Commenter “CT” writes: “Although not supposed to be released for another hour and a half, the new BCS standings are hidden away on the college football hall of fame website. … USC’s lead is surprisingly substantial. Much more than any projections I had seen. They’ve jumped to #1 in two computer polls!” Here is the link to the PDF file.
In case the file gets disappeared, here’s a copy on my server.
No time to fully think through the implications just now (I’m at the airport, using free Wi-Fi, but boarding will commence shortly), however it looks like Cal’s chances of cracking the Top 14 are less than I thought (they got jumped by Wake Forest and Tennessee), and it looks like the odds of Notre Dame getting locked out of the BCS by an automatic bid for Louisville as slim-to-none, as LSU is now ahead of the Cardinals and two teams can’t take advantage of the “top four” rule.
UPDATE: Okay, thinking quickly about this Cal thing… they’re #18. The Rutgers-West Virginia loser will certainly fall behind them, so that brings them to #17. If #22 Georgia Tech beats #17 Wake Forest in the ACC title game, the Bears might gain a spot, but on the other hand, the Yellow Jackets might jump them. Likewise if #20 Nebraska beats #12 Oklahoma. And Arkansas didn’t fall as far as I thought. If #4 Florida beats #9 Arkansas, the Razorbacks might fall behind the Bears, or they might not. In order for Cal to have any chance, all three of those things would have to happen… and also, the Bears would have to avoid falling behind Texas despite the fact that playing Stanford will presumably hurt their computer ratings. So, I don’t like Cal’s chances much.
In other news, Oregon State is now ranked #24. Just saying.
P.S. Notre Dame is #10. With losses by Arkansas and Oklahoma and/or Louisville, they could potentially move into the top 8, which would make them an “automatic” selection. But that’s a mere formality. For the Irish, practically speaking, eligible = automatic, unless USC loses (thus moving Michigan up to #2) and Louisville somehow jumps LSU for the #4 spot (or #3 if Florida loses — doesn’t matter), thus earning an automatic at-large bid as the highest-ranked non-conference champion in the #3 or #4 spot, and the Rose Bowl shuns both the Irish and Louisville and takes LSU with the final “open” at-large spot. Very unlikely.
P.P.S. Boise State is #8. They’re automatic anyway for being in the top 12, but also, they’ll be ahead of the Big 12, ACC, and possibly the Big East champion. Nice! Hello, Fiesta Bowl. (Ya think there will be extra tickets available for cheap after the Boise faithful have had their shot at them? I’ll be in Phoenix on Jan. 1, and would love to cheer for the Broncos against Oklahoma or Nebraska…)
November 26th, 2006 at 9:20:27 pm
http://msn.foxsports.com/cfb/story/6209764?FSO1&ATT=HMA
you better pay up =P
November 26th, 2006 at 9:25:56 pm
Cal has only won 8 games. I believe you need to win 9 to be eligible for an at-large bid.
http://www.bcsfootball.org/bcsfb/eligibility
November 26th, 2006 at 9:34:31 pm
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November 26th, 2006 at 10:22:49 pm
gmb, Cal still plays lowly Stanford. I’d give them a 95% chance of having 9 wins…
November 26th, 2006 at 10:26:58 pm
Here’s a brain buster. What if UCLA upsets USC, Arkansas upsets Florida, Louisville beats UConn, and Rutgers beats West Virginia.
There would be no at large bids.
Ten BCS Spots. Ten automatic qualifiers:
1. Ohio State (Big Ten Champ)
2. Michigan (BCS #2)
3. LSU (Conf. Non-Champ BCS #3)
4. Louisville (Conf. Non-Champ BCS #4)
5. USC (PAC 10 Champ)
6. Wake/Ga Tech (ACC Champ)
7. Rutgers (Big East Champ)
8. Boise State (Non-BCS Top 12)
9. Arkansas (SEC Champ)
10. Oklahoma/Nebraska (Big 12 Champ)
Hard to imagine USC and Florida falling lower than Notre Dame. So can’t imagine them moving up to #8 (and qualifying automatically). I guess this scenario really hurts them the most.
November 26th, 2006 at 10:28:25 pm
Wait.
I made some assumptions maybe I shouldn’t have. Arkansas could very easily jump Louisville if they beat Florida.
Darn. I thought I was being clever too.
November 26th, 2006 at 11:15:46 pm
And, if Cal loses to Stanford, their ranking will plummet, so it’ll be a moot point anyway.
November 27th, 2006 at 2:24:00 am
CT, the #4 non-champ gets an automatic selection only if the same provision isn’t used by the #3 team. Under your scenario, Louisville would not get an automatic selection at the #4 spot because Florida got it with the #3 spot.
November 27th, 2006 at 2:25:20 am
I meant to say LSU, not Florida.
November 27th, 2006 at 3:09:04 am
CT, USC1L is correct. Hence my statement:
The reason it’s “very unlikely” is that I don’t see how Louisville jumps LSU for the #4 spot by beating lowly UConn. And if it’s LSU that gets the automatic at-large bid, it doesn’t affect anything, since LSU is most likely going to the Rose Bowl anyway. Louisville is the team that “needs” the auto bid, and if they got it, the Rose Bowl’s choice between LSU and Notre Dame would be the only true at-large “selection” in the process, so ND would be Gator-bound if Pasadena prefers the Tigers. But again, that’s all contingent on Louisville jumping LSU, which I don’t see happening. And of course, USC has to lose (since otherwise Michigan’s in the #3 spot, rendering this whole discussion moot).
November 27th, 2006 at 10:47:43 am
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