Perennial Big East doormat Rutgers became bowl-eligible today with a win over Navy. Any bowl trip would be Rutgers’s first since 1978 — but with the Scarlet Knights holding a 3-1 record in the Big East, I’m thinking bigger. What are their odds of winning the conference and playing in a BCS bowl?

I love this idea, not only because rooting for underdogs is fun (and Rutgers gives a whole new meaning to the term “underdog”), but because if anything could shake up the BCS (well, aside from a third consecutive year with more than one team having a reasonable claim to the national championship), it’d be Rutgers in the Sugar Bowl.

Unfortunately, Rutgers’s one loss is to West Virginia, which is undefeated in the Big East right now. That means the Mountaineers need to lose twice for the Scarlet Knights to pass them in the standings. (Technically, if West Virginia loses once and both Rutgers and Pittsburgh win out, there would be a three-way tie for first, in which case the bowl representative would be the highest-ranked team among the three, not the head-to-head winner — but it’s inconceivable that Rutgers, with a schedule strength in the 90s and a nonexistent human-poll profile, would be ranked ahead of WVU and Pitt in the BCS.)

In the event of a two-way tie with Pittsburgh, the Scarlet Knights get in because they beat the Panthers head-to-head last month. And the Big East’s other one-loss team, South Florida, plays at Rutgers next week, so if the Knights win out, USF won’t be an issue.

So, to review: if Rutgers wins out (at home vs. South Florida, at Louisville, at home vs. Cincinnati), and West Virginia loses two of its final four games (at South Florida, at home vs. UConn, at Cincinnati, at home vs. Pittsburgh), the Scarlet Knights go to the BCS — probably the Sugar Bowl, according to this article.

Hey, it could happen. :)