Michael Barone ponders a McCain-Lieberman ticket, which he thinks would win the 2008 election going away. Though he’s envisioning it as a Republican ticket, not a third-party ticket. Hat tip: InstaPundit, who says of the hypothetical pairing, “I’m not sure how I feel about that — they’re both nanny-staters with whom I’m deeply uncomfortable, but at least they’re sensible on defense.”
[UPDATE: InstaPundit is running a poll: McCain-Lieberman or Giuliani-Romney? The latter is winning in a landslide so far, but only 239 votes have been cast.]
In other Lieberman-related news, Joe is leading Ned 46% to 41% in the first post-primary poll of general-election voters. A poster at Daily Kos implausibly asserts that “we have to consider” 41% to be Lamont’s “floor” and 46% to be Lieberman’s “ceiling.” Umm, wishful thinking much? Yes, it’s possible that Lieberman’s numbers will go down because Schlesinger’s will go up from 6%, and yes, it’s possible that Lamont’s numbers will go up as voters become more familiar with him. It’s also possible that Lamont’s numbers will go down as voters become more familiar with him, and Lieberman’s numbers will go up as Lamont increasingly reveals himself to be, in Dean Barnett’s words, an “empty suit.” To claim that the result of this race is somehow pre-ordained is just silly.
August 12th, 2006 at 12:12:03 pm
I don’t think anyone can say where the ceiling or floor is in this race. However, Brendan’s contention that Lamont will be revealed as an empty suit doesn’t hold water. Folks like Brendan have done a lot to demonize Lamont as a Left-wing moonbat. However, whenever Lamont speaks, he sounds perfectly reasonable and logical. I think this will only help Lamont over time and marginalize his critics.
August 12th, 2006 at 12:35:38 pm
An intriguing thought, but McCain has been prepping himself for a GOP run for (so far) six years. In 2004 he did everything but crawl through broken glass to help the re-election campaign of a man he despises, not least to curry favor with Southern GOPers. So he’s not going anywhere–at least not now, and not until after the South Carolina primaries.
They only conceivable way McCain gets together with Lieberman is if Guiliani or someone beats him out for the nomination. And then you’d have two candidates, each of whom had been rejected by his own party–and now suddenly the pairing is not that all attractive as it once seemed.
August 12th, 2006 at 12:43:17 pm
I’m not sure McCain getting rejected by his own party makes the pairing unattractive. It depends on how he’s rejected. If he’s rejected in favor of a more doctrinaire right-wing candidate, then they have a great narrative to form a centrist third party together. But that’s my scenario, not Barone’s. You’re missing the point of Barone’s scenario, I think — he’s talking about McCain winning the GOP nomination and then reaching across the aisle and picking Lieberman as his running mate, as Kerry supposedly tried to do in 2004 with McCain.
August 12th, 2006 at 1:18:12 pm
Brendan - the “empty suit concept goes back a long time … you might well enjoy reading about ‘toom tabard’ …
Personally, I like the Giuliani-Rice ticket even better … it gives apoplexy to *all* the right people !
August 12th, 2006 at 1:27:27 pm
The floor/ceiling comment is probably accurate because– no, not because I want Lamont to win– Lieberman’s base is already aware of his campaign. He’s been in Connecticut for 18 years. If you’re from Connecticut and you haven’t heard of Lieberman, you’ve been living under a rock. Lamont and his message may still be somewhat unknown to a small percentage of the Connecticut people, including some Lieberman supporters who might like what they hear from Lamont.
But in my opinion the gist of the comment is that the race is Lieberman’s to lose. Strategically speaking, Lamont has the job of chipping away at Lieberman’s base of support. So in that sense, the comment seems accurate, unless Lieberman runs an especially tough campaign that really undercuts Lamont significantly.
August 12th, 2006 at 1:56:49 pm
First, I don’t believe McCain or Guiliani will get the nomination. I think that will go to some right-leaning southern Governor - or former Governor - like George Allen. Second, if McCain were to get the nomination, picking a Democrat - ANY Democrat - as his VP would prompt open warfare within the Republican Party since many Christian Right would have to bite their tongues to begin with regarding McCain. McCain going off the reservation for a VP would prompt an explosive response.
August 12th, 2006 at 3:18:38 pm
McCain-Lieberman, the all-prostitute ticket. These guys will provide sexual services for anyone who promises to remember their names.
Lieberman is toast now, so what is he going to do two years from now to resurrect himself from being the guy who had every possible advantage and still lost an election to a guy no one had heard of a few weeks earlier?
Only possibility for Joe de Ho NoMentum to remain in the public eye will be an appointment to a position in the administration, because there is no possibility of him winning in November with his Party of One. Kissing even further up to the Worst. President. Ever. is not going to get him any more votes than he already has, which are currently limited to blood relatives. His in-laws are on the fence.
McCain-Lieberman? Good one. You almost had me going for a minute.
August 12th, 2006 at 3:29:02 pm
the race is Lieberman’s to lose.
Considering the ineptitude of his recent campaign while outspending the opponent 3-1, incumbent, name recognition, every important pol endorsing him, Big Pharma funneling money through his wife, bet the rent and the kid’s college fund on it and get the best odds you can right now before they plummet.
Lieberman’s problem, which is the same for a lot of other people running in November, is that he is out of touch with the mainstream of America and refuses to address reality. If 65% of the voting public regrets the invasion of Iraq and the damage that decision has made to our country, the few remaining nutwingers clinging to the hope of a “solution” in Iraq are all he can count on, and that number shrinks daily.
August 12th, 2006 at 3:38:06 pm
Repack-
To your point, Lieberman is now saying he wants to end the war. How? When? What are the specifics?
I think most Americans would still support this war if it appeared there was an actual plan for victory in place. But the whole idea of letting our folks get killed while a low-grade civil war churns and promising everything will be better after the next; A) election; B) constitution; C) terrorist/insurgent leader is killed/captured - just won’t cut it anymore.
August 12th, 2006 at 5:57:30 pm
Personally, I like the Giuliani-Rice ticket even better … it gives apoplexy to *all* the right people !
I could live with Rice/Giuliani, but Giulianai/Rice-ugh!
August 12th, 2006 at 6:36:52 pm
Brendan–I was going to deal with Barone’s point, but real life intruded. (Hate it when that happens.) What I was thinking was that the ONLY way they get together with any chance of success is with the prestige of a Big-Party nomination–meaning the GOP, and with McCain at the top. But that brings with it a whole new host of problems.
A whole lot of GOPers who disagree with McCain on a whole host of issues who will vote for him in the primaries. I plan to be one of them; I have thought all along he was dead-wrong on the free-speech restiction known as “campaign finance reform,” but right now (and for the foreseeable future) Iraq, al-Qeada and terrorism trump everyhing.
Would I vote for McCain/Lieberman? Sure. But the political calculation will be the placate the right by bringing in some Haley Barbour Southern GOP type. And yes, perhaps McCain lives to defy political calculation. I just don’t see it.
August 12th, 2006 at 9:04:15 pm
(1) Neither McCain, nor any other aspiring R or D Presidential nominee, can as a Logistical matter Go very deep into 2008 before deciding whether to fold That particular tent and instead launch a 3rd-party drive. (Ask John Anderson about 1980.) IOW if (contrary to history since at least 1976, arguably since 1960) it turns out to be a Competitive race that doesn’t get effectively Resolved fairly early in the year by the primaries, then you can’t Wait to find out whether You Lose later on, and most Certainly not Postpone so long as ’til (gasp!) the actual Convention which in fact confers the legal Nomination. Because if you so Defer your decision & then Lose your Party’s contest Late in the game, by now you’re TOO LATE! :> to Successfully begin petitioning for 3rd-party ballot placement in a goodly number of States, including some Biggies. [Recall that last time around, despite being Not Hardly a Major-party contender, Ralph Nader dilly-dallied until April before Launching ~ and accordingly Missed the ballot in quite a few states.]
So: McCain, if you’re going to Bolt after losing the Republican contest, be sure to Lose Early. (In furtherance whereof, may I suggest a denunciation of Ethanol at the Iowa State Fair currently underway; followed up by a strong endorsement of progressive state income taxes in New Hampshire; and of the study of Darwinian Evolution As A Religion in the Public Schools in South Carolina. :)
(2) At just one-year-plus into his 4th consecutive term, I somehow doubt that U.S. Senator Joe Lieberman (CfL-CT / voting with D Senate Caucus) is going to be terribly anxious to Jump ship Again so soon, for to run for VPOTUS on either a Republican or a new Third-party ticket. :}
Repack Rider, I Don’t doubt than you are a Sane & Intelligent individual; but I do suspect that your Analytical capabilities are presently Impaired by Ideology. / May I suggest that you Reflect upon the (all-things-being-relative :) Rational squeakings of A Nun Mouse, hereinabove, particularly those in said cheesethief’s 2nd paragraph. [Helloooo, Mister Sister Mickey!!! ;]
Having on August 3 been poll-forecasted to Lose the Aug. 8 Democratic primary by 13 percentage points, Saint Joe lost it by (speaking of Squeakers) 03.6. I.e. he won 48.2% of the vote in the DEMOCRATIC Party statewide-office primary with the Highest turnout (42.9%) in the History of all such primaries in State of Connecticut.
Now, Joe presents his case not just to the Dimmycrats ~ Almost half of whom Agreed, at least sufficiently so to Support him ~ but to the General electorate. / Watch his Dust. You think Joe’s 46% - in the immediate 2-day-aftermath Bump of Ned’s narrow D primary win ~ is his Ceiling? What, ain’t chyooh Nevvuh seen a FLOOR? :>
August 12th, 2006 at 9:44:31 pm
Big Joe: I thik you laid it out. Lieberman wins the Senate and becomes the Dems’ Chafee, tolerated for his caucus vote while exasperating his brethren, the retiring on his own (four) terms in 2012.
BTW: What’s to prevent Lieberman from simply winning in November, then ala Richard Shelby, simply joining the party of his choice (Dems) the day after election day? Would Harry Reid keep him out?
Looking ahead, this Presidential campaign is looking like how the American League was a few years ago, and for a few years, with everyone tapping their toes, waiting for the season to play out so the Red Sox could again meet the Yankees in the playoffs. McCain with Barbour (or a Barbour clone), Hillary with Grand Old Man From Central Casting. All this is dithering, folks. Let’s Get it ON.
August 12th, 2006 at 11:48:55 pm
Repack Rider, I Don’t doubt than you are a Sane & Intelligent individual; but I do suspect that your Analytical capabilities are presently Impaired by Ideology.
I’m saying that Joe had every possible advantage in the primary, and lost anyway. Which part of that do you disagree with?
Having on August 3 been poll-forecasted to Lose the Aug. 8 Democratic primary by 13 percentage points, Saint Joe lost it by (speaking of Squeakers) 03.6. I.e. he won 48.2% of the vote in the DEMOCRATIC Party statewide-office primary with the Highest turnout (42.9%) in the History of all such primaries in State of Connecticut.
We agree that Lamont won and Lieberman Lost. Joe doesn’t though.
Now, Joe presents his case not just to the Dimmycrats
I think your vocabulary is being corrupted by ideology.
Almost half of whom Agreed, at least sufficiently so to Support him ~ but to the General electorate.
That was before he told Democratic voters that what they thought was not important to him, and he still had all that money and endorsements from Clinton and Boxer and Obama, before he had the stink of loser on him, and before he started whining about wanting a do-over and acting like the embarrassing old uncle who gets drunk at weddings and cries. That was before his campaign staff, inept as they turned out to be, quit en masse.
His recent infantile behavior hasn’t helped his image. Who is going to vote for him? Republicans? They have their own candidate. The Democrats have chosen theirs and Clinton and Boxer and Obama are now lining up behind him. Joe is a Party of One with no endorsements. Who is going to run his campaign and give up any possible shot at working for a winner?
Watch his Dust. You think Joe’s 46% - in the immediate 2-day-aftermath Bump of Ned’s narrow D primary win ~ is his Ceiling? What, ain’t chyooh Nevvuh seen a FLOOR? :>
Please. Lieberman is toast. Him dead man, still walkin’, don’ know it yet.
August 13th, 2006 at 12:03:28 am
I think most Americans would still support this war if it appeared there was an actual plan for victory in place
I do not agree, since no one has ever described the conditions or parameters that constitute “victory.” How can people plan for something they have not yet described?
This exposes the sham that is Iraq. We invaded the place without even figuring out what winning was supposed to consist of. How could anyone possibly be as stupid as George W. Bush and company? (Shakes head)
In addition, many of the lies that were told to support the invasion have been exposed, further eroding the public’s confidence.
A few years ago when I pointed out that Iraq was going to be the worst strategic decision in our history, I was called a traitor or worse, but I have now been completely vindicated. If a guy like me could figure it out, how could so many supposedly smart people be so wrong?
August 13th, 2006 at 11:48:09 am
“I think your vocabulary is being corrupted by ideology.”
LOL!!! :) Excellent riposte, RR. :> But No: the true toxic agent is far more fearsome than mere Doctrine. It’s stage-Oirish faux-colloquial Accentedness. Shudder. ;} Of course you Do understand, I speak as a lifelong Dimmycrat meself. / Well. Assuming I’m 10 years old. ;> But it’s True, in a Doctrinal sense. Yes, ’twas in October 1996 that this old reprobate exRepublican got Borned Again. Thanks be to God and Bill Clinton. ;)
Rider, you need to Repack your Facts, they’re getting all Wrinkled, here. :)
“We agree that Lamont won and Lieberman Lost. Joe doesn’t though.”
Of course he does. What, you didn’t hear him concede the D-primary defeat & congratulate Ned on the victory? / What, you DO hear him yelling “FRAUUUD!” and See him Suing for Recounts & Revotes? (But then again, I suppose it’s only the TRUE Democrats who respond to an election loss That way. :)
[his support by 48.2% of Dems in the primary]”…was before he told Democratic voters that what they thought was not important to him, and he still had all that money and endorsements from Clinton and Boxer and Obama, before he had the stink of loser on him, and before he started whining about wanting a do-over and acting like the embarrassing old uncle who gets drunk at weddings and cries. That was before his campaign staff, inept as they turned out to be, quit en masse.”
My my my. / Lieberman publicly announced his November fallback independent-candidacy petition drive on July 3, fully five weeks before the primary. Lamont immediately Squatted upon this and made it a Centerpiece of his campaign, daily raising his bushy Tail for to Spray the aroma of Defeat upon Joe by reminding Democrats of his impending party Treachery ;>. Having thoroughly Absorbed this ubiquitous cologne of Treasonous Losery, a Massive 51.8% Majority of Democrats evidently agreed with
Pepe le PewNed and Nommynated him. :)Of course Lieberman spent the entire primary campaign ~ and came Close to winning it ~ Truthfully telling Democrats that what they think (a) IS important to him and (b) on Most issues (i.e., 90%) is what He thinks ~ and fights for ~ too. / Of course also, he No Longer [in contrast you, as you say, “still”] Has those Highpowered endorsements & Bigtime party funding sources, both of which (out of Political necessity) were for the Primary only. Nor does he have deep Personal Pockets like Ned. / And Joe does not Whine, does not Cry, and does not want a “Do-over”. (You cannot have a “Do-over” unless you’ve already Done it at least Once, and the CT US Senate Election by the CT Electorate hasn’t been Done yet.) / And Joe’s staff did not Quit. He Fired them. ;>
“…Who is going to vote for him? Republicans?”
Among others (see below): Yes.
“They have their own candidate.”
Yes, they Do. Alan Schesinger (6% in the Rasmussen poll :) is Partly why they’re voting Overwhelmingly for Joe. :)
Also Rasmussen finds 35% of Democrats are sticking with Joe; and More of the Unaffiliated voters who are our largest bloc in CT.
“Who is going to run his campaign and give up any possible shot at working for a winner?”
Lady name of Sherry Brown. She’s run all 5 of Joe’s statewide campaigns, except for this Primary one. / The 5 that she ran, he Won. :)
But That aside, RR, you got some Good points, there. :)
August 13th, 2006 at 4:03:49 pm
Either ticket would work to a degree. Prefer Guiliani-Romney however. Rudy has proven leadership qualities and having lived in MA for a while, I can tell you that Romney is the most impressive politician I have seen in a long time. If he were not a Mormon, he would have to be the favorite for president in 2008.
August 14th, 2006 at 8:23:39 am
Of course Lieberman spent the entire primary campaign ~ and came Close to winning it ~ Truthfully telling Democrats that what they think (a) IS important to him
And as soon as they told him they didn’t like him, he told them that their decision was not important to him.
Yes, they Do. Alan Schesinger (6% in the Rasmussen poll :) is Partly why they’re voting Overwhelmingly for Joe.
Thus ripping the mask off Joe’s Republican-lite philosophy. Hey, that will certainly help in a state where Republicans are an endangered species.
All the verbiage, analysis and snark aside, Joe de Ho NoMentum now belongs to the ages, and Ned Lamont will be the Junior Senator from Connecticut come November.