Am I crazy, or does it appear on the radar loop that Tropical Storm Alberto has slowed down and taken a last-minute eastward — or even east-southeastward — jog?

Not that it really matters much at this point. Although Alberto’s center remains just offshore, most of the heavy weather — such as it was — has already occurred, in squalls well ahead of the center. And, as noted earlier, the winds have not lived up even to the modest expectations of a strong tropical storm; for whatever reason, the flight-level winds detected by hurricane-hunter aircraft haven’t translated down to the surface at the normal 90% ratio. Dr. Jeff Masters reported at 9:10 AM EDT (6:10 MST) that surface stations were generally reporting sustained winds in the 30-40 mph range (just under tropical storm strength) with gusts to 45 mph or so. Not exactly a fierce wind-maker. (Apropos of which, Glenn Reynolds offers a photo of Alberto’s devastation: “one of several chairs blown over on our deck.” Heh.)

Alberto roars ashore. Well, okay, maybe “roars” is a bit strong. Would you believe “Alberto tiptoes ashore”?

Even the much-ballyhooed storm surge doesn’t appear to be too bad, if the tidal gauges at Cedar Key (tide 4 feet above normal) and Apalachicola (tide 5 inches above normal…heh) are any indication. Masters says areas north of Cedar Key can expect storm surges of up to 7 feet, but… well… if your house can’t withstand a 7-foot storm surge along the Florida coast, I’m sorry but it’s time to move somewhere else. Anyway, “since this is a relatively unpopulated stretch of coast, damage should be relatively low.”

So, Mother Nature’s opening pitch was a slow curve down the middle. Good. Now let’s not get all uppity and start thinking that’s all she’s got in the tank for this year, because I’m pretty sure she’s got some knuckleballs, split-fingered fastballs, and Rob Dibble*-type heaters in her arsenal.

As the guestbloggers and I keep saying, heavy rain is the biggest issue with Alberto — especially if I’m right that Alberto is slowing down (though that doesn’t jive with the forecast, and doesn’t make much sense to me, so I’m guessing it’s either a wobble or a figment of my early-morning imagination). Again, though, the news is relatively good: thus far, the heaviest Doppler-estimated storm totals have been offshore, and I don’t think flooding of the Gulf of Mexico is a terribly big concern; it’s already rather wet. :) See radar totals here, here and here.

Anyway, here’s what Mark Sudduth HurricaneTrack, live on the scene, has to say about Alberto:

I have been traveling between Gainesville, Ocala, Cedar Key and Yankeetown since about 10pm Monday night. I can tell you that from what I observed, Alberto was not much more than a rain maker with a few wind gusts and some storm surge flooding. The tropical storm was certainly not the big newsmaker that it was hyped to be- and that is great news. The season’s first storm has brought with it beneficial rain with some gusty winds here and there. The highest wind speed I recorded was 44mph on the Tahoe’s RM Young anemometer at Cedar Key around 12:14 am EDT. The rain had all but quit at the time and in fact, the Moon was out every now and then. I have seen reports of possible tornadoes- but hopefully they will be few and far between. The big story with Alberto now will be the continued heavy rain and severe weather threat from northern Florida into Georgia and the Carolinas. It does not look like the storm will do too much once it clears Florida- but we will certainly keep a close eye on it. I have posted a video clip of some of my observations at Cedar Key. Aside from 1 billion frogs and toads on the roads tonight, there really wasn’t much to report on. However, the season is young and I am sure that Floridians are quite aware that more potent storms and hurricanes could be seen later in the season.

Amen to that. Hopefully no one uses this relative dud of a tropical storm as an excuse to be complacent in the coming months, nor refuses to evacuate the next time around because this evacuation ultimately proved unnecessary. If you evacuate for ten storms and it only proves necessary once, it’s worth it.

So… what else is out there? Do we have a candidate for Beryl? According to AccuWeather:

Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin, we are tracking tropical waves along 29 west south of 11 north, along 57 west south of 14 north and along 83 west south of 14 north. The first and third waves are moving west at about 15 knots or about 6 degrees longitude per day, while the second wave along 57 west is moving west at nearly 20 knots or close to 8 degrees longitude per day. This wave along 57 west continues to look somewhat more organized than all waves we have been tracking this season thus far. This wave will bring squally rainfall to the Lesser Antilles during Tuesday and Tuesday night.

According to the NHC, though, “TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.”

*I mention Dibble in spite of the one obvious, glaring flaw in his character: he went to Southington High. Alas.