So… who goes to Glendale? As I noted earlier, it appears that the computers will probably be a dead heat between Michigan and Florida, so it’ll be up to the voters. BCS Guru crunches the numbers:
Prior to Saturday’s games, 86 of the 114 Harris voters (75 percent) and 40 of the 63 (63 percent) coaches had Michigan ahead of Florida. It would take a swing [of] 43 Harris voters and 20 coaches to get the Gators ahead of the Wolverines.
He adds that if the voters choose Florida, a split title is possible:
[A]n Ohio State-Florida matchup leaves open the possibility of a split national championship once again. Michigan is almost unanimously ahead of Florida in the AP poll (63 of 65 voters) and is unlikely to be jumped by the Gators for the No. 2 spot. If Florida somehow upsets Ohio State and Michigan impressively trounces USC in the Rose Bowl, the Wolverines just might win the AP title over the Gators.
That would make the Michigan vs. USC Rose Bowl essentially the mirror image of three years ago, this time with Michigan having a shot at a share of the national title. Of course, the difference three years ago was that USC came in ranked #1 in the AP poll, not #2, so they were virtually assured of the title with a win. Michigan would need help from Florida to secure a title, and that sort of scenario hasn’t generally worked out for teams in Michigan’s position in the past. There have been various previous years where a one-loss team had a shot at a split title if some other one-loss team upset the lone undefeated team in the official title game; think back to 2001-02, for example, when Oregon could have won the AP title if Nebraska had beaten Miami, or to 2000-01, when either Washington or Miami could have made an argument for a split if Florida State had upset Oklahoma. However, a one-loss team has never beaten an undefeated team in a BCS title game.
The official BCS Selection Show is at 8:00 PM on Fox.
P.S. What do you think?
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Categories: College Football
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December 3rd, 2006 at 9:23:18 am
[…] y Doug Mataconis @ 9:22 am on December 3, 2006. Brendan Loy asks who deserves to play the Buckeyes in Glendale. All will be answ […]
December 3rd, 2006 at 10:11:17 am
I just want Florida to play for the NC so that I can laugh at all those LSU people who already bought plane tickets to LA and reserved hotel rooms.
December 3rd, 2006 at 10:17:08 am
While I would prefer to see Florida in the NC game, I would also rather see USC play LSU in the Rose Bowl instead of playing Michigan again….so I am definitely conflicted here.
December 3rd, 2006 at 1:58:43 pm
Coaches poll has Florida at #2 . . . Looks like the Gators get the bid.
So now we don’t need to watch the game to know which Big Ten team will be national champion this year.
December 3rd, 2006 at 2:01:57 pm
Coaches Poll is Out:
1. Ohio State
2. Florida
3. Michigan
4. LSU
5. Wisconsin
6. Louisville
7. USC
8. Oklahoma
9. Boise State
10. Auburn
11. Notre Dame
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/college/football/usatpoll.htm
December 3rd, 2006 at 2:28:32 pm
It’s unfortunate that Boise State, even being undefeated, will (more than likely) not be able to play in the championship game.
December 3rd, 2006 at 2:32:17 pm
That’s not “more than likely,” it’s a certainty.
If Boise beats Oklahoma soundly (admittedly unlikely) and Ohio State loses, I would vote them #1 if I were an AP voter.
December 3rd, 2006 at 2:42:52 pm
SC vs. Michigan will revive the Pac/big 10 rivalry. See ya at Pasadena.
December 3rd, 2006 at 3:05:44 pm
I dont see why a BSU victory over OU is unlikely. BSU is a strong team just waiting for a chance to prove itself. OU is just legitemate enough to be the “signature win” for BSU.
OU’s Thompson had a good game last night, but the first 3/4 of the season were a nightmare for him. OU’s secondary is porous (too bad BSU’s strength is not the passing game).
For more than the above reasons, OU is not that great of a team. I am inclined to pick BSU in this one…