By Brendan Loy

Maine is the devil you know
Maine is the heaven below
Maine, at the top of the chart
Has crushed my evil heart
–John Linnell

Andrew Sullivan appears to be conceding defeat on the gay marriage amendment in Maine, but Doug Mataconis says it’s still “way too close to call.” With 69 percent of the precincts reporting, the tally is 51.8% to 48.2% in favor of repealing the state’s law allowing gay marriage.

We’ll see. I’m not terribly optimistic for a massive late surge, and am thinking that the final numbers may be distressingly close to my 51.3% to 48.7% prediction. I was hoping to be wrong, obviously. But I’m not going to stay up any later waiting to find out whether I am. Time for bed. G’nite all. Thanks for the memories, Twitter.

(Seriously: this election night was an overwhelmingly Twitter-centric experience for me. Is this the wave of the future? Or at least a preview of how I’ll follow Midterm Election Night 2010 in real time? Election-night live-tweeting makes election-night live-blogging seem so 12 months ago.)

By Brendan Loy (Twitter/FriendFeed)

NJ voters handed Christie a clear victory so they could avoid talk of recounts, fraud & ACORN interfering with Game 6 of the World Series.

By Brendan Loy (Twitter/FriendFeed)

Hoffman concedes. Owens wins #NY23.

By Brendan Loy (Twitter/FriendFeed)

Newington CT tally: Wright 3,783, Bowen 3,668. 50.8% to 49.2%. http://bit.ly/4ZbCM I predicted 50.9% to 49.1%. http://bit.ly/2H8k6P Not bad!

By Brendan Loy (Twitter/FriendFeed)

RT @Taniel Obama’s refusal to help Maine ‘no’ campaign, even in minimal way, biggest insult to gay community yet. | Recount? http://bit.ly/4iYjra

By Brendan Loy (Twitter/FriendFeed)

RT @RussertXM_NBC Fox News calling NY-23 for Owens.

By Brendan Loy (Twitter/FriendFeed)

Nate Silver: Democrat Owens Appears Poised for Victory in #NY23 http://tinyurl.com/yg8doou RT @fivethirtyeight

By Brendan Loy (Twitter/FriendFeed)

CNN says Bloomberg spent approx. $170 per vote. Even more than Corzine. Bloomy needed almost all of those votes, though!

By Brendan Loy (Twitter/FriendFeed)

RT @Taniel Another gay rights nail biter? In Washington state, domestic partnerships are currently up 52% to 48% (42% reporting).

By Brendan Loy (Twitter/FriendFeed)

RT @rolandsmartin White candidate, Mary Norwood, leading in Atlanta. Likely headed to runoff against Kasim Reed. http://www.ajc.com/

By Brendan Loy (Twitter/FriendFeed)

RT @rolandsmartin Openly gay candidate, Annise Parker, and black candidate, Gene Locke, headed to runoff for mayor in Houston.

By Brendan Loy (Twitter/FriendFeed)

RT @ppppolls, which had Hoffman winning 54-38 in #NY23: “Lesson learned: if a candidate drops out in the middle of a poll, kill it.” Heh.

By Brendan Loy (Twitter/FriendFeed)

RT @BreakingNews With 58% of precincts reporting, 51.29% have voted to reject same-sex marriage in Maine. The outcome remains uncertain.

By Brendan Loy (Twitter/FriendFeed)

RT @MelissaTweets @RandyHaddock: $120,000,000 divided by 999,532 votes (so far) = $120.06. Corzine wasted about 120 bucks per vote.

By Brendan Loy (Twitter/FriendFeed)

RT @MelissaTweets @mattklewis NBC calls NY-23 for Owens. | My dad was right! And my picking Hoffman & Corzine doomed them. I’m ALWAYS wrong.

By Brendan Loy

To the extent there’s a broader lesson to be drawn from tonight’s results, Andrew Sullivan nails it, I think:

How easily we forget. We get caught up in the health insurance fight, we game the Beck-Palin subculture, we chatter about Israel and Iran, we obsess about marriage equality … while the voters who do not do politics for a living are simply trying to survive one of the worst downturns in history. The votes tonight are anti-incumbent votes in protest at economic crisis and the slow pace of recovery.

Bloomberg’s stunningly poor showing also fits into this analysis. Though there’s also, I think, a hint of anti-gazillionaire populism in the rejection of Corzine and near-rejection of Bloomberg. In this age of bailouts and Wall Street outrages, self-funded campaigners need to be careful. A shot across Mitt Romney’s bow, perhaps?

By the way, it’s looking good for the Democrat Owens in NY-23, but various conservative tweeters are reporting that Hoffman’s people are still expecting a late surge, based on their precinct-level data. Hard to know if that’s realistic, or if they’re deluding themselves. Politicians’ ability to stay in denial about the electoral chances, even as the facts contradict them, can be staggering. But who knows? It ain’t over till the fat governor-elect of New Jersey sings. :P

(Gay marriage is Maine is also too close to call, BTW.)

P.S. Marc Ambinder:

The Republican wins in New Jersey and Virginia and the close race in New York City tells us…

…self-financers, people affiliated with Big Wall Street, the Old Money Crowd, the establishment, the party leadership… are being put on notice. Not a Democratic or Republican thing…but a gun, fired by the political regulars — not the newer Obama turnout cohort but the regular off-year cohort — at the heart of those who protect those in power, at bailouts, at spending.

Also: very easy alternate explanation: the economy sucks. States are really hurting. Governors are very unpopular. Their support is going to crater.

By Brendan Loy (Twitter/FriendFeed)

Split decision in Newington, CT: http://bit.ly/34I4c7 Mayor Wright (R) wins 51-49, but Dems take council. WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR OBAMA?!? :)

By Brendan Loy (Twitter/FriendFeed)

RT @fivethirtyeight AP finally calls race for Bloomberg. Local spin: closeness of vote moderately embarrassing for him, given $$$ invested.

By Brendan Loy (Twitter/FriendFeed)

RT @allahpundit Gulp: With more than 20% of votes in, Hoffman trails by seven http://is.gd/4MuL2

By Brendan Loy (Twitter/FriendFeed)

RT @CTGOP Mayor Jeff Wright (R) re-elected to 2nd term in Newington | RT @michaelwgerhart But GOP loses Council and Board of Ed majorities

By Brendan Loy (Twitter/FriendFeed)

RT @michellemalkin @MajoratWH: AP just called NJ for Chris Christie. Fox has not called the election.

By Brendan Loy (Twitter/FriendFeed)

RT @fivethirtyeight Whoa — MSNBC just UNcalled the NYC mayor’s race. | Shades of Florida 2000! Bloomberg in trouble? The Gawker effect?

By Brendan Loy (Twitter/FriendFeed)

RT @redalexandriava 8% in Owens up 51-42 #ny23