By Brendan Loy (Twitter/FriendFeed)

Booo. #dukesucks RT @SportsCenter: Duke men’s lacrosse beat Notre Dame 6-5 in OT to win the Men’s National Championship.

By Brendan Loy (Twitter/FriendFeed)

RT @nytimes: Phillies 1, Marlins 0: Phillies’ Halladay Pitches Season’s Second Perfect Game http://nyti.ms/aYCv47

By Brendan Loy (Twitter/FriendFeed)

RT @SportsCenter: The Lakers beat the Suns 111-103 to clinch the Western Conference. A finals appearance against the Celtics awaits them.

By Brendan Loy (Twitter/FriendFeed)

CNN Breaking News — BP says “top kill” has failed to stop flow of oil from well and it is “time to move on” to another approach.

By Brendan Loy

Me: “I’m going to put up our American flag, because it’s Memorial Day weekend, and Memorial Day is a very patriotic holiday.”

Loyette: “Are we going to the holiday?”

Me: “It’s not a holiday you go to, sweetie, it’s a holiday you celebrate with your family and friends and your community, to honor the brave soldiers who fought for our freedom.”

Loyette: “And fought for your freedom, and fought for Mommy’s freedom.”

P.S. I have no idea why Loyette’s initial reaction was that a “holiday” is something you “go to.” Is she secretly British??

UPDATE: After I put up the flag, Loyette informed me that, while dogs poop in the grass, and she poops in the potty, flags do not, in fact, poop. Good to know.

By Brendan Loy (Twitter/FriendFeed)

RT @mediaite: BREAKING Report: Email Circulating Stating BP’s ‘Top Kill’ Has Failed http://mediaite.com/a/eeten FM

By Brendan Loy (Twitter/FriendFeed)

RT @BreakingNews: Indians pitcher David Huff is carted off the field after being hit above left eye by an Alex Rodriguez line drive http://bit.ly/aNX4vz [UPDATE: Video here and here.]

By Brendan Loy (Twitter/FriendFeed)

CNN Breaking News — Actor Dennis Hopper has died, his family confirms.

By Brendan Loy (Twitter/FriendFeed)

Loyette just asked Loyacita, “Do you want to play peek-a-boo with your big sister?” Awww.

By Brendan Loy (Twitter/FriendFeed)

RT @aglock: If you like pitcher’s duels, both Gallardo (MIL) and Santana (NYM) are still in in the 9th inning of a 0-0 game in Milwaukee. [UPDATE: The Mets pulled Santana before the bottom of the ninth started, and paid the price. The bullpen blew his shutout. The Brewers won, 2-0, on a two-run, two-out, bottom-of-the-ninth homer.]

By Brendan Loy (Twitter/FriendFeed)

CNN Breaking News — Gary Coleman, who was the child star of TV show “Diff’rent Strokes,” has died at age 42, a publicist says.

By Brendan Loy

I’ve written extensively in the past on why I think preseason tropical activity forecasts are generally fairly useless. And indeed, trying to specifically predict a particular number of storms is pretty silly. Although hurricane seasons are medium-period events, occupying the gray area between long-term weather and short-term climate, individual hurricanes are short-period events, influenced heavily by other short-period events, which are inherently chaotic and unpredictable. You could have perfect conditions for a busy season, yet a half-dozen or a dozen instances of right-place, right-time wind shear, for instance, can give you a below-average storm count. Conversely, a season that “should” be calm can end up “active” because micro-conditions happen to be “just right” for a bunch of storms and stormlets, despite hostile macro-conditions.

Moreover, and perhaps more importantly, preaseason forecasts tell us exactly nothing about what really matters to people, which is where storms will go, and what impact they’ll have. The 1992 hurricane season is the archetypal example: it was a “slow” season, yet it produced Hurricane Andrew. So, really, it wasn’t a “slow” season at all, practically speaking, at least not in a way that matters to anyone. “An active year is the year when you get hit,” as they say.

Having said all that… storm-filled seasons, strong hurricanes, and devastating land impacts are certainly statistically more likely if the macro-conditions are right. And, as we approach the “official” start of hurricane season on Tuesday, it appears the macro-conditions are just about perfect for an active season. Cue NOAA’s forecast:

An “active to extremely active” hurricane season is expected for the Atlantic Basin this year according to the seasonal outlook issued today by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center – a division of the National Weather Service. …

Expected factors supporting this outlook are:

Upper atmospheric winds conducive for storms. Wind shear, which can tear apart storms, will be weaker since El Niño in the eastern Pacific has dissipated. Strong wind shear helped suppress storm development during the 2009 hurricane season.

Warm Atlantic Ocean water. Sea surface temperatures are expected to remain above average where storms often develop and move across the Atlantic. Record warm temperatures – up to four degrees Fahrenheit above average – are now present in this region.

High activity era continues. Since 1995, the tropical multi-decadal signal has brought favorable ocean and atmospheric conditions in sync, leading to more active hurricane seasons. Eight of the last 15 seasons rank in the top ten for the most named storms with 2005 in first place with 28 named storms.

NOAA is predicting 14 to 23 named storms, including 8 to 14 hurricanes, of which 3 to 7 could be major hurricanes. (Credit NOAA for giving a range, instead of a specific number. That’s much better.) Other predictions also call for an active season, though NOAA’s forecast appears to be the most bullish.

Blogger (and, FWIW, global warming denialist — I mention this only because I know it will come up in comments) Alan Sullivan, who often pooh-poohs alarmist storm predictions, is totally on board with this one, and has been for some time. Examples and analysis after the jump.

Continue reading »

By Brendan Loy (Twitter/FriendFeed)

CNN Breaking News — BP’s top official upgrades impact of Gulf oil spill from “very modest” to “environmental catastrophe.”

By Brendan Loy (Twitter/FriendFeed)

In Denver’s sky right now: brilliant Venus setting in the west, gorgeous Full Moon rising in the east. Light and high beauty.

By Brendan Loy (Twitter/FriendFeed)

Heh. Fake BP tweet: RT @BPGlobalPR Just got concession call from Exxon Valdez. They were great competitors, remarkably evil about everything

By Brendan Loy (Twitter/FriendFeed)

CNN Breaking News — Gulf of Mexico oil spill now worst in U.S. history, government estimates show.

By Brendan Loy (Twitter/FriendFeed)

BP: Too early to say if “top kill” worked: http://bit.ly/dkmZaJ. Meanwhile, spill now worst in U.S. history: http://bit.ly/95uiFe. Head rolls: http://bit.ly/bBNPji.

By Brendan Loy (Twitter/FriendFeed)

US money supply plunges at 1930s pace as Obama eyes fresh stimulus http://bit.ly/akQtTE … Um, #PANIC

By Brendan Loy (Twitter/FriendFeed)

I haven’t followed “American Idol,” but I gather that Lee beating Crystal is further proof of America’s inability to govern itself. #eventhorizon