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Posts from 2010 July 22

By Brendan Loy (Twitter/FriendFeed)

Where have I heard this one before? RT @knoxnews: Army Corps of Engineers admits errors in flood response http://ow.ly/2fh6J

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By Brendan Loy (Twitter/FriendFeed)

RT @rkessler: @brendanloy It would be cool if there was a way add a #PANIC to every CNN release.

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By Brendan Loy (Twitter/FriendFeed)

CNN Breaking News — Vessels responding to oil spill disaster, including rig digging relief well, leave site as Tropical Storm Bonnie nears

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By Brendan Loy

A rainbow, framed by a church:

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It was right over the church earlier, but got more spectacular as it inched away — though not nearly as spectacular as another well-framed rainbow that long-time readers might remember.

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By Brendan Loy (Twitter/FriendFeed)

RT @CBSNews: Caught On Tape: Video of Whale Crashing into Boat http://bit.ly/bTnycd

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By Brendan Loy (Twitter/FriendFeed)

RT @denverpost: BREAKING: Tancredo demands both GOP guv candidates to drop out of race or he will run against them: http://bit.ly/alqtIq

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By Brendan Loy (Twitter/FriendFeed)

RT @wxchannel: We now have Tropical Storm #Bonnie with max sustained winds of 40 mph. Graphic updates coming shortly. #hurricane

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By Brendan Loy (Twitter/FriendFeed)

The State Department is building an army: http://is.gd/dCBzi. It can move in sunlight and cover great distance at speed. HILLARY IS COMING FOR THE RING.

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By David K.

ESPN.com’s Pac-10 blogger Ted Miller has been having some fun with some best case/worst case scenarios for each of the confernence teams in his blog recently, but today’s take on Oregon was the most hilarious by far, finishing with this gem for their worst case scenario:

Oregon loses the Las Vegas Bowl to Utah and finishes 8-5.

Phil Knight converts to Buddhism, gives his fortune to the United Way and moves to Tibet. Chip Kelly goes with him.

Tyrone Willingham comes out of retirement to become the Ducks head coach.

Here’s the other eight he has finished so far, USC is still to come and will probably be the most entertaining read of all!

Arizona
Arizona State
Cal
Oregon State
Stanford
UCLA
Washington
Washington State

By Brendan Loy (Twitter/FriendFeed)

RT @JimCantore: In North Miami Beach to begin coverage on TD3 (Bonnie)

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By Brendan Loy (Twitter/FriendFeed)

Transcript of Obama’s call to Sherrod: “Let me be clear: My bad. Make no mistake: We f***ed up. But I inherited Andrew Breitbart from Bush.”

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By Becky Loy

Milk and baking soda might kill the powdery mildew attacking my vegetable patch, right? #hippiegardening

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By Brendan Loy (Twitter/FriendFeed)

W00T! RT @denverpost: Are you reading this tweet on your iPhone? Try our brand new @DenverPost iPhone App – http://dpo.st/iPhoneDP

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By Brendan Loy (Twitter/FriendFeed)

“For a Keynesian, it’s always 1933. But it may very well be 1973, instead: the doorstep of staglation.” http://bit.ly/9oM2Tv. #PANIC
Biggest issue with just-tweeted NRO piece: what does “proceed with caution” mean? Inaction is a form of action. Can’t let caution equal paralysis.
Either author’s economic analysis is right, or it’s not. But to say it’s more “cautious” than a Keynesian approach is meaningless poppycock.
What we need is not “caution,” but correctness. We should vigorously pursue the correct policy. But what *is* the correct policy? That’s the question.
Let me be clear: I’m not saying author is wrong. I dunno. I just know the Keynes-Hayek debate is central, and can’t be avoided via a vague philosophy of “caution.”
RT @politicalmath How do you proceed with no confident way to determine “correct” policy? | I have no idea. This is why I hate (and love) economics.
RT @politicalmath: @brendanloy I’m not an economist, but I find “stagflation” concerns to be a bit paranoid. But we should still probably #PANIC
RT @dmataconis: @politicalmath @brendanloy No matter what the news, we must never forget to #PANIC
RT @politicalmath: @dmataconis @brendanloy I confidently predict the end of the world at an unspecified, unprovable time in the future.
RT @dmataconis: @politicalmath @brendanloy #PANIC !!!!!!!!

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By Becky Loy

Spent $85 on groceries to feed four people three meals a day plus snacks for a week.That’s about a buck a meal per person.

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By Brendan Loy

I blogged over at Sullivan’s Travelers about newly designated Tropical Depression Three, which has just formed over the Bahamas. It’s likely to become Tropical Storm Bonnie, and to move through the Florida Straits and into the Gulf of Mexico. That expected track virtually guarantees that this storm will get a whole lot of media attention, far more than your average weak-ish tropical cyclone that probably won’t ever attain hurricane status, because, well…

145913W5_NL_sm

That’s right: proto-Bonnie is forecast to pass pretty much directly over, or at least very close to, the Deepwater Horizon oil spill zone in the central Gulf. BP’s efforts to permanently stop the spill are already shutting down, and there will be much fevered speculation in the media about the storm’s potential direct impact on the existing oil slick.

Thankfully, this speculation is likely to be overblown. If the current intensity forecast (or anything close to it) holds, T.D. 3 will probably do little more than delay BP’s efforts for a few days. The prospect of a massive storm surge bring waves of oil-stained waters miles inland is just not looking realistic with this storm. The Houston Chronicle’s Eric Berger explains:

The big question is how strong the depression will become. It bears repeating that none of the intensity models, unreliable though they may be, show substantial strengthening of this system as it enters the Gulf of Mexico.

In its forecast the National Hurricane Center’s best guess is that it will attain a maximum wind speed of 50 mph, which would make it a moderately strong tropical storm. Such a storm would certainly impair ongoing efforts to mitigate the oil spill, but it would not have a large surge to drive oil inland.

The current forecast track brings the depression across the central Gulf of Mexico, right across the center of the spill. If the depression does unexpectedly strengthen into a reasonably large hurricane and develops a surge, the oil would likely be pushed inland toward the southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama coasts, which have already borne the brunt of the spill effects.

So let’s hope the models are right and environmental conditions remain such that the depression remains relatively weak.

We’ll learn more about T.D. Three/proto-Bonnie as the day progresses. Both the intensity and track forecasts are in their early iterations now; a reconnaissance aircraft is on its way to investigate, and will provide invaluable information about the storm’s current status, and hopefully insight into its future. But at present, there’s no reason to really fear this storm. It is a big freakin’ nuisance, of course. But things could be a lot worse. The Gulf of Mexico is very capable of producing monster hurricanes at this time of year, and with the oil slick sitting in the middle of Hurricane Alley, there has been every reason to be concerned about that prospect, even moreso than usual. So if a piddling little tropical storm is the worst that June and July end up giving us, we should count ourselves lucky. And then perhaps say a few prayers about August and September. *knock on wood*

P.S. Dr. Jeff Masters has some general background information on a hurricane’s potential impact on the oil spill, and vice versa.

3 Comments  |  Categories: Hurricanes

By Brendan Loy (Twitter/FriendFeed)

RT @Taniel: Republicans land a candidate in West Virginia: It’ll be John Raese’s 3rd Senate bid, and he’ll be sure to spend millions of his money.

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By Brendan Loy (Twitter/FriendFeed)

Yet 90%+ of those seeking re-election will win. RT @nprnews: Half Of Americans Have ‘Very Little’ Confidence In Congress http://n.pr/9Rm0E3

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By Brendan Loy (Twitter/FriendFeed)

RT @hurricanetrack: NHC begins advisories on TD #3 in the Bahamas. Max winds are 35 mph. Pressure 1008 mb. Moving WNW at 15 mph.

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By Brendan Loy (Twitter/FriendFeed)

RT @CNBCtopStories: Existing Home Sales Fall, Putting More Drag on Economy #Mortgages #Housing #RealEstate | U forgot #PANIC! (Also #Poland)

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By Becky Loy

Off to the grocery store with the midgets to buy food for the week.

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By Brendan Loy (Twitter/FriendFeed)

RT @insidetroy: Senior WR Travon Patterson told USCFootball.com he is transferring to Colorado. He had 10 catches for 96 yards in his #USC #Trojan career.

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