible that Romney’s superior name recognition and poll numbers — and the #PANIC!!! of the GOP’s non-crazy wing — would allow the Default Republican to become “inevitable” before the Generic Republican ever has a chance to really catch on.

Oh, and also: Pawlenty has a money problem. Romney doesn’t. That matters, too.

In light of this, I think I’d revise my odds to something like:

Pawlenty 28%
Romney 27%
Bachmann 10%
Perry 8%*
Palin 6%**
Huntsman 5%
Cain 4%
Gingrich 2%
Other 10%

*Assumes a roughly 20-25% chance he runs.
**Assumes a roughly 50% chance she runs.

Compare and contrast with Intrade, which I think is slightly undervaluing Palwenty and Bachmann, and waaay overvaluing Huntsman, who I personally like but can’t imagine winning the nomination. Also, although I don’t specifically call out Jeb Bush on the above list (he’s subsumed within the 10% for “Other”), Intrade’s 0.3% odds for Jeb winning the nomination seem like a bargain to me. He very likely won’t run — but if he did, he’d have a helluva good shot.

(Apropos of which, if Perry jumps in, he becomes an instant front-runner on my list, and Pawlenty’s chances are shot to hell. If Palin jumps in, she and Bachmann roughly switch places.)

By Brendan Loy

Harold Camping, the nutjob blasphemer fundamentalist evangelical preacher and radio host whose prediction of a May 21 Rapture launched a thousand snarky tweets, isn’t backing down in the face of the…uh…evident lack of a Rapture over the weekend. Instead, he’s doubling down!

Camping says the world will still end on October 21, as he’s predicted all along. Originally, he said there would be a five-month period of Tribulations in between the Rapture (May 21) and the Apocalypse (October 21). But now he thinks everything is going to happen all at once: Rapture, Tribulations, Apocalypse. Boom. “The great earthquake and rapture and the universe melting in fervent heat will be happening on the last day – October 21 2011. It’s all going to happen on the last day.”

But wait — what about May 21, this past Saturday? What happened? Well, Camping says the Second Coming and Day of Judgment did happen on Saturday; it just took a different form than expected. He explains:

We were convinced that on May 21 God would return here in a very physical way by bringing a great earthquake and ushering in the final five months of the day of judgement and the fact is when we look at it spiritually, we find he did come. …

On May 21 2011 we didn’t feel or see any difference in the world but we know from the Bible that God brought judgement day to bear on the whole world – and it will continue right up until October 21 2011 when the whole world will be destroyed. …

When you study the Bible, you’re always learning. We had all of our dates correct. But God had not opened our eyes yet to the fact that May 21 was a spiritual coming – not a physical coming. … We didn’t understand the spiritual meaning of May 21.

So, why did God change plans, and decide to compress the Rapture and Apocalypse into a single fiery day of reckoning on October 21? Camping has a theory:

The great earthquake didn’t happen on May 21 because no-one will be able to survive it for more than a few days or let alone five months to suffer God’s wrath because everything will be levelled and destroyed after that earthquake and there will be no food or water to keep everyone alive.

The Bible tells us that Christ has no pleasure in the death of the wicked. God is a very compassionate God and while the law of God demands that there has to be punishment it does not mean God is going to punish, and punish, and punish, and punish.

God hadn’t thought about the implications of the great earthquake before, I guess. Hey, the Dude’s got a lot on his mind, cut him some slack!

Anyway, the October 21 Rapture/Apocalypse prediction is an intriguing one for me, because, if all goes as planned (in my life, not in Camping’s delusions theology), I’ll be flying from Denver to Chicago that day, in order to attend the USC-Notre Dame game in South Bend the next day, October 22 — the first night game in 21 years at Notre Dame Stadium, and my first time back since 2006. The trip is my 30th birthday present from Becky, and I can’t wait.

But, alas, I guess this means I’ll never get to see that game, because the “universe will melt in fervent heat” before the Irish and Trojans ever get to take the field. D’oh!

This leads me to one inescapable conclusion, well expressed by former “Boi From Troy” Scott Schmidt on Twitter:

Heh.

On the bright side, if the timing is right, maybe I’ll get an awesome view of the Rapture from the airplane; I’ll have to be sure to get a window seat, and watch for Ascenders passing through our cruising altitude on their way to Heaven. Who knows, maybe I’ll even get a front-row seat to the Apocalypse, whatever that would look like from above.

Oh, and one more bright side: no more #PANIC about the implications of turning 30, nine days after the Apocalypse! ;)

By David K.

Remember how much fun it was last year watching the shakeup of the college conferences? The anticipation of which teams would or wouldn’t move, and to where? The speculation on when it would all end? The talk of superconferences completely reshaping the landscape of major college football?

Well, EA Sports does, which is why the upcoming edition of NCAA Football will allow players to totally reshape conferences as they see fit during Dynasty mode. For those not familar, Dynasty mode allows the player (or players) to play the game over the course of multiple seasons, including recruiting and improving players, leading teams to bowls and championships, even advancing from one school to the next (riding the coaching carousel). Now, you’ll be able to not only manipulate the conference alignments, but also bowl setups as well, including BCS auto-qualifying status (for instance, as Kirk Herbstreit suggests, you could pull the Big Least’s AQ spot).

Want Texas to go independent? You can do that. Want to see what the Pac-16 would be like? You can do that. Wish Notre Dame would finally join the Big Ten? You can do that. How about trying out the zipper divisions for the Pac-12? You can do that. Heck, you could even get really crazy and completely re-align everyone into geographical conferences that would pair Boise State with Oregon and Washington, or Ohio State with Marshall and Western Michigan.

Maybe the next version will include media rights negotiations!

By Brendan Loy

While we were all joking about the Rapture, a real-life calamity of apocalyptic proportions (on a local scale, anyway) struck Joplin, Missouri, which was devastated yesterday by a huge, powerful tornado that is already being blamed for 89 deaths. The photos of the utter destruction are stunning, reminiscent of last month’s Alabama tornadoes. It seems almost certain that the ultimate death toll will be well in triple digits, again.

Joplin was previously best known to this blog as the place where Becky and I almost stayed on the night of the USC-Oklahoma title game in 2005, only to leave for a neighboring town because the Joplin Motel 6 “didn’t get ABC” due to a cable war. I wonder if the Motel 6 survived the hellstorm? We passed through Joplin again in May and August 2006. Anyway, thoughts and prayers are with the poor people of that devastated town.

By David K.

Brendan is probably too busy crying in a corner somewhere to post this update, so it’s left up to me to break the news that his favorite GOP Presidential candidate, Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, has decided against a 2012 Presidential run. Reportedly, his wife and children were not in favor of the idea. No word on whether Daniels was simply too disappointed about not being raptured.

UPDATE BY BRENDAN: I am indeed disappointed. Here is Politico’s rundown on what happened. It’s really a shame that questions about Cheri Daniels’s fitness as a wife and mother, which — unlike issues in a candidate’s personal life that possibly reflect on his “character” or “judgment” — aren’t even arguably relevant to the candidate’s fitness for office, helped prevent this good man from seeking the presidency. But there it is.

In keeping with Nate Silver’s analysis, I’m now back to thinking that I’ll need to support either Generic Republican (Pawlenty) or the Republican John Kerry (Romney) in the primaries, in order to stop Palin/Bachmann from sniffing presidential power. Ugh. (Of course I’d love to see Huntsman get the nomination, but I can’t see that happening; unlike Daniels, he’s too much of a RINO.)

UPDATE #2 BY BRENDAN: On a related note, Tim Pawlenty is officially in the race (no longer just “exploring”), and he’s announced it with… a generic campaign video! Featuring generic uplifting music! Generic promises of straight talk and “courage”! Generic shots at Obama! Generic folksy dropping of the “g” at the end of the phrase “It’s not workin’!” A generic recounting of his generic blue-collar town background! And a climactic statement so generic — “I know the American dream, because I’ve lived it” — that I’m surprised it didn’t cause this ad to collapse on itself in some sort of quantum singularity of endless, inescapable genericness!

“I’m Tim Pawlenty, I’m the Generic Republican, and I’m running for president! Vote for me, because, meh!”

Actually, it’s a rather good video. But I can’t help making fun.

[Original timestamp 12:11 AM on 5/22. Bumped to top. -ed.]

By Brendan Loy

Where were you on the day the world didn’t end?

The above picture was taken out my window at precisely 6:00 PM Saturday, when the Rapture was scheduled to hit the Mountain Time Zone, airlifting the Saved to Heaven. As you can see, there is a distinct lack of people ascending into the sky.

Harold Camping was wrong. I know — I, too, am shocked, shocked.

If you want to read an alternate-universe account of what would have happened Saturday if the Rapture had actually occurred, this blog is pretty excellent. I read every post, and enjoyed it thoroughly.

I also rather enjoyed Saturday’s New York Daily News front page:

And I enjoyed, perhaps a bit too much, all the ridiculous Twitter humor surrounding the non-Rapture over the last few days. Like this tweet:

Heh. Anyway, to memorialize this non-event for posterity, after the jump I’ve copied a bunch of tweets — mine and others’ — from Friday afternoon/evening, Saturday, and Sunday morning (picking up where my last post left off).

P.S. But first! I totally forgot to include this awesome, and apropos, Johnny Cash song in my previous post:

Okay, on with the tweets:

Continue reading »

By Brendan Loy

If you haven’t heard, the Rapture is coming on Saturday.

Specifically, the Rapture is coming at 6:00 PM local time on Saturday. (Apparently, God respects time zones!) So it’ll start in Kiribati and sweep westward across the globe, I guess. Some folks are planning Rapture Parties. Others are making contingency plans for their pets. (No, really.)

Meanwhile, those of us in the ranks of the Unsaved are getting ready for… nothing to happen. Or, just possibly, getting ready to witness the spectacle of our Saved compatriots being suddenly sucked up into the Great Fairy Story in the Sky, leaving us heathens here on Earth to deal first with the FlashForward-like aftermath of the Rapture itself, followed by the coming Apocalypse, presided over by President Hillary Clinton (c’mon, you know she’s arranged with God, or Satan if necessary, that Obama, Biden, Boehner and Inouye will all be Raptured).

Personally, I’m mostly just excited for the beer & broads party I’m going to throw on Sunday for my good tweet-friend Zach, a devout Mormon, who has agreed with my suggestion that, if the Rapture happens, thus disproving the tenets of his faith (Mormons don’t believe in the Rapture), it’s time to live it up.

Anyway, as you can tell, I’ve been having some fun with this on Twitter, as have many folks. For posterity — you know, so after the Rapture happens, I can remember how I foolishly made fun of it beforehand — I just thought I’d share a few of my tweets about it…

UPDATE: On a related note, Salon ponders scenarios in which Newt Gingrich can become the GOP nominee. Possibly the most plausible:

The Rapture does happen this weekend, but only Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty, Mitch Daniels, Michele Bachmann, Sarah Palin, Chris Christie, and Jeb Bush ascend to heaven.

In this scenario, most of the GOP candidates and would-be candidates will be in the clouds with Jesus. Gingrich, a recent convert to Catholicism, probably takes an Amillennial view of Revelations, and will remain on Earth with the sinners. He’ll still have to defeat Tea Party favorite Herman Cain, who may or may not be a charming antichrist figure, but Gingrich will probably be able to take advantage of the fact that most Tea Party-affiliated Republican primary voters will have already raptured.

Heh. More of my Rapture tweets (including some new ones added Friday morning) after the jump.

Continue reading »

By Brendan Loy

The biggest reason to either scrap or overhaul the BCS is to prevent the nearly annual ritual (only exceptions in the last decade: 2002 and 2005) of some team having a very legitimate claim that it should have had a title shot. But the second-biggest reason is to stop incentivizing scheduling fiascos like this.

ESPN has ranked the “toughest” non-conference schedules in the SEC, and #1 and #2 (LSU and Georgia) are respectable, each featuring one elite opponent (Oregon, Boise), one respectable BCS foe (West Virginia, Georgia Tech), one terrible I-A team (Western Kentucky, New Mexico State) and one I-AA team (Northwestern State, Coastal Carolina). They also feature one road game and one neutral game apiece (although Boise-Georgia in Atlanta is stretching the definition of “neutral,” but Boise’s really good, so I’ll give the Bulldogs a pass on that). These are not world-beating schedules, given that they are 50% throwaway games, but at least they’re respectable.

But look at the schedule that’s ranked #3 on the list: the third-toughest non-conference schedule in the SEC:

Arkansas: Sept. 3 – Missouri State; Sept. 10 – New Mexico in Little Rock; Sept. 17 – Troy; Oct. 1 – Texas A&M in Arlington, Texas

Seriously? Seriously?!? And this isn’t just a problem of poor ranking by ESPN. The schedules really do get worse from there.

Look, I know the SEC is the best football conference in the country. I know it’s won 836 consecutive national championships, or something like that. I know it’s really hard to get through the SEC schedule undefeated. (It’s also really hard to get through the Pac-10 schedule undefeated — even harder now that it’s the Pac-12 — and the same goes for at least the Big 12 and Big Ten. But I digress.)

But come on. The league’s third-toughest schedule is Missouri State, Troy, New Mexico (all at home) and Texas A&M (neutral)?!? That’s absolutely pathetic. I realize A&M is supposed to be pretty good in 2011-12, but give me a break. Oh, and if you’re wondering who’s #4:

Ole Miss: Sept. 3 – Brigham Young; Sept. 10 – Southern Illinois; Oct. 1 – at Fresno State; Nov. 12 – Louisiana Tech

How are we supposed to have any idea how good the SEC actually is — other than simply resting on their laurels from prior years, which is exactly what these teams are (quite rationally) doing — if virtually NOBODY in the league plays ANYBODY of any significance?

As much as I enjoy making fun of the SEC for this, it’s a huge structural problem, because they’re acting on perfectly rational incentives in doing this. This has got to be fixed.

By Brendan Loy

Much ink is being spilled today over Stephen Hawking’s comment in an interview with The Guardian that “I regard the brain as a computer which will stop working when its components fail. There is no heaven or afterlife for broken down computers; that is a fairy story for people afraid of the dark.”

So… is he right?

As a fairly scientifically-minded person not predisposed to take things on faith, this is a question I’ve wrestled with for a long time. Actually, I can be more specific than that. It’s a question I’ve wrestled with since Mrs. Duetsch’s World History I class, my freshman year in high school, going on 16 years ago. Mind you, I went to public school, this was a history class, and Mrs. Duetsch wasn’t teaching religion (or its absence). Not at all. She was straightforwardly teaching the early part of the history of human civilization — the ancient Mesopotamians, the ancient Egyptians, etc. And of course, as part of learning the histories of those ancient societies, you learn about their religious beliefs.

Up until that point, I knew almost nothing about religions other than a handful of flavors of Christianity, and (vaguely) Judaism. I knew, of course, that other religions existed, and had existed throughout the history of humanity, but I’d never really been exposed to them in any level of detail. And now suddenly, I started learning about all these strange, quirky, oddball beliefs that these ancient peoples had — most notably about the afterlife, and what it takes to get there. And I thought to myself, “Isn’t that funny? Isn’t that odd?” And: “They sure did go through a lot of trouble to convince themselves of this elaborate afterlife they believed in, and to set up all sorts of rituals about how you get there.”

And then came the critical follow-up. I thought, “Wait a minute. Wouldn’t they think the same thing about us? And why shouldn’t they?” Is it really so much less quirky, less odd, to believe that Jesus Christ died on a cross to redeem mankind and that, thanks to Him, we go to Heaven if we live virtuous lives (and/or repent for our sins)? Or that there’s a Messiah who hasn’t yet come, but that He will someday? On what basis should I be inclined to suspect that those objectively silly-sounding notions are any more likely to be true than the silly-sounding beliefs of these various ancient peoples?

Most importantly, I thought, why doesn’t my insight* about the afterlife apply equally to us? Isn’t the simplest explanation for all these competing views about the afterlife simply that we all really, really want to believe there’s an afterlife? Isn’t the infinite capacity of human invention, motivated by an intense desire to believe that we don’t simply cease to exist when we die, by far the most likely explanation for all the varied beliefs about the afterlife? In the absence of a compelling reason to suspect that one set of beliefs is more right than the others, isn’t the simplest answer that they’re all wrong, that there is no afterlife, that we mortals just invented the concept entirely out of whole cloth?

Basically, unbeknownst to Mrs. Duetsch or anyone else in class, World History I made me an agnostic. And that’s where I’ve been ever since.

I don’t know where or when I first heard the Voltaire quote, “If God did not exist, it would be necessary to invent him,” but that was basically the insight I arrived at independently, except substitute “the Afterlife” for “God.” (Whether there’s some higher organizing power in the Universe that could reasonably be called “God” is, for me, a separate question.) And I truly believe that. If there were no afterlife, we humans would surely believe that there is one anyway. (Well, most of us would.) The motivations to invent the idea are too obvious, too utterly compelling: first and foremost the overwhelming reluctance to believe that everything simply ends when we die (and, perhaps even more powerfully, when those we love die), but also the desire to create incentives to live a virtuous life, even when nobody’s watching. We want to believe that the unfairly maligned will have an eternal reward, and that those who escape justice in this world will find it in the next. Of course we want to believe that. Whether it’s true or not, we would want to believe it.

But does that prove it’s not true? Not necessarily. Occam’s razor, in my view, suggests that there is no afterlife. I might even say strongly suggests. But Occam’s razor isn’t a law; it doesn’t posit that the simplest explanation is always right. Just that it tends to be right. So it’s certainly still possible that, although we would believe in Heaven even if it were a “fairy story,” it just so happens that it’s not a “fairy story”: it actually exists, conveniently enough! That’s possible. I can’t disprove that, any more than I can prove it. And so I remain agnostic on the question, and continue to cross my fingers and hope that Hawking is wrong — and continue to say things like “Rest in Peace,” and to reference Heaven when people die, earnestly hoping in my heart that those words aren’t empty — even as a substantial portion of me suspects that Hawking is probably right.

(This has been your Living Room Times Religion/Philosophy Corner entry for the day. We now return you to your regularly scheduling political flame wars, already in progress.)

*I use the term “my insight” very loosely. I realize that this is by no means an earth-shattering idea. It’s something that countless others have thought of, and have articulated far better than me. I only say “my insight” because, at age 13 or 14, I came to this idea independently, not triggered by reading any great thinkers on the matter, nor by hearing a pithy quote like Voltaire’s “it would be necessary to invent him” or Marx’s “opiate of the masses,” but rather simply by learning about ancient religions and then making some logical leaps from there. And yet in the years since, despite reading all sorts of interesting and insightful commentaries on the matter, and despite (I hope!) maturing intellectually, I’ve never been able to really meaningfully expand on that initial “insight.” I still don’t feel I have a solid answer to the question, and I doubt I ever will.

By Brendan Loy

Gloria Borger quotes an unnamed “irritated ally” of Newt Gingrich as saying: “He uses inflammatory language no matter what he is talking about. Why can’t he express a thought in a calm, rational way?” Heh.

P.S. And now… Rick Perry for President? Nate Silver thinks he might be the favorite if he were to run.

By Brendan Loy

Yesterday, the federal government hit the debt limit, and the Treasury Department started instituting “extraordinary measures” — which waste taxpayers’ money — to buy a few more months for Congress to dither, grandstand and demagogue, instead of authorizing the issuance of debt that is mathematically necessary in order to spend the money that Congress has already ordered the Treasury Department to spend.

Obviously, Congress’s actions in this regard are completely indefensible as a matter of policy and/or logic. Even if Paul Ryan’s budget plan became law tomorrow, the debt limit would need to increase, and substantially! So there is no possible intellectual justification for the notion of not increasing it. And of course, if you can’t intellectually justify not doing X, then “we’re not going to do X unless you do Y” is not a legitimate bargaining position. (It might be an effective bargaining position, in much the same way that “I’m going to kill your family unless you do Y” might be an effective position, but it’s not a legitimate one.) The time for Congress to argue about the debt is when it’s passing taxation and spending bills that wholly determine the level of borrowing necessary to run the government. Making a scene about the debt when the ceiling approaches, as Democrats (including Senator Obama) have done before, and as Republicans are doing now, is pure political theater, not an actual position that can be defended in any way, shape or form.

Continue reading »

By Brendan Loy

Hot on the heels of the big Huck-a-no, Donald Trump has announced that he’s not running for president either. Next up on the I’m-not-running announcement circuit: Palin? (Please?)

Hopefully Mitch Daniels bucks the trend, and soon. (Run, Mitch, run!) If not, with Romney imploding over his sordid past, and all the other candidates not really very credible in the final analysis (a Mormon RINO from Utah, a crazy-eyed crazy person from Minnesota, a washed-up former House speaker whose inability to stay on-message would make Joe Biden blush, a one-note social conservative Catholic who lost his last election by a gazillion points and is the victim of an embarrassing Internet meme, a pizza CEO who nobody’s ever heard of, a libertarian former governor of New Mexico who nobody’s ever heard of, and, yes, Tom Jones Ron Paul), the Generic Republican may win the nomination by forfeit.

By the way, here is Nate Silver’s take on the state of the race in Iowa, post-Huckabee. (This was before Trump’s announcement, though Silver ranked him last in the “third tier” anyway.) The scariest line in the piece: “Iowa is almost certainly a must-win for Michele Bachmann of Minnesota. … But she is sufficiently skilled politician that a victory there could give her a plausible chance at the nomination.” #PANIC!!!

By Brendan Loy

The second-to-last Space Shuttle launch went off without a hitch this morning. Rep. Gabby Giffords was in attendance as her husband, Mark Kelly, commander of STS-134, and the rest of Endeavour’s final crew rocketed into orbit. Spaceflight Now has complete coverage.

The most amazing view of the launch comes from Stephanie Gordon, a.k.a. @Stafmara, who tweeted this photo and this photo of the launch as seen from her airplane window, on a flight from New York to Palm Beach. Here’s a video she took:

Here are some more typical launch shots, Creative Commons-licensed pics from Flickr, by Lauren Mitchell (the two photos immediately below) and Robyn Pollman (far below).

I may get a chance to see the Shuttle myself on Memorial Day, May 30. If the flight plan doesn’t change, Endeavour will undock from the International Space Station at 9:53 PM MDT Sunday night, May 29. Roughly 7 1/2 hours later, from 4:19 to 4:26 AM Monday, the ISS will fly over Denver, with the Shuttle very close by. As I’ve said before: “Trust me: even if you’re not into dorky stuff like Iridium flares, this is well worth a trip outside at the proper time, if the sky is clear.” The sight of “two distinct, bright dots, moving briskly across the evening sky in tandem — two unmistakable beacons of the human presence in space” is “a really neat thing to see.” And this being the second-to-last chance ever to see them, I will totally get out of bed early on a holiday to watch them, if the schedule stays on course and the sky looks likely to be clear.

You can use Heavens-Above to check the specific viewing conditions for your location. If you’re in the U.S., just click hereand enter the name of your city or town, then select it from the resulting list of locales. (If you’re outside the U.S., select your country here and then follow the same steps.) On the screen that follows, click on “10 day predictions for: ISS.” First, check and see if you have any visible flyovers tomorrow evening, May 17 or early Wednesday morning, May 18, before docking at 4:15 AM MDT. (We don’t have any of those here in Denver.) Then, click “Next” up near the top right corner (to look at the next 10 days), and look for a morning flyover on May 30.

P.S. You can also look for flyovers at any other point during the mission, including when they’re docked together. But unless you have powerful binoculars, the ISS and Shuttle docked together just look like a single point of light, not distinct dots. So while you know intellectually that you’re looking at two distinct spacecrafts, you can’t actually tell. By contrast, when they’ve just undocked or are just about to dock, you can see it with your own eyes, and it’s awesome.

P.P.S. The final Shuttle mission, STS-135, flown by Atlantis, is scheduled to launch July 12. Who knows — we might be having a baby that day.

By Brendan Loy

At Coors Field with Becky & the girls. Awesome seats.

UPDATE: Well, that didn’t end well. But we had fun! Highlight: dancing with Loyette to “Heyyy baby! (Ooh! Aah!) I wanna kno-oh-oh-ow! If you’ll be my girl.” Oh, and Loyacita repeatedly sticking her finger in my beer and then licking it off. (#PANIC?)

By Brendan Loy

Following on the heels of our first and second baby pools, it’s time to collect your guesses about the birth of Baby Girl Loy #3 (blog nickname TBD).

Remember, the baby is due Friday, July 8. The deadline to enter this Baby Pool is one week from today, 7:00 PM MDT next Friday (May 20). Just leave a comment with the following stats:

• DATE of birth: _________________
• TIME of birth (Mountain Time): _________________
• WEIGHT at birth, in pounds and ounces: _________________
• LENGTH at birth, in inches: _________________

Feel free to throw in a BLOG NICKNAME suggestion, too, if you’re so inspired. You may want to review the criteria, and add the criterion that the name should complement Loyette and Loyacita — but not look too visually similar to either of them (this is the problem with “Loyelle,” which I otherwise like a lot). You’ve already made some good suggestions, but we’re still undecided. (Oh – and let me just preemptively rule out “Bin Loyden.”)

Hell, you can even make a REAL NAME suggestion if you like. We’re still thinking on that, too. Heh. We won’t reveal it here, but y’all can still propose ideas! :)

Anyway, back to the Baby Pool rules. Weight and height guesses with decimal points will be rounded off — to the nearest ounce in the case of weight, to the nearest quarter-inch in the case of height. Likewise, any time guesses containing seconds will be rounded off to the nearest minute (you’re a bunch of nerds, so I know somebody’s gonna do it).

The winner will be whomever is closest in time to the exact day, hour, and minute of birth. In the unlikely event of a tie, the tiebreaking categories will be weight and length (weight is the first tiebreaker, length is the second tiebreaker).

I’ll also declare a separate “weight and length” winner, with weight as the primary category of competition, and length as a tiebreaker.

Regarding the baby’s July 8 due date… that’s the very same date that Loyacita was due, two years ago. She was actually born on July 13. This time around, though, it’s highly unlikely the baby would be born after the 12th (trust me on this). Early on the 13th would probably be the absolute latest, if there were to be a really long labor (but Becky’s first two labors were reasonably quick, knock on wood). Bastille Day or later ain’t happening, so don’t bother with those guesses. :)

Other key dates you may want to consider: Becky’s birthday is June 14; there’s a Full Moon on June 15; Father’s Day is June 19; Ted and Ginny arrive in town to help out with the new baby on June 24; there’s a New Moon on July 1; Becky’s sister and brother-in-law and our two nieces will be visiting Denver from roughly July 3 to July 7; and Independence Day is July 4 (duh). I mention the latter date because we’ve got a lot of family members born either on holidays or on their “eves”: Becky on Flag Day, Loyette on New Year’s Eve, and me on the day before Halloween (and if you want to include the prior generation, my dad on Valentine’s Day).

As for times and other vitals… FWIW, Becky went into labor with Loyette in the wee hours on her exact due date (December 31, 2007), and gave birth to a 7 pound, 14 ounce, 21 inch baby at 2:13 PM. With Loyacita, Becky was induced in the morning of July 13, 2009 (five days after her due date), and an 8 pound, 9.7 ounce, 19.75 inch baby was born at 2:41 PM.

Previous winners of our baby pools are Josh Rubin and Mike Marchand (with Neil Waechter winning the weight/height pool last time around).

So again, leave your guesses in comments!

By Brendan Loy

The New York Times issues the nerdiest correction ever. LOL! (Hat tip: dcl.)