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Before I post the latest track forecast, it’s important to emphasize that Hurricane Earl is not a point on the map, but a broad storm system with a geographically large wind field. The exact course of the eye is important, especially for storm surge purposes, because the strongest winds and most damaging surge — especially when it reaches New England, by which point its forward speed will be accelerating, even as its rotational winds decrease — will be in the storm’s right-front quadrant. Thus, if the eye remains offshore, even by a few dozen miles, things will be much better than if the eye makes a direct hit, thus bringing that maximum surge onto the coastline immediately to the east of the landfall point. However, having said that, there will be plenty of rough weather on shore regardless of the storm’s exact track, because the wind field is large, and possibly about to get larger:
THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE STRUCTURE OF EARL DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER..MICROWAVE INAGERY SUGGEST THAT AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT COULD OCCUR SOON…IN WHICH CASE THE WIND FIELD WOULD BECOME LARGER.
Earl has very likely peaked in intensity at 140 mph, and will probably begin a slow, steady weakening with the next full advisory at 5pm EDT. The eyewall replacement cycle will kick off this trend, and by the time the cycle is complete and the storm would be ready to re-tighten again, shear will have increased further, and then the waters will get cooler. So Earl is officially on the decline. But no one ever expected this storm to make landfall as a Category 4, so that’s not too surprising. The potential widening of the wind field could be a bigger deal, increasing the storm’s impact in North Carolina and especially in New England and the Maritimes, since the eventual start of an extratropical transition as it accelerates north is likely to make that widened wind field even wider. This is going to a big storm — not catastrophic, but widely felt over a broad area.
Anyway, here’s the latest forecast track:
Watches and Warnings, as you can see, now stretch all the way from Cape Fear to Nova Scotia. (Red is Hurricane Warning, Pink is Hurricane Watch, Blue is Tropical Storm Warning, and Yellow is Tropical Storm Watch.) I’m not sure why the land on either side of the Bay of Fundy isn’t covered yet — I’m guessing they’ll be added in the next advisory. Timing of landfall will be very important there, as Fundy has the highest tides in the world, so a landfall at high tide would be quite something.
Earl is now officially moving due north (well, almost — 355 degrees), so the first part of its “turn” has happened on schedule. Next, it is expected to turn to the NNE in the wee hours of tomorrow morning, mere hours before making its closest approach to Hatteras. From its current position, if it were to keep moving at 355 degrees or so, give or take a wobble, it could make a direct hit on the Outer Banks. But that’s not expected to happen.
Watch for that turn to the NNE overnight tonight, in the hours before landfall. If it doesn’t happen, things will be much worse in North Carolina than we’re expecting, and although there’s no particular reason to believe the turn won’t happen — the computer models have handled this storm pretty well — it’ll be far too late to adjust preparations or evacuation plans if the forecasts turn out to be wrong. North Carolinians should be making final preparations to protect life and property now, and doing so on the basis of a direct hit tomorrow morning, even though that’s not the most likely scenario. If you’re in this storm’s path, batten down the hatches — or, if the local officials tell you to evacuate: Do it! Get the Hell out!
P.S. Dr. Jeff Masters has an excellent post rounding up the potential impacts, including:
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