If they lose to TCU, I suppose it’s possible they could miss out on the preseason Top 11, but I really, really don’t think so. Remember, they were preseason #14 this year. And next year, they return EVERY STARTER from, at worst, a 13-1 team that’ll finish somewhere in the #7-9 range with a loss to TCU. (They’re #6 now, with a solid wall of 2- and 3-loss teams behind ‘em. They might get passed by a couple of the 2-loss teams, like the Oregon-Ohio State winner — at least if it’s Ohio State, ahem — and the Georgia Tech-Iowa winner, and maybe Penn State if it beats LSU, but I can’t see them finishing behind any three-loss teams.)

So, we’re talking about a Top 10 team that returns EVERYBODY, while a bunch of the other Top 10 teams will lose key players… and you’re saying the pollsters will rank them closer to #22 than to #2 (i.e., lower than #12)?? How do you figure?? If you think the pollsters are so horribly biased against the mid-majors that they’ll saddle this Boise team, despite their transparently obvious worthiness for a Top 10 if not Top 5 ranking, with another mid-teens preseason ranking, just because they play in the WAC, I don’t think you’ve been paying attention to how the pollsters have treated the mid-majors this whole season. It’s not the early 2000s anymore.

Granted, a similarly situated BCS-conference team would be in serious consideration for the #1 preseason ranking; Boise will not be. #2 is almost certainly too high, as well, IMHO. That’s where the bias comes in — they’ll be a few spots lower because they’re Boise State. But Top 5 is absolutely realistic with a win over TCU, and Top 10 is pretty much guaranteed regardless.

Voters may be more open-minded, but I don’t see “smarter”.