As of 2am EDT (11pm MST), Tropical Storm Alberto is still with us, and still at tropical-storm strength — though the latter conclusion is based on a generous assumption, as the NHC admits in its discussion: “THE 40-KT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE RECON AIRCRAFT MAY NOT HAVE SAMPLED STRONGER WINDS TO THE EAST OF THE FLIGHT TRACK WITHIN SOME OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION.” Translation: “the objective data doesn’t support the conclusion that this storm has the winds we’re saying it does, but we’re going to ignore that for the moment.”

According to the official forecast track, landfall is expected to occur around midday Tuesday near Cedar Key, Florida. But as Hurricane Track points out, “Because the center of circulation is currently not covered in deep thunderstorms, the passage of it will be anti-climactic. Most of the weather associated with Alberto will impact Florida tomorrow and tomorrow night.”

Hurricane Track’s 10:50 PM EDT update also states, “Once past Florida, there is some question as to what happens with Alberto. You don’t even want to know what the afternoon run of the famous GFDL model showed. It was absurd.” Naturally, I was curious, so I checked it out, and saw that the GFDL’s 18Z run had Alberto strengthening over land into a borderline Category 1-2 hurricane in south-central Georgia. Heh! (The 00Z run makes a little more sense, showing Alberto nearly falling apart, then getting his act together and making landfall as a Cat. 1 hurricane, then weakening over Georgia and then — presumably after transitioning to an extratropical storm — exploding into an intense storm as it exists the North Carolina/Virginia area, and becoming a major nor’easter off the New England coast. All very interesting, and less “absurd” than what the 18Z run showed… but still probably pretty unlikely.)

I’m going to bed now, and will be working (and thus not blogging) all day tomorrow, but hopefully my hurricane guestbloggers will be able to post a few updates… and in the mean time, I encourage everyone to check out the sites on my “hurricane blogroll” at right. Most of them are posting Alberto updates at least a few times a day.