With Ohio State’s pre-Nov. 18 schedule consisting of Minnesota, Illinois and Northwestern, and Michigan’s of Northwestern, Ball State and Indiana, we can already pencil in (or maybe even “pen” in) the winner of the Michigan-OSU showdown as one of the two BCS title-game contenders, writes the L.A. Times’s Chris Dufresne. He adds:
The question now is whether the loser of the Ohio State-Michigan game could still finish second in the BCS and make it to the title game.
What if Michigan, which moved ahead of USC to No. 2 in the latest BCS standings, beats Ohio State on a last-second field goal? How far would the Buckeyes fall in the standings?
In 2003, No. 1 Oklahoma was thrashed in the Big 12 title game by Kansas State but fell to only No. 2 in the BCS, which allowed the Sooners to play Louisiana State in the BCS title game.
Of course, for the 2003 scenario to play out, there would need to be no undefeated teams (well, no undefeated teams not named Boise State… or perhaps Rutgers) left standing at the end of the season, outside of the OSU-Michigan winner, of course. Also, let’s not forget that Oklahoma only fell to #3 in the polls because there were only three one-loss teams; everyone else had at least two losses! Otherwise the Sooners would have tumbled further in the polls, perhaps far enough to offset their strength in the computers. Last but not least, the computers are worth less in the BCS formula, relative to the polls, than they used to be. So the pollsters, for good or ill, have more power to “punish” teams in the BCS for late losses.
Still, if USC loses (presumably to Cal or Notre Dame, the former being considerably more likely than the latter, IMHO) and the right combination of things happens in the Big East, Dufresne’s scenario could very well happen — especially given that the OSU-Michgan game occurs on the third-to-last week of the season, and both teams are idle after that, so the memories of the loss will have faded considerably in the pollsters’ minds by the time the final polls come out. In fact, for that very reason, the loss doesn’t even necessarily have to be squeaky-close, and Ohio State doesn’t necessarily have to be the loser! For example, consider this scenario.
Coming into the the November 18 game, the coaches’ poll looks like this:
1. Ohio State
2. Michigan
3. USC
4. West Virginia
5. Texas
6. Auburn
7. Florida
8. Notre Dame
9. Tennessee
10. Cal
Yes, I know USC is ahead of Michigan right now in the coaches’ poll, but I suspect the Wolverines will jump ‘em if they keep winning, and winning big. But regardless, they’ll be close, and it doesn’t really matter who’s #2 when Nov. 18 dawns. Now, suppose Michigan loses to Ohio State by, say, 10 points in Columbus. Meanwhile, Cal beats USC, and Alabama beats Auburn. The pollsters, in their short-sighted “wisdom,” must “punish” the Wolverines, Trojans and Tigers (oh my!), while “rewarding” Cal. The next poll looks something like this:
1. Ohio State
2. West Virginia
3. Texas
4. Florida
5. Michigan
6. Cal
7. USC
8. Notre Dame
9. Tennessee
10. Auburn
Cal jumps four spots, Michigan falls three spots, and Auburn falls out of contention. So now Michigan, done with its season, is #5 — behind three teams that all have tough games remaining. If West Virginia loses to Rutgers, Texas loses the Big 12 title game, and Florida loses the SEC title game, well then guess what? Michigan will be #2 again by the end of the season.
Of course, it’s infinitely more complicated than that, especially once the computers and the Harris poll are taken into account — and there many, many, many different variations on this basic scenario (including ones that involve Ohio State losing). But the point is, don’t forget the significance of “early loss” vs. “late loss” when it comes to polling. Although Michigan’s loss to Ohio State wouldn’t be “early,” it could well be earlier than a lot of other losses by highly-ranked teams… and that, coupled with the fact that it would be a loss to the #1 team on that team’s home field, could definitely help Michigan regain the #2 spot in the polls that it will inevitably temporarily lose if Ohio State wins on November 18.
Hey college football fans… (cue Hank Williams Jr. Monday Night Football music)… Are you ready for a rematch?
(Hat tip: Andrew Leyden.)
|
Categories: College Football
|
October 24th, 2006 at 2:26:25 pm
…no undefeated teams not named Boise State… or perhaps Rutgers…
I know you said “perhaps”, but if Rutgers is the only, or one of only two, undefeated team(s) and they do not make the championship game then the BCS rankings are truly broken. At least Auburn was left out because there were three undefeated teams. I think wins over Pittsburgh, West Virginia and Louisville should give them a strong enough strength of schedule to rank ahead of any and all teams with one or more loss(es).
October 24th, 2006 at 2:32:50 pm
LSU assistant coach arrested for helping agent. Props to Louisiana for having a law to try to deal with this stuff…Has California made a move like this, yet?
October 24th, 2006 at 4:40:33 pm
Basically everyone is on board with the #1 OSU v. #2 Michigan battle on Nov. 18th. The winner of that game will certainly take a spot in the championship game. And although I think your scenario about the loser regaining the number 2 slot is interesting, 1. I don’t think it is very likely and 2. would that really be a game people want to see again?
Ignoring #1 (the likelihood of this happening), does anyone have concerns about setting up a re-match game for the national title? I love Ohio State v. Michigan games as much as the next guy, and probably more, but do we want to see the same game twice? Does anyone want to see the same game twice? For a nationally televised game, those businessmen who select the teams for BCS at large bid generally pick teams that the entire country would want to watch. Think of last year’s OSU v. Notre Dame game for example. And this game would be for the National Title - a re-match for the national title? Are the businessmen going to like this? Is the country going to want to watch this? I just don’t know how I feel about this scenario.
And besides, wouldn’t it be embarrassing if OSU beat Michigan twice in the same season?
October 24th, 2006 at 4:41:48 pm
These EOSUPN jabronies like Herbstreit are talking up the 1-loss team to take the ‘other’ spot in Glendale like it’s destined to be filled by a bottom-10 anyone in the SEC, except Arkansas, team.
Fans, Michigan and OSU are going head-to-head undefeated and if there’s a 1-loss team after that game, the loser is going to stay ahead of everyone else because their lead is already HUGE.
Of course Herbstreit picked Miami to win the national championship, so I guess none of this matters anyway.
October 24th, 2006 at 11:39:58 pm
I think it’s likely there will be at least 1 undefeated team from the USC/Louisville/West Virginia tier but it is possible that they will each lose 1 game given their schedules. IMO Rutgers is the spoiler that can upset either Louisville and West Virginia. However, I don’t think those wins would propel Rutgers ahead of teams like Florida or Texas if they win out.
Among the 1 loss teams, I think Florida has the edge because of its tough schedule but that also makes it harder for Florida to win out. I don’t think Texas’ loss to Ohio State will prevent a rematch since it came early in the season but Texas’ problem is its questionable strength of schedule - although it is moving up in the BCS rankings and the remaining schedule includes teams that might let Texas move up to 5 or possibly 4.
It is certainly conceivable that the loser of Michigan-Ohio State would only drop to 3 in the BCS but I doubt it. Unless the game is incredibly close, the loser probably won’t stay in the top 3 among the other polls and that will probably affect the BCS rankings since those polls count in the BCS rankings. Assuming they all win out, my gut tells me the favorites for #2 will be:
(1) The winner of West Virginia and Louisville;
(2) Florida;
(3) Texas.
October 24th, 2006 at 11:48:10 pm
By the way, no offense to the Irish, USC, Auburn, and Tennessee. I think their schedules coupled with the likelihood of a late season loss will hurt their chances to be the second team. If any of these teams win out, however, I would rank them with Florida or, in the case of USC, as the likely #2.
October 25th, 2006 at 6:32:58 am
For a nationally televised game, those businessmen who select the teams for BCS at large bid generally pick teams that the entire country would want to watch.
Derek, the “businessmen” play NO ROLE in “select[ing] the teams” for the title game. They pick the at-large teams, and you’re right, for any other bowl, they would generally try to avoid a rematch at all costs (but cf., Florida State vs. Miami in the Orange Bowl, 2003-04). But in the title game, whoever finishes #1 and #2 in the BCS standings plays for the championship, period, full stop, end of story. And #1 and #2 in the BCS standings is determined by the polls and the computers, not the “businessmen.” As such, unless you’re contending that the pollsters (or the computers!) will consider the question “would that really be a game people want to see again?” when they rank the teams, that simply won’t come into play.
October 25th, 2006 at 2:13:01 pm
Well, I don’t know about the other polls, but once we get closer to that week you could use the add/remove games option from the Colley Matrix site to see what might happen ranking wise. Unfortunately it only lets you add 5 x beats y pairs at a time and this far out adding one of the above games Brendan predicted is going to be a little innacurate.
For example, i added those Brendan picked to see what would happen and it was:
Ohio State
Michigan
Cal
USC
in that order for the top four (interestingly those are the current top four, but reverse the pairings). But then, if you add a win by USC over Notre Dame to the mix you get this:
Ohio State
USC
Michigan
Cal
And that doesn’t included continued wins by the undefeateds like Rutgers or West Virgina, or other one loss schools like Florida or Texas.