“Defending the U.S. government’s response to Hurricane Katrina, Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff argued Saturday that government planners did not predict such a disaster ever could occur.” –CNN
Read the whole thing. It’s stunning. It’s infuriating. The man is simply lying through his teeth.
UPDATE: For those who would defend Chertoff on the basis of the fact that “all the doomsday predictions were based on the levees being topped, not failing,” that’s true, but it doesn’t help Chertoff’s case, because if the levees had been topped by the storm surge (which they would have, if Katrina had moved 20 or 30 miles west of where it did), the flooding in New Orleans would have been even worse! It doesn’t make much sense to say that the government was prepared for the worst-case scenario, but was unprepared for a less-bad scenario! And besides, it’s perfectly clear was Chertoff is trying to do: like Brown, he is trying to “spin” Katrina’s aftermath by suggesting the government did not and could not have anticipated what occurred. That’s simply not true.
Was the flood unexpectly bad? Absolutely not. Was the manner in which it occurred a surprise? Yes. Is it Chertoff’s job to think outside the box? YES!
P.S. And please, don’t tell me it’s “too early to play the blame game.” It is never too early to refute government lies before the public accepts them as true.
P.P.S. Also, please don’t say I’m giving the local government a free pass. I’m not.
UPDATE: National Hurricane Center director Max Mayfield confirms that FEMA and the Homeland Security department knew exactly what Katrina could do, implicitly refuting Chertoff’s statements, as well as those by Michael Brown, suggesting that the storm’s destructiveness took them by surprise:
Dr. Max Mayfield, director of the National Hurricane Center, said Sunday that officials with the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the Department of Homeland Security, including FEMA Director Mike Brown and Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff, listened in on electronic briefings given by his staff in advance of Hurricane Katrina slamming Louisiana and Mississippi and were advised of the storm’s potential deadly effects.Mayfield said the strength of the storm and the potential disaster it could bring were made clear during both the briefings and in formal advisories, which warned of a storm surge capable of overtopping levees in New Orleans and winds strong enough to blow out windows of high-rise buildings. He said the briefings included information on expected wind speed, storm surge, rainfall and the potential for tornados to accompany the storm as it came ashore.
“We were briefing them way before landfall,” Mayfield said. “It’s not like this was a surprise. We had in the advisories that the levee could be topped.”
The levee, of course, was not “topped,” it was breached. But as I’ve already pointed out, being “topped” (by the storm surge) actually would been worse than a post-landfall levee breach; the city would have been submerged almost instantly in 20-30 feet of water, instead of 10-20 feet, and most of the refugees now in Texas would instead be corpses floating in the flooded streets of New Orleans. So it’s not much of a defense for Chertoff, Brown & co. to say “we expected it to be topped, not breached,” because that’s essentially saying you were prepared for the worst-case scenario, but not for a less-bad scenario, which doesn’t make any sense. (And if their argument is “we assumed everyone would dead, so we didn’t think we’d need to rescue them,” somehow I suspect the public will have a hard time accepting that, and with good reason.) Anyway, Mayfield goes on:
“I keep looking back to see if there was anything else we could have done, and I just don’t know what it would be,” he said.Chertoff told reporters Saturday that government officials had not expected the damaging combination of a powerful hurricane levee breaches that flooded New Orleans.
Brown, Mayfield said, is a dedicated public servant.
“The question is why he couldn’t shake loose the resources that were needed,” he said.
Brown may be dedicated, but as I said earlier, he’s either a liar or he’s incompetent, based on his statement that “Saturday and Sunday, we thought it was a typical hurricane situation.” There is no possible justification for that statement, given what was already known and what was being predicted on Saturday and Sunday. Mayfield’s statement confirms this, not that any further confirmation was needed. As for Chertoff, try as his defenders might, parsing his words to look for some Clintonian defense is unavailing. Like Brown, his statements on this matter reveal that he is either lying to the public in order to spin the aftermath in the administration’s favor, or else he was and is incompetent. There is no other plausible explanation.
(Hat tip: the forums.)
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Categories: Hurricane Katrina
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September 4th, 2005 at 10:41:35 am
As the gods of humor would have it, the night before Katrina hit New Orleans, National Georgraphic was airing a rerun of their Natural Disaster series which explained exactly what would happen if a Cat 3 or higher storm hit the city.
The next day, the prediction came true.
If Bush and his cronies can’t read, they could at least watch TV!
September 4th, 2005 at 10:46:24 am
Ivan struck Florida about three weeks before the Federal elections and what do you know, FEMA was there BEFORE THE STORM HIT. Afterwards, they handed out billions to FL residents.
Now, there’s no electoral upside to bailing out the Gulf Coast, so tough tits, everyone.
September 4th, 2005 at 10:50:23 am
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/printFriendly/0,,1-10889-1762948,00.html
I read this on my flight back to the US yesterday. Interesting quotes that Army Corps planners never believed they would have a breach. Overflow yes, but a breach was out of the question.
September 4th, 2005 at 10:53:44 am
Brendan,
Your site has been absolutely the best in calling BS on the various authorities during this horrible week.
After reading what Chertoff said, I have a hard time believing it. But, one thing that strikes me about this guy is that he’s not so stupid as to lie about something that’s easily found out.
Could it be that there indeed was no planning for scenario that envisioned a breach of an upgraded levy causing a rapid flooding of the city (as opposed to the well-reported topping scenario that we’ve heard about for years)?
Given a potential terrorist attack intending to cause such a breach, I still find Chertoff’s statement implausible (i.e., if there wasn’t, why not?), but I don’t yet have the facts to fully discredit it.
September 4th, 2005 at 10:57:50 am
CNN is playing fast and loose with the facts here. I watched that press conference on C-SPAN. Chertoff was saying that the unexpected part was the levees actually failing, and failing AFTER the storm. He never said that nobody predicted that the city would flood.
All the doomsday predictions were based on the levees being topped, not failing. The plan, if the levees were topped, was to pump the water out, not to erect coffer dams and rebuild the levees. Coffer dams take massive amounts of planning, and huge pieces of equipment. You generally only see them built when specific construction plans require them (ie: building concrete pilings for very large bridges).
Chertoff was NOT lying, he’s telling the truth. The only plans that ever talked about failed levees are the terrorist scenarios, and even those plans didn’t foresee 200-300 foot long breaches.
Reporters are clueless. Never forget that. J-school is not the place to go if you’re looking for rocket scientists.
September 4th, 2005 at 11:02:04 am
My favorite quote from Chertoff is that Hurricane Katrina was “unhelpful.”
Unhelpful? Where have I heard THAT before? Gee. Could it be Rumsfeld? Sounds to me like the Administration is cutting and pasting its Iraq rhetoric with Hurricane-speak. Sad.
September 4th, 2005 at 11:03:59 am
Now THIS is what a FEMA Director’s bio should read like:
James Lee Witt has over 25 years of disaster management experience, culminating in his appointment as the Director of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, where he served from 1993-2001. In this capacity, he is credited with turning FEMA from an unsuccessful bureaucratic agency to an internationally lauded all-hazards disaster management agency. His leadership abilities have been praised by nationally recognized organizations, including the Council for Excellence in Government, Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government, and the National Association of Broadcasters.
September 4th, 2005 at 11:14:25 am
“Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff argued Saturday that government planners did not predict such a disaster ever could occur.”
Hmmm. So what Chertoff says is that we are totally unprepared for a nuclear weapon being detonated in the U.S. I thought we went into Iraq to prevent WMD. You mean no one at Homeland Security is even thinking about how to respond to a Hiroshima-type event - basically what you are seeing now in New Orleans, but ten times worse and with radiation.
The American people get it. Why don’t our leaders?
September 4th, 2005 at 11:14:57 am
Brendan, I would appreciate your comment on the following post:
http://americansforfreedom.blogspot.com/2005/09/ive-had-it-with-people-blaming-this.html
Basically, this was a failure of local and state government, that has now been shifted politically to Bush and the feds.
September 4th, 2005 at 11:22:06 am
jp-
When people like Bill Kristol, Newt Gingrich and Bill Frist and newspapers such as The Washington Times acknowledge the failure of the Bush Administration to respond, it makes people like you look like the Right-Wing version of Michael Moore and RFK, Jr to say otherwise. I think at this point you are doing your cause more harm than good by trying to say Bush shouldn’t take any blame for the sorry response to this incident.
September 4th, 2005 at 11:24:42 am
I am saying that the feds and President Bush are ONLY NOW responsible for FIXING the problems CREATED by the FAILURE of STATE and LOCAL govts. to FULLY EVACUATE the city BEFOREHAND, as specifically called for in EVERY document on emergency preparedness in Louisiana. That is my position.
September 4th, 2005 at 11:38:52 am
This is what Brendan gets for being linked from just about every right-wing blog in the country… so you’ll have to deal with people like this, Mad Max
September 4th, 2005 at 11:39:56 am
I think Chertoff is making a major mistake covering for his subordinate.
Even Michelle Malkin, who makes me look liberal, wants Michael Brown fired.
September 4th, 2005 at 11:45:26 am
I like this Michelle
September 4th, 2005 at 11:53:52 am
Again, I hate to say “I told you so” (well not really) but I brought this issue up on Tuesday night at 8:35 p.m. (36 hours or so after the hurricane hit) and BOY did I get an earfull about how impatient and moronic I was being.
September 4th, 2005 at 12:05:28 pm
i disagree 100%. the feds are going to take the blame for lousiana’s failure to execute it’s disaster plan - just see the 200+ buses less than a mile from the superdome.
September 4th, 2005 at 12:06:39 pm
In the sense that all of the scenarios had the levees being topped, not breached, and this not even in tandem with having to respond everywhere along the coast all the way to Florida I am thinking that Chertoff is probably correct.
September 4th, 2005 at 12:08:36 pm
OkI willadmit kinda foofooish, but you know what to all those young girls who have lost everything, what a treat.
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September 4th, 2005 at 12:09:21 pm
I have said it once Brendan, and I will say it again…you are totally correct. This is infuriating that Chertoff and Brown are lying through their teeth. And although FEMA itself says that the locals bear responsibility for ensuring that they have plans for making it through the first 72 hours without FEMA help, I think that FEMA should be clear that that clock should have started ticking as SOON as the NWS plotted this as a CAT 3 storm on Friday PM. Check out the rest of my response here: http://raywert.blogspot.com/2005/09/was-fema-prepared-blame-game-part-i.html
September 4th, 2005 at 12:15:42 pm
I am going to post this also, just for thepeople anywhere they have gone to look into.
http://www.freecycle.org/
I am sur there will be so many other resources but every one counts right?
September 4th, 2005 at 12:15:49 pm
Brendan is 100% correct.
I watched the evacuation on WWL before the hurricane. Before the storm, Jefferson Parish (that’s just west of New Orleans) officials were saying in plain simple language that the levees WOULD break, that the power and water WOULD be out for weeks or months, that the whole are WOULD become uninhabitable and that EVERYONE MUST leave at once.
The Parish President (Aaron Broussard I believe) was begging the governor to get Federal help on the way at once.
Brendan is right, this is gross and criminal incompetence from Bush right down to the mayor and the police chief of New Orleans.
Fire the FEMA people by all means but the city of New Orleans did nothing to help itself. If they had called on volunteers to bring in buses and trucks to help with the evacuation there would have been hundreds at the Superdome on Tuesday morning with thousands more on the way. If they had asked Wal-Mart to send in 10 tractor-trailors of water and food, it would have been there Monday afternoon.
South Louisiana is teeming with resources - trucks, buses, boats and a million wonderful people who would have risked anything to help but is was all left idle.
The lazy bastards.
But it’s still not over. For miles and miles from the French Quarter people are trapped without food and water. People in neighborhoods we haven’t heard from yet. Gentilly, East New Orlans, Chalmette and a dozen others. There are thousands, perhaps tens of thousands who are already starting to die from dehydration.
To rescue these people will take boats. Thousands of boats. Again, there is no lack of resources. Everyone in South Louisiana has a boat and there would be no shortage of skilled and willing volunteers but to make it happen, they need to organize. They need to set up landings with food, water, security and fuel and they need to ask for the help.
It’s already too late for many but this must be done or many thousands of people are going to die. In the coming weeks they are going to be pulling thousand of bodies out of houses all over Orleans Parish. Many of these poor people are alive right now and can be saved.
This isn’t over, it’s just starting. Things are better at the superdome but people are dying all over the rest of the city. Can we get going, finally?
September 4th, 2005 at 12:18:50 pm
Everything being said in terms of ‘excuses’ from FEMA and other federal agencies seem to be reflective of things said by local NO/LA authorities leading up to the storm. I am going to research the most ridiculous comments being made post-Katrina by the Feds, and look for similarities with comments made by NO/LA officials pre-Katrina. I believe I’ll find many similarities, but I may be mistaken. If I’m right, then the stupid-or-lying meme doesn’t cut it.
Again, none of this makes these comments by the Feds less wrong, but it does offer a potential alternative explanation for why they are being said.
September 4th, 2005 at 12:18:50 pm
Everything being said in terms of ‘excuses’ from FEMA and other federal agencies seem to be reflective of things said by local NO/LA authorities leading up to the storm. I am going to research the most ridiculous comments being made post-Katrina by the Feds, and look for similarities with comments made by NO/LA officials pre-Katrina. I believe I’ll find many similarities, but I may be mistaken. If I’m right, then the stupid-or-lying meme doesn’t cut it.
Again, none of this makes these comments by the Feds less wrong, but it does offer a potential alternative explanation for why they are being said.
September 4th, 2005 at 12:27:59 pm
Brendan, step back. You are doing a great job, but remember CNN is not an original source. It is a edited report.
September 4th, 2005 at 12:41:21 pm
Even though I am trying not to place any blame(as we do not have all that many facts at this point) and even though from what I’ve read, I think ultimate blame may lie with the local and state governments, this is unacceptable. How can we have faith in FEMA and the DHS when their heads don’t know what I did from watching Fox News. Last sunday, I was at work, and around the bar people were talking about how horrible it was going to be with the possibility of flooding. If random people at a bar can know, Chertoff should have known.
September 4th, 2005 at 12:47:48 pm
Bill Radigan
You’re right about Jeff Parish — I was talking to some folks from there yesterday and they said parish officials were adamant about everyone getting out. What about Orleans parish? What were they saying (and doing) to impress upon people the need to get out right away? What were they doing to get those who had no means out? They’re calling the yahoo photo of the school bus garage with the flooded buses on it the “Ray Nagin Memorial Motor Pool”
http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/050901/480/flpc21109012015
There was fuel there too. Lots of it.
September 4th, 2005 at 1:08:05 pm
I DID just find this article talking about how Nagin did evacuate, using buses and bullhorns 100,000 people, don’t know how true but…
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20050828/ap_on_re_us/hurricane_katrina
September 4th, 2005 at 1:30:50 pm
Brendan: I’ve admired the resolve and tireless coverage you’ve displayed here. Yet I feel that your recent hysterics regarding both FEMA and Homeland Security reveal you’re falling into the blame game trap. Since Mayor Nagin and Govenor Blanco decided to start this game, blogs have unmasked their own failures and sadly shown their own ineptness in their jobs. Nagin’s clear failure to follow his own plan and Blanco not knowing how to put into motion Fedral response will be known shortly over the shrill attempts to cover asses and or blame President Bush.
You and Michelle Malkin both have chosen to take Browne’s and Cherkoff’s words out of context and erode the fact of the matter that innitial preperations and responses are the responsibility of local officials and municipalities.
September 4th, 2005 at 1:35:45 pm
Brendan,
Where are the comments in the archives?
BTW, I think NOAA of all the government agencies had it pegged from the beginning. HATS OFF to NOAA and the NHC for being Johnny on the Spot and calling it like it is!
September 4th, 2005 at 1:36:51 pm
Eric in Atlanta writes, “I am going to research the most ridiculous comments being made post-Katrina by the Feds, and look for similarities with comments made by NO/LA officials pre-Katrina. I believe I’ll find many similarities, but I may be mistaken. If I’m right, then the stupid-or-lying meme doesn’t cut it.”
I did a little research.
On Aug. 27, the AP quoted local officials warning the public to pack their bags.
“Ladies and gentlemen, this is not a test. This is the real deal,” Mayor C. Ray Nagin said at a news conference. “Board up your homes, make sure you have enough medicine, make sure the car has enough gas. Do all things you normally do for a hurricane but treat this one differently because it is pointed toward New Orleans.”
The article goes on: “Gov. Kathleen Blanco, who led news conferences in Jefferson and Orleans parishes, had advice for people going to a shelter: “Pack as if you were going on a camping trip” - in addition to nonperishable food, take blankets, cots, sleeping bags, pillows, folding chairs, games for children.”
And about those who stayed behind:
“I know they’re saying ‘Get out of town,’ but I don’t have any way to get out,” said Hattie Johns, 74. “If you don’t have no money, you can’t go.”
September 4th, 2005 at 1:46:43 pm
Why levees break ?
http://www.hochwasser-special.de…/ deichbruch.htm
The text is in german, but the animation&pictures are quite clear.
Main difference between the shown levee to the NO ones, is that NOs have been raised with concrete walls.
The concrete walls sustain only if the earthen part is in good shape. As it seems the earthen part was weakend by water overflowed the levees. A going on problem is that other segments of the earthen levee system could be harmed through all the water and break down within days / weeks or even month. Levee system are quite complex and they have to be watched sensitively.
Sorry for my strange english.
September 4th, 2005 at 1:50:36 pm
The Wash Post reported that Bush called the Governor on Saturday night prior to landfall and begged her to declare an emergency.
“Gov. Kathleen Blanco, standing beside the mayor at a news conference, said President Bush called and personally appealed for a mandatory evacuation for the low-lying city, which is prone to flooding.”
Here is a NOLA source.
http://www.nola.com/newsflash/louisiana/index.ssf?base/news-18/1125239940201382.xml&storylist=louisiana
The Feds cannot come in and just take over. They have to be asked by the local authorities.
When I made PLT sgt in the NG, we received guidance to the effect that the unit could only deploy on orders of a Lt Colonel or higher and he could only act if the feds were asked by the Governor. For RA troops to get involved, the legalities are even stricter.
In other words, we were told that any order to deploy out from our Armory from a Major or below was an unlawful order and was to be disobeyed.
If a Governor has her act together, she would have declared LA a disaster area BEFORE the hurricane hit like Jeb did in FL. That allows things to be predeployed like they were.
September 4th, 2005 at 1:50:41 pm
The guy knows his job is lost come a few weeks for now, so i figure he is just trying to deflect as much criticism off himself as possible before the inevitable happens.
September 4th, 2005 at 1:50:41 pm
The guy knows his job is lost come a few weeks for now, so i figure he is just trying to deflect as much criticism off himself as possible before the inevitable happens.
September 4th, 2005 at 1:54:29 pm
I live in California, Southern California to boot. Survived all earthquakes since 1971. It has been, and always will be the same … the young, the old, the sick and the poor get hit the hardest. why oh why can’t our local and ferdal government plan better for these folks?! How many of these folks didn’t have the “choice” to leave?! why weren’t buses, and other means sent in to help these people leave?! We have state laws about how much “emergency” relieve goods (food, water, medicines, etc.) have to be available NOW and for how long (minimum 10 days) if a disaster strikes. My husband works at Universal Studios Hollywood. They are mandated by law to be ready for 30,000 people for 10 days. No government official moved fast enough or quick enough; they didn’t “expect” it to be this bad?! Doesn’t compute in my mind because we have master plans for “worst case” scenario not “best.” The peoples of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama have been so let down. I hope that the rest of the United States will continue to open their hearts, homes, wallets, businesses, schools, etc. and give to these folks until all their homes & jobs are restored. It’s the least we can do. Regardless of race, color, creed or religion — all humans suffer the same –
September 4th, 2005 at 1:56:39 pm
If you can’t impress them with your great intelligence and prompt actions, baffle them with bullshit. That’s what the incompetent secretaries are doing. Chertoff is saying that nature was unfair, there were three catastrophies not one, therefore he couldn’t act. It never occurred to the lamebrain that he should have started ordering people into positions two days before Katrina got to New Orleans, and worry about presidential orders later. He said he did nothing immediately because he did not receive written orders from the White House. Stupid!
Are we to believe that, in a nuclear attack, if written orders from the White House NEVER arrive the Secretary of Homeland Security will NEVER perform his duties? God help us!
Chertoff and Brown should be fired!
September 4th, 2005 at 2:22:10 pm
My post making fun of Chertoff’s looks have weirdly come true! He’s DOCTOR LEO MARVIN COME BACK!!!
Watch out, as soon he’ll be calling the Hurricane “Death Therapy”.
While I am less and less impressed with Brown and Chertoff, I do think they need our prayers and support (as in helping do their jobs now, not political support) now. We don’t want them to get any worse, do we?
September 4th, 2005 at 2:35:22 pm
LA National Guard asked for equipment back from Iraq August 1st of this year, still haven’t received it back. Read the article here: http://raywert.blogspot.com/2005/09/la-national-guard-asked-for-supplies.html
September 4th, 2005 at 2:40:28 pm
well were fucked. Expect no change in the next disaster…move on
by going straight to the top on this one, we have no hope for that any other state and locals will not respond any less FUBAR than LA.
this was not a bubble, it was a domino game…as each domino fell failures grew exponentially.
Who do you think is watching this most keenly?
First responders in your city and state. Are you confident that because the Feds (whose spelled out response time is 72-96 hours) are taking the predictable “blame” hit, are revising their plans and responses in your city?
NOOOOO, in other-words are you city and state officials saying, well because the feds didn’t respond fast enough we should prepare better and do more? NOOOOOOO, because that would cost money and resources…more of the same. No change.
There will always be enough blame for the feds regardless of whose president or politics, period.
The reason 9-11 didn’t erupt into a war-zone is because a leader stepped up and took charge. Spare the “well this was a flood” blah, blah. New York has the potentially to erupt into a far large mess of civil unrest in less, just as any city in the nation.
this needed to be a bottom up, if any real meaningful lessons were to be learned…to bad
September 4th, 2005 at 2:57:23 pm
Bob,
I cant say I agree,and I havent really seen hysterics I have seen anger. Anger at so many people suffering and dying, inwhich I dont think you could disagree is wrong. I also dont think it is wrong to show that anger when a person that should have handles teh situation in a better manner seems more concerned about covering his ass than owning up to it. I guess we have different opions on whom should be able to control aiding thousands of people in peril. I wonder if you would have wanted BROWN IN CHARGE IF YOU WERE IN NO?
September 4th, 2005 at 3:10:55 pm
not that anyone is reading this, but I’m not sure I made my point in the comment above. When I said this…
“by going straight to the top on this one, we have no hope for that any other state and locals will not respond any less FUBAR than LA.”
and this
“NOOOOO, in other-words are you city and state officials saying, well because the feds didn’t respond fast enough we should prepare better and do more? NOOOOOOO, because that would cost money and resources…more of the same. No change.”
I mean by not really scrutinizing the actions of the first responders (local and state) and holding them more accountable for there failure no other city or state will be inclined to change…the response will be dismally the same and the excuse will be…we thought after Katrina the feds would have been better so we didn’t change anything…they just want the feds MONEY in any disater and always will
I mean come on people, they were reporting that locals might not open the superdome, they hadn’t decided JUST 12 hours BEFORE!!!
September 4th, 2005 at 3:20:18 pm
This used to be a really fun and entertaining blog.
Recently, it’s turned into the Daily Kos Jr blog. All I read in the comments now are crackpot statements made with no real evidence or backup. Sorry, quoting CNN just doesn’t impress me as a reliable source.
Brendan: Thanks for the entertainment over the years and good luck. Sadly, I’ll be moving along.
September 4th, 2005 at 3:23:17 pm
He was speaking of the levee failure after the storm. When I worked at FEMA we had doomsday scenarios about a cat 4/5 hitting N.O. that were well known to everybody at the agency, but they all predicted a surge that would simply COVER the levee system, not breach it to the point of failure. If the levees had simply been overrun and not structurally compromised, the pumps could have been brought back online relatively quickly and the water pumped out (I would still have taken weeks or months to dry the city). Now, the levees have to be patched before that can happen.
Like I said in my comment to the post below, the fault for the HUMAN tragedy here lies with the LA Governor for not mobilizing the Guard BEFORE the storm hit, and with the N.O. Mayor for not using city and school buses to get those without transportation means away from the congregation points (The Superdome and Convention Center). I mean, he didn’t even forward-deploy food and water to those places. Think about that for at least a second, OK?
Even in best-case scenarios FEMA employees take 12 to 24 hours to deploy AFTER A DISASTER HAS OCCURED. This disaster isn’t even over yet: FEMA won’t be able to get INTO N.O. for weeks or MONTHS yet. First responders are State and Local, and they failed, not FEMA.
Regards,
George
September 4th, 2005 at 3:31:35 pm
Let’s assume (just for the sake of discussion) that the responsibility for preparing for this hurricane was entirely that of the state and local authorities. Just assume that for the moment.
Now, it’s not like the state and local authorities being corrupt and incompetent is something new in New Orleans or Louisiana. So anyone thinking about a possible hurricane there would know that Federal help was going to be called for eventually.
Certainly it is true that the governor has to ask for Federal help. Let’s assume that the President indeed called and begged the governor to make that request, but didn’t get it for hours or days. Does anything prevent the Federal government from getting its act together, staging materials to where they will be immediately at hand, and otherwise making ready to move instantly when the request finally comes in? Is there a reason to wait to _start_ getting organized until the formal request arrives?
September 4th, 2005 at 3:52:26 pm
George - I’m curious that FEMA had no plan for the damaged levee system. I know nothing about levee structure, but it seems that the terrorist scenario would involve compromising the levees, less so than overrunning them.
September 4th, 2005 at 3:53:40 pm
this touches on wj’s questions
vial instapundit thread (on federal)—
reader Ralph Tacoma emails regarding my federalism point:
I’d suggest that you take a deep breath and think that through. There are VERY serious reasons why for the long term good of nation the federal government cannot just preempt state and local governments whenever it feels like it. IF we start down the slippery slope of allowing such federal preemption, we’ll soon wind up with no limits to the power of the federal government. There are strong constitutional reasons why that should not happen. IF we once give the federal government the right to merely assume powers, we’ve shattered the very basis of our government.
Good point — I just meant that I thought it odd to see Gov. Blanco working so hard to maintain her “independence” at a time when, in fact, Louisiana is extremely dependent on outside aid. I wouldn’t support legislation that would turn the National Guard into a force that’s always under the control of the President.
STILL MORE: This sounds right, though I haven’t researched it independently:
HereÃs the quick legal skinny: ThereÃs a difference between money and boots on the ground; the governor (surprise!) immediately asked for the former.
Under the Posse Comitatus Act (18 U.S.C. ß 1385), the president canÃt use armed forces (including national guard in federal service) for law enforcement absent congressional directive. (Some courts, however, have held that this does not apply to the Navy (U.S. v. Yunis, 924 F.2d 1086 (C.A.D.C. 1991)) and the Coast Guard (U.S. v. Chaparro-Almeida, 679 F.2d 423 (5th Cir. 1982)), both of which seem to be more useful here, since it looks like that nobody without boats can provide any serious logistical or enforcement functions in NO.)
But upon request of the governor, or perhaps on his own initiative, the president can use the federal military by invoking the Insurrection Act (10 U.S.C. ßß 331-34). WhatÃs happening in NO might be called ìinsurrectionî or ìrebellion,î but thatÃs a politically-dangerous stretch.
http://instapundit.com/archives/025328.php
September 4th, 2005 at 3:54:13 pm
typo, via NOT vial
September 4th, 2005 at 4:00:56 pm
I watched Chertoff being interviewed on CNN today, and he did not make that statement. I see the CNN piece refers to an interview Saturday, but they do not attribute a quote to him that “government planners did not predict such a disaster ever could occur.”
What he said was much more detailed. First he pointed out that the newspaper’s “doomsday” scenario (which envisioned water flowing over the levees, not failure of multiple large sections) was actually not even as bad as what actually happened.
What he said (if you read the linked article) was that there was no plan for dealing with massive levee failures of the sort that came to pass, which nobody has denied. Despite CNN’s editorial assertions to the contrary, he seemed well aware of the various scenarios that had been projected, and the study done last year for a less-severe hurricane.
Folks, this is going to be a long and difficult process. There will be opportunities, at every turn, to question the motives of one official or another, or snipe at the implementation of this or that particular element. Indeed, this is the process the MSM has applied to the War in Iraq for two years - report all the bad news, ignore all the good news, and use every opportunity to convince people we are losing when the opposite is true. If they don’t quite root for the enemy, they are quite happy to distort every news item into a scandal or a catastrophe.
I wish people would quit the feeding frenzy and search for scapegoats. The scope of the problem is unprecedented. Nobody had a well-rehearsed plan for dealing with the specific circumstances that developed, so we’ve had to make one up as we go. Decisions will be made based on incomplete or sometimes inaccurate information. There is no time to have every response to the biased, hostile and often irrelevant questions of the press fact-checked and vetted by a panel of attorneys like sworn affadavits in court.
I watched about 4 interviews and on-camera question/answer sessions with Chertoff today, and he impressed me as being on top of the problem, and being properly focused on the massive work ahead. As the days go on, I think it will become clear that the Feds’ response was a very rapid and successful improvisation under the most difficult of circumstances.
September 4th, 2005 at 4:06:10 pm
Also on several networks today, General Honore has made the point that seems to be frequently overlooked: when a destructive hurricane is on the way, you don’t move your relief assets into its path, you move them away from its path. Then when the storm passes, you can use them. And this is indeed what was done with ships, helos, planes, men and supplies.
He also made the point that it is not just availability of men, but having the ability to feed them, communicate with them and refuel their vehicles that is needed. Throwing men into the immediate aftermath of a disaster without logistical support just makes them additional victims.
September 4th, 2005 at 4:19:48 pm
Laguna Dave,
thank you!
September 4th, 2005 at 4:24:09 pm
more Honore perspective…
A quote from him:
“By-and-large, these are families that are just waiting to get out of here. They are frustrated; I would be, too. I get frustrated at the cash register counter when the paper runs out.”
September 4th, 2005 at 4:24:56 pm
jp-
Face it. Your “position” is to bend over for the RNC. Keep the spinning up. Maybe like the mouse you can turn the cream to butter and pull yourself out of the bucket beofre you drown.
September 4th, 2005 at 4:35:14 pm
In the end the ultimate blame will be placed on the Bush Administration and the Department of Homeland Security. Regardless of how inept the Mayor of New Orleans was or how clueless the Governor of Louisiana is the perception, as Brendan had remarked a few days ago, is now set in concrete that Bush screwed up. There are several reasons for this…
In a communications vaccuum from the White House, it was Nagin who put the finger on the Administration first and left it there for nearly a week while the White House seemed to do nothing. It was Bush’s Swiftboat moment.
Bush hired Michael Brown who, we are learning now, was completely unqualified for what has to be one of the most important positions in DHS behind Chertoff (who’s no winner himself). Bush put donor politics ahead of peoples’ safety.
Finally - the war. If this doesn’t demonstrate how much of a distraction this war has become - when we can’t even get military resources to our own people in a timely manner - than nothing will. You may think this is bull, but if you look at history there are many examples of how far-flung military campaigns have undermined confidence at home (starting with the Romans and ending with Vietnam).
September 4th, 2005 at 4:40:39 pm
Ray Wert-
Interesting. So there was an effort to use buses to evacuate New Orleans ahead of time. Unfortunately it sounds like too little too late.
September 4th, 2005 at 4:51:16 pm
and here I’ve been told Bush was a dictator! what happened ?
September 4th, 2005 at 4:58:06 pm
I DID just find this article talking about how Nagin did evacuate, using buses and bullhorns 100,000 people, don’t know how true but…
Ray, I read that article as indicating the mayor used buses to take people to the Superdome, not to take them out of the city. I suppose you could call that an “evacuation”, but it’s not evacuating people from the danger area.
It also doesn’t say that 100,000 people were transported to the Superdome; it says 100,000 were still in the city.
September 4th, 2005 at 5:01:14 pm
jaed-
I agree. All people who failed should lose their jobs. That means…
Mayor Nagin
Governor Blanco
FEMA Director Brown
Homeland Security Secretary Chertoff
President Bush
See? That was easy. Let’s get crackin’!
September 4th, 2005 at 5:07:21 pm
This morning I had to agree with Brendan that Brown has to go. His failure was not having the balls to take charge when no one else would–screw the beauracracy. I assumed that no one else on this planet was dumb enough not to know that the entire blame for countless deaths in on the head of Nagin for abandoning his people and on Blanco and her Adj. General for not getting the evacuees out and providing security and supplies using the Guard.
Besides opening the check book (which Bush did BEFORE Katrina even hit) the Feds are not responsible for any of this fiasco–to say otherwise is a lie, a damn lie or whatever else you want to call it. But it seems here there is so much Bush hating bullshit, you cant see the truth–if you really ever wanted to.
September 4th, 2005 at 5:07:34 pm
Here’s some food for thought. Congress came back on Easter Sunday and Bush even flew back in the wee hours of that Sunday to deal with Terry Schiavo - one brain dead woman. What excuse do these people have for waiting nearly a week to respond to the biggest natural disaster in U.S. history?
“Lawmakers interrupted their Easter recess for a mad dash back to Washington and a midnight vote on a measure to allow the federal courts to intervene in Ms. Schiavo’s case. President Bush flew back from his Texas ranch to sign the legislation in the wee morning hours.”
September 4th, 2005 at 5:08:50 pm
steve in pa-
I’m not Bush bashing. I’m saying hold EVERYONE who fucked up accountable. Fire them ALL! Blanco, Nagin, Chertoff, Brown - and ask Bush to resign.
September 4th, 2005 at 5:15:42 pm
This letter to Andrew Sullivan sez it all…
“I’ve considered myself a socially libertarian, fiscally conservative Republican for a very long time. I got along with the idea that I wasn’t going to get a whole lot of help. College wouldn’t be free. Job training would cost money and time. And I’m probably a decent example of up-from-not-much.
But after watching what’s happening in New Orleans-an American city that I’ve loved, visited and have always wanted to return to - I can’t ever vote for these people again.
Being a Republican means that you expect the government to do just a couple things for you and nothing else. Build a road. Defend us from enemies, foreign and domestic. Stuff that would be a lot less organized if we all had to do it ourselves. Everything else is just gravy.
And as we poured money into Department of Homeland Security, and the Federal Emergency Management Agency, I thought, “Right on,” because some of that money’s bound to fall on my head.
Well, something else would fall on my head first.
I work for the Las Vegas Metropolitan Police Department. And that means that if something really catastrophic happens in MY city, and they ask me to stick around, that’s the job. We have A and B teams and I’m a disaster recovery specialist on Team A. I’ve drawn up plans with names like Drawbridge and Smoldering Crater.
Here’s what these people would do for me.
They would leave me there to die.
Look at the facts. There’s no coordination on the ground right now. The city has no fresh water, no electricity, no services. The floodwater has so much oil and toxins in it that it’s flammable.
In psychology they have what is called a fight-or-flight response. When faced with danger, do you subdue it or do you flee? Some of it has to do with risk assessment, but in this case, there is no flight. There is nowhere to run. So flight means die. If my choice was to pull a pistol on a truck driver or Nat, Jarren, Jayson, or any of you dies, that’s no choice at all.
I’m not talking about the looters grabbing big-screen televisions and basketball hoops. I’m talking about the ones that are chest-deep in water carrying bottled water and diapers. You can’t tell me for three days to be patient, the bus is coming, and they’re piling up bodies in the street median.
We have known that this sort of disaster could occur for a century. Hell, the tour bus driver told me about it on the plantation tour. This means that we have been able to envision the stark reality of this occurring for a week-the newspapers all said the storm would hit New Orleans last Thursday.
A week to get buses? A week to get fishing boats? Trucks? This is the United States! I read someone who said, “All the people who weren’t bedridden, or had money, or had cars left. The people that are left had none of those things.”
There are people tonight who are going to sleep on overpasses for the fourth straight night. There are prisoners who will do the same. There are people dying at a convention center because no one will tell them that no one is coming for them, and the National Guard is protecting the kitchens. There are police officers who are turning in their badges because they’ve lost everything, have no guidance, and don’t want to be shot by a looter.
There are people tonight inside a concrete domed stadium with holes in the roof and no air conditioning who were told the buses are coming today, and they might, or they might not. There is no food. There is no water. There are bodies floating through the neighborhoods.
In the UNITED STATES.
Some people say that you can’t hold the President responsible for this. Oh, yes you can. Because when he looked over at John Ashcroft after the jets hit the towers and said, “I want you to make sure this never happens again,” it was not meant to be specific to “no more planes hitting large buildings on the East Coast, right, boss.” It was meant that no American should have to run for his life through an American city. While Americans may perish in a senseless, unforeseen disaster, we’d save the ones we could.
And the Cabinet appointees were mushwits and he could barely speak a complete sentence and we’re sending people overseas for God knows how long to help people who are indifferent at worst and hostile at best, but they were going to protect us. In 2004, that’s all a lot of us needed. Well right now, it’s obvious that they can’t.
Ask yourself this: What if Al-Qaeda blew up the levees instead of the hurricane? Would the response have been any different?
No. It wouldn’t. That city flooded in a day. And if it were Las Vegas, I would have been in some operations center watching people try to decide who gets to starve to death and who gets to get on a bus to Los Angeles or Phoenix. And there would be no certainty that I’d be on that bus in time to protect my wife and kids.
But one thing sure would have been different.
They wouldn’t have had a whole week to sort it out and know what’s coming. They were supposed to KNOW this already. It will have been FOUR YEARS next weekend since someone probably said, “Hey, what if…”
And for that, the whole stack of them should be fired.
I’ve had it. I’m done. And if the other bunch of assholes can’t figure out that what’s important is that babies don’t starve to death here (and I’m not talking some metaphorical goo-goo thing with school lunches and welfare, but real, actual starving) and we get people out of harm’s way, we’ll get rid of them too. And so on.
Because this is about leadership, not about bitching on CNN how no one’s in charge, or listening to Peggy Noonan furrow her brow at the Governor’s performance, or bragging that we’ve sent in one National Guardsman for every 200 people, or actually having the audacity to say that “we had no idea the levees would break.”
Today, I saw my country favorably compared to Indonesia and Thailand, (always our traditional benchmarks of infrastructural success) while the elderly die of thirst in the street. We sneered at France when this happened during a heat wave.
No more.”
September 4th, 2005 at 5:22:09 pm
Regarding Chertoff…
Bush nominated him.
Who questioned and approved him?
September 4th, 2005 at 5:26:56 pm
It cracks me up when people call for Bush to resign.
Do you realize who then becomes President?
September 4th, 2005 at 5:31:00 pm
Who said we had to let him back in the country from the big oil shendig in Calgary?
September 4th, 2005 at 5:31:58 pm
Wow and to think your this smart but you chose to become another Shark in the LEGAL profession.
September 4th, 2005 at 5:46:38 pm
It’s incredible. “No one could have predicted the levees would fail.”
What? Eh? What about the constant news supplement articles over the past decade? Pretty much every broadsheet in the UK has commented on this scenario in the past. The National Geographic ran a feature close to the actual hurricane happening. The Washingpost and NOLA also commented on such a scenario.
AND SO DID FEMA ITSELF.
My God, the cynicism of the man in expecting us to swallow such crap is beyond belief. This has been predicted and feared for years. I agree with Brendan, if only for this… this perjury… he should go!
I’m outraged and I don’t even live in the US!
By the way, there were 140 Brit tourists stranded in N.O when Katrina hit. 36 have been accounted for. The UK is sending 500,000 concentrated army ration packs by air to the evac centres. That’s news from us for now.
September 4th, 2005 at 5:59:09 pm
There are lots of targets to blame; I donÃt want to sound like an apologist for the Bush administration because I think there is a good case they blew this. On the other hand:
Standard FEMA emergency response plan is that local governments need to be on their own for the first two or three days. I donÃt think it is FEMAÃs responsibility to determine how Los Angles reacts initially to an earthquake, or to figure out how nursing homes in Kenner will care for their patients in the aftermath of a storm like this.
DidnÃt anyone in New Orleans expect that 25,000 people in the Dome might need food and water for more than a day? Or that the power might go out?
DidnÃt any hospitals or nursing home consider the same- or that they might need fuel for emergency generators for more than 48 hours, or that staff who evacuated tehcity might not be able to get back for their next shift?
Several years ago I was stuck on a plane delayed two hours for mechanical problems. My seatmate got antsy. ìDonÃt they have an extra plane we can use?î Well, no, Delta does not keep a spare 747 standing by. Gov. BlancoÃs Tuesday order to evacuate the city reminded me of this. Where did she expect to get enough buses to take 40,000 people out of town, and where were they going?
The Washington Post this morning says the Bush Administration is blaming the local authorities; (BushÃs quote that ìthe rescue efforts are unacceptableî seems to include FEMA and everyone else.) The Post also says that Blanco has been unwilling to formally allow FEMA to take charge in Louisiana because she is afraid they will blame her. Maybe she has reason to be anxious.
September 4th, 2005 at 5:59:43 pm
Thanks, mcj. That pretty much sums up my feelings.
Whatever the Mayor and Governor did to screw up, the fact is after 9/11 the Federal government was SUPPPOSED to be prepared for this. What if Al Qaeda nuked Los Angeles tomorrow? Would the response be the same? Just a clueless befuddlement and lawyer-ese designed to displace blame. Whatever happened to “the buck stops here?” Does the buck stop at the Mayor and all the others from the President down to the Governor get a free pass? How is that going to make us better prepared for the day Al Qaeda does “get one through?”
Yesterday Brendan said USC’s offense was great but the defense was a little weak. I think New Orleans demonstrates that our nation’s defense is weak to the point of folly.
September 4th, 2005 at 6:02:10 pm
meanwhile mediablog goes after one champion for justice that seems to be on the wrong side after all
New Times Ed Baord (then and now)
our attention must now be on the Gulf Coast’s most immediate needs, the nation will soon ask why New Orleans’s levees remained so inadequate. Publications from the local newspaper to National Geographic have fulminated about the bad state of flood protection in this beloved city, which is below sea level. Why were developers permitted to destroy wetlands and barrier islands that could have held back the hurricane’s surge? Why was Congress, before it wandered off to vacation, engaged in slashing the budget for correcting some of the gaping holes in the area’s flood protection?
Good question. Maybe because Congress listened to the NY Times editorial board in April of 2005:
Anyone who cares about responsible budgeting and the health of America’s rivers and wetlands should pay attention to a bill now before the Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works. The bill would shovel $17 billion at the Army Corps of Engineers for flood control and other water-related projects ó this at a time when President Bush is asking for major cuts in Medicaid and other important domestic programs. Among these projects is a $2.7 billion boondoggle on the Mississippi River that has twice flunked inspection by the National Academy of Sciences… [snip]
This is a bad piece of legislation.
http://media.nationalreview.com/
September 4th, 2005 at 6:03:47 pm
There are lots of targets to blame; I donÃt want to sound like an apologist for the Bush administration because I think there is a good case they blew this. On the other hand:
Standard FEMA emergency response plan is that local governments need to be on their own for the first two or three days. I donÃt think it is FEMAÃs responsibility to determine how Los Angles reacts initially to an earthquake, or to figure out how nursing homes in Kenner will care for their patients in the aftermath of a storm like this.
DidnÃt anyone in New Orleans expect that 25,000 people in the Dome might need food and water for more than a day? Or that the power might go out?
DidnÃt any hospitals or nursing home consider the same- or that they might need fuel for emergency generators for more than 48 hours, or that staff who evacuated might not be able to get back for their next shift?
Several years ago I was stuck on a plane with departure delayed two hours for mechanical problems. My seatmate got antsy. ìDonÃt they have an extra plane we can use?î Well, no, Delta does not keep a spare 747 standing by. Gov. BlancoÃs Tuesday order to evacuate the City reminded me of this. Where did she expect to get enough buses to take 40,000 people out of town, and where were they going?
The Washington Post this morning says the Bush Administration is blaming the local authorities; (BushÃs quote that ìthe rescue efforts are unacceptableî seems to include FEMA and everyone else.) The Post also says that Blanco has been unwilling to formally allow FEMA to take charge in Louisiana because she is afraid they will blame her. Maybe she has reason to be anxious.
September 4th, 2005 at 6:05:11 pm
NOLA had two days before the storm to evacuate everyone who could not get out on their own. For whatever reason they did not. Then the mayor had the nerve two days AFTER the storm to ask why the federal government were not getting them out.
Forget NOLA, if they can not handle their own emergency preparations they should not be allowed to rebuild.
September 4th, 2005 at 6:05:56 pm
Jim B-
You are right. On September 11th, the Feds should have waited until September 14th to stop all air traffic. I understand FEMA had people in New York by the evening of September 11th. That was wrong. They should have waited until Friday. Also, the Feds violated their own guidelines by trying to intercept Flight 93.
You are absolutely correct. Bureaucratic procedure is essential to follow in this post 9/11 world.
September 4th, 2005 at 6:09:00 pm
second-
I hope you feel the same way about Haley Barbour and Mississippi. Building those casinos on the Gulf was idiotic. And where were the buses for poor people in Biloxi? Mississippi shouldn’t get any money either.
September 4th, 2005 at 6:33:56 pm
Everyone appears to be focused on the human tragedy and we should be, but there is a bigger picture here. One of NATIONAL SECURITY. What has befallen NOLA and the Gulf Coast is jeopardizing the USA. Pipelines to the major east coast cities and the nation’s capitol were disrupted. 20-30% of the refining capacity shutdown. The MAJOR PORT of NOLA shutdown. The Port of Mobile crippled. This means the Memphis, St Louis, Minneapolis, the Ohio river and Tennessee rivers have NO outlet to the sea. And we blame the Mayor of NOLA? How simply ludicrous after 9/11.
September 4th, 2005 at 6:39:22 pm
mcj-
I totally agree. Blaming the locals isn’t going to fly. What is upsetting the American people, beyond the deaths, isn’t whether or not the locals planned adequately for the hurricane. It was the complete breakdown of the Federal response and the apparent indifference of the Congress and the President for several days.
The Bush-leaguers see this as a blame game, so they are blaming the NO Mayor and the LA Governor for the loss of life. Most Americans see this as a dress rehearsal for the next Al Qaeda strike, and Bush & Company are failing miserably.
September 4th, 2005 at 6:57:39 pm
The director of the National Hurricane Center says they knew…
http://www.nola.com/newslogs/breakingtp/index.ssf?/mtlogs/nola_Times-Picayune/archives/2005_09.html#076926
September 4th, 2005 at 7:17:50 pm
MadMax,
What amazes me is the tunnel-vision of this administration. You have people in Las Vegas, F**king Nevada seeing themselves in this position! How completely poignant is that? I’d s**t-a-brick if I were in any major metro area watching this, especially if I were black. Who are they kidding?? I’m ashamed and outraged–never again. I’m like Al Gore, I won’t be fooled again!
THIS IS UNACCEPTABLE. AMERICANS DON’T TREAT…(think Gitmo)
Sigh, have we sunk so low??
September 4th, 2005 at 7:50:22 pm
Brendan — when you get a chance, could you put links in this post to other posts/sources demonstrating that the topping would have been worse than the breach? I’m having a hard time understanding that to be the case.
As I understand it, levees function basically like dams … so it seems to me that water flowing over tops of the levees into the bowl of the city is FAR more manageable than if the levees themselves burst, thus allowing the entire lake to rush in at once.
That said, you’ve clearly read and thought about this far more than I, which is why I ask for pointers to the sources. Thanks.
September 4th, 2005 at 7:50:52 pm
Here and here, for starters. Also, here’s a photo simulation showing Jackson Square underwater. As you can see here, this did not occur. Jackson Square is on relatively high ground in the city, but the “overtopping” scenario would have flooded it, whereas this breach scenario did not.
Why? Because the storm surge would have caused the “bowl” to fill up above sea level, rather than merely equalizing the water level with Lake Pontchartrain, and the un-breached levees actually would have held the water in, not allowing it to flow out into the lake and the river. In such a scenario, Step 1 of the recovery would have been intentionally busting the levees to let the water out. But in the mean time, all of those people who were clinging to their rooftops and stuff would have died, because 1) their rooftops would have been submerged by the higher, almost instantaneous flood (i.e., within 2 or 3 hours right around landfall), and 2) their homes would have been destroyed, like all the homes in Mississippi were destroyed, by the wind damage of a direct hit from a Category 4 hurricane (New Orleans only got Category 2 winds at most, according to my understanding).
September 4th, 2005 at 8:12:54 pm
mcj-
I believe every Mayor and Governor, whether Democrat or Republican, are looking at this right now and saying, “I’m not going to be made a scapegoat by these bastards.”
September 4th, 2005 at 8:44:13 pm
Brendan,
Yes. the height of the flood might have been higher in the overtopping scenario, but a breach is still far worse. The question isn’t the height of the flood, it’s what you do after. If it’s just topped, you pump out the water and roll in the emergency vehicles. If it’s breached, you have to fix it first.
Please, please research what a ‘coffer dam’ is. It’s what you need to build if you want to recreate a levee wall in place when the entire area is flooded. You can try to seal the breach with fill, but you can’t do a very good job unless you can get dumptrucks and bulldozers to the site of the breach (we saw some of this years ago when the Mississippi went over it’s banks).
I know you’re not an engineer, but try to understand: A hole in the boat is MUCH worse than some water coming over the sides. One will surely lead to sinking, the other can be solved by a bilge pump. Get it? Email if you want a better understanding. This address is heavily filtered, but I’ll watch it closely for the next couple days and see if you send anything.
September 4th, 2005 at 9:00:22 pm
TomK, the problem is the bilge pumps can’t handle that much of an overflow.
September 4th, 2005 at 9:05:03 pm
For all of those who keep asking why we are blaming Bush for this in addition to Nagin and Blanco, mcj has nailed it.
What happened to New Orleans has enormous implications for national security. The impact on our oil processing abilities and the economic impact alone are enough to question why the government wasn’t better prepared to respond or why the levees weren’t shored up. But what if this had been a terrorist bomb instead of a hurricane? In this case we actually had warning. A bomb? No such luck! Imagine if the Bush administration would have taken this long to respond to a terrorist attack? Would anyone feel that would have been a justified waiting period? Obviously no one expects the government to snap its fingers and have everything go back to normal, but at least, AT LEAST, he should have shown some leadership.
September 4th, 2005 at 10:43:37 pm
David,
It begs the question, “Do you trust Bush with your safety?”
Just look at the pictures. I just can’t hang my head low enough. The UNITED STATES OF AMERICA reduced to third world status. The U.N. HIGH COMOMISSIONER OF REFUGES giving advice to the President of the United StatesÖ.
I am so angry.
(To our government, not to the valiant rescuers)
…And I see no bravery
No bravery…
Only sadness,
Only sadness. –James Blunt
(a simply brillant album)
September 4th, 2005 at 11:08:23 pm
Brendan, your sources as to the damage from the levees being breached vs. topped do not appear to support your thesis.
Consider the following: If the levee is topped, all the water above the height of the levee flows in. If the levee is breached, all the water above the height of the bottom of the breach flows in, unless the lake and the city reach an equilibrium level before then. You can model either being higher.
Joe Allbaugh was a political appointee, but he appeared to understand the danger. Michael Brown did not. Anyone who thinks that water in New Orleans would just drain away knows nothing about the city and never read the briefings. Even if it made no difference, someone that stupid should not hold his job.
Once Nagin and Blanco screwed up the disaster planning (didn’t use the city and school fleet to evacuate and didn’t stock the shelters), it left everyone else in a very bad position. The rescues are an extremely difficult job in any circumstances. Dealing with evacuees should have been handled a lot better by the federal government (does no one at FEMA have TV news on at work to see what is happening?), but those are the fault of local and state government as well - both for poor planning and for not controlling the crowds.
Productive assignment of blame must always begin with the question “What should he have done different?” In the case of blame being pointed at the federal government, much of that blame fails the next question “How was he going to do that?”.
Nick
September 4th, 2005 at 11:44:42 pm
Brendan, your sources as to the damage from the levees being breached vs. topped do not appear to support your thesis.
Nick, look at this NOAA simulation of the levee-topping scenario, the very same worst-case scenario that was being feared on Saturday and Sunday, and compare it to the fact that Jackson Square is currently high and dry. ‘Nuff said.
September 4th, 2005 at 11:48:26 pm
Yes. the height of the flood might have been higher in the overtopping scenario, but a breach is still far worse. The question isn’t the height of the flood, it’s what you do after. If it’s just topped, you pump out the water and roll in the emergency vehicles. If it’s breached, you have to fix it first.
In an overtopping scenario, they probably would have had to deliberately breach the levees in order to save lives in the immediate aftermath, so let the water out. And even if not, the studies called for it to take a very long time to bring in new pumps (since the surge would have submerged all the pumps) and start pumping it all out. It would have taken a VERY long time. That you refer to it as “just topped” indicates you don’t understand the severity of that scenario.
It has nothing to do with me not being an engineer. I read the stories. I know what the scientists and engineers were saying. I’m not hypothesizing based on my own knowledge of engineering — I’m citing what was universally stated by the people who know more about it than you or I, which was that overtopping was the worst-case scenario.
September 5th, 2005 at 2:26:27 am
I’m sorry, Brendan, but I have to say that I feel you’re wrong on this. There is nothing inherently nonsensical about saying that people can be prepared for the worst-case scenario, but not something that wasn’t as bad, when there are multiple ways to define the scale of bad. Overtopping by storm surge would have been a lot worse in terms of the number dead, as you’ve stated yourself. Flooding by way of a broken levee or floodgate results in fewer dead, but it also does make things far more of a logisitical nightmare. For one, as has been pointed out, in a failing rather than overtopping situation, you definitely have to repaire the damage before you can empty the bowl; and while they could have chosen to make additional breaches to let out some water from the overtopping situation, it wouldn’t have been necessary. For another, time becomes a far more critical factor, as there are survivors in the city that wouldn’t be there if the system was overtopped. Taking an additional few days to set up operations means a lot less when there aren’t people to be rescued, and the city will be uninhabitable for weeks anyway. You’re free to state that people should have thought of this situation (particularly from the terrorism angle, though if you do you leave yourself far more open to criticism of 20/20 hindsight), and you’re right that it doesn’t excuse a lot of the statements in the linked article (assuming that CNN’s reporting is accurate–if Chertoff was actually asserting that the scenario of a floodwall failing hours after the eye had passed, then from all the information I’ve yet found he’s correct in stating that such a scenario was not foreseen, as all of the hurricane scenarios I’ve found for New Orleans called for either overtopping the levees or breaking them during the storm itself). None of this is saying that everything’s being done perfectly correctly right now, but I think you’re wrong when you say that it’s “simply not true” that the government did not anticipate what occurred–I honestly don’t think that this scenario was anticipated, and that that’s part of the problem at the moment.
September 5th, 2005 at 11:57:26 am
“Like Brown, his statements on this matter reveal that he is either lying to the public in order to spin the aftermath in the administration’s favor, or else he was and is incompetent. There is no other plausible explanation.”
How’s this for a possibility: Brown and Chertoff are flailing in their attempts avoid naming or blaming anyone local right now for actions not taken. What if everytime they say “we” they are really trying to show solidarity in support of the the “on the ground” decisions (or the delay of them) as to when to evacuate, whether to use buses for those without transportation, when to activate the National Guard, whether to focus on rescue or law-and-order first… in short, for a dozen decisions and non-decisions made by the mayor, the governor, and parish presidents and yes - the residents - throughout the week that only make sense if each of them weighed the risk and determined that the real odds of the levees failing was a gamble worth taking.
I think this is plausible, particularly since it is consistent with the Bush Administration’s history of not “fighting back” by point fingers when accused of anything - but I admit I can’t keep up with everything said and written so I welcome any links to articles that may help me put this to rest one way or another.
September 5th, 2005 at 12:20:43 pm
Perhaps all the plans for the topping of the levys imagined that noone would survive and therefore would not need food or water.
September 7th, 2005 at 2:44:47 pm
Brendan - the video is somewhat of an apples to oranges comparison for the damage. That the levees might be topped does not fix the amount of water that will flow into the city. That video assumes a slow-moving Category 4 hitting New Orleans directly. The speed of travel of the hurricane is a huge factor in determining the amount of water that would be carried over the levees by the storm surge (the slower the hurricane moves, the more prolonged the storm surge is, and the more water would be carried over). I can change the model of the hurricane in ways to maximize or minimize the amount of water carried into the city by topping the levees, and some of these models will result in less overall water remaining in the city post-hurricane than if the levees were topped rather than breached.
As a theoretical matter, the worst possible amount of water would come from a particular situation where the levees were topped, but not breached, and so much water flowed in to flood the entire bowl to the height of the levees. However, that does not mean that a particular instance of topping the levees will result in more water in the city than breaching a levee at a certain spot will.
Nick
August 8th, 2006 at 7:19:23 pm
The End of New Orleans: And The Buck-Passing Begins
Even as thousands remained to be evacuated from the sodden ruins of New Orleans, even as gun battles continued to…