Tropical Depression Ernesto is now centered roughly over Cape Canaveral, Florida, according to the latest radar loop.
Please be patient; the animation may take a moment to fully load.
Ernesto is slowly edging its way off the Florida east coast, as you can see. When it’s finally back fully over water again, it could strengthen:
THE CLOUD PATTERN IS STILL ORGANIZED AND THERE IS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION. THEREFORE…ERNESTO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO RE-INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY ONCE IT MOVES OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AS SUGGESTED BY GUIDANCE.
The forecast track takes it toward South Carolina. But how strong will it be? Brian Neudorff wonders if Ernesto “still has a hurricane in it.” Dr. Jeff Masters says no:
None of the forecast models or the official NHC forecast are calling for this to become a hurricane, though. The passage over Florida has weakened it to the point where it would take more time over water than Ernesto will have. It is possible that Ernesto will intensify very little, as happened when it popped off the coast of Cuba. The most likely intensity at its second landfall in South Carolina is 40-55 mph.
Mark Sudduth at Hurricane Track is a bit more bullish about Ernesto’s prospects. Charles Fenwick stays out of that debate, but takes an interesting look at how the various computer models performed in predicting the storm’s first landfall.
But getting back to Dr. Masters, he’s covering the real big tropical stories of the hour: Hurricane John and Supertyphoon Ioke, both in the Pacific. John is a Category 4 monster off the coast of Mexico, and is expected to “move parallel to the coast over the next two days, but close enough to bring hurricane force winds to the coast at times. Any slight deviation towards the coast will bring the hurricane’s dangerous core ashore, and would make John one of the strongest hurricanes ever to hit the Pacific coast of Mexico.”
But could John affect California? I haven’t heard any serious talk about a SoCal hurricane (or, more realistically, tropical storm) since 1997, when mighty Hurricane Linda threatened San Diego (but ultimately went out to sea). Now, however, Dr. Masters is talking about the possibility — though he thinks it’s unlikely:
Water temperatures along the Pacific coast of Mexico are 1-2 degrees C above normal all the way to the California coast, giving 2006 the possibility of allowing a tropical storm to reach California. It is very rare for an Eastern Pacific storm to move far enough north to affect the Arizona or California. Since 1900, only four tropical cyclones have brought tropical storm force winds to the Southwestern United States: an unnamed tropical storm that made landfall near Long Beach, CA, in 1939 (52 mph winds south of L.A.); the remnants of Hurricane Joanne in 1972; the remnants of Hurricane Kathleen in 1976 (76 mph wind gust at Yuma, AZ); and the remnants of Hurricane Nora in 1997. In addition, a hurricane just missed making landfall in October 1858 and brought hurricane force winds to San Diego and tropical storm force winds all the way to Los Angeles.
In order to affect California, a tropical cyclone would have to be moving quickly, so the the cold waters off the coast would not weaken it too fast. The alternative would be for the storm to barrel up the narrow Gulf of California, where water temperatures remain warm all the way to the end. [Such a storm wouldn’t actually make landfall in the U.S., but it would quickly cross into southeastern California or southern Arizona; see map. -ed.] To my knowledge, no such storm has ever been able to shoot more than half way up the narrow Gulf of California before dashing itself to pieces on the rugged terrain on either side. I’d be surprised if John manages to bring tropical storm force winds to the U.S.
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Categories: 2006 Hurricane Season
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August 30th, 2006 at 8:24:38 pm
Jesus H. Christ on the cross! Can’t we control our borders?!? Quick, someone pass some legislation. I don’t care if this illegal alien weather event is just following the laws of economics thermodynamics, this is a national security issue!
August 30th, 2006 at 8:29:02 pm
Extremely not bloody likely. Seriously, the currents mean our water is as cold as if it was pipelined straight from Alaska. It’s not until you get halfway down Baja before our water is even as warm as the New Jersey coast, usually. On the other hand, many a hurricane has spun out to sea halfway up Baja and produced some spectacular sets for local surfers. I recall either the fall of my junior or senior year in high school (Nora maybe?) when a very large hurricane produced 10-15 ft* waves, and having no classes after lunch, I went out, grabbed some Taco Bell, and sat on the pier watching a bunch of crazy surfers try to catch them. The waves were so massive, they were breaking near the end of the pier near the top of the pilons and spraying us onlookers. The surfers, meanwhile, struggled for thirty minutes or more just go get into a position where they could catch a wave. Of course, almost all the surfers stayed on the north side of the pier, due to the current and slant of the sets, which would quickly take any surfers on the south side and bring them right into the pier’s pilons before too long.
*Hawaiians typically measure wave height from the front of the crest, while Californians typically measure wave height from the back. Thus, a 10 ft wave in CA is more like a 15-17 ft wave in Hawaii. Additionally, because waves break in CA off the gentle slope of the beach towards shore (with some sandbars here and there), the waves are thicker and more powerful, whereas in Hawaii and most other global surf spots, the waves break off of reefs. Thus, when you’re talking about surfing 10-15 ft waves in CA, you’re basically asking for death.
August 30th, 2006 at 9:52:56 pm
I also believe California experienced Tropical Storm Normal sometime in the late 70s or early 80s. I recall getting very sick of all the “Stormin’ Norman” quips. Perhaps it was something less than a tropical storm, but I do remember a lot of wind and rain for a summer’s day!
August 30th, 2006 at 10:17:15 pm
Dude . . . Hurricanes in SoCal? Aren’t they built up for earthquakes? I suspect a piddling hurricane shouldn’t be a problem for earthquake proof buildings. ;)
Also, Ernesto is ruining my weekend - I WAS going to the beach with my family, but he’s going to be raining on our beach Friday and Saturday - CURSE YOU ERNESTO!!!!!!! (We were going to the Eastern Shore in Maryland.)
I hope he suddenly decides to go out to sea tomorrow, because that’s when the final decision will be made.
August 31st, 2006 at 1:22:18 am
“o my knowledge, no such storm has ever been able to shoot more than half way up the narrow Gulf of California before dashing itself to pieces on the rugged terrain on either side.”
Katrina did.
No, seriously, EPAC Katrina of 1967. You can look it up.
August 31st, 2006 at 1:32:57 am
Socal’s ocean water is too cold to allow a hurricane to effect us, i believe it has never happended in recored history, altho we get the rem effects such as T-Storms and evelvated humidity levels….And your correct about the terrain, mountains surround us from every side, we only get the basic ground movement, up and down, sideways….Shake and Bake is Socal’s Style….Add flash flooding and you get the whole deal for one low price!!
September 2nd, 2006 at 1:51:19 am
While it’s doubtful that John will make it up here with hurricane strength, under the right set of circumstances it’s certainly possible. Consider that the water temperature off the Southern California coast in July edged into the mid to high 70’s, and combine that with the forward speed of a Kathleen and you could get Category 1 or 2 storm into Southern California. It’s unlikely, but it may be more likely than having a strong (M6.5 to 7.0) earthquake there, something that most people would think is the greater risk. I also remember “Stormin’ Norman,” and although it was still producing storm-force winds when it came ashore, it had been downgraded to a depression, perhaps prematurely. Kathleen was very close to hurricane strength when it moved into the Imperial Valley, even though it had also been downgraded to a depression.
September 16th, 2006 at 6:09:30 pm
Ernesto Over Cape Canaveral; Hurricane John Eyes California
After doing damage through the Carribean, Hurricane Ernesto pouring rain on the east coast while Hurrican John is about to savage Baja California….