Today’s South Bend Tribune has the Michiana version of the “Are we ready?” story, which seems to be an obligatory bit of post-Katrina journalism/sensationalism in every local media market in America these days. When I was in Phoenix last week, I saw an alarmist TV segment about how a breach in the Roosevelt Dam would flood the entire Phoenix Valley, including the downtown area — followed by the admission, almost as an afterthought, that there really isn’t any conceivable Phoenix-area weather phenomenon that could cause the dam to breach. (A large earthquake, maybe, but Phoenix isn’t really prone to large earthquakes. A terrorist attack, perhaps. I hope Al Qaeda wasn’t watching!)
I say “journalism/sensationalism” because there is certainly a good deal of legitimacy to such stories, and it’s important for people to consider these issues — I wish more people in New Orleans, especially the local government, had considered them more seriously before Katrina! — but sometimes the media can take things a bit far with the alarmist tone. Still, I’ll admit the bold headline “Are we ready?” on the front page, above the graphic of an “evacuation route” sign, prompted me to buy today’s Tribune, so I guess it’s working. :)
Anyway, along these lines, I found myself pondering the other day what Becky’s and my emergency evacuation contingency plan should be, in the event we are physically separated (I’m at work/school and she’s at home, or whatever) when suddenly there’s a cataclysmic event that makes it necessary to get out of South Bend, pronto, but that also cuts off the lines of communication, such that we can’t coordinate things remotely and decide what to do as events unfold.
My biggest challenge was imagining exactly what sort of cataclysm I was supposed to be planning for. In order to be worth worrying about for my purposes, the event in question would need to give us only a few hours of lead time to prepare. If it leaves less than that (e.g., a tornado), we can’t evacuate anyway, and if it leaves more than that (e.g., a massive super-storm of some kind), we don’t need the sort of contingency plan I’m talking about, because we can figure things out once the threat emerges. Also, the event in question needs to be capable of cutting off (or at least overwhelming) the lines of communication before the crucial evacuation period comes into play. And it needs to be the sort of thing where we’re leaving the area entirely, not just, say, fleeing a localized flash flood, because in that case there’s less need to coordinate our movements. (If I’m at work and Becky has to flee to Notre Dame Stadium or something, we can always hook up later. But if she has to flee to Buffalo, that’ll be a bit tougher.)
There are really only three kinds of non-coastal disasters I can think of which could potentially meet these criteria: earthquakes, nuclear accidents and terrorist attacks. An earthquake, of course, leaves you no advance lead time to prepare, but getting the hell out of Dodge in the aftermath may be very important because of fires, chemical leaks and the like. However, even an 8.5 earthquake on the New Madrid fault would produce only minor damage in South Bend: “Felt by all, many frightened. Some heavy furniture moved; a few instances of fallen plaster. Damage slight.” Not a pleasant walk in the park, but not a “get the hell out” scenario, either. So I’m not too worried about earthquakes.
That leaves nuclear accidents — say, a Chernobyl-style Michigan City* meltdown on a day with a stiff wind blowing from west to east — and terrorist attacks. Because a terrorist attack in the low-value target of South Bend seems exceedingly unlikely (unless you consider the USC passing game a terrorist organization), and because a biological attack (e.g., smallpox) is unlikely to cut off the lines of communication, I am thinking mostly of nuclear terrorism in a nearby city which could produce a radioactive cloud that we would need to quickly flee. Since this is, for all practical purposes, the same worry as my Michigan City Chernobyl* scenario, we can consolidate them into one scenario: the Brendan Loy Nuclear Nightmare.
*CORRECTION: The Michigan City power plant is coal-powered, NOT nuclear-powered! My apologies for the error! So I guess it’s a Berrien County Chernobyl, and a stiff wind blowing from northwest to southeast, that I should be worried about. (Map.)
So, what’s the contingency plan? We have no worries in terms of places to evacuate to: if we need to go east, we have friends and family in Buffalo and, if we need to go further than that, Connecticut; if we need to go south, we have family in Indianapolis and, if we need to go further than that, at least one friend in Atlanta; if we need to go west, we’ve got family in Chicago and Wisconsin, and hell, we can go visit David in Seattle if we really need to get away :); and if we need to go north, well, I’m sure we can find some friendly Michiganian or Canuck to take us in. :)
No, my question isn’t where do we go — once we’re together and in the car, we can get where we need to go, assuming the local authorities do what needs to be done to keep the roads moving (something that’s out of our control, obviously). My question is how do we find each other, if we’re separated when disaster strikes (which is, after all, the whole underlying premise of this exercise)? Suppose I’m at work and Becky’s at home with the car. My first impulse, if disaster were to strike, would be to leave work and get home the fastest way I can, whether that’s hitching a ride with someone, jumping on a bus, or simply walking. Becky’s first impulse, presumably, would be to drive downtown and get me. If we can’t communicate, these dueling impulses could be disastrous. I might make it home and find that she’s not there — because she’s across the street from my office. Or she could get stuck in evacuation traffic, and then I’d have no idea where she is.
Since lack of communication means that neither of us can be 100% certain where the other one is, I figured the best contingency plan is the simplest: wherever each of us is when we find out about the disaster, we immediately head home. We meet up there, and then we evacuate. Unless one of us is much further afield than usual, this should entail a delay of no more than an hour. (Where I work is about an hour’s walk from our apartment, I think.) I suggested this plan to Becky, and she agreed. Meeting up at home is a highly sensible idea anyway, since that’s where the animals are. Assuming the person at home is the one with the car, the delay in waiting for the other person to arrive should allow just enough time to load Robbie, Toby, Sasha and Butter into the Camry. :) I’m afraid we might have to leave the fish to their own devices, though…
Anyway, I wonder: does anyone else think about this sort of thing, or am I just a freak? :) I remember when Becky and I were at USC in the aftermath of 9/11, I was worried about a smallpox attack on Disneyland or some such place, and we agreed that if there was even the slightest hint of talk in the media about strange diseases in southern California, we would immediately jump in the car and book it to her parents’ place in Arizona — hopefully before the authorities would have time to quarantine the state! I never really thought about what we’d do if we were physically separated when the need to evacuate arose, though. I always assumed that I could just call her on my cell phone. I guess the Blackout of 2003 taught me that particular lesson.
I’ll tell you one thing. If Becky and I ever have to evacuate South Bend, and it is possible to get through via cell phone, I promise I will blog it. :)
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Categories: Uncategorized
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October 5th, 2005 at 4:21:45 pm
Yes, actually you are just a freak.
What about floods? Is South Bend near any rivers that could rise from extreme rains?
What if Satan opens a crack in the ground and swallows Touchdown Jesus?
What if it’s the rapture?
:-P
October 5th, 2005 at 4:38:23 pm
Reader since Katrina, first time poster.
Well, while I do not have a S/O to worry about, I do have my parents two towns over, and they are both not 100% healthy.
I live in Maine. On the coast. I’ve lived through two hurricanes, one “100 year” ice storm and one “100 year” rain storm here. Of course, just as with you in Indiana, communication is key for any disaster planning.
To get to my family I have two bridge options to get over to their town (about 4 miles, or ~10 mins away). Otherwise, its a long round-about loop, probably involving highway driving. Heavy rain? Major ice storm? Bridges wouldn’t be passible. If they were, they’d be clogged. We would have to meet inland somewhere. Even then, driving in a major ice storm…? If it wasn’t for the cold, I would almost say walking would be safer.
Of course, don’t even get me worrying about a tsunami from a mud slide from the Mid-Atlantic… Our one nuke plant has been shut down. But if VT’s or NH’s go up (or down?), then perhaps towards Canada would be our only option.
Perhaps a hand-crank radio from a place like, say, L.L. Beans would help slightly with communications? (Sorry, had to plug a bit!)
But yes, some of us have kept the emergency planning idea sheltered in the back of our heads.
-Geoff: U. of Maine Law, 2L
October 5th, 2005 at 4:41:28 pm
What if, dare I say it…
(Wednesday on CBS…)
LOCUSTS!
October 5th, 2005 at 5:12:57 pm
With my wife’s office across from the White House, I think about things like this quite a bit.
We have a plan which, as recommended by many, involves her first staying put to ascertain the type of attack. Staying put is often the most sensible thing to do.
A biological or chemical attack will more likely than not result in her staying put until proper evacuation can be undertaken. A random plane crash or terrorist attack isn’t something she wants to be outside to witness. She also has a rather substaintial evacuation kit at her office in a small backpack, including a few basic essentials and a bit of cash.
Actually, East is probably not your best bet out of South Bend. Given the wind patterns over South Bend, whatever calamity (be it nuclear or biological or chemical) is more than likely to follow the winds in that same direction. And on top of that you are going to have to go through major city after major city on your way to Conneticut, and the fleeing masses from each.
If I was to pick a direction (without thinking about it much) I’d head to West Laffayette. The road to Indy will handle most of the S.Bend traffic. Directly west (the tollway) will likely be clogged. Toward Goshen and the SE might have fallout issues. I’d probably head SW toward Purdue and the University of Illinois on the backroads. Not only is there a road every mile (E/W/N/S–thank you Northwest Ordinace) but to the SW is probably heading to the least population of all directions.
SMS is our preferred communication system, as the messages keep trying to get through even when voice cannot. 1-800-CALL-ATT is also what we would use for long distance, as it is a different trunk than normal long distance on a cell phone (I discovered this first hand while running around the Pentagon on 9-11).
But in answer to your question, yes you are a freak. So am I. But we live in freakish times…
October 5th, 2005 at 5:14:35 pm
Brendan, I have no emergency plan in place, but I have been thinking about what to do in an emergency, so you are not totally a freak–at least not for thinking up the Brendan Loy Nuclear Nightmare, although you might very well be a freak for other reasons :)
I have been thinking, even before Katrina, but even more so after Katrina, about getting a gun for self-defense in the event that a major earthquake or major terrorist attack strikes. The Sacramento area does have flood issues, but I do not live in a flash flood area.. and I would leave if the local authorities said that dangerous floods were heading my way. I live towards the end of town, right next to two major interstates–the 5 and the 80–and ten minutes from the airport, so I think I could get out and head north. I would not try to go through downtown only to hit even more populated areas south of Sac (let’s be clear here, Sac, south Sac and Stocktom are the only poulation south of me. After Stocktom, there is nothing until you hit LA five hours later hehe). Andrew is not here so I can just pack up and leave, although maybe my roomie and I need to come up with a meet-up plan like yours, because she is the type that would evacuate if something major happened, so we could leave together. As for when I am back in LA/OC, there is, like no point in planning, in such a large metropolitan nightmare area, all I can do is hope that a terrorist atatck on the ports does not wipe out Andrew, or that an attack on the nuclear plant in San Onofre does not kill my family (then again, one would think that the Marine base should be able to prevent such an attack). I remember thinking about emergency plans during the 2003 blackout, because I almost got caught in a subway train when the power went out, and because while I was back at my aunt’s place, I did not know where my cousin and Jaime where–no phones–and we barely made it to the airport because no phones meant no way for calling cabs, and no power meant my uncle’s car trapped in the garage. I did not walk all of Manhattan a la Brendan, but I did have to figure out a way to get around and out of town, hehe.
October 5th, 2005 at 5:24:10 pm
I really didn’t want to get a gun, but given that my area is basically an evacuation area for DC, I’ve started to consider it. After watching idiots fight for gasoline in Houston, I sort of said to myself “maybe now, just for the home.”
We’ll see.
October 5th, 2005 at 5:27:03 pm
Living in Houston we formulated a plan following Katrina. Thank god we did because we had no idea that Rita would follow a month later.
Our plan was to go to friends house in Austin. we planned what to do with the house. Where my daughter would go (she is 18 and went with her BF to his Grandmothers house in Brenham TX). etc.
As far as communication goes. We had an out of state contact….My mother in law in NY. One other thing we decided to do was to bring a handgun in the car. Although it was not needed I felt much more comfortable. Desperate people can behave badly under certain circumstances.
A plan takes only a few minutes to formulate and it is well worth it. Our plan worked flawlessly except for traffic which was beyond our control. It took us 21 hours to drive the 166 miles from Houston to Austin.
October 5th, 2005 at 5:28:49 pm
Andrew, I know exactly what you mean. I think guns are scary, and I never wanted one in my own home. I am all for the right to bear arms, I just did not want one for myself, in my house, but after watching the documentary on the aftermath of Andrew in south Florida in 1992, followed a week later by the Katrina aftermath in New Orleans, I have been thinking, desperate times call for desperate masures.
October 5th, 2005 at 5:29:12 pm
That last one was me.
October 5th, 2005 at 5:31:21 pm
If Brendan is a Freak then I want to be a freak too!
Ever since 9/11 I have been working on my families emergency plan.
Things I have already done:
If a car get away if feasible:
Purchased a fully self contained Cab Over Camper that sleeps 6 , is always
fully stocked with supplies and two full tanks of gas in the trucks tanks.
If a Car Get away is not possible because of grid lock but getting away is a must:
Purchased two large scooters that seat two people and a motorcycle that seats two people
Everyone in the house has been licensed to drive the scooters / motorcycle
The bikes are always full of gas and have some supplies in their small storage compartments
Purchased a backpack emergency supply kit that can be taken if we use the bikes.
If we have to shelter at home:
Have purchased enough canned and dry foods to last several months
I keep those supplies fresh and replenished.
We have a natural underground cave under our home which is built into a hill side that is basically rock.
Under the house we have internet connection, blankets and food from our storage cabinets could be thrown
down there in minutes.
There are other things but I am always adding to my plan.
I always hope nothing will happen but I do not want to kick myself is something does and I was not prepared.
If nothing happens we still enjoy the camper, bikes and food :)
October 5th, 2005 at 5:36:45 pm
wow, bikes! Toni, you are out of a movie! In Deep Impact only the lucky lotto winners and those on bikes made it.
October 5th, 2005 at 5:37:57 pm
Oh and we have a huge gas generator :)
Being in the San Francisco Bay area with Earthquakes it is akways a good idea to be oreoaird cause the big one is comming ya know!
October 5th, 2005 at 5:38:42 pm
oh spell check not used :) sorry was in a hurry
October 5th, 2005 at 5:47:54 pm
Brendan, you’re not a freak. We just did emergency preparedness focus groups in Baltimore and most folks felt they’re not sufficiently prepared for whatever comes along.
Most people are more concerned about man-made than natural emergencies, thinking that we have ample advance warnings about storms (except tornadoes) but not other acts. We also had a train fire in a tunnel under downtown in the summer of 2001, which set lots of people thinking about chemical accidents related to trains, water treatment plants, etc.
Shelter in place is often the best option. We lose our electricity a lot because of old trees in our area, so we have lots of battery operated lights (and a couple of oil lamps), a hand crank radio (purchased before Y2K) and a battery operated TV, to alleviate boredom as well as stay informed. We also have a good supply of water (N.B. - your hot water heater will yield something like 50 gallons of clean water in a pinch) and an emergency food pantry, which we rotate with the change in seasons.
We also try never to let the gas tank go below half full, although sometimes that slips.
One thing I haven’t done, although I keep thinking about it, is brining a 2-3 day supply of my Rx meds to the office, just in case I get caught here. We DO have a stash of bottled water here, and I think most of us have more than jus today’s lunch squirreled away in the fridge. (We have an office of about 40.)
Anyhow — it’s good to think about these things BEFORE the fact.
October 5th, 2005 at 6:00:59 pm
It’s virtually impossible for Al Qaeda to blow up a damn. If it were that easy to blow up a damn, Saddam Hussein’s troops would have done it during the U.S. invasion.
October 5th, 2005 at 6:05:39 pm
Haha, Toni’s preparations are extreme, but then, if I lived in the San Francisco area, I would probably be the same way. Back in early 2001, FEMA ranked the three most serious threats of mega-catastrophes in the U.S. They were: a terrorist attack on New York City, a hurricane strike on New Orleans, and a major earthquake in San Francisco. Well, two down, one to go… so yeah. Nice work, Toni.
Andrew, thanks for the thoughts on which roads to take out of town. That’s definitely good food for thought.
I should probably make a bit more of an emergency “supply kit” … I had one (sort of) when I lived in New York, but not so much now. Also, it occurs to me that it might not be a bad idea to have a cron job on my laptop that automatically downloads things like wind direction maps to my hard drive every few hours… that way, if there’s a nuclear attack or some other event where knowing the wind direction is important, I’d have that information close at hand without needing an Internet connection or electrical power.
October 5th, 2005 at 6:06:28 pm
It’s virtually impossible for Al Qaeda to blow up a damn. If it were that easy to blow up a damn, Saddam Hussein’s troops would have done it during the U.S. invasion.
To continue the theme of misspelling: Maybe Saddam Hussein just didn’t give a dam. :)
October 5th, 2005 at 6:16:10 pm
What about floods? Is South Bend near any rivers that could rise from extreme rains?
Yes, the St. Joseph River… the Tribune article addresses that:
[One disaster scenario is…] Flooding from the St. Joseph River, although most flood-prone areas are either public park land or are near businesses that have individual flood plans.
October 5th, 2005 at 6:24:57 pm
Extreme?
It is not like I am burying cans of silver dimes in the ground ( though I know people who have )
I also do not own any guns.
I wanterd to get gas masks but Jim said I was going over the edge :)
October 5th, 2005 at 6:33:26 pm
Heh.
I didn’t mean “extreme” in a bad way… just that, you’ve done a lot, but I think it’s understandable and quite reasonable.
October 5th, 2005 at 6:34:00 pm
P.S. If I was as prepared as you are, I’d probably be going overboard. But you don’t live in South Bend, you live in the Bay Area. That changes the equation significantly.
October 5th, 2005 at 6:49:37 pm
Toni - actually, I thought of Joe when I saw oreoaird - it sorta looks like Irish Gaelic, perhaps meaning something like “in black and white, out in the open where the cumhail winds off the lough can keep it fresh” …
Am I close, Joe ?
(innocent smile)
(bigger grin)(I know … “innocent”, my Erse!)
October 5th, 2005 at 7:16:11 pm
Toni, gas masks is a waste. In case of a serious enough threat that gas masks are necessary, the stuff you get at the store wont do, you would need like a freaking chemicla suit set like the marines have or some such thing to really protect yourself. everything else you have makes sense. hey, since you are in the bay area, and bridges might go byebye in a major disaster, do you have like a boast too? hehe.
October 5th, 2005 at 7:17:14 pm
That was me.
October 5th, 2005 at 7:43:31 pm
Yes we have a Zodiak Boat :)
October 5th, 2005 at 7:45:28 pm
Alasdair…
have no idea what you are talking about…
” Toni - actually, I thought of Joe when I saw oreoaird - it sorta looks like Irish Gaelic, perhaps meaning something like “in black and white, out in the open where the cumhail winds off the lough can keep it fresh” …
Am I close, Joe ?
(innocent smile)
(bigger grin)(I know … “innocent”, my Erse!)”
October 5th, 2005 at 8:38:28 pm
Toni - cf your own comment @ 10.05.05 - 4:42 pm
October 5th, 2005 at 8:52:26 pm
Oh… my typo… no wonder I was confused LOL
October 5th, 2005 at 9:11:47 pm
Brendan, Dude, the Michigan City cooling tower you showed and referenced is a cooling toweer for a COAL fired generating station. Not nuclear. I believe that there are nuclear plants near you, and in the wind zone, but MC isn’t one of them. (IIRC, bailley and one in Michigan, are nuclear).
The rest of you, do you have a “shelter in place” plan? Might be the best thing for a few days.
I have food for 20 people for 90+ days, a means of purifying water (easier than carrying water BTW, water is HEAVY) (katadyn.com)shelter and 100gal/75 days fuel for generating power OR “bugging out”.
Plan “B” (true nuclear attack, and my “bug out vehicle is disabled by an EMP) is a pack full of food and again, my water filter, boots and gear to live off the land for a few days while I hike out.
But against most disasters in the northern Indiana area (even most likely terrorist scenarios), staying put is a better idea. If it’s a nerve gas type attack, then it is almost impossible to prepare for one. even if you can, by the time you notice it, it’ll probably be too late. Therefore, why try?
But at least you folks have a plan. THis puts you in better shape than most.
October 5th, 2005 at 10:20:03 pm
Wow, bert, thanks, you’re right, and that’s a VERY egregious error on my part… why, it’s almost a Maureen Dowd-esque mistake! :) I am trying to post a correction, but Blogger is down right now…
October 5th, 2005 at 11:22:45 pm
More emergency preparedness things you might not have thought about–
If you do have to evacuate your home, turn off the electricity, gas and water at the source before you go. If you don’t know where and how to do that, find out now. If you don’t have the proper wrench, pick one up on your next shopping trip and put it with your emergency supply kit.
Have at least one “standard” (i.e. fully corded) telephone in your home. Cordless phones, as well as phones with built-in fax machines, don’t work when the power goes out. The phone lines often keep working even when the power lines are down.
The next time you go to the grocery store, pick up some of those foil pouches of tuna, and canned goods (soup, fruit, etc.) that come with pop tops. That way you won’t have to fool with a manual can opener when you have lots of other things to worry about.
When you’re putting together your emergency preparedness kit, be sure to include things to keep yourself and your family amused — cards, board games, etc.
October 6th, 2005 at 12:54:47 am
Another thing…obviously, this won’t come up for a while yet, but when creating an emergency kit, calendar an annual review to ensure the supplies are all still in good condition.
I grew up in the Bay Area, and right after the big quake in ‘89 we put together an emergency kit, stashed it, and promptly forgot about it except to say “yeah, we’re ready.”
When we moved houses a few years later, we opened up the pack. And no, we were very much *not* ready. We’d been lucky…but if there had been a major earthquake, we’d have been screwed, since our “super-prepared kit” had given us a false sense of security. :)
October 6th, 2005 at 1:16:24 am
Our paper here in Tucson ran an article with the mayor talking of how Tucson was ready for an emergency evacuation (did every paper in the US cover this recently?). Of course it was never specified what the emergency might be. Since we’re a desert community far inland, hurricanes are out, along with blizzards, and flash floods tend to have a localized impact due to the terrain.
I suppose a terrorist attack is always possible, and the only other conceivable one we could come up with was if they ever start storing nuclear waste at Yucca Mtn in Nevada, the trains that haul the spent fuel are supposed to travel through the city. So a derailment could be a problem.
In short, the emergency evacuation concept isn’t one I’m going to lose a lot of sleep over or spend too much time on as long as I live in Tucson.
October 6th, 2005 at 8:28:15 am
I’m in a pretty big target area: Washington, D.C. Well — I’m not actually in the city itself, but WMDs (of all types) are not exactly precision weapons. :-/ In fact, in response to a family member’s inquiry about what I’d do if a nuke hit DC, my response was: “probably die.”
In any case, we live very near the C&O Canal Towpath, a gravel trail that goes from Georgetown all the way to Cumberland, MD (on the WV border). In case of an emergency, we’d meet up at home and then head north and west. I’ve got a lot of backpacking equipment, and we’d be able to survive for quite a while.
Brendan, you’re on one of the Lakes, right? Just skip across to Canada; bad things don’t happen there! :)
October 6th, 2005 at 10:58:23 am
Brendan, just a note.
People from that state up north aren’t known as Michiganians, they’re Michiganders….. well, either that or assholes.
October 6th, 2005 at 1:49:40 pm
schmendel - stop being so sexist - some of ‘em are Michigeese !
(innocent grin)
October 6th, 2005 at 4:37:30 pm
Interesting how many people are ethinking about getting a gun, after seeing how quickly that thin veneer of civilization evaporates.
Hurrican Hugo left us without power for 14 days in 1989, so we already knew what life in suburbia becomes without our beloved electricity. And we had city water and gas. A real disaster would be without those, most likely.
People near nuclear plants need to put iodine tablets in your kits, and take them, to prevent thyroid cancer from the radioactive crap in the air. That’s assuming you don’t get a dose that kills you.
An article in our papaer by a survivalist-type M.D. also recommended a spce blanket per person.