[UPDATE: Welcome, Hugh Hewitt readers! For the latest on Wilma, visit my homepage!]
Hurricane Wilma intensified further overnight, deepening to 882 millibars — setting a new all-time record for lowest barometric pressure ever recorded in an Atlantic basin hurricane. The old record was held by 1988’s Hurricane Gilbert (888 mb). Wilma is within 12 millibars of the lowest non-tornadic pressure ever recorded on Earth, 870 mb, set by Sypertyphoon Tip in the western Pacific in 1979.
Many historic things have occurred in the 2005 hurricane season, but meteorologically speaking, this one takes the cake: a 12-hour, 86-millibar pressure drop leading to the all-time strongest Atlantic hurricane ever. As The Storm Track keeps saying: “WOW.”
Dr. Jeff Masters calls Wilma a “freak of nature”:
There has never been a hurricane like Wilma before. With an unbelievable round of intensification that saw the pressure drop 87 mb in just 12 hours, Wilma smashed the all-time record for lowest pressure in an Atlantic hurricane this morning. The 4 am hurricane hunter report put the pressure at 882 mb, easily besting the previous record of 888 mb set in Hurricane Gilbert of 1988. Since no hurricane hunter airplane has been in the eye since then, Wilma may be even stronger now. The eye diameter of Wilma during this round of intensification shrunk as low as 2 nautical miles, which may be the smallest eye diameter ever measured in a tropical cyclone. The only eye I could find close to that small in the records was a 3 nm one, the Category 4 Typhoon Jeliwat in 2000. It’s amazing the hurricane hunters were even able to penetrate the eye–it’s really tough to hit a 2 mile wide eye when you’re flying crabbed over at a 30 degree yaw angle fighting horizontal flight level winds of 185 mph and severe turbulence. This is an incredibly compact, amazingly intense hurricane, the likes of which has never been seen in the Atlantic.
Dr. Masters adds that it’s getting very close to “get the hell out” time: “I expect the evacuation order for non-residents in the Keys will be given today, and the Keys and residents of southwest Florida from Naples southward are at greatest risk from Wilma. Assuming Wilma does hit the Everglades as expected, the Gold Coast of Florida from Miami to West Palm Beach is in for a severe pounding after Wilma crosses south Florida.”
Wilma is not likely to maintain her current intensity through landfall in Florida. In the 5am EDT discussion, the Hurricane Center declared:
DESPITE THE FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT…WILMA IS NEAR ITS MAXIMUM POTENTIAL INTENSITY AND FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS NOT ANTICIPATED. MOST LIKELY…THE SMALL EYE WILL COLLAPSE FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT WEAKENING OR SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES WILL LIKELY CONTROL THE INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS WHILE THE HURRICANE IS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THEREAFTER…ONCE WILMA REACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ENCOUNTERS THE WESTERLIES AND HIGH SHEAR…WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN.
Since then, no further strengthening has been observed. The 11am EDT discussion adds:
THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A DISTINCT OUTER WIND MAXIMUM AND MICROWAVE DATA SHOW A FORMATIVE OUTER EYEWALL. EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES WILL HAVE A STRONG INFLUENCE ON THE INTENSITY OF WILMA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…BUT THESE ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO TIME AND ARE NOT REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. ONCE WILMA ENTERS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE AS IDEAL AS THEY ARE NOW AND SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED…HOWEVER…IT APPEARS THAT WILMA WILL STILL BE A FORMIDABLE HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES FLORIDA.
Specifically, she is forecast to be at 130 mph — a borderline Category 3/4 hurricane — as she approaches the Florida coast on Saturday.
And that’s not all. After Florida, Wilma may threaten New England:
RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS AND NOGAPS ARE SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY OF A THREAT TO NEW ENGLAND. IN THIS SCENARIO…WILMA BECOMES CAPTURED BY A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN FOUR DAYS. THE ECMWF AND IN PARTICULAR THE UKMET…BOTH OLDER RUNS…DO NOT YET INDICATE THIS. THE FIVE-DAY OFFICIAL FORECAST POINT HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY…BUT IS STILL MUCH FARTHER OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND THAN THE GFDL…GFS…AND NOGAPS GUIDANCE.
You can take a look at the individual computer models here.
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Categories: Hurricane Wilma & T.S. Alpha
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October 19th, 2005 at 12:02:55 pm
Wow, that’s amazing. What’s really amazing is that Wilma became so strong so quickly! When I left to go home yesterday at 7, she was still a Cat 2 maybe… this morning she was a Cat 5, and now this afternoon she’s the “strongest Atlantic hurricane ever!”
October 19th, 2005 at 12:13:47 pm
When could it hit Southeast Florida? Is this Sunday?
October 19th, 2005 at 12:20:15 pm
Some stats from the newsgroup uk.sci.weather:
21Z/19th - 970mb - Cat 1
00Z/20th - 954mb - Cat 2
03Z/20th - 945mb - Cat 2
05Z/20th - 901mb - Cat 4
06Z/20th - 901mb - Cat 4
07Z/20th - 892mb - Cat 5
A 44 mb drop in 2 hours!
Wind speeds:
Storm Name Year Month Day Wind Pressure (mb)
CAMILLE 1969 August 17 190 -
ALLEN 1980 August 7 190 899
DOG 1950 September 6 185 -
GILBERT 1988 September 14 185 888
MITCH 1998 October 26 180 905
JANET 1955 September 28 175 -
CARLA 1961 September 11 175 936
ANITA 1977 September 2 175 926
DAVID 1979 August 30 175 924
ANDREW 1992 August 23 175 922
Sorry that isn’t as clear, but it’s 5th in windspeed.
Also, the discussion on that newsgroup mentioned Tip at 868mb, not 870. Not sure which is correct…
Bob
October 19th, 2005 at 12:22:51 pm
OFFTOPIC
Apple’s media event is currently underway at the Javit’s Center in New York. So far no details are avaiable but the online store is currently down, usually inidicating new hardware.
Tried guestblogging this but blogger is being pissy this morning.
October 19th, 2005 at 12:29:17 pm
Brian was right :)
New PowerBooks with higher rez displays:
1440×960 on the 15″, 1660 x 1050 on the 17″ , no change on the 12″.
New PowerMacs with dual core, dual proccesors (essential four proccesors)
Capable of holding 16GB of RAM and 1TB of internal storage.
October 19th, 2005 at 12:34:07 pm
PowerBooks ship today, $1499 for 12″, $1999 for 15″, $2499 for 17″.
SuperDrives (CD-RW, DVD-RW) standard, all are capable of driving a 30″ Cinema display in addition to native display.
October 19th, 2005 at 12:37:55 pm
MacWorld is doing live coverage with more info:
http://www.macworld.com/news/2005/10/19/liveupdate/index.php
October 19th, 2005 at 1:12:57 pm
I wouldn’t exactly say I predicted that Wilma would become this strong, but I did say that the water where Wilma was birthed was so hot you could boil eggs in it.
October 19th, 2005 at 2:52:29 pm
Dude, look at the satellite loop. That tiny little 2nm eye is wobbling around–it’s not even a part of the center of the storm, it’s rotating around it. Have you ever seen anything like that? I haven’t.
October 19th, 2005 at 3:26:56 pm
Hey, re: Apple, is ECC SDRAM worth it?
October 19th, 2005 at 3:35:21 pm
Hey, re: Wilma, “…Wilma may threaten New England…” ~
Maaaaaaaaah! ;>
October 19th, 2005 at 3:42:55 pm
Hey, you sloppy speller, that’s “Supertyphoon Tip”, not “Sypertyphoon Tip”. You should be more careful not to insult supertyphoons.
October 19th, 2005 at 3:49:02 pm
It’s the Russians with their weather controlling supercomputers…
:-)
See this guy here.
October 19th, 2005 at 4:30:44 pm
Dude, I heard that guy speak on the radio, on The John and Ken Show. They skewered him pretty good and made fun of him afterwards. It was quite amusing.
October 19th, 2005 at 7:09:12 pm
So much for the Republics disregard for the environment.