UPDATE, 8:30 PM: Welcome, InstaPundit readers! Thanks for the link, Glenn! However, a correction is in order: [Glenn has now fixed the error -ed.] Ernesto is not a hurricane yet, despite what the Associated Press would have you believe.

Also… the computer models now appear to be clustering on a track taking Ernesto toward the eastern half of the U.S. Gulf Coast — somewhere between New Orleans and Florida — rather than Texas or western Louisiana. It’s far too early to say for sure, but here’s what SciGuy is saying:

The 4 p.m. forecast track update from the National Hurricane Center reflects a significant eastward shift in the computer models today.

This shift has occurred for two reasons. First, there’s now a bit of confidence that a ridge of high pressure over the northern Gulf coast will, indeed, weaken next week, allowing the system to move in a more northerly fashion when it enters the Gulf. Second, the storm’s center appears to have reformed northeast of where it was earlier.

All of this means that southeast Texas now faces a much lower chance of getting hit by Ernesto next week. It’s not time to signal the all-clear, but if tomorrow morning’s model runs confirm this trend we will probably be in pretty good shape. Unfortunately for others, the storm now appears likely to strike somewhere between New Orleans and the Florida Panhandle.

Here’s what the latest computer model tracks look like:

 
 
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“Chances of Ernesto weakening now slim,” declares the Houston Chronicle’s SciGuy, Eric Berger:

Although it is too early to tell where Tropical Storm Ernesto will make landfall, it’s becoming increasingly clear that the storm will probably not break apart. As a result the entire Gulf Coast must be on alert because a powerful storm is likely to enter the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday morning.

Overnight Ernesto has battled through some difficult wind shear, and instead of weakening it has strengthened to 50 mph winds. Its minimum pressure, a good measure of the storm’s organization, has also steadily dropped, and is now 997 millibars. …

There’s still a chance that wind shear, which should affect Ernesto for about another day, will impair its organization. But if the system remains strong by tomorrow night it will likely survive, and then thrive once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico next week.

And where will it go? Some of the most reliable models turn the storm northward, toward Mobile Bay or even northern Florida. The GFDL model, for example brings it to the Florida Panhandle by Thursday as a category-4 storm. In reality, the storm could land anywhere from Brownsville to southern Florida. The odds of a Houston-area strike, however, appear lower today than yesterday.

Alan Sullivan agrees with the notion of a more easterly track: “It may give New Orleans a scare, but I would bet on a turn toward the Florida Panhandle.” He also says:

Warmth runs deep in the waters of the western Caribbean. Explosive intensification is common there. In the past few years, several storms have spun to great intensity south of Cuba. Last October Wilma became the most violent hurricane ever observed as it passed through that area.

Here’s the map, from The Storm Track:

But, Sullivan points out, “It appears that Ernesto will track a little further north. It may actually cross western Cuba before entering the Gulf.”

As noted yesterday, the water in the Gulf is plenty warm, too. So, how strong will Ernesto get? Charles Fenwick says: “The peak of the intensification forecast by the intensity models have increased, with the SHIPS model raising the storm to 100 mph and the GFDL being more agressive, raising Ernesto to Category 4 strength at 140 mph. The official forecast is an average of the two.” Actually, it’s a conservative “average,” 115 mph.

Getting back to the track forecast… FLhurricane.com says an upper-level low in the northwestern U.S. holds the future of Ernesto’s fate. Unfortunately, the computer models can’t decide what to do with it. Fenwick writes:

I wouldn’t put too much weight on the forecast models until they are fed the upper air data collected by the GulfStream IV and that won’t happen until Sunday evening at the earliest. It would not be surprising to see the NHC continue their neutral hedge [splitting the difference and taking the average of the computer model forecast tracks] until then. People from the Big Bend of Florida to Texas should keep an eye on it this weekend and be thinking about the preparations that they would start making next week if Ernesto were to head their way.

Sayeth the SciGuy: “I’ll stand by my only prediction, however: we won’t know anything truly meaningful about where the storm is going until Sunday night or Monday.”