I just thought of a scenario where Notre Dame gets left out of the BCS!

Okay, suppose #4 LSU and #5 Virginia Tech both lose their conference championship games on Saturday. They drop in the BCS, and Ohio State, currently #6, rises to #4. Under the “Kansas State rule” — the same rule that got USC into the BCS three years ago, and that pushed Texas ahead of Cal for the Rose Bowl last year — the Buckeyes, as a non-champion from a BCS conference, would now be guaranteed an at-large spot (unless there is another non-champion in the #3 spot — more on that shortly).

Now suppose #1 USC and #2 Texas also lose. Remember that USC, by virtue of tiebreakers, is the Pac-10 champion despite losing to UCLA. But Texas, having lost the conference title game to Colorado, is not the Big 12 champion, and thus is fighting for an “at-large” spot, just like Ohio State… and Notre Dame.

Penn State, currently #3, jumps to #1, leaving the Trojans (11-1), Longhorns (11-1) and Buckeyes (9-2) to fight it out for the #2 spot and a trip to the Rose Bowl.

If USC gets the #2 spot, Notre Dame has no problems, because both of the teams playing in the national title game are conference champions, and only one team can receive an automatic at-large bid under the “Kansas State rule.” If Texas is #3 and Ohio State is #4, the Longhorns get the automatic bid, and Ohio State is just an “optional” at-large team, which means in practical terms that Notre Dame gets in ahead of them. (The mirror image would happen — with the same result for Notre Dame — if Ohio State is #3 and Texas is #4, but I think that’s unlikely.) The Orange Bowl gets first pick, and is free to choose Notre Dame. The Fiesta Bowl and Sugar Bowl are left to divvy up the scraps (Texas and West Virginia).

But now suppose Texas gets the #2 spot, with USC #3 and Ohio State #4 (or vice versa — it doesn’t matter, so long as Texas is in the top 2 and Ohio State is in the top 4). The eight BCS bowl slots are now filled: there are six conference champions, plus two at-large teams: Texas in the national title game, and Ohio State as an automatic at-large qualifier. There are no more at-large spots available — no room at the inn! Notre Dame is left out of the BCS!

(The same holds true if you reverse the Buckeyes and Longhorns — Ohio State gets the #2 spot and Texas is either #3 or #4 — but that seems far less likely. Similarly, it also holds true if USC beats UCLA and stays at #1, while Texas, despite losing to Colorado, finishes ahead of Penn State for #2, leaving the Nittany Lions at #3 and Ohio State at #4. But I don’t think Texas would stay ahead of Penn State after losing to Colorado, so USC probably needs to lose — and fall to #3 or lower — for this “Notre Dame gets left out” scenario to happen.)

The BCS rules are clear. There’s a “Notre Dame exception” the “top six” rule (which applies to non-BCS teams, like Utah last year), but there is no “Notre Dame exception” to the “top four” rule (the “Kansas State rule”), the one that would give Ohio State the final at-large spot under this scenario. See for yourself; the “Kansas State rule” is explained at #4 and #5:

(1) Any at-large team ranked No. 1 or No. 2 in the final BCS standings will play in the BCS national championship game. If both the No. 1 and No. 2 teams in the BCS standings are at-large teams, those teams will play in the national championship game.

(2) Any team from an independent institution, or Conference USA, the Mid-American, Mountain West, Sun Belt, or Western Athletic Conferences, which is ranked third through sixth in the final BCS standings, shall qualify for a berth in one of the BCS games unless more than two teams meet this criterion. If one team other than Notre Dame qualifies for selection under this provision, Notre Dame shall also qualify for automatic at-large selection provided it is ranked in the top 10 in the final BCS standings or has won at least nine games, not including exempted games. If two or more teams other than Notre Dame meet this criterion, Notre Dame shall also qualify for the at-large pool provided it is ranked in the top 10 of the final BCS standings or has won at least nine games, not including exempt contests.

(3) Should the number of teams satisfying the criterion of (2) above exceed the number of available at-large slots, the bowls shall fill the available at-large slots by selecting from among those teams that have met the requirements of (2) above.

(4) If any at-large slots remain unfilled after application of the procedures in (1), (2), and (3) above and the team ranked third in the BCS standings is an at-large team, then the team ranked third in the BCS standings shall automatically fill one at-large slot and play in a BCS bowl.

(5) If any at-large slots remain unfilled after application of the procedures in (1), (2), (3), and (4) above and no at-large team qualifies for automatic selection under (4) above and the team ranked fourth in the BCS standings is an at-large team, then the team ranked fourth in the final BCS standings will automatically fill one at-large slot and will play in one of the BCS bowls.

So there you have it. Notre Dame is left out!

Admittedly, this is all extremely unlikely to happen, since it would require four major upsets on Saturday, two of them absolutely colossal (Colorado over Texas and UCLA over USC). But… what if it does? Where would the Irish, barred from the BCS, go?

To the Gator Bowl, right? Wrong! The Gator Bowl has already invited Louisville!

Okay, then, how about the Insight Bowl? Nope! They’ve already invited Rutgers!

The only bowl with a Big East/Notre Dame tie-in that hasn’t extended a formal invitation yet is the Meineke Car Care Bowl (formerly the Continental Tire Bowl), which is expected to invite either UConn (if the Huskies beat Louisville on Saturday) or South Florida (otherwise). But one supposes they could be “persuaded” to take Notre Dame instead, if the Irish became available. :)

Is it really possible that, if this (again, admittedly extremely unlikely) scenario plays out, Notre Dame could end up playing the #4 or #5 ACC team in Charlotte?!? Or, if not, perhaps one of the bowls whose affiliated conferences don’t have enough bowl-eligible teams, like the Emerald or Music City bowls, could try and snatch up the Irish? (The Emerald, formerly known as the San Francisco Bowl, used to be affiliated with the Big East, but now it’s affiliated with Pac-10 and Mountain West… but thanks to ND’s win over Stanford, there aren’t enough bowl-eligible Pac-10 teams.)

It seems impossible that the 9-2 Irish could conceiveably be headed to such a crappy bowl as the Meineke Car Care, Emerald or Music City, but I can’t see any way around it, unless the Gator Bowl’s offer to Louisville can be rescinded. [Quick, somebody call Professor Kaveny! -ed.]

On the other hand, perhaps the Cotton Bowl — which is supposed to match up a Big 12 team against an SEC team, but which has to wait until after Saturday’s games to extend its invitations anyway — would throw caution (and contracts) to the wind and make a play for Notre Dame, with which it has a historical, if no longer a contractual, relationship. That would make Brooke happy, and it would certainly be better than the Meineke Car Care Bowl!

Anyway, I really have no idea what would actually happen in this ridiculous scenario, and it’s almost certain that we’ll never find out. But it sure is fun to think about. :)

UPDATE: There’s another, slightly less crazy way this could happen. It still requires USC, LSU and Virginia Tech to lose, but not Texas. (Hey, I said slightly less crazy.)

Okay, so USC loses, which means the Trojans, as Pac-10 champions, automatically go to the Fiesta Bowl. Texas is #1, and plays #2 Penn State in the Rose Bowl. USC and Ohio State are #3 and #4, in whatever order. Again, under the “Kansas State rule,” Ohio State is guaranteed an at-large bid. This time, though, both of the title-game participants are conference champions, so there is still one other available, “open” at-large bid, which any team in the BCS Top 12 can fill.

The Fiesta Bowl, picking an opponent for USC, gets to choose from among the entire range of available at-large teams. They could choose Notre Dame, and as I discussed below, I think they probably would. But what if they decide they don’t want an Irish-Trojans rematch? Bowl rematches are usually bad, after all. So now they are left to choose between Ohio State, Auburn and the other available teams. If they pick the Buckeyes, there’s no problem for Notre Dame — the Orange Bowl can proceed to snap up the Irish. But what if the Fiesta Bowl doesn’t like a Trojans-Buckeyes matchup either? What if they want to match up USC against Auburn, to “settle the score” from 2004? Or what if they prefer a USC-Miami showdown, the Team of the ’90s against the Team of the ’00s? That would leave the Orange Bowl in a bind; it would be forced to choose either West Virginia (guaranteed a spot because it’s the Big East champ) or Ohio State (guaranteed a spot because of the “Kansas State rule”). Notre Dame would not be an option, and the Irish would be left out of the BCS.

I said this scenario is “less crazy,” but I suppose it’s probably also “less likely” because, unlike the everybody-loses scenario, it wouldn’t all happen automatically; it would require an affirmative decision by the Fiesta Bowl selection committee that I think they’d be disinclined to make anyway, and even if they were tempted, I strongly suspect that such a decision would never happen because there would be an enormous amount of behind-the-scenes pressure and deal-making, if necessary, to avoid this situation. And anyway, it doesn’t seem like it would take that much convincing to get the Fiesta Bowl to stage a USC-ND or USC-OSU bowl. Neither of those matchups are exactly unattractive.

IMPORTANT UPDATE: I just realized something. If both LSU and Virginia Tech lose, they will probably both fall behind Notre Dame — which is currently #8 in the BCS standings. That would raise Notre Dame up to #6… and the “top 6″ rule gets applied before the “top 4″ (”Kansas State”) rule. So the Irish would automatically qualify ahead of Ohio State!

In order for the Irish to get squeezed out of the BCS, both LSU and Virginia Tech must lose, but at least one of them must stay ahead of Notre Dame in the BCS rankings.

That seems unlikely, given Notre Dame’s favored status in the human polls among two-loss teams. (Only Ohio State is ranked higher.) The most likely possibility would be for LSU, currently ranked #3 in one human poll and #4 in the other, to lose a very close game to Georgia, which is itself ranked #12 and #13 in the polls (unlike Virginia Tech’s opponent, Florida State, which is unranked). LSU, coming off this close loss to a quality team, might perhaps only drop to #6 or #7 — either ahead of Notre Dame, or just barely behind the Irish. The computers might then take over; they don’t like the Irish much, and they might help LSU cling to the #6 spot in the BCS, just ahead of #7 Notre Dame.

But I doubt it. In all likelihood, if LSU and Virginia Tech lose, Notre Dame would be ranked #6 in the BCS, and they would get an “automatic at-large bid” ahead of even a #3 or #4 Ohio State.

IMPORTANT UPDATE #2: No wait, I’m right! I just had another brainstorm. UCLA is currently ranked #11 in the polls and #12 in the BCS. But if they beat USC, obviously they will move up! Indeed, they will probably move ahead of Notre Dame in the polls, won’t they? A one-loss team that beat USC should be ranked ahead of a two-loss team that almost beat USC, right? It’s hard to predict exactly what would happen, but bottom line, I bet UCLA moves up to #5 or #6 in the BCS, leaving Notre Dame at #7 — and out of luck. My crazy wacko scenario lives! :)