Comments on: FriendFeed: Dan Shanoff: “TCU-Boise … http://www.brendanloy.com/lrt/2010/01/friendfeed-dan-shanoff-tcu-boise/ All the Nose that's fit to blog Sun, 05 Feb 2012 19:45:15 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: Jazz http://www.brendanloy.com/lrt/2010/01/friendfeed-dan-shanoff-tcu-boise/comment-page-1/#comment-3473 Jazz Tue, 05 Jan 2010 02:38:57 +0000 http://friendfeed.com/e/345abf75-831a-47fe-8ede-fd31b3e5254f#comment-3473 In fact, if you buy that the 2nd non-AQ team (Boise State) is an endorsement of mid-major football, you have to believe that a potential third AQ at-large team was a viable alternative to Boise. Only one 2-loss AQ team missed the BCS, Penn State. Penn State was ineligible when the Orange Bowl chose Iowa, which gave the Big Ten 2 teams and disqualified them from a third. Therefore, the next best AQ alternative would have been one of the following 9-3's: Virginia Tech, Oklahoma State, Miami, or Pittsburgh/West Virginia. Versus which of those 9-3's does the selection of 13-0 Boise State feel like an endorsement? For me, none of 'em. In fact, if you buy that the 2nd non-AQ team (Boise State) is an endorsement of mid-major football, you have to believe that a potential third AQ at-large team was a viable alternative to Boise.

Only one 2-loss AQ team missed the BCS, Penn State. Penn State was ineligible when the Orange Bowl chose Iowa, which gave the Big Ten 2 teams and disqualified them from a third.

Therefore, the next best AQ alternative would have been one of the following
9-3’s: Virginia Tech, Oklahoma State, Miami, or Pittsburgh/West Virginia.

Versus which of those 9-3’s does the selection of 13-0 Boise State feel like an endorsement? For me, none of ‘em.

]]> By: Jazz http://www.brendanloy.com/lrt/2010/01/friendfeed-dan-shanoff-tcu-boise/comment-page-1/#comment-3472 Jazz Tue, 05 Jan 2010 01:59:55 +0000 http://friendfeed.com/e/345abf75-831a-47fe-8ede-fd31b3e5254f#comment-3472 There have been 14 defacto NCAA football championship games since 1995. All 28 teams were from AQ conferences; only 4 of those games were decided by less than 10 points. A few (USC 55, Oklahoma 19; Florida 52, Florida State 20) sure resembled this year's Sugar Bowl blowout of Cincinnati by Florida. The resemblance was not just the final score. In each of those games, the winner had a high-powered offense that quickly exposed defensive inadequacies of the loser, which has a cascading effect in football. If you're going to contain Tebow's Gators, your secondary and your linebackers all have to do their jobs and do them well. Once one group breaks down and the other starts to cheat to help, you're doomed. This is not to say that Cincinnati is as good as Florida. However, if they played several weeks in a row, where Cincinnati gained experience with Florida and made the appropriate adjustments, they might do pretty well in games 6-10. They might have done well on New Year's night if they had scored early and played with more confidence, and their defense had done their job. Which is a long-winded way of saying that football, because it relies on a handful of discrete, decisive plays, doesn't reveal as much about the relative quality of the teams as other major sports do. Said differently, an early 9-0 lead for Florida in the Sugar Bowl is much more predictive of a blowout than a similar lead in the other big sports. Because we know football results from discrete events, we are less likely to change our views about teams or conferences' quality. As a result, the possibility of this being a national semifinal for next year is much longer than the author believes. We should recall that the four at-large teams this year are the two playing tonight, the loser of the <i>real</i> national semifinal between Alabama and Florida....and Iowa, perhaps the most gawdawful at-large team in memory. If the next step down were anything better than Iowa, I'm pretty sure Boise State wouldn't be here tonight. The mid-majors are further away than this author believes. There have been 14 defacto NCAA football championship games since 1995. All 28 teams were from AQ conferences; only 4 of those games were decided by less than 10 points. A few (USC 55, Oklahoma 19; Florida 52, Florida State 20) sure resembled this year’s Sugar Bowl blowout of Cincinnati by Florida.

The resemblance was not just the final score. In each of those games, the winner had a high-powered offense that quickly exposed defensive inadequacies of the loser, which has a cascading effect in football. If you’re going to contain Tebow’s Gators, your secondary and your linebackers all have to do their jobs and do them well. Once one group breaks down and the other starts to cheat to help, you’re doomed.

This is not to say that Cincinnati is as good as Florida. However, if they played several weeks in a row, where Cincinnati gained experience with Florida and made the appropriate adjustments, they might do pretty well in games 6-10. They might have done well on New Year’s night if they had scored early and played with more confidence, and their defense had done their job.

Which is a long-winded way of saying that football, because it relies on a handful of discrete, decisive plays, doesn’t reveal as much about the relative quality of the teams as other major sports do. Said differently, an early 9-0 lead for Florida in the Sugar Bowl is much more predictive of a blowout than a similar lead in the other big sports.

Because we know football results from discrete events, we are less likely to change our views about teams or conferences’ quality. As a result, the possibility of this being a national semifinal for next year is much longer than the author believes. We should recall that the four at-large teams this year are the two playing tonight, the loser of the real national semifinal between Alabama and Florida….and Iowa, perhaps the most gawdawful at-large team in memory.

If the next step down were anything better than Iowa, I’m pretty sure Boise State wouldn’t be here tonight. The mid-majors are further away than this author believes.

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