Reports from the right-wing website WorldNetDaily should always be taken with several grains of salt (more on that below), but this particular report is sensational and specific enough that I thought it was worthy of a mention:

There is a high likelihood of a major terrorist attack next Sunday, say international terror analysts and intelligence sources.

The warning is made on the basis of several factors, according to Joseph Farah’s G2 Bulletin:

* There is increased “chatter” in the terrorist world about a major new attack in the West — a sign often leading to an impending strike;

* The date Feb. 5 has been specifically referenced in some of this chatter;

* The date is significant to Osama bin Laden;

* Much of the western world will be watching television that day;

* The release of al-Qaida videotapes seems to provide clues about the dates of future attacks and, in this scenario, Feb. 5 becomes the most likely near-term terror strike date.

Terror attacks seem to follow the release of al-Qaida videos by about 30 days. … Zawahiri released his last video Jan. 6, making Feb. 5 the most likely target date, according to past attacks. Some analysts suggest the release of communiqués by both al-Zawahiri and bin Laden might be the precursor to a mega-attack — something even rivaling Sept. 11 in scope and devastation. …

Zawahiri, bin Laden’s right-hand man, who narrowly escaped death in the Pakistani missile attack weeks ago, seems to release videos in pairs. After the release of the second video, within 30 days a major event occurs.

For instance:

* release dates of Sept. 9 and Nov. 9, 2004, were the first set of videos, followed by the Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, bombings Dec. 6.

* release dates of Feb. 20 and June 26, 2005, were followed by the July 7, 2005, London bombings.

* release dates of Aug. 4 and Sept. 1, 2005, were followed by the Bali bombings Oct. 1, 2005.

The next set started Oct. 23, 2005, and on Jan. 6, the second video followed.

That, suggests some analysts, makes Feb. 5 a likely target date. Interestingly, it is also a significant date to bin Laden. Feb. 5, 1989, was the day the last Soviet troops withdrew from Kabul, Afghanistan, signaling their defeat at the hand of the mujahedeen. Kabul was the capital of Osama’s adopted country and was a major win for him and Islam. Significantly, perhaps, in bin Laden’s audio release he referenced the U.S. withdrawing from Iraq and Afghanistan.

It also happens to be Super Bowl Sunday, when the eyes of the entire world will be watching America.

Authorities in Detroit, where the Super Bowl will be played, are certainly taking the threat of terrorism seriously. According to the FBI and Detroit police, the game will be the focal point of one of the largest security operations in U.S. history, guarding against any threats to Super Bowl XL and aided by more than 50 federal, state and local law enforcement agencies.

Including private security guards, there will be about 10,000 security personnel on duty, more than for any other one-day event in U.S. history. Radiation detectors will be stationed near the stadium. SWAT teams, bomb removal and other specialized law enforcement officials will be on hand.

Despite the recent taped messages, authorities say there are “no credible threats against the Super Bowl.”

Personally, although the 30-day business is interesting, I’d like to hear some elaboration on the statement that “the date Feb. 5 has been specifically referenced in some of this chatter.” Is that really true? Where is Farah getting this information from? Has this been confirmed by multiple sources?

Anyway… above, I mentioned taking Farah’s reports with “several grains of salt.” Here are a few that I found via Technorati:

Grain of salt #1: “Keep in mind [WorldNetDaily] also predicted a suitcase nuke attack last year.” [And I blogged it… although I concluded that “Farah is very probably wrong.” -ed.]

Grain of salt #2: “And remember, we didn’t see this [30-day videotape warning] pattern before either attack on the World Trade Center.”

Grain of salt #3: “Of course, he DOESN’T mention all the tapes that were released WITHOUT an attack 30 days later.”

Grain of salt #4: “The lengths of speculation and coincidence-mongering to which WorldNetDaily has to resort to imply that we should be worried about a major terror attack on the Super Bowl convince me that nothing is going to happen.”

Grain of salt #5: “We’ve heard about increased security before every major sporting event over the past few years. … I’m just not sure this is anything different than we always hear. I mean are these guys going to attack an event with such an overwhelming security presence?”

On the other hand, #5 then adds: “Or would they attack somewhere else in the country while everyone is focused there? Obviously the security force is always needed, at the very least as a deter[rent], but I think the FBI should be looking at the rest of the country too, if these ‘high chatter’ reports are of any real concern.” That seems right to me.

And then there’s this:

The North American Aerospace Defense Command on Thursday practiced its plan to protect Detroit’s Ford Field from an air attack on Super Bowl Sunday…

Hundreds of people, including controllers, fighter pilots, an E-3 Airborne Early Warning and Control System aircraft, several civilian aircraft and air refueling tankers took part in the exercise.

(Hat tip: A.W. Griffin.) Heightened concern about a possible attack, or same old, same old? We report, you decide.

P.P.S. Then there are the conspiracy theories.