It’s August 20, and we’ve only had three tropical storms and no hurricanes in the Atlantic. Moreover, we’re now in “the quietest stretch in August since a three week period without storms in 2002,” according to Charles Fenwick. But for those who are seizing on the relative quiet in the tropics to raise doubts about the official predictions of an above-average season, Dr. Jeff Masters’s August 16 post is a must-read. Excerpt:
What a difference a year makes! By this date in 2005, we were already up to Hurricane Irene, the 9th named storm of the season. Of those nine, four were hurricanes, and two (Dennis and Emily) were record-breaking Category 4 and 5 hurricanes. However, before we congratulate ourselves too much on a safe start to hurricane season, it is instructive to look at the plot of typical hurricane activity for the Atlantic. Peak hurricane season starts about August 18 and runs through October 18. The worst part of hurricane season is in front of us, and I do anticipate that conditions will get active. Witness 1998, when only one named storm occurred prior to August 19, and 10 named storms and 7 hurricanes formed by the end of September. A similar pattern of activity occurred in 2000, with only two named storm by this date, and a season total of 15 named storms. So, those of you who doubt NOAA and Dr. Gray’s predictions of 15 named storms this season need to put your skepticism on hold.
A major shift in the atmospheric pattern over the Atlantic began at the end of July, and portends an active hurricane season. June and July were characterized by a much stronger than normal Bermuda High, with surface pressures up to 7 mb higher than normal over the Atlantic. Taking a look at the surface pressures the past ten days, we see that surface pressures are now up to 7 mb lower than normal over much of the Atlantic, a complete reversal of the situation in June and July. Lower surface pressures are more conducive for hurricane formation, and drive weaker trade winds. Weaker trade winds mean less evaporative cooling of the ocean, allowing the ocean to heat up more than usual. …
The relatively quiet hurricane season we’ve been enjoying is not going to last. A very active period will start, as soon as the atmosphere destabilizes a bit more. If one believes the long-range 2-week outlook from the GFS model, the current quiet period should last another 4-12 days. Around August 21, I expect it will appear that a switch has been thrown, and the Atlantic will be very active indeed. Expect our first hurricane in the Atlantic by August 26, and a very active September. However, I do expect we will get many recurving storms that will miss land, and that this hurricane season will be similar to the ones we experienced in 1995-2003.
Nothing yet, though. In his most recent post, Dr. Masters says: “Wind shear across most of the tropical Atlantic is forecast to drop to very low levels beginning Wednesday, and I expect we’ll have at least one tropical storm developing by the end of the week.” Fenwick, on the other hand, says, “it is likely that the quiet times in the Atlantic will persist through next week.”
Fenwick also points out that Tropical Storm Ioke formed south of Hawaii this morning, and is the first tropical cyclone to form in the Central Pacific basin since Huko in 2002. It is no threat to land.
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Categories: 2006 Hurricane Season
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August 20th, 2006 at 5:31:54 pm
I blame brendanloy.com for the absence of hurricanes. I move that it be stricken from Wikipedia.
August 20th, 2006 at 5:39:04 pm
LOL!
August 20th, 2006 at 10:40:25 pm
Q: Where are all the hurricanes?
A: They’ve been outsourced. They’re currently in China, killing hundreds of people.
August 15: China typhoon toll surpasses 300
August 21st, 2006 at 6:31:12 am
San Francisco Chronicle has a review of When the Levees Broke:
www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2006/08/21/DDGA5KLD031.DTL
August 21st, 2006 at 12:13:20 pm
hey brendan!im moving to the florida keys in a few short weeks so i hoped you knocked on wood when you posted this! With my luck, we’ll be evacuated the day i step off the plane!
August 21st, 2006 at 7:51:33 pm
Global cooling? Paul Ehrlich’s Population Bomb was wrong in 1968 - and the doomsayers are dead wrong again. Stop. Put. Down. The. Koolaid. Now.
August 21st, 2006 at 9:09:15 pm
This site is doing a series on the unbelievable damage done by Katrina along the Louisiana
and Mississippi coasts, which have been forgotten by the world:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/MargieKieper/show.html
August 21st, 2006 at 9:12:50 pm
I checked w/Daily Kos. It’s Bush’s fault.
August 21st, 2006 at 9:23:06 pm
Sorry, didn’t see that you had already posted a link to Margie Kieper’s site. I came directly to this post from Instapundit (who I sent with this link to yesterday) and didn’t look around before I posted.
August 21st, 2006 at 10:22:21 pm
This link has a pretty good interpretation of what’s going on with
the sea temps and how it’s affecting the season.
http://www.weatherstreet.com/hurricane/2006/hurricane-atlantic-2006-below-normal-season.htm
So what’s it gonna be? Warming or Cooling?
August 21st, 2006 at 11:02:31 pm
As one of the rare (small ‘l’) libertarian Laker fans, I’ve found that pretty much everything is the fault of either Bush or Kobe, but usually both!
Can Instalanches cause hurricanes?
August 22nd, 2006 at 12:54:26 pm
One hurricane season affects the next. It’s all about energy dissipation
August 28th, 2006 at 5:12:47 pm
[…] and that this post could prove to be dramatically wrong. Blogger Brendan Loy, for example, points us to this August 16 post from hurricane expert Dr. Jeff Masters, who […]
November 2nd, 2006 at 4:12:56 pm
It’s November 2nd and the only thing we know is that scientists and all the wannna-be-experts were completely wrong about the 2006 hurricane season. The earth and it’s weather systems have a real knack for making these guys and gals look foolish. Apparently global warming took the year off. LOL!